-McCain = 10 (my top choice)
-Obama = 5
-Clinton = 1 (Extremly low utility)

Next I assigned percentages of likelihood of McCain winning. So here’s my percentages:

-Chance of McCain over Obama: 30%

-Chance of McCain over Clinton: 60%

Then I combined the two to see which match-up gave me the highest value:

-McCain vs. Obama = (10 x 30%) + (5 x 70%)= 6.5

-McCain vs. Clinton = (10 x 60%) + (1 x 40%) = 6.4

Sorry Allah, it’s close but it looks like I get more utility out of an Obama/McCain match-up (6.5 to 6.4). For me I just can’t take much risk that Hillary ends up the eventual President.

Here is my logic:

1. The Obama folks are so emotional and weird right now that in a very close primary that could be decided in Denver, a very high number of them could potentially switch to McCain out of spite.

2. Even if Hillary takes Ohio and is close in Texas, there will be a bloody battle over the MI and FL delegates. Clinton will fight dirty, as she has been trained to do.

3. Hate to say it, but I trust her more than Obama on national security, and Obama will be beholden to his wacky netroots friends who helped push him in the front runner position. He’s just naive and very frightening.

4. I can still, and will, vote for McCain in the general.

My only real pangs of conscience came from down ballot contests. In reality, Travis County will always choose the Democrats, though, and particularly in a very high democratic turnout that we are seeing here. So, I voted for the most insane democrats that I knew would lose to any respectable democrat or republican.

That was my logic. FWIW, I can also understand those that want to finish the Clinton run once and for all. I’m just having too much fun watching tin foil hats explode.

Oh—and to whomever asked about a Republican caucus, no, here in Texas only the Democrats have the “Texas Two Step.” The Republicans have a normal, rational primary.

I haven’t read all the comments, so pardon me, and I mean no offense — truly — to my A-A friends here and at home, but I gotta say it: can you even imagine the depressing effect that a Hillary comeback will have on the black vote in the general election?

YES, I CAN!! Which is why I’ll be voting for the Glacier tomorrow. I love a bloody, knockdown drag out political brawl. When the Dems are having it.

Since you previously asked “what could possibly go wrong,” I’ll tell you:

She might be a stronger general election candidate than Obama. And Republicans’ actions might give her the boost she needs to become the general election candidate.

That’s what could go wrong!

On the upside, all of the liberals around me who are swooning for Obama would have their hearts broken. That’s almost worth having a Hillary presidency with its tearing up of free trade treaties, abandonment of our allies, socialization of our economy at home (especially the nontrivial fraction devote to healthcare), and general feminization of our country . . . almost, but not quite.

we’ve at least got a shot at triangulating her towards our side.

What is this “our side” you speak of? Is it the McCain platform? That is certainly not MY side.

I’m staying home in November. Vote if you want to, but McCain, Obama… makes no difference. MY side isn’t represented by any of the candidates.

He’s also a pro-amnesty moderate.

Do. Not. Want.

someone on March 3, 2008 at 11:12 PM

You sure? Not what it says here.

Or here.

Got a link to the contrary?

Steele’s a fantastic role model with a great story and message, not just for Black Americans, but ALL Americans.

He’s also a pro-amnesty moderate.

Do. Not. Want.

THE CHOSEN ONE on March 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM

Oops.

can’t decide what to do! I’m a Texas Republican, and I can’t decide whether to crossover. I want to crossover and vote for Hillary, but it feels … weird. Like it’s cheating or something.

There’s less than 12 hours till the polls open, and if I don’t go first thing in the morning, I won’t have time for the rest of the day to stand in line for two hours.

I call on the Hot Air group conscience. Help me out, folks: Do I crossover and vote for the Glacier, or stay on our side and vote for a new district attorney?

paul006 on March 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Paul;

Sometimes you have to fall on the grenade for the team. Do it. Push the Hillary button.Do it for the Team.

I mean, can you?

If she claws her way back to the nomination, she can kiss the black vote goodbye. Not that Mav will get it, but protest stay home vote of the century.

THE CHOSEN ONE on March 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM

I pretty much quit listening to news and radio lately, but was driving back home from a meeting last Friday and heard Michael Steele standing in for Hewitt on the radio. Those black voters you mention would have someplace to go if McC picked Steele for VP.

I think it would historic justice for the first black POTUS to be Republican in 2012. Steele’s a fantastic role model with a great story and message, not just for Black Americans, but ALL Americans.

I understand this notion that the Dems will simply allign behind whichever: But I don’t think that that takes into account the real race-based divisions that have and are developing between HRC supporters, and the deluded BHO supporters who are seeing him as the savior of the race.

If we help HRC “steal” – as BHO supporters will view it – the nomination from the messiah, then they will destroy one another.

Texas and Ohio: VOTE HILL!

And she’ll throw poo, poo, poo
Til the voters take her broom away
(She’ll throw poo, poo, poo til the voters take her broom away)

He’s pretty vulnerable to new dirt, but somehow I get the feeling his supporters will sulk more and stay at home in larger numbers if he loses the nomination.

a capella on March 3, 2008 at 10:24 PM

Totally agree. If hil steals the nomination, like it looks like she’s going to, that’s going to dispirit a lot of the youthfully idealistic, and they’ll pout and protest by not showing up in November.

Works for me.

But then learned that if I did that, I couldn’t vote for the other important local primary candidates and the three issues which are on the ballot and which are important to me.

So I decided to vote gop for the things I care about. I won’t vote for McC either in the primary, but will in the fgeneral (he’s going to win big in Texas anyway). So in the primary, since he’s on the ballot, I’ll vote for the candidate I wanted in the first place, Fred Dalton Thompson. It’s an empty gesture, but it’s my empty gesture.

I think hil’s in it for the long run, no matter what happens tomorrow. The Big O, is cracking around the seams and the press is starting to smell blood in the water. They won’t be able to help themselves. I have no enthusiasm for McC, but I believe he can beat either one of the dem clowns. And I don’t want to throw our Troops to the dogs.

Gonna be fun to watch how all this plays out.

This thing is winnable, baby.

Well, no, but it’s complicatable.

Then again, if she wins, it won’t be the first crow I’ve BBQd this election cycle.

Gonna be a crazy year.

TexasJew on March 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM”
Oh good, another Conservative Jew making the rest of us look like asshats, thanks Wolfowitz.

Crist is a good governor, and he is managing to be a good governor of the whole state, without blowing off large segments of the population, a sizable feat in FL.