Fred Kaplan: Fallon wasn’t pushed out over Iran
posted at 2:50 pm on March 12, 2008 by Allahpundit
Kaplan knows the military and isn’t inclined to give Bush the benefit of the doubt ever, both elements of which make this compelling. Blackfive and NBC hinted yesterday that his resignation had less to do with him standing in the way of war with Iran than with intangibles. Here’s Kaplan backing them up, coming close but not quite all the way to accusing Fallon of insubordination:
Contrary to the charges of some Democratic lawmakers, this is not another case of an officer’s dissent being stifled. Nor does Fallon’s departure herald a tilt in U.S. policy toward war with Iran…
Last month, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that after the five “surge” brigades left Iraq this July, there would be a “pause” before any further withdrawals would commence. In a Feb. 27 interview with the New York Times, Fallon said this pause would be brief, just long enough to allow “all the dust to settle,” after which the drawdown would resume. Moreover, he said, U.S. strategy would shift—focusing on “supporting, sustaining, advising, training, and mentoring” the Iraqi army, not so much on fighting or providing security ourselves.
In a Slate column the next day, I wondered if Fallon was speaking on behalf of Gates, the administration, or anybody besides himself. I have since learned, from a senior Pentagon official and from a high-ranking Army officer, that he was not. I have also learned that many of Fallon’s statements on policy matters have been similarly unauthorized…
Fallon, who is one of the military’s finest strategic minds, may well be right. Certainly his views match those of many senior officers. But they are contrary to the president’s views, and Fallon knew this. There is much debate within military circles these days over how far, and in what forums, a general or admiral should take his disagreements with political leaders. By most standards, Fallon probably went too far, too publicly. The U.S. Constitution does call for civilian control of the military, and generally, we should be thankful for that.
The big winner: Fallon’s alleged nemesis, Petraeus, who’s more reluctant to draw down in Iraq prematurely than the admiral is and may be in line for Centcom commander himself — which would please the left just fine. Meanwhile, Kaplan ends with a question I asked yesterday myself: If this is all about bomb bomb bomb, bomb bombing Iran, why hasn’t Gates been pushed out too?










Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Let me guess… Admiral Fallon wanted to be the next Gen. Douglas MacArthur and make George W. Bush the next Harry Truman.
HotAirJosef on March 12, 2008 at 3:01 PM
During boot camp, at OCS or whatever, one of the first thing one learns in the military is when speaking to the press, you are speaking for the military as a whole, not for yourself.
We are told to refer questions to a Public Affairs Officer whenever possible and to not comment on our personal policy views.
The same goes for Flag Officers. The Admiral’s personal policy opinions are off limits, while in uniform.
If he wants to resign and then retire, he can be an armchair admiral, but until that time, all military members need to STFU when it comes to voicing their personal opinions on policy to the press.
NoDonkey on March 12, 2008 at 3:02 PM
It sounds to me like Fallon had a run in with Gates not Bush.
bnelson44 on March 12, 2008 at 3:05 PM
This leaves CENTCOM open for Patraeus who can hopefully help Afghanistan back on track.
BohicaTwentyTwo on March 12, 2008 at 3:06 PM
BohicaTwentyTwo on March 12, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Amen
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 3:11 PM
Consequences.
Spirit of 1776 on March 12, 2008 at 3:18 PM
I suggest you all read Fred Kaplan’s book, Wizards of Armageddon, about the history of RAND and its influence of national defense. He’s a fantastic author. It’s just too bad he’s so darn liberal!
Disclosure: Fred is a close family friend.
HebrewToYou on March 12, 2008 at 3:19 PM
US Generals at Odds over Troop Drawdown Tempo (DEBKAfIle) From DEBKA-Net-Weekly 331 Updated 02/11/08 2:13 PM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Washington sources described the strains between the Joint Chiefs, particularly between the chairman, Adm. Michael Mullen and Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey, on one side, and the Iraqi command headed by Gen. David Petraeus and Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, on the other.
Gen. Petraeus predicts the Iraq conflict, far from slowing down in the second half of the US presidential year, will gain in fury just about the time when a new US president takes office. He therefore advises planning cutbacks after the July 2008 beyond the “red line” minimum of 130,000. Mullen and Casey want to hand the security package over to the Iraqi army and other pro-US forces in Iraq, such as Sunni Arab and Kurdish allies much sooner.
Gen. Petraeus is convinced that when all these realities are factored into the Iraq equation – plus the Iranian penetration, the reduction of even the first five American brigades planned for July might be foolhardy. Some might have to be brought back before year’s end.
The generals of the Joint Chiefs argue back that US troops could be trapped in Iraq indefinitely if all the potential paroxysms to which Iraq is prey are taken aboard as Washington’s responsibility.
Their view was supported by US defense secretary Robert Gates who last week pledged to a Senate panel not to incorporate a pledge to defend Iraq in a future accord on US-Iraq relations. “The status-of-forces agreement that is being discussed will not contain a commitment to defend Iraq…” he said.
MB4 on March 12, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Not. If Fallon was actually intelligent he would not have made those comments also he would know that the regime in Iran, their nuke workings and their terrorist military need to be dealt with, swiftly and decisively.
It’s an unpleasant fact.
dogsoldier on March 12, 2008 at 3:30 PM
From the link above to the Petraeus article (January 2008):
lol!
pseudonominus on March 12, 2008 at 3:30 PM
That damned little
haberdasherbaseball-team owner!Frozen Tex on March 12, 2008 at 3:31 PM
From Comments in the link above to the Petraeus article (January 2008):
sigh…
pseudonominus on March 12, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Fallon just could keep his pie hole shut and it cost him! He betrayed the very confidence entrusted to him as a military leader. There is no tolerance for airing personal views which conflict with those of the Commander and Chief in any public venue.
As for those lamenting about Afghanistan, I have two simple questions. Where are you getting your information from and how many independent sources can you site to support your implied contentions that the Afghan campaign is going badly?
dmann on March 12, 2008 at 3:34 PM
dmann on March 12, 2008 at 3:34 PM
who are “those”?
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 3:36 PM
Fallon is a sober, deliberate man. Trust me, none of this was spontaneous.
NoDonkey has it exactly correct. Fallon had an obligation to carry out the policy of the elected government. Instead of shooting off his piehole publicly, he should have tendered his resignation.
MCPO Airdale on March 12, 2008 at 3:37 PM
MB4 on March 12, 2008 at 3:41 PM
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 3:36 PM
Lets go dude!
dmann on March 12, 2008 at 3:41 PM
Vice President Fallon?
Democrats could be looking to reward insubordination.
By Frank J. Gaffney Jr.
Here’s a radical thought: The abrupt resignation Tuesday of the combatant commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral William J. “Fox” Fallon, is not the end of a career but a move calculated to catapult the former naval aviator into the vice-presidential sweepstakes. After all, a military man who has proven himself utterly unserious about the Iranian threat would be perfect running mate for either Senators Obama or Clinton.
The superficial appeal of such a cynical gambit may prove short-lived, however. The more one knows about Admiral Fallon’s conduct as a senior officer in sensitive positions around the world, the more unappealing his candidacy should be. Would any president want on his (or her) team an individual who had engaged in serial acts of insubordination and sabotage of a previous commander-in-chief? Consider just a few of the more public examples of such behavior:
According to a recent, fatuous profile in Esquire, no sooner had Adm. Fallon assumed his previous post as commander of Pacific Command in 2005, than he began an aggressive campaign to establish closer military-to-military ties with China’s People’s Liberation Army. The history of such efforts was replete with examples of the Chinese using these contacts as opportunities to collect intelligence against our forces, while systematically withholding information about their military’s capabilities, prompting many in the Pentagon and Congress to oppose the resumption of these exchanges.
Fallon’s appeasement of Communist China continued in 2006 when, as the Washington Times’s national-security correspondent, Bill Gertz, reported, he “restricted U.S. intelligence-gathering activities against China, fearing that disclosure of the activities would upset relations with Beijing.” Never mind that the PRC is engaged in even more comprehensive and aggressive espionage against this country than that of the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.
The admiral’s assignment to Centcom commander came as a shock to those who had observed what some called his “toxic leadership” in the Pacific Command. Having secured this new posting, he inflicted a similar disfunctionality on the headquarters for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He actively worked against the surge in Iraq and, at every turn, sought to impede Gen. David Petreaus’s implementation of a successful counterinsurgency strategy there. He has acknowledged that he did not forcefully deliver a message from Washington aimed at discouraging Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf from imposing martial law on his country.
Fallon also takes pride in having “banished the term ‘long war’ from Centcom’s vocabulary.” The Esquire puff-piece details how:
[Fallon] believes real victory in this struggle will be defined in economic terms first, and so the emphasis on war struck him as ‘too narrow.’ But the term also signaled a long haul that Fallon simply finds unacceptable. He wants troop levels in Iraq down now, and he wants the Afghan National Army running the show throughout most of Afghanistan by the end of the year.
Then, there is the matter of Iran. Fallon was most clearly in breach of the principle of civilian command of the military as he sought to contradict presidential assessments of the threat posed by the mullahocracy there and to promote his own diplomatic initiatives with Tehran. For example, he told Esquire that Iran could eventually participate in a summit of Persian Gulf chiefs of defense, similar to one he convened earlier this year in Tampa. He also asserted that engagement with Iran is crucial to stop the flow of munitions into Iraq, when every indication is that the Iranians perceive such diplomatic openings as signs of American weakness and lack of resolve, to be exploited wherever possible.
Not least, Fallon opined on al-Jazeera last fall that, “This constant drumbeat of conflict . . . is not helpful and not useful. I expect that there will be no war, and that is what we ought to be working for. We ought to try to do our utmost to create different conditions.” Asia Times carried a report last year that he would resign if ordered to go to war — a sentiment he never denied.
The question is: Will rank insubordination on a scale arguably not seen in a military commander since MacArthur faded away nearly six decades ago be rewarded by still higher office? Will Democratic politicians, so anxious to demean George Bush’s presidency and seek partisan advantage by pandering to the American people’s penchant for ignoring, rather than confronting emerging threats, resist the temptation to embrace Fox Fallon? Or will they seek to burnish their own, woefully inadequate national-security credentials by enlisting this arrogant, short-sighted, and insubordinate officer in a new, and probably even more problematic, political career?
pseudonominus on March 12, 2008 at 3:42 PM
dmann on March 12, 2008 at 3:41 PM
depends, I have friends over in both. They tell me what they can, gotta let them vent when they need to, especially when it comes to mail going to afgahnistan.
As for going badly in afg… I can only base it on what they say. Which also depends on what FOB they are at as well.
… and it is dudette.
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 3:47 PM
Off topic, dudette, but do you know anyone competing in the Arctic Winter Games? We’ve got a bunch o’ Alaskans wandering around town this week. Not that I’m interacting with them, or anything. Just curious.
Frozen Tex on March 12, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Fallon is in the same mode as Wes Clark. He forgets that he is a four-star Admiral and considers himself a quasi-diplomat. In other words, he didn’t stay in his lane when, as a military officer, he started making policy statements about foreign affairs and national security. He should have resigned.
highhopes on March 12, 2008 at 3:56 PM
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 3:47 PM
Copy, my contacts sing pretty much the same song. We are involved in a low intensity conflict which appears to be focusing on giving the Afghans an alternative to totalitarianism manifested by radical Islamists. There will never be a western style democracy as such, but as long as the Afghans reject Islamofascism and understand the consequences of harboring true enemies of the United States, I think we’ve done about all we can do.
dmann on March 12, 2008 at 3:58 PM
Frozen Tex on March 12, 2008 at 3:54 PM
not off hand, but then my friends and I leave active lives. Only ones I would know are some hockey players but they didn’t say they were going anywhere.
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 4:00 PM
dmann on March 12, 2008 at 3:58 PM
the worst FOB by far that I keep hearing from my guys is Orgun E. Anyone who goes there I feel totally sorry for, it is a complete HOLE.
But my guys are all happy… I reenlisted, so I may be out there with them the next round. We will see.
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 4:01 PM
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 4:01 PM
God bless, be smart and a great big Thank you!
dmann on March 12, 2008 at 4:03 PM
Whether it is about Iran or not, I don’t think that Gates would be pushed out. Rumsfeld’s exit was such a big event for the administration’s opponents that if Bush pulled another switch it could cripple his ability to act despite lame duck status. He’s been pretty powerful thus far, but combine a Gates shakeup and that NIE… that equals no action against Iran.
NeoconNews.com on March 12, 2008 at 4:14 PM
Like dmann said, God bless, be smart and a great big Thank you!
At least you’ll be (barely) warmer. Unless you arrive in the summer, in which case you have my apologies. I heard that the first Canadian armoured unit that served there had Leopard tanks without Air conditioning. Nasty!
Frozen Tex on March 12, 2008 at 4:20 PM
There is a specter haunting the debate over Yingling’s article [Article by Lt. Col. Paul Yingling titled “A Failure in Generalship”.] — the specter of Gen. Douglas MacArthur. During World War II, Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower threatened to resign if the civilian commanders didn’t order air support for the invasion of Normandy. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill acceded. But during the Korean War, MacArthur — at the time, perhaps the most popular public figure in America — demanded that President Truman let him attack China. Truman fired him. History has redeemed both presidents’ decisions. But in terms of the issues that Yingling, McMaster [Colonel H. R. McMaster, author of “Dereliction of Duty”, which Gen. Hugh Shelton, when chairman of the Joint Chiefs, ordered all commanders to read.] and others have raised, was there really a distinction? Weren’t both generals speaking what they regarded as “truth to power”?
The very discussion of these issues discomforts many senior officers because they take very seriously the principle of civilian control. They believe it is not their place to challenge the president or his duly appointed secretary of defense, certainly not in public, especially not in wartime. The ethical codes are ambiguous on how firmly an officer can press an argument without crossing the line.
On a blog Yingling maintains at the Web site of Small Wars Journal, an independent journal of military theory, he has acknowledged these dilemmas, but he hasn’t disentangled them. For example, if generals do speak up, and the president ignores their advice, what should they do then — salute and follow orders, resign en masse or criticize the president publicly?
- Fred Kaplan, August 26, 2007
MB4 on March 12, 2008 at 4:21 PM
Frozen Tex on March 12, 2008 at 4:20 PM
Actually the air conditioning likes to go out a lot… I don’t think it matters what armoured vehicle you drive.
F.T. and dmann, thanks for supporting. It is people like yourselves who make us proud! I won’t be leaving right away… few months down the line due to getting squared away. All my guys are excited and I have already lost some friends. But it was time. This summer is going to fly by.
upinak on March 12, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Resign of course.
If you’re heart is not into a course of action and you are in charge of that action, be it a war or be it introducing the Double-Cheezy Dorito chip at Nabisco, resign your position.
You’re at the top. Yeah, the middle managers, etc., soldier on, but seems to me that if you’re in charge of something huge, you resign if you believe it’s the wrong course of action.
NoDonkey on March 12, 2008 at 4:28 PM
I appreciate the fact that Fox Fallon has taken on this very important command.
- George W. Bush (May 2007)
MB4 on March 12, 2008 at 4:33 PM
Please, keep us informed, and even comment form overseas, if possible…
The problem with the (at the time, horrifically outdated) tanks was that they didn’t have A/C at all. We’re now leasing slightly more modern Leopard II’s from Germany. They have A/C… maybe even a cup-holder :D
Frozen Tex on March 12, 2008 at 4:36 PM
HUAH! And after you’ve resigned, then make a very public stink of why you resigned.
Frozen Tex on March 12, 2008 at 4:38 PM
Resigning en masse is great if you are not alone, otherwise you look like a lone nut.
BohicaTwentyTwo on March 12, 2008 at 4:39 PM
MB4 – Admiral Fallon, and anyone in the military, can question policy in private. It’s when you start spouting off your personal opinions, that contradict the political leadership, to the press, you’ve stepped over the line.
MCPO Airdale on March 12, 2008 at 4:42 PM
…be Jesus, my fine feathered B22, the good “General Pet” has his hands full in Iraq…?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2008/03/middle-east-fal.html
“No d[e]fferences emplied; however differences indeed…!
Would you reccomend a promotion…?
J_Gocht on March 12, 2008 at 4:55 PM
Fallon was also derisive of Iraqi leaders’ intentions and competence, and dubious about the surge. “He’s been saying from Day One, ‘This isn’t working,’ said a senior administration official. And Fallon signaled his departure from Bush by ordering subordinates to avoid the term “long war” — a phrase the president used to describe the fight against terrorism.
To Bush aides, Gates did not seem fully on board with the president’s strategy, either. As a member of the congressionally chartered Iraq Study Group before his selection to head the Pentagon, Gates embraced proposals to scale back the U.S. presence in Iraq. Now that he was in the Cabinet, he kept his own counsel.
But he consulted regularly with former national security adviser Brent Scowcroft, a noted critic of the Iraq war; told Army audiences privately that a troop decrease was inevitable; and tried to avoid Sunday talk shows during the fight over the war spending bill to preserve relations with lawmakers, according to administration sources. “With Fallon, it’s pretty much in your face,” said a senior official. “Gates is quieter.”
A Pentagon official said Gates is “very concerned about all of our energy” being devoted to Iraq, an “overcommitment that is consuming and distracting us from everything else. On the other hand, he knows there can’t be another Saigon. There’s this balance.
He was not the only skeptic. More than half a dozen retired
four-star generals turned down Hadley in his search for a “war czar” who could knock heads and make sure requests from the field survived the Washington bureaucracy.
- 9 Sep 2007
MB4 on March 12, 2008 at 4:59 PM
Yeah, just like Spitzer – can’t blame Bush or Cheney or Rush. He just “F”ed up himself, like a bird shitting in his own nest…
jimbo2008 on March 12, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Because he is winning? Maybe?
Kinda silly for Petraeus to want to quite while he is winning. IMHO.
Lawrence on March 12, 2008 at 5:41 PM
Now you tell us…
A Pentagon official said Gates is “very concerned about all of our energy” being devoted to Iraq, an “overcommitment that is consuming and distracting us from everything else. On the other hand, he knows there can’t be another Saigon. There’s this balance.
He was not the only skeptic. More than half a dozen retired
four-star generals turned down Hadley in his search for a “war czar” who could knock heads and make sure requests from the field survived the Washington bureaucracy.
- 9 Sep 2007
MB4 on March 12, 2008 at 4:59 PM
J_Gocht on March 12, 2008 at 6:21 PM
Every time I see strife like this, in this day of near instant info, I wonder if it’s not another case of DIS info. Probably not but don’t count it out. It’s probably what it appears to be.
upinak, u go grl. thanks
jerrytbg on March 12, 2008 at 6:42 PM
Unlike most servicemembers, Admiral Fallon had the opportunity to have an audiance with the highest level government officials, and in that forum was free to speak his mind. Esquire magazine was the wrong place and the wrong time.
Nothing but respect for the man and his service. But the role of the military is to carry out the policy of the elected civilian government.
Hog Wild on March 12, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Hog Wild…
Thats why he’s laid his stars on the desk…!
Can’t swallow the CIC’s regursatation of mucus…!
J_Gocht on March 12, 2008 at 7:24 PM
Kaplan’s a smart guy, extremely well-read and researched in military matters (though never has served, nor even been in a war zone as a reporter; his column title of “War stories” is a big joke). Just don’t count much on his predictions; as I’ve documented before, his record for that is far from stellar.
And there is no question he hates Bush with a passion and I imagine he doesn’t think much of McCain either.
michaelo on March 12, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Fallon was opposed to the surge and knocked heads with Petraeus from the onset.
Captain America on March 12, 2008 at 9:38 PM
Since there is no proof (nor should there be) the Petraus is a Republican, than this would be a risky proposition, no.
Remember how Stormin Norman became a horrid RINO when he endorsed McCain. What about Powell (gasp) a moderate.
Squid Shark on March 12, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Fallon is a true putz. When he was PACOM Commander, he invited top Chinese military brass to swarm all over the insides of Pacific Fleet Navy ships on which most US citizens will never set foot.
Michael Savage called out Fallon in a big way on his talk show while Fallon was still PACOM Commander — and before he was anointed as CentCom Commander — a position he never should have been given.
Now, after Fallon showed his willful ways, publicly expressing Democratic talking points in open defiance of his Commander-in-Chief, he has been — thank the LORD — been unceremoniously canned.
I pray that either a soldier or a Marine is appointed the new CentCom commander: as Iraq and Afghanistan are pre-eminently ground wars — and the only Navy pilot we need in that job is one that is ITCHING to strike Iran (something precisely that Fallon is not).
sanantonian on March 12, 2008 at 10:46 PM
Fallon kept the Chinese Navy checked at every turn, quietly reasserting our relationships with other Navy’s keeping them out of Chinas pocket. The Chinese saw the same crap you see when the public goes onboard a ship during Fleet week.
The fact that you listen to that gasbag and take him seriously says alot.
Fallon was in that post for Iran, a war that will most sertainly be pre-eminently Naval, if it happens.
Yeah because thats what you want in a military commander, someone itching to attack. That is the LAST thing you want, you want a measured and considered commander that will act when necessary and make good decisions.
Squid Shark on March 12, 2008 at 11:40 PM
pseudonominus on March 12, 2008 at 3:42 PM
I dunno… Comparing Fallon to MacArthur is overstating Fallon’s public popularity & warfighter cred. More apt would be comparing him to Wesley Clark – both “fired” for insubordination and undue cockiness — offhand, ironic that they both gravitated to donk politics.
Put another way, sorta like cHillary fancying herself as POTUS & Ubambi as her VP required the willing suspension of disbelief even as she trails him on all the vital numbers. Yet, that either Bozos would consider either Clark or Fallon as potential VP or high level Cabinet, ie SoS or SoD, as a way of gaining votes in Nov is equally ludicrous.
Hmmm, we should do more to encourage this delusion. Bwahaha…
AH_C on March 13, 2008 at 1:44 AM