McCain moves to the lead in Michigan, tied in Pennsylvania
posted at 5:35 pm on March 12, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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So far, the burden of the early clincher hasn’t done much to damage John McCain. In a sign that the increasingly bitter Democratic primary campaign may provide some assistance to the Republican nominee, Rasmussen shows McCain ahead of both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the normally blue state of Michigan. And in worse news, McCain has pulled even in Pennsylvania as well:
In Michigan, John McCain has a very modest advantage over both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during the early stages of Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found McCain leading Clinton 46% to 43% and Obama 44% to 41%.
McCain leads both Democrats by double digits among men and trails by single digits among women. …
Michigan has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in four straight Presidential elections and it would be difficult for Obama or Clinton to reach the White House without carrying the state. However, the economically devastated state has been trending Republican in recent elections—Bill Clinton won Michigan by thirteen points in 1996, Al Gore won by five in 2000, and John Kerry won by just three points in 2004.
In Pennsylvania, the news gets bad for Obama. He had a 10-point lead over McCain a month ago in Pennsylvania as well as the eight-point lead in Michigan. His favorable ratings have dropped nine points, and now he trails McCain by a single point in the Keystone State. The driving forces in PA? Those who believe the situation in Iraq has improved lead those who don’t by 9 points, and in the overall war on terror, optimists outstrip pessimists by 27 points, 52-25.
Michigan looks like it might go for the candidate most palatable to centrists. The youth vote, surprisingly, comes out strong for McCain. While Clinton beats him 54-41 among 18-29 year olds, McCain beats Obama by 56-33. He only trails Obama among Michigan women by seven points, less than the average gender gap for general elections, and he leads among men by 15 points. Interestingly, the data does not include ethnic demographics.
The sharp trend downwards suggests that Obama may have a problem overcoming the harsh campaigning from the Hillary Clinton campaign. If he loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, that takes 38 Electoral College votes that went to John Kerry in 2004 and puts them in the McCain column. If all other states broke out the same as in 2004, McCain would win by over 120 EC votes. It also portends difficulties in other states such as Wisconsin and even Washington, where Rasmussen indicates McCain could be the first Republican since Reagan to contend for the state.
Obamamania appears to have slowed to a halt. McCain can hope that the Democratic primary lasts as long as possible.
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Hillary will make sure of that!
Ordinary1 on March 12, 2008 at 5:37 PM
It’s over, warm up Air Force One. Also, since he’s already ahead in Michigan, no need for phony Romeney. VP Lindsey Graham.
THE CHOSEN ONE on March 12, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Lindsey Graham? Are you high?
Theworldisnotenough on March 12, 2008 at 5:42 PM
while I think Obamamania has peaked and that its only downhill from here - the obama=jesus stuff is going to wear thin very soon and cause his collapse - Obama also peaked for a -long- time prior to the primaries. He was stuck around 10-15% (or so) for months, then all the sudden he rose to where he is now. This is a weird election; and I don’t think we are going to be happy with the winner who ever it is.
This cycle will be remembered as the worst in modern history; mark my words.
lorien1973 on March 12, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Uh, dude? Reality’s calling and it wants to know where you’ve been.
Carter led Reagan coming out of the conventions. It’s 8 months out from the election. The media will attack, many Dems will eventually come together, and Obama can fundraise like no one’s business.
Lindsey Graham? Are you trying to make sure the conservatives McCain has picked up, leave?
amerpundit on March 12, 2008 at 5:43 PM
In a word, yes. I fart in THE CHOSEN ONE’s general direction.
I would not be surprised if McCain picks up some blue states. From a cross-over point of view, he’s a great candidate. He just might win. Unfortunately, once the euphoria of not having the Clinton’s or Globama in the White House wears off, we’ll be left with McCain and most-likely a RINO VP.
NTWR on March 12, 2008 at 5:49 PM
McCain leading anywhere early makes me nervous. I’m so used to Republicns trailing early only to catch up later. McCain out front makes him a big target for the media too.
Nessuno on March 12, 2008 at 5:49 PM
A lot can happen between now and November.
Kini on March 12, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Looking good for McCain and the GOP.
This Democratic sleaze is doing us wonders: more Rezko criminality and Eliot Spitzer type misdemeanors please. Such gifts from the Democratic party won’t continue for ever, but while it does, let’s make hay while the sun is shining.
Pax americana on March 12, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Now it’s McCain’s election to lose?
I hope he pulls his head out and has a good campaign strategy ahead. Going to have to do it without my money though.
Vigilante on March 12, 2008 at 5:53 PM
That’s why I said on another thread, where HRC is behind in popular votes, I want her to keep running. Keep the sparks flying.
cjs1943 on March 12, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Going to have to do it without my money though.
Vigilante on March 12, 2008 at 5:53 PM
He doesn’t take rubles.
THE CHOSEN ONE on March 12, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Conservatives have never supported Maverick, why should he return the non favor?
THE CHOSEN ONE on March 12, 2008 at 5:57 PM
It won’t hurt to have two democrats, one of which will be their party’s nominee, slugging it out for the next six weeks in a general election battleground state.
rw on March 12, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Rasmussen shows that most of the battleground states are likely to be in the midwest, plus PA and VA.
This suggests that economic competence will be a crucial factor in the general, and points to Johnny Mac picking an fiscal strongman for VP above all. Massive spending programs and socialised healthcare don’t look nearly so good when they contribute towards a deeper recession and increased manufacturing unemployment.
There’s still miles to go yet though - and Rasumssen admits that McCain is not yet the favorite, since historical trends are all on the Democratic side.
Pax americana on March 12, 2008 at 6:03 PM
Kini is right that “A lot can happen between now and November.” I sure know I was wrong about the outcome of the two primaries, as was everyone else. The lesson I’ve learned from being wrong is that any prediction based on information available now is completely irrelevant to the future. We should discuss things that we may actually have some insight into and not these silly, pointless polls.
thuja on March 12, 2008 at 6:05 PM
North Carolina has an open primary after Pennsylvania…I encourage a cross over for La Hillary. The only problem is we need a strong candidate for governor, so it’ll be hard to vote for La Hillary.
SouthernGent on March 12, 2008 at 6:11 PM
And it suggests that McCain’s “I have no clue about the economy” will be front and center the whole general election. Nice job McCain.
lorien1973 on March 12, 2008 at 6:13 PM
You’re absolutely right, McCain has no good reason for winning the support of conservatives (social, government, & economic).
Unless, of course, McCain actually wants to be the President of the United States.
If he does want to be POTUS, he’ll need to actually be attractive to conservative voters — not simply less scary than Obama or Hillary — for enough of them to vote for him to be POTUS.
A Republican candidate can not win in the general if he tells the conservative voters that you so openly revile to basically piss off. You may not like it, but it’s the reality of the 2008 American political landscape.
Harpazo on March 12, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Rush Limbaugh smiles.
RushBaby on March 12, 2008 at 6:16 PM
From Obamamania to Obamaphobia? Let’s hope so.
Buy Danish on March 12, 2008 at 6:20 PM
Um let’s see, wait a second, I’m checking something……
Yes….. today is only March 12, 2008.
OK. Just wanted to make sure.
Keep on polling.
In other news, former President Bill Clinton announced today that he is not the father of Britney Spears’ unborn baby.
Indy Conservative on March 12, 2008 at 6:28 PM
It’s probable if Obama is the nominee, although I’d rather not call PA a “blue state”. It’s best described as an “old state”, which is why Obama won’t win it unless the dems really get the vote out in Philly. (and by “get the vote out” I mean “cheat”).
forest on March 12, 2008 at 6:36 PM
Hee Hee Hee
Ha Ha Ha
Ho Ho Ho
I love the smell of my correct prediction in the morning
It smells like…….victory
Get used to the sound of it: President John McCain
As POTUS he’ll probably be Another Bush with a checkered record while following a tortuous path, but there will be Fun every day watching the moonbats seethe and moan and whine while they go after each other with Long Knives
Janos Hunyadi on March 12, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Harpazo on March 12, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Event though I’m not a “conservative”, I think their finest quality will bring them the polls for Maverick. Whether it’s Lindsey Graham, Rudy, or Soupy Sales, conservatives loyalty to country and ideals will make them pull the lever. True conservatives hold this country and it’s principles at such a high standard, that Mav could nominate ME and still show up. Also, both dems are dangerous and delusional.
THE CHOSEN ONE on March 12, 2008 at 7:05 PM
Well, being a Michigander myself, I’m confident that Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick can rustle up at least 1.5 million votes for Obama out of his city’s population of something south of 800,000. If Obama just tells Kwame how many votes are needed, Kwame will make sure that many are, er, cast.
Rational Thought on March 12, 2008 at 7:09 PM
My mother told me that one of the Democratic candidates wants free community college for all NC high school grads. Even a Democrat like her gets that paying for this could be a very bad move. She even understands why. Does this Democratic Euro-Socialist Weenie have a chance to become governor? If so, you’ll really need a good GOP candidate to save the state.
thuja on March 12, 2008 at 7:12 PM
Generation gap alert.
Rational Thought on March 12, 2008 at 7:35 PM
Yes, that would be Richard Moore. I’m sure he plans to give it to illegals as well. The other democrat nominee, our current Lt. Governor, is all about a “green economy”. We just got word today that the nation’s largest chicken procesing plant in Siler City, NC is closing because ethanol demand is making the price of feed go through the roof, so farmer’s can’t afford to feed their livestock, so they can’t send them to slaughter…etc., etc. 1,100 people are losing their jobs because we can’t drill in ANWR or burn coal…which is another “green initiative” from our fair Lt. Governor. No more coal plants in NC! WE MUST BE GREEN. I’m digressing, though.
We have a good shot at the mansion this year. Several democrats are in the pokey for various scandals, and one is about to be expelled from the legislature before his criminal trial. I’m confident. All of our Republican candidates are fair to good. Charlotte’s mayor (Pat McCrory) is the front-runner for now.
SouthernGent on March 12, 2008 at 7:37 PM
What do you think of a McCain/Romney ticket?
Would that bring in some conservatives?
ArmyAunt on March 12, 2008 at 7:53 PM
It’s obviously way too early to pay any attention to McCain vs Dem polls. McCain isn’t even campaigning now–he’s fundraising.
jgapinoy on March 12, 2008 at 8:24 PM
Yes he is, please do not consider him a real McCainiac, he is a troll.
Squid Shark on March 12, 2008 at 9:34 PM
Squid Shark on March 12, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Please notice that a combative Democratic Party race for the presidential nominee could have a parallel in the selection of the Republican Party vice-presidential candidate. That is, whoever becomes the vice-presidential candidate does so at the expense of all the also-rans. So the lead by Senator McCain may be eroded by the fruit juice of sour grapes.
Lamonte Thomas on March 12, 2008 at 10:29 PM
I dont have any sour grapes Lamonte, I fought hard against Romney in the Primary, but I will support him as a VP selection.
Mac/Mittens 08
Squid Shark on March 12, 2008 at 10:31 PM
The Mainstream Media has an awful lot of air time to fill from now until the respective parties’ conventions, and the pendulum is going to swing wildly one way and back the other up until then, perhaps several times.
If the Dems end up with a brokered convention, it will be a wild ride unless they can pull off some miracle to pull the party together and avoid extended litigation, possibly all the way to the Supreme Court. They have already set the precedent for this, thanks to Al Gore, and will not blink at the prospect of doing so again with so much at stake this time. The consultants and lawyers are going to get very, very rich this year.
Beyond the conventions: Look for “Eleventh Hour” tabloid headlines with breaking news and scandals on almost an hourly basis as the going gets rough between the chosen two, plus snags in the process from third party wannabe’s as they crawl yet again out of their dank and musty, moth ridden hidey holes, such as Nader is prone to do. Heck, if Hillary loses, look for her to perhaps pull off a third party run herself, a la Joe Lieberman.
It’s a long, long, long long time between now and November. And it’s shaping up to be the most interesting and amazing Presidential race in my not inconsiderable lifetime.
KendraWilder on March 12, 2008 at 11:49 PM
I agree.
If Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton (her full name) manages to somehow get the Democrat party nomination, I do not expect Obama to “fall in line” and agree to be her VP running mate. In that scenario, I would expect Obama to “revolt” and run as a third-party or write-in candidate.
If Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. (his full name) wins the Democrat party nomination, I do not expect him to choose Clinton as his VP running mate. In that scenario, I don’t know whether Hillary could bring herself to graciously concede or if she would continue to fight and run as a third-party or write-in candidate. In all likelihood, this is Hillary’s one and only shot at the Presidency. I think she wants it too badly to concede.
So we have two distinct possibilities that could lead to both Clinton and Obama running separately in the general election.
Red Pill on March 13, 2008 at 12:13 AM
The following is not likely, but…if Hillary lost the Dem nomination to Obama, and McCain asked Hillary to be his VP, that would scream for a separate Conservative (third-)Party ticket.
Red Pill on March 13, 2008 at 12:18 AM
Red Pill,
You are such a damn freak. I dont know what you are high on but its not even amusing anymore.
I should have figured it out when you thought Huckster had a chance.
Squid Shark on March 13, 2008 at 12:25 AM
Red Pill-
If Hillary asked Ferraro to be her fluffer, well that would scream for a moist towelette.
mylegsareswollen on March 13, 2008 at 3:22 AM
THE CHOSEN ONE is not a troll. He sounds exactly like you Republicans lining up to support McCain.
McCain continues to insult conservatism and you continue to support him.
Valiant on March 13, 2008 at 4:51 AM
Rational Thought on March 12, 2008 at 7:09 PM
That is if Kwame is still around after his indictment for perjury in the whistleblower trial….oh, I forgot, that in
Detroit….never mind
flytier on March 13, 2008 at 8:51 AM
This polling must be making the liberals really uncomfortable, though. This is “their year”, and they are supposed to not only take the presidency in a walk, but also get veto-proof majorities in both houses of congress. They must be thinking, “What the heck is going on?”
Think_b4_speaking on March 13, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Rasmussen seems to have McCain doing surprisingly well against both Democrats in some blue or “purple” states (MI, PA, WA), but running about even nationally. By the law of averages, these results might be hiding a McCain weakness in some “red” states (won by Bush in 2004). It would be interesting to see polls of some states Bush won narrowly (OH, VA, WV, MO, CO, NV, IA) to see whether McCain is weak in any states that matter.
On the other hand, there could be an advantage if the Dems nominate Obama. According to Rasmussen, McCain trails Clinton but leads Obama in NJ. McCain also leads Clinton narrowly in FL but Obama by a blowout.
Steve Z on March 13, 2008 at 1:57 PM