Can Hillary win Texas?
posted at 10:30 am on March 4, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Earlier this morning, I predicted that Barack Obama would win a narrow victory over Hillary Clinton in Texas. However, Jay Reding looks at the latest Real Clear Politics polling and believes that Hillary could become the Comeback Queen tonight. If so, she may have a claim to the momentum that her campaign insists has developed over the weekend.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. Of the seven polls that RCP has tracked over the last week, Obama has only won three of them, and each only by a point. In the other four, Hillary has beaten Obama by one, three, five, and six points — and all seven polls surveyed likely primay voters. Amazingly, Zogby isn’t even the outlier; they have Hillary up by three. RCP puts the average at a 1.7% advantage for Clinton, a dead heat in any sense.
That represents a minor miracle at this point. Texas began sliding towards Obama after the Wisconsin debacle, where what should have been a close race turned into a 17-point drubbing for Hillary. These polls may show that Obamamentum may have halted over the last week, and voters may be reconsidering the end of the Democratic primary process.
However, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves, either. Wisconsin looked like something close to a dead heat as well, and in the end, Obama got voters to the polls. The same could easily happen in Texas. So far, Hillary has only pulled one close race into her column, and that came two months ago in New Hampshire.
I’m still predicting a narrow Obama win in Texas. However, here’s the question for Hot Air readers: If Obama loses Texas, does that give Hillary a reason to demand his withdrawal from the race? And don’t forget to check back at 6 pm CT for the Hot Air live-blog of the primary results. (via Mitch Berg)
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Good luck to her, but today I vote for Fred Dalton Thompson.
RushBaby on March 4, 2008 at 10:33 AM
I’m taking ten to one bets that Hillary will win Tx. But it’s a maximum of ten cents a bet.
Squiggy on March 4, 2008 at 10:33 AM
If Hillary wins TX, she’ll have Rush to thank.
Republicans… be careful what you wish for. A Hillary/Obama ticket would seem to be more likely with her on top (sorry for the visual), and she may just pull this out if she wins TX and OH. Oy.
MT on March 4, 2008 at 10:38 AM
I’m a Texas Republican off to vote in a just a bit. I’m looking forward to seeing how difficult it is for me to cross over and vote for queen bee.
Sugar Land on March 4, 2008 at 10:38 AM
I’m getting the sense that Clinton is rebounding in much the same way Romney was rebounding. Too little, too late.
Clinton can’t just “win” tonight, she has to win by more than a couple of percentage points to be convincing as a candidate.
highhopes on March 4, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Just voted for Hillary in Ohio. On a Diebold machine no less.
Sincerely,
A Limbaugh Democrat
miles on March 4, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Strongly agree with MT, careful what you wish for…. I think she could narrowly win here in Texas, although the way the delegates are apportioned by district, based on turnout in the previous governor’s race means that the big O will likely get more delegates today.
Think_b4_speaking on March 4, 2008 at 10:41 AM
Mark me down - whoever wins Texas, wins the nomination.
If Hillary wins, the press will suddenly give her the “momentum”, “comeback kid” descriptions and she will be unstoppable.
faraway on March 4, 2008 at 10:41 AM
Obama’s Osama-look-a-like photo will be to blame.
faraway on March 4, 2008 at 10:43 AM
The ONLY way hillary gets out, is being drug out kicking and screaming at the Dim convention!
kcd on March 4, 2008 at 10:44 AM
I think that if Hillary does carry TX, that there is a strong case to be made for her as the nominee, and that’s basically that Hillary can carry the large states that make the most impact on the electoral college and that Obama delivers only the smaller states, many of which are solidly red and in no danger of turning blue.
Pluh-leeze let Hill the Shrill win Tx and lets have a knock down drag out battle over whether or not to disenfranchise the voters of FL and MI.
Either way it’ll be bittersweet, either we get to watch the entire party go batsh*t at the convention or we get to watch Hillary go down in flames. Oh what fun.
Jason Coleman on March 4, 2008 at 10:44 AM
It wasn’t too hard at all for yrs truly. The way I looked at it, I was just contributing to the intrigue. And you have to admit that this has been one of the most intriguing elections cycles in a while…
Matticus Finch on March 4, 2008 at 10:45 AM
I’m getting worried that she will take it and the Michigan/Florida delegate rumble won’t be necessary. If she avoids that, the Dems also avoid a convention mess. That would be a disappointment.
a capella on March 4, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Ooooo I’m shaking in my boots. The veep selection is supposed to balance the ticket and broaden its support. If Republicans can force Democrats to run a hyper-liberal woman with an ultra-liberal whose only “qualification” for national office is his blackness the general election will be McCain’s to lose.
miles on March 4, 2008 at 10:47 AM
Ha! No but that would be funny.
Dash on March 4, 2008 at 10:47 AM
I live in PA, and have to re-register to vote here soon because we moved. If it looks like she’s getting momentum and will stay in at least until the PA primary, I might just change parties for the sake of the primary and become a Limbaugh Democrat to vote for Cankles. I would LOVE for the Dhim primary to go on as long as possible, even better if here is a cool and messy convention.
What party I switch to after the primary, I don’t know. I don’t know if I can go back to the ‘Pubes.
Darksean on March 4, 2008 at 10:47 AM
Hillary will take Texas and she will take Ohio. I’m not in Ohio but I am in Texas and am very involved in the politics here. Over the weekend, I met very few that had anything good to say about Obama and some were drooling over Hillary. I know that isn’t scientific - but…
Snooper on March 4, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Nope it is going down to the wire. Neither of the Democrat identities, Black nor Woman, is going to fall on thier sword.
If Obama is not the nominee Blacks will be etremely jaded. An Obama loss and the Democrat party’s hard hispandering, will have considerable, long lasting, consequences.
Theworldisnotenough on March 4, 2008 at 10:51 AM
Limbaugh Democrat?
I like it.
Theworldisnotenough on March 4, 2008 at 10:52 AM
Not to mention his friend/slum landlord that went on trial the day before elections. I’m still figuring out how Clinton pulled that one off.
The irony is, of course, that Clinton was part of the most corrupt administration in the 20th century and McCain got caught stuffing his pockets with lobbyist money. Obama is actually the cleanest of the three.
highhopes on March 4, 2008 at 10:55 AM
It would be better for the republicans if Obama wins Texas. Hill as an illegitimate nominee by losing TX but getting MI and FL delegates seated would damage the dems. Obama (who would not take Hill as VP) is a weak candidate who will lose many of her primary supporters.
Think_b4_speaking on March 4, 2008 at 10:55 AM
As distinct from?
LimeyGeek on March 4, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Rasmussen has texas Close
Texas Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 47%
Barack Obama 48%
Not Sure 5%
What this proves is that Obama isnt unbeatible. And that Hillary has the right strategy its hit obama over and over again. A highly negative campaign has pushed his negatives up and he doesnt seem so unbeatible
William Amos on March 4, 2008 at 10:57 AM
You must always kill Dracula at the earliest opportunity. If Rush gets his wish he’s also going to get his nightmare–The Hildabeast with her accused rapist husband back in the White House.
patrick neid on March 4, 2008 at 10:57 AM
Careful now, you don’t want to get Bidened.
LimeyGeek on March 4, 2008 at 10:57 AM
Well, McCain doesn’t have a friend who “bombed the U.S. Capitol, a bathroom in the Pentagon, and even cased out the White House.”
ninjapirate on March 4, 2008 at 11:05 AM
I’m just suggesting that unifying both factions of the Democrat party on the ticket would seem to minimize the value of Maverick’s moderate creds to pull in the more centrist Dems. If Obama wins the nomination and didn’t pick Hillary for veep (or if she refused), I could see many Hillary supporters voting for Juan.
MT on March 4, 2008 at 11:06 AM
Yes, he’s just not that hip ;)
LimeyGeek on March 4, 2008 at 11:06 AM
I live in Texas and hope hc wins here. She scares me, but no where as much as bho does.
L
letget on March 4, 2008 at 11:09 AM
C’man Ed, is this a trick question? Or was it sarcasm with a touch of irony?
Best case scenerio for the conservatives is for these two to continue to slug it out for months ahead. The “Rhetorical King” of hope and change will get caught in the phone booth undecided about which side of the NAFTA crowd he has to appease today. Meanwhile the “Queen of Day1″ leadership will continue to get pushed to the left, (instead of the middle where the Clinton deception got Willy elected the first time around.) Both nominee’s are a pathetic representation of what this nations needs are in the years ahead for economic and national security stability. Either one would destroy both paying for their political promises, and at who’s expense?
Rovin on March 4, 2008 at 11:09 AM
“If Republicans can force Democrats to run a hyper-liberal woman with an ultra-liberal whose only “qualification” for national office is his blackness the general election will be McCain’s to lose.”
.
miles on March 4, 2008
.
I disagree. I believe that is the one permutation that hands the white house to the dems this year. They are voting on personality and identity politics, not issues, so putting the two together gives them the edge in the general.
Think_b4_speaking on March 4, 2008 at 11:13 AM
She will bomb out big time in the Lone Star State, which has become overly addicted to Obamamania.
pilamaye on March 4, 2008 at 11:14 AM
All you Texas voters: be sure to caucus tonight. I don’t want to be the only right-wing bomb thrower pushing for the Hildebeast at my precinct.
However, you might need a barf bag during the discussions if you don’t have a cast iron stomach. And pick up a bar of Lava soap to get the liberal stench off afterward.
michaelo on March 4, 2008 at 11:16 AM
Up until just yesterday I thought Obama would win here in Texas by a comfortable margin. Something strange happened though and a lot of people started thinking more positively, well, with less hate anyway, about Hillary. Still, there is a hidden vote for Obama that’s not mentioned much in the polls, that is Hispanic Men. Down here in Texas they are rather macho and many would sooner die than vote for a woman, any woman.
The real mess is going to be that Hillary might win the popular vote here and still lose the delegate count. In any event, if she sweeps all four races today her delegate totals will gain her a net of about four delegates! This leaves Obama with 150 delegate lead. Then things will REALLY heat up.
JonPrichard on March 4, 2008 at 11:21 AM
We don’t take kindly to the water works she has displayed in other states.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Oh, I never vote for Dumbocrats. I care too much for America to do so.
madmonkphotog on March 4, 2008 at 11:24 AM
A cold front came through Texas yesterday. Snow flurries have been predicted in the northern part of the state. Just an FYI: That is Hades getting a slight frosting as my friends and I cast ballots for Hillary today…
SwampRat on March 4, 2008 at 11:29 AM
You are going to vote for that pro-choice moonshine-chasin’ terrorist-enabling lobbyist when you have an opportunity to vote for the Hilldabeast and send the Dems into turmoil???
tommylotto on March 4, 2008 at 11:35 AM
Yes, if Herself! wins Texas she has Rush Limbaugh to thank. Just think of all the fun we’ll have listening to Rush, et al. popping off during the General Election run up. To whit:
“I brought you here and I can take you out of here!” (with apologies to William Cosby, Ed.)
SeniorD on March 4, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I’m torn. I WANT to vote for Fred. I gave him so much DAMN money, I feel like I owe it to him. But Hillary needs me. What to do…
edgehead on March 4, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Ok, I’ll put my crow on the plate and lay out the silverware…Obama takes Texas. Earlier I had said 12 points. Looks like us crossovers have dented that so I’ll drop it to five.
Dallas and Tarrant County early voter numbers 2008 and 2004: A Ten fold increase. 10-1.
Dallas and Tarrant County early voter numbers:
4-1 Dem/Rep turn out. 4-1! Even with pie-in-the-sky wishing you can’t say that Reps made up more then 25% of the Dem vote. That still leaves us at a minimum of 3-1 behind.
3-1! That is a bit too big to phoo-phoo off as ‘Dems always turn out early’.
Now I’m supposed to believe that it is Hillary love that produced those numbers? Not a chance in hell.
Obama by five.
(Any recommendations on a sauce for my crow?) :)
Limerick on March 4, 2008 at 11:38 AM
I haven’t voted as of this morning, but I have considered doing just that. If the early primary states had disallowed crossover voting, we wouldn’t find ourselves in such a fix: voting for a liberal, voting for a socialist, or voting for a communist.
But, considering the effect my one vote will have on the results of today’s futility, I may just sit it out. I won’t do that in the general election, a liberal is a little better than what the dems will have running.
Texas Nick 77 on March 4, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Just remembered, welcome to HotAir, Ed. I’ll miss CQ, but I have Day by Day cartoon in my favourites. Best of luck here. I never commented at CQ, but I was reading it about every day since last year.
Texas Nick 77 on March 4, 2008 at 11:47 AM
I agonized, then quit thinking about it, read, agonized some more, listened to the radio folks, quit listening to the radio folks, then finally consulted my own conscience. I arrived at my final decision last night, and I feel light as a feather. Regardless of the outcome, my conscience is clear.
RushBaby on March 4, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Let them battle and bloody each other to the end.
echosyst on March 4, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Yes, if she wins, she’ll have the Dittoheads to thank.
Hil running with BHO for VP is a prospect I dread.
petefrt on March 4, 2008 at 11:55 AM
I’m going after work today and due my duty and vote for the HilDog. I might vomit in the process, wish me luck!
conservnut on March 4, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Well you know…they say the only thing the American people like seeing more than someone’s downfall is someone’s comeback.
mattyj86 on March 4, 2008 at 11:58 AM
By the way, I’m thinking Barack by 5% in Texas, Hillary by 5% in Ohio.
mattyj86 on March 4, 2008 at 12:00 PM
The best possible outcome for the dems is for Hillary to win TX and OH. She can then make the semi-valid argument that she is the more popular candidate, and eke out a nomination win without a legal battle, and put the big O on as VP. That is the combination that assures a dem win in November.
Think_b4_speaking on March 4, 2008 at 12:09 PM
I don’t get Rush’s reasoning. Let’s just get rid of hillary now and then run against the inexperienced hack politician with the connection to corruption in November.
Bill C on March 4, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Dread not and bone up on American politics. No way a HRC/BHO ticket can win in this country. A fact the Clinton’s are fully aware of, which is why they’ll never go pick a “star” underling who will only outshine Herself and drag them into Leftist oblivion.
miles on March 4, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Regarding Limbaugh’s influence, does this mean, they’ll finally shut up about how irrelevant talk radio is if she wins?
Regarding the polls, part of the reason why Hillary (and McCain) won big in Cali even though polls showed Obama (and Mitt) leading was because they vastly underestimated the Hispanic turnout, which went big for both Hillary and McCain. The only difference is that in Texas, there isn’t a huge Asian population, which also gave Hillary tons of surprise votes that day in Cali.
Regarding the rest of the primary season, I hope that regardless of what happens tonight, Hillary stays in this thing until convention. Glenn Beck said it best a few weeks ago on his show. The only thing that even approaches the peace of Jesus is the sense of well-being conservatives are getting by watching the Dems use their own tactics against each other.
jbohanon on March 4, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Internal division in their party is to our benefit. Let the tribes in the Democrat party duke it out, the loser ends up brooding, and dispirited.
Hillary can’t beat McCain so who cares?
Theworldisnotenough on March 4, 2008 at 12:55 PM
1. Age factor. Obama is young, charismatic, and new. The GOP has a dried up old dinosaur who doesn’t even have the support of the party rank-and-file. On this factor, Clinton is also an uncharismatic dried up dinosaur who doesn’t have the support of her party. The contrast between Obama and a bitter nasty old man like McCain would be striking but not so much with Clinton.
2. Clinton winning at this point would keep the party loyalties in flux longer. Ideally, the DNC Convention would have to broker a deal while the GOP (through manipulation of the primary process) foists Senator Triceratops on us by the end of March. That gives McNasty plenty of time to lie his way into enough support he could pull of a stunning upset and win the White House in November. The key to McCain’s victory is party unity (read bitch slap down any Republican who disagrees with McCain)while Clinton and Obama duke it out to differentiate themselves in areas they are virtually identical to one another and to Triceratops.
3. There is more material and sentiment to use against Clinton. Not the least of which is the public’s weariness of this Bush/Clinton tag team dynasty. Obama’s very inexperience makes it difficult to hit him on the issues and to hit him on any other factor gets you immediately branded a racist.
highhopes on March 4, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Why does this mantra have the same ring as “Hillary is Inevitable” a few short months ago? Do you honestly think that lightweight empty suit will be able to smooth talk himself to the biggest affirmative action power grab in history?
Seriously?
miles on March 4, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Well I voted for the beast today in Texas. I didn’t vomit or anything but I am starting to feel a little ill now. I probably caught some filthy dem virus. Now I am supposed to go back tonight and caucus. I don’t if I can do it.
Overall I guess it was good practice for voting for triceratops in November.
Ars Moriendi on March 4, 2008 at 1:56 PM
high-hopes,
That’s all conventional wisdom and talking points. The facts on the ground, not thoughts up in the air, say things a little differently.
The Clinton’s have a machine in place that controls most of the press, TV, Hollywood, editorial pages etc. Probably half of all government employees owe the Clinton’s. Despite her negatives she will get 90% of the black vote and Jewish vote. After she promises free health care and amnesty she will get 75-80 of the Hispanic vote. With that she needs probably less than 40% of the white and Asian electorate.
She wins the election after her machine gets done with McCain and a VP candidate that he chooses who the independents may not like. For all the talk about a brokered convention every single democrat will vote for her along with the majority of independents–a group that decides all elections these last 30 years.
Obama, lacking a machine is much easier to defeat. As his cockeyed ramblings get more exposure McCain will have an easy time of it. Additionally many Clinton supporters will sit home secretly hoping that McCain wins so Hillary can run in 2012.
So to repeat, Dracula has to be killed at the earliest possible date.
patrick neid on March 4, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I’m not in Texas or Ohio, but there seems to be lots of backlash against Obama because of his lies about NAFTA (while telling Canadians not to take his campaign rhetoric seriously), and his dodging questions about Rezko, who went on trial yesterday. The ABC blog about his dodging questions about Rezko has hundreds of anti-Obama comments, and the Teflon seems to be wearing off the Oba-Messiah.
Whether this is too little, too late to deprive Obama of the Dem nomination remains to be seen, but if Hillary can win Ohio and stay in the race at least until Pennsylvania, the Democrats could end up not having a nominee until the convention. If all the states have their primaries and caucuses, and Obama has a very small lead among pledged delegates, and the super-delegates split about evenly, it’s possible that neither candidate reaches the threshold needed for nomination, and the Democrats will have to do something about Florida and Michigan.
If they allocate delegates based on the past results, Obama’s people will scream bloody murder, especially since Hillary was running against “uncommitted” in Michigan. If they run do-over primaries, who will have “momentum” by that time? Will there be more Rezko revelations to tarnish Obama by then?
The longer this race continues, the weaker the eventual nominee will be against McCain. If Hillary eventually wins the nomination, she’s got lots of baggage, and some disgruntled Obama supporters (especially blacks) might stay home for the general election. If Obama wins the nomination, there might be enough dirt against him reported by the media (which will report it if Hillary digs it up, but hide it if McCain digs it up) to knock him off his pedestal for the general election.
Either way, it would be better than Obama waltzing into the White House on a wing and a prayer of wishful thinking.
Steve Z on March 4, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Just got back from the local precinct. My wife and I voted early but today we drove an elderly couple down to the polls.
Our polling place was a single room with a line of tables dividing it down the middle. Dem ballots to the left(which I thought appropriate), Rep ballots to the right. The line on the Dem side was about 25-30 deep. There were 3 voters at the voting booths to the right.
The caucus part of the Texas voting (Dems) starts at 7:15pm CST. Looks like it is going to be a late night here.
BTW, the elderly couple voted for Huck. My wife and I tried to talk them into the crossover strategy but I think all we accomplished was getting taken off their Christmas card list.
Limerick on March 4, 2008 at 4:22 PM
I doubt that she`d want to share the stage with someone who`d outshine or upstage her,
ThePrez on March 4, 2008 at 4:40 PM
Cheap and dirty. That’s how I feel. I just left my precinct polling location here in Austin, after voting for Hillary. Sheesh, I never thought it would come to this. Voting for an opponent in the presidential primary simply so we can try to beat her in the general election. Excuse me, this Limbaugh Democrat has to go take a shower and wash the slime off. To think, I have to debase myself further at the 7:15 caucus. All I can say is McCain damn well better appreciate this.
second digit on March 4, 2008 at 4:52 PM
One should always take Zogby’s “secret sauce” polling with a large grain of salt. He’s been wrong before.
Likewise with ARG, which predicted Hillary would win Iowa by double digits. ARG has also been spectacularly wrong in the past here in New Hampshire predicting results, which is scary considering that they are based here.
Del Dolemonte on March 4, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Cheap and dirty. second digit on March 4, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Taking one for the team just took on a whole new meaning. Hope the stench wash’s off soon. I’m not sure I could pull that trigger. As my fellow CQer Del said, banking on polls may be hazardous this entire season. Since the debacle of the VNS (voter news service) in 2000, we may see polsters with an agenda not to our liking.
Rovin on March 4, 2008 at 7:53 PM
“Can Hillary win Texas?”
It’s midnight, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say ‘yes’. You can quote me.
;)
Kevin M on March 5, 2008 at 1:39 AM
Have a feeling that THIS is the ONLY reason Hillary is still standing
jimbo2008 on March 5, 2008 at 7:08 AM