Has Obama started to slip against McCain?
posted at 9:55 am on March 17, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The movement appears subtle, but Gallup notices a shift away from Barack Obama over the past week. For the first time in the cycle, the split between John McCain and either Democrat has shown a different result — and now Hillary Clinton looks slightly stronger than her opponent in the general election. That may provide her with more ammunition for her argument to superdelegates to support her despite the popular vote and pledged delegate split:
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on registered voters’ general election preferences for president finds that John McCain has opened up a slight advantage over Barack Obama, 47% to 44%, while McCain and Hillary Clinton remained tied at 46% each.
Those results are based on interviews with over 4,000 registered voters nationwide conducted March 11-15. This marks the first time since Gallup began reporting these general election results last week that McCain’s relative positioning against Obama and Clinton has not been exactly the same. McCain’s three percentage point advantage over Obama is not statistically significant, and it remains to be seen if the differentiation between the two Democratic candidates, when pitted against McCain, will continue in the days ahead.
The results didn’t exactly look good for Hillary, either. She simply didn’t lose as much ground to McCain as Obama did. Both Democrats started the week with a +2 against the Republican nominee (46-44 Obama, 47-45 Hillary). Hillary ended it in a 46-46 tie, while Obama’s five-point turnaround left him at the short end of a three-point gap.
If Hillary wants to make the electability argument, though, she may find a less-than-receptive audienc. The same Gallup poll that puts Hillary in a relatively better position against McCain has her at a disadvantage to Obama. It has improved since being six points down mid-week, but she trails Obama among Democrats by three points.
Why do Democrats rate her lower than Obama while voters overall give her a slightly better head-to-head performance against McCain? It could be that fewer Democrats will defect if Hillary gets the nomination than will if Obama wins it. That may be another argument for Hillary with the superdelegates in Denver. Which candidate can hold more Democrats in the fold, even if not winning the majority of primary voters overall?
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At this point, everyone has to admit that McCain simply looks more presidential.
jgapinoy on March 17, 2008 at 10:04 AM
Oh what a terrible, tangled web we weave, when first we try to make sense of presidential primary polling numbers.
Immolate on March 17, 2008 at 10:05 AM
Obama is going to get trounced by Hillary in Pennsylvania.
Carville once said that PA is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between.
After the rural and elderly voters get to chew on Rev. Wright and Michelle Obama’s remarks for seven weeks, he’s going to lose by at least 10 points and maybe 20.
There’s no way for the Democrats to untangle this mess and it is good.
NoDonkey on March 17, 2008 at 10:07 AM
Polls at this stage of the presidential race are basically meaningless but may show some short term trends. The results however seem predictable. McCain is overseas acting presidential and demonstrating working relationships with several world leaders. This is in stark contrast to the Dems who are spending time infighting and discussing preachers and makes the point that neither has any real background in anything non domestic.
duff65 on March 17, 2008 at 10:11 AM
How exciting!
It’s like the first day of Fred Thompson’s campaign all over again.
Though I don’t think sneakin’ into the Green Zone dressed as Minnie Pearl could be called “acting Presidential.”
alphie on March 17, 2008 at 10:20 AM
I wonder if Hillary has sent a thank-you card yet to Fox for releasing Rev. Wright’s “sermons?”
irishspy on March 17, 2008 at 10:20 AM
When I see that picture of Hillary, I wonder when the Sith Force-Lightning is going to strike out of her fingers.
Bigfoot on March 17, 2008 at 10:25 AM
Of greater concern is if the liberal geriatric four-time melanoma survivor slips in the shower.
Valiant on March 17, 2008 at 10:28 AM
The Democrat Convention in Denver is going to look like the lions going after the Christians in Rome’s Colliseum.
I’ll start paying attention to the polls after the “non-loser” is selected and the blood has been mopped off of the convention floor.
Of course those polls, showing McCain will trounce the non-loser by default, will never see the light of day.
fogw on March 17, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Obama’s numbers are going to drop quicker than the stock market.
Steve McCullough on March 17, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Wait. wut?
I think you have the wrong thread.
wearyman on March 17, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Because words are the tools of thought, as long as so many black people continue to speak so poorly (as so many do), all other ethnic groups will continue to question those poor speaker’s ability to grasp complex thoughts.
On the other hand, discrimination has abated greatly for articulate blacks in America. If black leaders were serious about improving the lives of millions of blacks, those leaders must lead by example and work to eliminate the duel language standard that exists for blacks and everyone else.
That is the “Change” Obama should be preaching to the Black community. Welfare perpetuates these poor language skills, and untill the black community as a whole overcomes this impedement, sports and entertainment will remain the main channels for black success.
saiga on March 17, 2008 at 10:38 AM
alphie will be in Denver with his can of gasoline and matches. He’s just a little bitter right now, but a good bonfire will cleanse his soul. It’s all good.
a capella on March 17, 2008 at 10:39 AM
The Gallup poll is of “registered voters”. If precedent holds, “likely voters” would trend even more toward McCain.
tgharris on March 17, 2008 at 10:41 AM
I’ve been talking to a few of my
liberalprogressive friends lately and they’re leaning towards McCain too. They hate Her Thighness, and think Glowbama isn’t ready. Plus the subliminal racism (his & theirs) drive them away from Barry H.O.I’d really like to see Johnny Mac & Co. start stumpin for our side in Congress. Its not going to be enough to win the residency. We need Congress back to turn the economy around.
Iblis on March 17, 2008 at 10:43 AM
I haven’t noticed Wright or Obama railing against the rap culture and resulting copycat behavior. In fact, Wright does a fine Ebonics in his sermons when he really is at the top of his game.
a capella on March 17, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Obama’s center of gravity:
The era of new politics &
reconciliationNext shoe will be named Rezko…..
game, set, match….Hillary
moxie_neanderthal on March 17, 2008 at 10:47 AM
McCain is relaxed because he knows all attention is on the two ultra liberals, and who can look the least liberal. None of these numbers means squat until there’s on D and one R to choose from.
tx2654 on March 17, 2008 at 10:57 AM
The fact of the matter is that as more about Candidate Obama comes to light even Senator McCain looks better than Barack does.
TooTall on March 17, 2008 at 11:00 AM
For those occasional moonbats who troll here, just because I want you to hear it from me: This shit is over. Obama will never get close to the presidency, and we owe it all to the screeching nutjub who is his self-described “spirtual advisor”. Barry O has been exposed as an America hating ultra leftwinger.
Just please remember where you heard it first.
Alamo on March 17, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Can somebody photoshop that picture of Hillary to have Senator Palpatine lightning bolts coming outta her fingers? Senator to Emperor, isn’t that her goal?
Tony737 on March 17, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Maybe now it’s time for the talk radio hosts to reverse their previous stand, and push for crossovers to Osama…all in the name of ‘fairness’, of course….
Think_b4_speaking on March 17, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Compared to the racist Obama or the Feminazi Clinton anybody would look presidential.
Go Juan!
Even libs who have been brain numbed by the govt. schools will be able to figure this one out.
Mojave Mark on March 17, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Gallup isn’t the only pollster to notice a shift away from Obama. Rasmussen now has McCain leading both Obama and Clinton by 48-42, and Obama’s unfavorables are over 50%.
As Jeremiah Wright said, the chickenssss are coming home to roost, but the voters have found Obama to be a rotten egg.
Steve Z on March 17, 2008 at 1:55 PM
Maybe Clinton will run as an independent ala Lieberman if she doesn’t get the nomination…
odrady on March 17, 2008 at 3:13 PM
If there is one thing we have learned in this campaign, it is that polls are not to be trusted.
The “messiah” is toast, period. It matters not what he says tomorrow, nor how he says it. He cannot win without the votes of white males.
-And I still hope McCain the RINO implodes somehow between now and September, as, outside if Iraq, I see very little difference between him and Hillary.
Dave R. on March 17, 2008 at 9:21 PM