WaPo poll assumes 55% Democrats, 15% unregistered vote
posted at 12:25 pm on March 6, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The Washington Post reports that their new poll shows John McCain trailing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton — a result that contradicts Rasmussen’s polling this week. Instead of showing a five-point lead for McCain, the WaPo survey has Obama up by 12. How can that be? It helps to have a huge oversample of Democrats and a lot of unregistered voters (via Jim Geraghty):
Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) leads McCain, who captured the delegates needed to claim the Republican nomination Tuesday night, by 12 percentage points among all adults in the poll; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) holds a six-point lead over the GOP nominee. Both Democrats are buoyed by moderates and independents when going head to head with McCain and benefit from sustained negative public assessments of President Bush and the war in Iraq.
Well, let’s take a look at that sample, shall we? It consists of 1126 adults, 15% of which are unregistered. That puts registered voters at 957. That’s enough to skew the sample, at the very least making its predictive value useless. Most reliable pollsters use registered voters for their entire sample, and the most predictive narrow that down to likely voters.
That’s not the only problem in this poll. Party identification breaks down 40/28/28 for Democrats, Republicans, and independents, respectively. Rasmussen’s party identification surveys show a much different breakdown for the population: 38.7/33.1/28.2, which halves the gap shown in WaPo’s survey. The survey then asks how the independents lean, and winds up with almost a 20-point gap between Democrats and Republicans — 55/36/7.
Didn’t anyone at the Post look at these numbers and wonder whether that reflected the nation as a whole, or perhaps a bias in sample collection?
The result is an unreliable poll, but one hell of a headline. McCain trails by twelve! And when McCain beats Obama or Clinton, we’ll hear once again that the election had to have been stolen — because all of the polls showed McCain behind.
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And when McCain beats Obama or Clinton, we’ll hear once again that the election had to have been stolen — because all of the polls showed McCain behind
In that case…skew all polls! He-He-he!
kcd on March 6, 2008 at 12:28 PM
If McCain wins, which is a good possibility, the world will need global-therapy. There’s no couch big enough.
Entelechy on March 6, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Next to the New York Slimes, does anyone even pay attention to what the Washington (Com)Post has to say anymore these days? I would rather spend the rest of my life in the front row of a Barry Manilow concert than I would even reading a single trashed-out paragraph from either rag.
pilamaye on March 6, 2008 at 12:30 PM
McCain’ll have Secret Service, but I don’t know if that’s enough to keep Oprah’s hands off of him.
emailnuevo on March 6, 2008 at 12:30 PM
You’re sick.
emailnuevo on March 6, 2008 at 12:31 PM
some bad news, the latest Ras. poll on party ID has the Dems jumping to over 41%
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends
could be reps registering Dem for primary though?
jp on March 6, 2008 at 12:31 PM
Captain,
I sense frustration.
Good post. I’ll keep on dreaming that every poll spit out on the national networks includes the sampling method. Maybe…someday…
Limerick on March 6, 2008 at 12:35 PM
Dem identification lead in 2004, too. Granted, the margin was a bit smaller.
amerpundit on March 6, 2008 at 12:38 PM
There is a point being missed here. Skewing the sampling or analysis has an effect on the electorate, for the same reason that eastern time zones should not report national election results before polling places close in the west. Opinion polls influence how people vote because it is human nature to want to be voting for a winner and not a loser. These media outlets know this.
percysunshine on March 6, 2008 at 12:47 PM
70% of the sample are Dems or unregistered tweekers??
Dude.
Mike D. on March 6, 2008 at 12:48 PM
very true, it makes the electorate think its “ok” to vote for the Dems, because they must be more ‘popular’ judging by the polls.
I think this same game has alot to do with bush’s poll numbers. They started this game in 2005, they’d have regular “lead stories” on bush’s poll numbers which were based on skewed samples. eventually it worked to some degree. Now you don’t see these stories anymore.
the GOP would have little problem being the majority party in Washington if not for the media, IMO.
jp on March 6, 2008 at 12:50 PM
Of course not.
The WaPo is only interested in getting the unfavorable McCain message out to the sheeple. Repeat it, over and over and over again. Doesn’t have to be true, doesn’t have to be fair, just get it out there. Let the other papers pick up the story nationwide. Have them repeat it too. Like a sunami, the story saturates the minds of the mindless.
After a week, it’s true baby!
It’s an old strategy, but it works like a charm.
fogw on March 6, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Polls generated by the leftist media are designed to influence rather than inform. They’re mathematical garbage and are absolutely irrelevant.
rplat on March 6, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Seems to me they are hiding one of the poll questions:
Are you coming to work tomorrow?
Dusty on March 6, 2008 at 1:06 PM
I noticed little media and left blog reaction to the Rasmussen numbers, yet they’re kvelling over this and the one you dissected last week. Ah well, when they’re convinced they’re going to win, the letdown is much more amusing to behold.
JammieWearingFool on March 6, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Yes, that’s correct. BUT – THEY ARE EFFECTIVE in that sheeple want to be with the winner, so change their vote to get on the winning side.
This is WHY public education is so poor…a stupid population is easier to control. Does anyone doubt that it’s working?
JustTruth101 on March 6, 2008 at 1:08 PM
I ain’t going that far, at least not yet.
funky chicken on March 6, 2008 at 1:24 PM
I can think of so many Poles that are actually useful. Like Flagpoles, Firepoles, Washpoles, hell I even throw in the North and South Poles. But People Polls? Useless….
soulsirkus on March 6, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Of course. They still wonder how they managed to find that many Republicans, since no one they know is one.
Physics Geek on March 6, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Cap’n Ed, are you saying that MSM polls are full of, er, assumptions?
jimbo2008 on March 6, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Why should it be shocking that the WaPo poll included 15% of unregistered adults? They’ll just get registered by ACORN people the day before Election Day, using the address of the nearest nursery school, park or graveyard, then vote for Democrats on provisional ballots. If their votes get thrown out by state authorities, Democrats will scream and yell to the media that McCain stole the election, and Count! Every! Vote!
Oh, by the way, how many felons were in the WaPo sample?
Steve Z on March 6, 2008 at 2:58 PM
You are absolutely correct.
I only have two words to add: Bandwagon Effect
marybel on March 6, 2008 at 2:59 PM
As far as I can see, political polls can be divided into two groups: (1) Rasmussen polls and (2) garbage. Note to Scott Rasmussen: that’s a compliment!
Steve Z on March 6, 2008 at 3:05 PM
That Rasmussen poll might have showed an uptake in the number of people saying they consider themselves Democrats, but the generic Congressional vote is only +4 for Democrats which is less than it was in 2006. All these polls have contradictions.
I think the poll is intended to generate headlines. The media will all be talking about this today and that is the point. needless to say time will tell what the people really think.
Terrye on March 6, 2008 at 5:00 PM
Something else I noticed about the Wapo poll is that it fails to take into account Obama’s loosing steam among Democrats. Gallup has Clinton ahead of Obama now as well.
I think maybe WaPo sampled too many people who talk big but do not actually vote.
Terrye on March 6, 2008 at 5:09 PM
I hope that’s a rhetorical question. Of course they looked at those numbers, and then proceeded to say, “Looks cooked enough for a headline.”
steveegg on March 6, 2008 at 9:06 PM
There’s just one thing to say about this:
NATIONAL POLLS ARE MEANINGLESS!
Come on Hot Air, you have to point this out every time there is a national poll done on the presidential election. Al Gore’s 500,000 popular vote lead in the 2000 election should be a bit of a reminder of that. We elect our president with electoral votes, not the popular vote, making national polls like this for, yes, baaaaah. The sheep.
Seixon on March 7, 2008 at 3:57 AM
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