Ukraine: We may skim off the pipe
posted at 1:30 pm on March 4, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Ukraine has had a running conflict with Russia since the Orange Revolution pushed the former Soviet republic closer to the West. Gazprom, the state-owned natural gas producer in Russia, has occasionally threatened to cut off its supplies to Ukraine, even though the nation acts as a conduit to Gazprom’s European customers. After its latest action against Ukraine, they have responded by threatening to cut off Europe:
Ukraine’s natural gas company on Tuesday warned that if Russia further cuts its gas supplies, it could begin diverting shipments intended for western Europe.
Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom on Monday reduced shipments to Ukraine by about a third and on Tuesday threatened a further 25 percent cut if Ukraine did not resolve a dispute over debts and contracts by the evening.
Much of the gas that western Europe buys from Russia comes in pipelines that cross Ukraine. Gazprom has promised that gas destined for Europe would not be affected by the dispute.
But Dmytro Marunich, a spokesman for Naftogaz, Ukraine’s natural gas company, said the company “reserves the right to resort to adequate and symmetrical measures to defend the interests of its consumers.”
Only about one-quarter of the gas imported by Ukraine is of Russian origin; the rest comes from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in pipelines controlled by Gazprom. By raising the reduction above one-quarter, Gazprom apparently would be cutting the Central Asian gas as well as Russian-origin gas.
Gazprom wants to cast this as a collections issue, but few actually believe that. Gazprom’s CEO, Dmitri Medvedev, just won election to the Russian presidency, and his predecessor used Gazprom to punish Ukraine in the past. Vladimir Putin used to arrange these interruptions in supply at times when he wanted to impress on Ukraine leader Viktor Yushchenko how unhappy Russia would become if Ukraine continued drifting out of Moscow’s political orbit.
Even the collections piece has political origins. While Ukraine remained friendlier to Moscow during the Leonid Kuchma regime, Gazprom gave Ukraine “friend” pricing for its energy supplies. After the Orange Revolution, Gazprom attempted to impose a four-fold increase in the gas price, which led to Ukraine’s first siphoning project. That pricing dispute has never been fully resolved. An agreement between Yushchenko and Putin last month supposedly ended the dispute, but Ukraine’s Naftogaz has not yet formally agreed to the deal.
Europe will once again have to get involved in the Ukraine-Russia spat, which may be what Putin really wants anyway. He wants NATO to keep its hands off Ukraine and to stop the encirclement strategy that Putin claims has been in progress since Yushchenko chased Viktor Yanukovich out of the presidency. Is such a strategy, assuming it exists, worth the loss of Europe’s energy supplies? And who can least afford the interruption in gas sales — Europe, Ukraine, or Putin and Medvedev?
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This is just another example of how Russia has treated Ukraine. In the past, Stalin’s collectivization in Ukraine resulted in a famine which killed millions. This extermination was politically induced, because Ukraine was anti-Communist, anti-Stalin and anti-Russian. For those who are interested, please read Harvest of Sorrow, by Robert Conquest.
Any cutting off of oil is, once again, politically motivated. The past has shown that Russia will do anything to Ukraine, and oil reduction might just be the beginning.
OhEssYouCowboys on March 4, 2008 at 1:42 PM
How I hope that Ukraine one day will be able to stand on its own without the boot-heel of Russian dictators on its neck. So very, very sad.
spmat on March 4, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Ukraine should pay for the oil it gets, and Russia has full rights to sanction freeloaders. Don’t see what it has to do with collectivization of kulaks by Stalin. You may as well bring out Ukrainian collaboration with Hitler.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 1:49 PM
This is an example of killing many birds with one stone. Russia has issues with Ukraine, but also with Kazahkstan and several Western European nations. Ukraine is a handy whipping boy, and the pain that others suffer is treated as collateral damage. Kazahkstan , which has more natural gas than Russia, needs to be shown who the real regional boss is, and Europe gets to choose between political gain and heating their homes.
Think_b4_speaking on March 4, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Putin is stuck in the Cold War, just like the Army is stuck in WWII. When Ukraine received their independence the Russian military was hollering. Losing the Carpathian mountain passes, and the Dneiper river, gave any future European superpower direct access to the southern steps of Russia. They lost the Pripet marsh barrier in Belarus. I seriously doubt that hordes of 21st Century Tiger tanks are going to be at the gates of Moscow anytime soon, but the Russian military wants to make sure of it. Sooner or later Russia will take Ukraine back.
Limerick on March 4, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Ed this is what Putin was intending all along.
Putin stated he wanted to cut ties off to everyone who bought and used Russians Natural Resources. Heck he bankrupted most of the Oil Companies that were in Russia, including Russian Oil Campanies. Stopped production in most cases and they are running on the bare minimum.
Can we say isolationism.
upinak on March 4, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Maybe you’re not aware that NATO and Ukraine have begun to cooperate in matters of joint defense and security? Maybe you’re not aware that Russia does not want Ukraine in NATO? Maybe you’re not aware that any Ukrainian “collaboration” with the Nazis was a direct result of Stalin’s mass-murder in Ukraine? Maybe you missed the part where I posted: Any cutting off of oil is, once again, politically motivated. The past has shown that Russia will do anything to Ukraine, and oil reduction might just be the beginning?
The issue that I brought up was – the possibility that political motivations could, once again, result in devastation in Ukraine. Once again, the forced collectivization efforts of Stalin, in Ukraine, were POLITICALLY motivated. So, too, are the actions of Putin.
OhEssYouCowboys on March 4, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Might wanna keep an eye on Poland. Trust me on this.
I totally agree with you. Sooner or Later, but I don’t think it will just be the Ukraine.
upinak on March 4, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Limerick on March 4, 2008,
Russia, A global organized crime syndicate has total control of it’s own state and will extort the world for tribute and protection services. Long Live the KGB Mafia.
Egfrow on March 4, 2008 at 2:08 PM
LOL! How about Russia paying reparations to the citizens of Ukraine for Stalin and other murderous Soviet regimes?
Ukraine FTW!
Levinite on March 4, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Yip, my grandmother and her brothers who were murdered by Ukrainian SS will be so thrilled to hear that.
No doubt they are politically motivated moves, but you ignore that as long as Russia doesn’t physically invade Ukraine, it has a right to cut oil to anyone they desire, and more so to freeloaders who don’t pay for it. Comparing it to Stalinism pretty much diminishes the point you were trying to make.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 2:12 PM
How about Ukraine and the Baltic States paying reparations for being Nazis and murdering countless Jews and Russians? I’m not suggesting that, i’m just saying comparing a few years old debt to 70 year old crimes against humanity by previous regemes is beyond stupid.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 2:16 PM
for what it’s worth–the Ukraine has more smokin’ hot single classy babes than I could have imagined–fo real cuz
fnhaole on March 4, 2008 at 2:16 PM
What ignorant garbage. The Soviet Union was an anti-semitic cesspit – the Nazis got many ideas from the Russian’s own pogroms.
And the Ukraine was a soviet provice that was conquered by the Nazis you cretin.
Russia is not much higher than the Islamofascist states on the list of enemies of the free democratic world. Fortunately their armed forces today are a rusting pile of crap run by incompetents.
Pax americana on March 4, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Really? I don’t think they are as rusty as you think.
upinak on March 4, 2008 at 2:38 PM
You promised ignorant garbage – and indeed you have delivered.
Ukrainian Kapos were responsible for rounding up most Ukrainian Jews, there were several Ukrainian Waffen-SS divisions and there is still great public sentiment in Ukraine for the Nazi collaborators such as Shukhevits. Overall, Ukrainian antisemitism is much bigger than Russian.
Recently, Ukrainian president awarded a “Hero of the State” title to Shukhevits, who was a Nazi collaborator and mass murderer.
How do i know, you may ask? I was born there.
And people who ignorantly clean up the Ukrainians are classified as Nazi apologists in my book.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 2:46 PM
And for whatever it’s worth – i absolutely despise Putin and i won’t care if Moscow disappears in mushroomy cloud before the sun sets. But clearing up the Ukrainian page and making apoligies for Nazism as if people opressed Communism turning to Nazism is A-OK reallyticks me off.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 2:51 PM
It’s the bad neighbors that just Won’t. Shut. Up. Like you said, they’ve been squabbling for a while. That’s from 2006.
I think there is something to be said about the ‘collections issue.’ From 2006: “Gazprom plans to increase the price of gas to Ukraine to $230 (american) per 1000 cubic meters from the current $50 (american). That $50 price level reflects the still suffocating grip of antiquated Soviet-era subsidised rates.”
Ol mommy Russia has embraced capitalism, and the free market shock from a marxist system to a capitalist system has demanded gazprom rapidly increase prices to cover expenses. Russia wants those euros from an energy hungry Europe, and it has to go through the Ukraine to get ‘em.
That ledes to the ‘power issue’ you mentioned.
locomotivebreath1901 on March 4, 2008 at 3:01 PM
Gee Aristotle, are you not aware of the massive famines Stalin imposed on Ukraine during the 1930s, starving millions of Ukrainians? It’s not that Ukrainians were necessarily enthusiastic Nazis, but more like “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” And Hitler was intending Ukraine to be his lebensraum, he was going to kill off everyone already living there.
See also, Finland siding with Germany during WWII because of the Soviet invasion there.
Now it is true that Gazprom can sell to whomever it wants, but as those pipelines cross Ukrainian territory, Ukraine gets to say “you can use our territory, but only under our terms”.
rbj on March 4, 2008 at 3:08 PM
You are pushing the same idiotic and nonsencial notion that being starved by Communists somehow makes it OK being a Pro-Nazi and forming SS and Kapo units that mass-murdered minorities. This is not incidental collaboration, it’s idiological collaboration which is glorified by a significant percentage of Ukrainians to this day.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Aristotle, no one is condoning collaboration with Nazis. I can see why Ukranians did it, they were being mass-murdered themselves by the Russians. You seem to conveniently forget that. Plus, you’ve gone off the rails on what the post was all about: Ukraine setting conditions under which Gazprom will be allowed to use Ukrainian territory.
rbj on March 4, 2008 at 3:30 PM
I lived in Odessa and Kiev as well as in Minsk, Beylorus from 94-96. I learned to speak a dirty Russian-Ukrainian mix in Odessa which is largely not understandable to my associates from Petersberg and other more proper parts of Russia. What I’m getting at is that I was completely immersed in the culture–not some 1 week tourist.
I never once saw this ideological glorification you speak of. I remember speaking to a man who spoke with disguist of seeing the first Nazi tanks roll into Kiev. I saw the reverence of Babi Yar and no one proud of the murdering done there of minorities. I listened to the soldiers and civilians who lived through the occupation as they shared their histories at the National Museum of the Great Patriotic War. None shared those ideologies you speak of. But, there are extremists everywhere and I do not doubt they exist, but do doubt they are as prevelant as you speak.
As for oil and gas, all I can add is anecdotal experience. My apartments never had the gas turned on until at least November. I went over 9 months without a hot shower in my apartment. Why, gas and oil shortages. Ukraine IS Russias whipping boy.
thomashton on March 4, 2008 at 3:36 PM
The Soviets have pretty much Russified Ukraine and dumbed down the phenomenon. 94-96 were still the years of pro-russian governance.
I’m speaking about the more recent years, Shukhevits getting titled by the goverment and adored byt the people is just one example of the closet Nazi sympathy coming to the open.
And it’s not only in Ukraine, it’s in the Baltic states too.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 3:43 PM
This explains what must have made you such a deranged apologist for the evils of Russian (and by proxy Soviet) imperialism.
The Russian empire was the birthplace of modern anti-semitism – the massive pogroms in the late 19th and early 20th centuries organised by the Russian Imperial government are well documented . Don’t pretend they are such great anti-fascists – they signed a non-aggression pact with Hitler for Gawds sake, carving up Poland in the process and couldn’t give a monkeys about what happened to the Jews. When the Ukrainians lost the civil war against the Bolsheviks they then had inflicted on them one of the great genocides of the 20th century. None of this makes apologies for collaborators, but you can’t sweep Russian persecution of the Ukrainian people under the carpet.
Russia’s annual military spending is less than France or the UK. They only get to that level by fleecing others for natural gas. They have a permanent inferiority complex which is why they behave macho, like a toad puffing itself up.
Pax americana on March 4, 2008 at 3:44 PM
Right. Logic is not one of your strongest traits, is it not? How is being born in Ukraine and realizing their downsides should make one a “deranged apologist for the evils of Russian imperialism”. Moron.
I DON’T make any apologies for the Russians (as i mentioned several times) i’m just saying the Ukrainians are just as bad and even worse – and thus it is wrong blindly supporting them over the Russians even though they are indeed have not paid for the oil they get, and making notably moronic excuses such as “they were opressed by Stalin 70-80 years ago”.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 4:03 PM
The Russians have persecuted the Ukrainians, no doubt. The Ukrainians have also persecuted other nations and so on. But returning to my original point, this does not give the Ukrainians an international right to freeload Russian oil and it doesn’t make the Russians evil for shutting oil supply for non-payment. You think like a communist would think, not like a free market supporter should think.
Aristotle on March 4, 2008 at 4:12 PM
Sounds like Russia made the same “static analysis” error that our own Congress makes too often when setting tax rates.
If you economically abuse someone, you cannot expect them to sit there and take it: they will adapt; and you will be very surprised by their adaptation if you expect them to just sit there!
So increased gas rates are a loser for Russia…just as increased tax rates are a loser for America.
Too bad the folks in charge can’t understand basic economics.
landlines on March 4, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Interesting. Please elaborate.
aengus on March 4, 2008 at 5:24 PM
Russia running out of oil? Is there a deal for oil from Iran? Anyone read Red Storm Rising?
- The Cat
P.S. I didn’t read it, but I did play the video game.
MirCat on March 4, 2008 at 6:00 PM
It’s all about the Oil!
hadsil on March 4, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Actually, the Ukrainians are thinking like capitalists. Either Russia gives them subsidized natural gas and oil or the Russians can’t use the Ukrainian pipelines to supply Europe. The rest is negotiation for price.
Bill C on March 5, 2008 at 12:09 PM
I had the pleasure of living in Moscow for nearly two years and as any Russian will tell you Moscovites are different than Russians. However, I did travel and ended up marrying a lovely girl from a large town so I got a sampling of the country.
Russians are extremely friendly and generous until they get drunk. Then stay away from them because they are likely to throw a punch for no reason. It isn’t really hard to avoid the drunks because they do tend to get plastered. Also, when asked I always said nice things about Russia which gave the Russians permission to bitch about their country. But I never criticized Russia or the her politicians because then they got really defensive. Almost the exact opposite of the US.
Bill C on March 5, 2008 at 4:08 PM
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