Exit polls: Did race win it for Hillary?
posted at 10:15 am on March 5, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | regular view
Here’s Texas, where she won by only three:
And … here’s Ohio, where she won by 10:
I.e. race was worth 12 points to her overall and eight to Obama, for a net to Her Majesty of +4. Fair comparison, though? His “racist” supporters may be motivated by the possibility of a black president being able to improve race relations; doubtless he has his prejudiced fans too, starting with the kindly old pastor pal of his, but surely some percentage is voting less because they’re pro-black or anti-white than pro-postracial. It’s harder to make that same case for Hillary. Add in the fact that the exit polls were bound to have lowballed the number of people for whom race mattered, as some simply won’t cop to it, and you’ve got some tasty nuance.
As a control group, here’s the race question in two previous primaries. First is Massachusetts, where she won a contest that could have gone either way; for a state that’s supposedly so notoriously racist, her numbers here are lower than in Texas and Ohio. And second is Missouri, where Obama won by a single point — a margin that’s almost accounted for by the net here. Funny how we didn’t hear much about that on Super Tuesday. Exit question via Karl: How come Hillary’s whopping margins on the gender question don’t qualify as a “reverse sexist” vote? Are her supporters “pro-postgender”?
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages:
I’d urge you to let the dems obsess over race.
funky chicken on March 5, 2008 at 10:21 AM
One post = obsession?
Allahpundit on March 5, 2008 at 10:22 AM
I’d urge you to ENCOURAGE the Dems to obsess over race.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on March 5, 2008 at 10:25 AM
AP, one post-obsession…new math of the uneducated.
each post=poke in eye…the right math.
right2bright on March 5, 2008 at 10:26 AM
Dirty Fact: both Race and Gender matter in American politics.
Dirtier Fact: Race is more important than Gender
Dirtiest Fact: Democrats are not as nuanced as they portrayed themselves to be.
natesnake on March 5, 2008 at 10:27 AM
I’m just waiting for the mainstream media to adopt the story line “Is America Ready For An African American President?”
Time or Newsweek will likely do an entire issue in which they trace minority representation/political disenfranchisement. There will be justly moving photos and stories which will be more explicit than the underlying subtext of the campaign thus far. Tapping into residual feelings of white-guilt may actually help drive folks to the polls…so as to assuage our collective guilt.
If Obama is defeated (for whatever reason) I suspect we’ll be treated to its binary cousin, namely “America is not yet ready.”
moxie_neanderthal on March 5, 2008 at 10:28 AM
A black vote for Obama or a female vote for Hillary is empowerment. A white male vote against either is sexism/racism. I wanna be Oprah!
You’re white, right? You’re a racist if you mention it at all. And whatever you do, no cartoon monkey references…even if you’re talking about Hillary. Unless you’re talking about Bu$h, because everyone already knows he’s a chimp.
Pablo on March 5, 2008 at 10:28 AM
Maybe . . . but after listening to Laura this morning it could be that Republicans won it for Hillary. She talked to a number of Texas crossover Republicans and indicated that there were nearly 30,000 Republican crossover voters in one Ohio county. Perhaps Hillary’s “vast right wing conspiracy” gave her a present.
rplat on March 5, 2008 at 10:31 AM
I have to give Hillary some credit for taking some hard shots at Obama’s experience level. The Clinton Advertising blitz surely helped to stop the bleeding.
The exit polls speak volumes regarding the race aspect:
“Hi, I’m a white liberal. I love black people. I voted for Obama.” *fingers crossed behind his back*
natesnake on March 5, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Gee, why is this such a big issue? I thought Bubba Billy was the First Black President.
pilamaye on March 5, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Obama has made race an issue.
Even liberal states like California and Michigan have rejected affirmative action programs when allowed to vote directly on the issue, so this may reflect some of that sentiment – and who can blame them?
Buy Danish on March 5, 2008 at 10:40 AM
I don’t want Obama to lose because of his race (Arab),
but I want him to lose. He is such a grave threat to the freedom and strength of our country, that I will not worry too
much why somebody chooses to vote against him.
I’d rather his jiving and lying and overall stupidity be seen
and be the cause of his defeat, for those three major defects
are there in spades, but as long as he loses, I won’t spend
too much time agonizing over why.
davem on March 5, 2008 at 10:47 AM
I think we’ll find out just how much race and sex matter to American voters if we end up with a woman and a black on the same ticket. Personally, I don’t think the country is ready for that.
Add to the mix the fact that they are both commie socialists hell bent on bringing down America and capitulating to our enemies. Half the country will reject them outright for that alone, forgetting about skin color and gender.
fogw on March 5, 2008 at 10:47 AM
The Obamess is making it painfully clear that this race is all about race.
Can you feel the pride yet?
drjohn on March 5, 2008 at 10:48 AM
Race works both ways.. how many blacks voted for BHO just because he is black ? (1/2 black)
redrock on March 5, 2008 at 10:48 AM
This just in from CBS:
NEW YORK (CBS) ― Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton hinted at the possibility of a Democratic “dream ticket” with Sen. Barack Obama.
Speaking on “The Early Show” on CBS, Clinton said “that may be where this is headed, but of course we have to decide who is on the top of the ticket.”
Clinton said the race between her and Obama remains “incredibly close,” with just “smidgens of difference” between them in both the popular vote and number of delegates.
Exit questions: First, does anyone here think such a match-up is possible? Second, if a Clinton/Obama team is formed, will it successfully unite the Democrat party? Third, if the answer to the first and second questions is “yes” does McCain have a snowball’s chance in hell this November?
NemoParticularis on March 5, 2008 at 10:49 AM
This burns me up. It is the vocal part of black America, and the Democrat party that makes the color of one’s skin or gender a positive or a negative. Martin Luther King would be a disappointed old man– and not in white America!
I am voting for a white male Republican because I feel he has the best chance of uniting the races and genders because he comes from the least racist and sexist group in our society. As another commenter put it somewhere else today, liberal women are throwing blacks off the bus.
JiangxiDad on March 5, 2008 at 10:51 AM
I’m definitely not. They both have a long history of discrimination against white males.
JiangxiDad on March 5, 2008 at 10:52 AM
Of course he does. Even a united Democratic party can be beaten if they are fought hard and kicked to the curb. Anybody that doesn’t think the Republican Party can win this November might as well turn in the jocks (figuratively speaking) and move to a neutral country.
rplat on March 5, 2008 at 10:55 AM
AP,
Thanks for the link.
1. I think it’s funny that people were not screaming about race when HRC was winning in northern states this way through Super Tuesday;
2. Massachusetts is probably not a great “control” state. HRC may do well there because people have soured on the Axelrodian hopeyness and changitude of Gov. Partick.
Karl on March 5, 2008 at 10:55 AM
Wait a minute….Obama is black??
manfriend on March 5, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Patrick. Duh.
Karl on March 5, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Yeah, saw that too. Olive branch?
Race…..as other commenters have said the effect runs both ways. From my insulated, middle class, white, Texan neighborhood it appears to be more ‘he is black = gets my vote’ then the other way around. But I’m from a ‘notoriously racist’ state, so nevermind what I said.
Limerick on March 5, 2008 at 10:57 AM
According to the exit polls in Texas, blacks voted in favor of Obama 91% to 9% for Clinton.
Race is an issue, all right. Enough said.
Matticus Finch on March 5, 2008 at 10:58 AM
welcome back, pablo.
you’re kidding, right?
shooter on March 5, 2008 at 11:01 AM
It would be a very tough ticket to beat. That’s the downside to crossing over for Hillary…..I’m not sure she would accept the VP spot, but Obama might.
Look, the race problems within the democrat party bring special joy to the Hee Haw Damiens of the world. I just don’t care to associate myself with them, that’s all.
funky chicken on March 5, 2008 at 11:04 AM
I too am a Texan, but not the same Texas you’ve defined.
rplat on March 5, 2008 at 11:05 AM
Sorry. Should have added the snark at the end.
Limerick on March 5, 2008 at 11:07 AM
Just setting up the premise, shooter. ;-)
Pablo on March 5, 2008 at 11:08 AM
Shirley the way to avoid this disenfranchisement horror is to count the Michigan/Florida delegates in the nomination battle. Just to be sure, I mean.
a capella on March 5, 2008 at 11:10 AM
In American politics maybe, but not much that I’ve seen on the Republican side. Ideology trumps race and gender for Republicans, easily. McCain ought to be saying that loud and clear, but he won’t.
JiangxiDad on March 5, 2008 at 11:10 AM
Why is the left so fixated on race? Turn on CNN… race, race, race. Turn on CBS… race, race, race.
Turn on Fox… substance, substance, substance.
Seems to me that the left has a race problem.
madmonkphotog on March 5, 2008 at 11:12 AM
and I, the assist.
shooter on March 5, 2008 at 11:13 AM
I really don’t think race or gender is a big enough deal to keep someone out of office in American politics anymore. The only reason a minority or a woman hasn’t been elected President is because there hasn’t been a viable candidate. Of course, there are some people who would never vote for a black person or a woman regardless, but I don’t think they carry enough weight to have a serious effect. But maybe I’m just idealistic.
JS on March 5, 2008 at 11:15 AM
Put Michael Steele on the ticket w/ McCain. He is quite viable….then Steele in 2012 or 2016!
shooter on March 5, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Seems like a smart friendly guy from his tv appearances, but others have pointed out that he’s not particularly conservative.
JiangxiDad on March 5, 2008 at 11:24 AM
I’m still boggled as to why african americans feel the need to support the democrat party that didn’t want to include them as first-class citizens until they found it politically viable and profitable.
Why do people seem to forget the negatively disproportionate civil rights legislation voting record of the democrat party senate and congressional members of JFK and LBJ compared to that of the republicans?
geckomon on March 5, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Why not? Aren’t they as dumb as most voters?
JiangxiDad on March 5, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Next to McCain, Steel looks like Pat Buchanan. I saw someone mentioning that he’s pro-amnesty, but he’s not.
I’d be quite comfortable with Steele a heartbeat away from the WH, and I think it would be a great ticket.
Pablo on March 5, 2008 at 11:55 AM
Thanks for that. I was thinking about the immigration issue when I made that comment. Happy to be wrong about him because I like him too.
JiangxiDad on March 5, 2008 at 11:58 AM
No, I think you are like most conservatives. We do not make our decisions based on race, sex, or other identifiers. Something liberals are incapable of doing. I say that as a recovered liberal who drank that koolaid at one point in my life. I realize now how incindiary and evil political correctness really is. Groupthink is the downfall of our country and what liberalism is founded upon.
ihasurnominashun on March 5, 2008 at 11:58 AM
This reminds me of an episode of 30 Rock last fall, when Tina Fey’s character said, “I’ll tell my friends I support Obama, but I’ll really vote for John McCain.” I think there could be a lot of that in November.
doppelganglander on March 5, 2008 at 12:01 PM
I actually like J.C. Watts more than Steele. My dream ticket was Fred! and J.C. what an amazing prospect for the transformation of the Republic to its former glory!
ihasurnominashun on March 5, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Well said. I agree with every word. I was a liberal when I was young but didn’t know what I was doing. As such, I often “excuse” young people for their errors. Others, not.
JiangxiDad on March 5, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Anyone who voted for Osama because he is black would never admit it.
Labamigo on March 5, 2008 at 12:33 PM
I was never afflicted in that way. You and the Professor have this in common. Glad for both of you, and us :)
Entelechy on March 5, 2008 at 1:42 PM
I don’t know about that. Also note the groups on the right…
Buy Danish on March 5, 2008 at 1:59 PM
America is the best country in the world. Even the poorest Americans are blessed with the greatest opportunities and often more freedom than many wealthy people elsewhere.
****
The problem with my team is that whenever we try to pin something on the Dems, it sticks to us. With regards to race, that is because most conservatives have trouble expressing cogent, sane and rational racial ideals without dipping into their personal well of prejudice.
Obama’s church, Hillary’s pandering are both fair game. But when you try to completely rewrite history to suggest that blacks historically discriminated against whites, you cross the line.
That is the type of comment that will prevent Republicans from ever getting over their own racial problems. We constantly try to pin this on “them.”
Clearly any idiot suggesting that white men are more historically discriminated against than women or blacks is lying, stupid or in denial.
Every generation of my family has been terrorized by racist white bigots. My mother and father, both highly educated professionals, lost friends and were personally harmed by racist violence.
I have been called “nigger” to my face and behind my back. I have been threatened with deadly violence because of my race. Half of my family is white, and at least half of my friends are.
None of my white friens or family have endured as much outright bigotry. There has never been a place that I have visited or patronized which would not allow whites. Whereas I have twice been asked not visit certain establishments because I am black.
None of the unfortunate racism I’ve encountered makes me love my country any less. Actually, these experiences illuminate the great lengths many, if not most, Americans would go to eschew and reject racism. That goes for Democrats and Republicans.
The problems arise when we get our hackles up. People stop using logic and begin to react emotionally.
***
It’s only natural for their to be some backlash on the part of white male Christians against the current tide of PC. A lot of people seem try to act as if they are not being reactionary, when it is both obvious and expected that they would.
White Americans have a tragically integral role in our country’s darkest periods as well as our brightest. The guilt from those darker days has made it very difficult for some people to function free from that guilt. Some people repress it. Others totally deny its existence.
I don’t think contemporary whites should feel any more guilty about slavery than contemporary blacks do about being sold by Africans to America, Spain, etc. I do think that many Americans are so sharply affected by their personal guilt that it causes them to lash out.
Until there is an honest acknowledgement and understanding about the impact of slavery, Jim Crow, lynching, and being called “nigger” enough to make you question your worth, by all Americans, no American will be free from the guilt and/or pain.
We need to get over comparing our party’s roles in the past and make the Republican party the party of America’s bright future.
//lunch, no edit, sorry for typos and hanging prepositions
***
correction:
I do have a friend who is Serbian that lost family in what used to be Yugoslavia. He is white…I guess.
***
I think there are many Republicans who secretly voted for Obama precisely because he is black…and because John McCain is about as exciting as a toejam sandwich.
The Race Card on March 5, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Comment pages: