Blogger’s heart swells at evidence of late break towards Hillary among Texas Republicans
posted at 8:51 pm on March 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
A three- to five-point cushion for His Holiness, suddenly evaporating? Get my hopes up, why don’t you. No worries. It’s just my heart.
“One thing we’re hearing that we really didn’t expect is people going and voting in the Democratic primary for Hillary Clinton,” Markum said. “They come up to me and they say McCain can beat Hillary, but he can’t beat Obama. It’s fueled by guys like Rush Limbaugh, by Ann Coulter [Ann Coulter? -- ed.], who’re telling them to keep Hillary in this race, and that trickles down to Republicans going into those voting booths who can’t vote in our election. These were some voters we were counting on, so that’s thrown a bit of a kink in our extrapolations.”
Mind you, I heard the same thing in Wisconsin, where Republican crossover voters went 72-28 for Obama over Clinton. If the numbers diverge more than 5 or 10 points in Texas, I’d be pretty shocked. But it might be a function of Republicans becoming less a’feared of Clinton because of Obama’s wins.
She leads in two of the last three polls and trails by a solitary point in the other. This thing is winnable, baby. All we have to do is want it enough. Exit question: Can the GOP rescue Hillary Clinton from all but certain defeat? Si se puede!
Update: Now or never.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, told Providence radio station WPRO during the day, “We can’t go all the way through to the convention fighting with each other while McCain and the Republicans lob in whatever free shots they want.” Whitehouse, a superdelegate who supports Clinton, added, “Let’s see how Tuesday plays out, and then let’s start thinking about how we’re going to get behind a candidate.”
Update: Be careful what you wish for, says Slublog. Really? Why? How could she be worse than Obama? Revisit this Krauthammer column. Even if she wins we’ve at least got a shot at triangulating her towards our side. What about His Holiness?
Blowback
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I got excited when the late polls were breaking for Thompson in SC. I got excited when the late polls were breaking for Mitt. The only thing that breaks in times like these, is my hope…thus I call on Obama.
Weight of Glory on March 3, 2008 at 8:54 PM
If you look at the Rasmussen Daily Tracker, you could sort of see this coming. His unfavorables were going up and McCain caught up to him and started to pull away. I think people might finally be seeing through him.
Mattpat11 on March 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Hill has some room from her record, I think, to pound Obama on gun control. I’m surprised she doesn’t do it down in Texas.
Dusty on March 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Let’s hope that these Republicans who are voting for Hillary aren’t too smart by half and giving the Huckster a win in Texas.
That said, my heart fills with joy at the prospect of Hillary destroying The O – something we will have a more difficult time doing.
Buy Danish on March 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Nothing, enveloped in Hope and Change, is still nothing.
Though, this is not what’s happening in Texas.
Entelechy on March 3, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Sheldon, just keep your shirt on, okay? It’s the Democratic Party, dude. A little Denver Demolition Derby will just get the troops pumped up for the main event! Don’t forget your shoulderpads and helmet. And catcher’s cup. And kneepads for after you find out who won.
drunyan8315 on March 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM
The first time in my adult life I’d be proud of a Democrat.
Dusty on March 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM
The Ohio and Texas contests are slug fests, and Hill hits hard. It’ll be interesting to see how BO takes these developments.
Vizzini on March 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM
What’s the deal with caucusing for the primary here in Texas? Are only the dems doing that, and are we supposed to show up and caucus, in person, for HRC?
Anonymous voting is one thing, but there are some things I’m not prepared to do.
TexasDan on March 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM
I can’t decide what to do! I’m a Texas Republican, and I can’t decide whether to crossover. I want to crossover and vote for Hillary, but it feels … weird. Like it’s cheating or something.
There’s less than 12 hours till the polls open, and if I don’t go first thing in the morning, I won’t have time for the rest of the day to stand in line for two hours.
I call on the Hot Air group conscience. Help me out, folks: Do I crossover and vote for the Glacier, or stay on our side and vote for a new district attorney?
paul006 on March 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Nah, stick a fork in her, she’s done.
WayWard Fundamentalist Christian on March 3, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Glacier.
Vizzini on March 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM
She’s done, and I couldn’t be happier.. good riddance.
redrock on March 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM
Is this a case of “be careful what you wish for” if Hill gets the nomination? I know we supposedly have a better shot in the General, but I don’t like the thought of her sliding into the Presidency through the backdoor. Espescially, with the Clintons’ gestapo tactics…
tdau1997 on March 3, 2008 at 9:09 PM
That’s meant to be a putdown and make Republicans sound like Hillbillies (as though that were a bad thing), but the OED says of the word afeard (spelled as one word, with or without the second E) that it is “used more than 30 times by Shakespeare … [it] survives everywhere in the popular speech … and has again been used in the poetry of W. Morris.”
(Morris by the way: sure, he was a socialist, but he was also a great romantic and did some wonderful things with words–and other media–, especially with Old Norse.)
Tzetzes on March 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM
Clap clap, point point, clap clap, point point, yea.
Speakup on March 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM
If this is the case, why vote for a Clinton?
Just finish them off, once and for all.
Never Play With Fire, You Might Get Burned.
Dorvillian on March 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
You know how screwed up the Dem candidates are? They make me passionate about backing Maverick. Uh… who I hated until about 3 weeks ago. Ahhh… God bless America.
Sugar Land on March 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
[paul006 on March 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM]
“Back in ’08, I was worried about who would be our district attorney … And that is how the US got it’s first socialist president. Now run along, kids, or you’ll be late for Hope Recitation classes.”
What kind of story is that for a Texan grandpappy to tell???
Dusty on March 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Republicans keep this battle going til Denver. Vote the beast.
mred on March 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
Of course we Republicans would like to see Hilzilla (roaring shrieks) and Obamadon (thunderous groans) battling titanically all the way to Denver, but Democrats should disregard that. This fight is about the future of the Democratic party and of the USA!
Activist Democrats throughout the 50 states and the rest of the Americas and overseas need to be flooding their candidates’ coffers with cash now plus making travel plans and preparations now to be in Denver during the whole Democratic convention where they’ll be needed, milling round and round the convention hall, trading rumors and ready for action in case either candidate tries any funny business or makes a false move.
And fight it out openly and honestly in the public square. No cigar-smoke-filled Veep deals or “conflict resolution,” please. That’s not the Democrat way, and the Democratic ticket ain’t big enough for two candidates with planetary ambitions and independent power bases. Open up the door. HRC and Obama owe it to their supporters and the USA to fight it out like two John Waynes driven past endurance in The Quiet Man. Stop pussyfooting around!
From extremophiles’ seabed vents
To the belfries of the moon,
Won’t you please all go to Denver,
No one else can take your place!
ForNow on March 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
WoooHoo! I might not of wasted my vote after all!!!
Please wash away this guilt.
Vigilante on March 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
DO IT DUDE! Hold your nose and do it for the team!
ulyses on March 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
I heard for the first time Obama hopes for a change… in these last polls.
aso on March 3, 2008 at 9:17 PM
I understand Rush’s point. The more these Dems have to fight each other, the more they lose momentum and money. I don’t get the Allahpundit point. Is it supposed to be self-evident that it’s easier to beat Hillary than Obama? I don’t see it. The guy’s a lightweight with a silver tongue. Three years in the Senate. Plenty of red flags in his past (Rezko, Farrakhan, massive liberalism). Is he really that scary, up against a guy who, whatever quarrels conservatives have with him, is certainly a heavyweight? Do you really think he’ll survive the debates?
I admit I’m biased, in that I want Hillary gone from the scene, and as far as I’m concerned, any step she takes toward power is one step too many, and one should never let her go to the next step, because it’s too big a risk. But even if I try to see your point of view, I don’t get it. As far as I’m concerned, the Dems nominating Obama would be a gift to the Republican party, and I’m all for it.
Splunge on March 3, 2008 at 9:18 PM
Sorry. Count me as one of the people who thinks McCain would beat Hillary and obliterate Obama.
Chuck Schick on March 3, 2008 at 9:19 PM
Sorry, Rush, Sean, et al -
This Texas Republican cannot cast a vote for a Clinton (or the soon-to-be crashing-to-earth) Obama.
Nor will I vote for that dimwitted Global Warming zombie McCain.
In fact, I wouldn’t hire any one of those three pathetic “Presidential hopefuls” to mop a s**thouse.
I will, however, proudly cast a vote for a Romney or (if necessary) that other proud American success, Donald Duck.
TexasJew on March 3, 2008 at 9:19 PM
Pauly, don’t also forget our need to take back the House and gain some seats in the Senate. If I understand the quirky rules in Texas, if you vote Democrat in the primaries, you are stuck as a Democrat for two years or something like that.
I think everyone needs to remember the Big Picture. It is very plausable that a Democrat will take the White House, but if enough Conservative Republicans are elected in the House and Senate, we can hopefully ensure we will not go down a a very dark road that the US will take a very long time to return from.
Seven Percent Solution on March 3, 2008 at 9:21 PM
Exactly why he would be easier to beat in the general than Hillary.
He’s an empty suit and it would be easy to fold it up and put it away. She’s a mongoose in a pantsuit and will not go down easy.
BacaDog on March 3, 2008 at 9:22 PM
Hah!! Hey Sheldon Whitehouse, I seem to remember the GOP being asked to do the same thing…find a cnadidate and get behind him/her. Did it happen? Will it happen? Can the Dems do it? Can the GOP do it? Not yet!!!!
jeanie on March 3, 2008 at 9:22 PM
With all this Rezko/Chicago land deal breaking Obama will be the easier one to beat. Now there’s a connection to an Iraqi billionaire who was close to Saddam Hussein. Novak broke this story today at RCP.
There’s much, much more to come.
I was hoping Hill would overcome, thinking Obama would be tougher for the GOP to beat. Now, in the last day since these revelations I’ve completely switched.
ericdondero on March 3, 2008 at 9:23 PM
My thoughts exactly…
tdau1997 on March 3, 2008 at 9:23 PM
I don’t know what to do tomorrow either. I just don’t know if I could vote for Hillary or Obama.
terryannonline on March 3, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Three liberals. One Office. It’s the Presidential showdown of the decade. See it LIVE on Fox News.
aengus on March 3, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Keep the enemy in disarray. Let the Democratic Party reveal all its fissure.
mred on March 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM
Yeah, I’m in Travis county. Don’t knock the DA vote…we’re replacing Ronnie Earle. Gotta pick a winner for the general.
My other conundrum, given the vagaries of politics, is the notion that Hillary could still, in some scenarios, go all the way. Do I really want to be a part of that, however small? No. Uh, make that HELL no.
TexasDan on March 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM
The Obama supporter (i was civil, by the grace of God) who came to my house confirmed that we have three libs in the race. His quote? “Really, I like all three, so I can’t lose.”
TexasDan on March 3, 2008 at 9:30 PM
Why has Michelle Obama been so quiet lately…I digress.
Texas +2 to Hillary
Ohio +5 to Hillary
RI +9 to Hillary
VT ? to Hillary
It’s a clean sweep, baby!
SouthernGent on March 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM
If McCain actually chooses Crist as a running mate, that will just take the RINO cake. And we conservatives will most likely just let him go down in flames.
After all the backstabbing and lying and MSM-tuchis kissing, McCain is only one “screw you conservatives!” away from getting his senile ass handed to him.
And McCain is corrupt and stupid enough to do it.
Don’t get too confident about McCain.
He’s as dumb as a doorknob and absolutely insane.
TexasJew on March 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM
Don’t count Shrillary out too soon. Look.
My hope is she’ll win Ohio, and LOSE Texas. Regardless, she needs enough strength to sue to reinstate the Florida and Michigan votes. She sues, pits the feminists against the racists, and fracture the party.
petefrt on March 3, 2008 at 9:42 PM
I’m not sure that it’s necessary or advisable to have a big GOP crossover to keep HRC in the race. Part of the point is for the Democrats to get blamed if Obama flounders. One of the reasons that some hispanic Dems are thinking of voting for Obama is surely that they want black support if a hispanic Dem candidate runs in the future. Everything is being watched closely and it’s probably best to resist temptation play it straight.
Still I so look forward to a conflict-unresolved Dem convention in Denver.
ForNow on March 3, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Either Hillary or McCain. Obama and Huckabee don’t need to win TX and suddenly think they have some kind of primary mandate or something.
funky chicken on March 3, 2008 at 9:46 PM
“And McCain is corrupt and stupid enough to do it.
Don’t get too confident about McCain.
He’s as dumb as a doorknob and absolutely insane.”
Aahh another “Conservative” Jew making the rest of us look like looney asshats, thanks Wolfowitz.
Squid Shark on March 3, 2008 at 9:48 PM
AMEN The Lord does work in mysterious ways.
funky chicken on March 3, 2008 at 9:50 PM
I’m having a tough time deciding whether to switch registration to vote for the Hildebeest in PA. I have a primary that has a somewhat important vote. I think as long as we don’t end up with a deluge, we can probably get the seat back. Its gonna depend on whether Hillary gets stomped in TX and OH or not, I have till mid March to re-register.
doubleplusundead on March 3, 2008 at 9:51 PM
“I think everyone needs to remember the Big Picture. It is very plausable that a Democrat will take the White House, but if enough Conservative Republicans are elected in the House and Senate, we can hopefully ensure we will not go down a a very dark road that the US will take a very long time to return from.”
It will be too late then, the President does not need congress to EFF up the WOT.
Squid Shark on March 3, 2008 at 9:51 PM
“Don’t get too confident about McCain.
He’s as dumb as a doorknob and absolutely insane.
TexasJew on March 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM”
Oh good, another Conservative Jew making the rest of us look like asshats, thanks Wolfowitz.
Crist is a good governor, and he is managing to be a good governor of the whole state, without blowing off large segments of the population, a sizable feat in FL.
Squid Shark on March 3, 2008 at 9:56 PM
She. Will. Get. Thumped. In. Texas.
Then again, if she wins, it won’t be the first crow I’ve BBQd this election cycle.
Gonna be a crazy year.
Limerick on March 3, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Well, no, but it’s complicatable.
Mark V. on March 3, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Yeah, the equation has changed a bit in the last few days. Hillary’s negatives are all old news, and unless the media is trying to immunize Obama early, she may be a little harder to handle in the general. He’s pretty vulnerable to new dirt, but somehow I get the feeling his supporters will sulk more and stay at home in larger numbers if he loses the nomination.
a capella on March 3, 2008 at 10:24 PM
If north Texas has an ice day tomorrow (at believe me it doesn’t take much snow/ice to keep people home here) the Dem vote will be less then expected. We have about 1-2 inches now. I know you northerners will laugh, but that is enough to keep all the EMTs busy all night. Love those Texas drivers.
Limerick on March 3, 2008 at 10:35 PM
I’m in DFW and I had firmly made up my mind to vote for cankles to keep her in the race to keep fighting the Big O.
But then learned that if I did that, I couldn’t vote for the other important local primary candidates and the three issues which are on the ballot and which are important to me.
So I decided to vote gop for the things I care about. I won’t vote for McC either in the primary, but will in the fgeneral (he’s going to win big in Texas anyway). So in the primary, since he’s on the ballot, I’ll vote for the candidate I wanted in the first place, Fred Dalton Thompson. It’s an empty gesture, but it’s my empty gesture.
I think hil’s in it for the long run, no matter what happens tomorrow. The Big O, is cracking around the seams and the press is starting to smell blood in the water. They won’t be able to help themselves. I have no enthusiasm for McC, but I believe he can beat either one of the dem clowns. And I don’t want to throw our Troops to the dogs.
Gonna be fun to watch how all this plays out.
techno_barbarian on March 3, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Totally agree. If hil steals the nomination, like it looks like she’s going to, that’s going to dispirit a lot of the youthfully idealistic, and they’ll pout and protest by not showing up in November.
Works for me.
techno_barbarian on March 3, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Well she’s got her broom
And she’s cruising through Texas and Ohio now
Seems she forgot all about her eleven primary losses
Like she told her old man now
And with all the Obama bashing
Goes cruising on her broom just as fast as she can now
And she’ll throw poo, poo, poo
Til the voters take her broom away
(She’ll throw poo, poo, poo til the voters take her broom away)
MB4 on March 3, 2008 at 10:40 PM
If she claws her way back to the nomination, she can kiss the black vote goodbye. Not that Mav will get it, but protest stay home vote of the century.
THE CHOSEN ONE on March 3, 2008 at 10:46 PM
I know that its hard for good, god-fearing, decent Republicans to engage in the kind of twisted triangulation that it takes to get behind the duplicitous act of cross-over voting for the Hillimonster. . .but I think that Rush is right: Getting behind HRC to give her enough ooommmmpf to throw the nomination to the convention, and then with her dirty tricks, to getting the nomination, will cause the implosion of the Democratic party.
I understand this notion that the Dems will simply allign behind whichever: But I don’t think that that takes into account the real race-based divisions that have and are developing between HRC supporters, and the deluded BHO supporters who are seeing him as the savior of the race.
If we help HRC “steal” – as BHO supporters will view it – the nomination from the messiah, then they will destroy one another.
Texas and Ohio: VOTE HILL!
seanrobins on March 3, 2008 at 10:54 PM
I pretty much quit listening to news and radio lately, but was driving back home from a meeting last Friday and heard Michael Steele standing in for Hewitt on the radio. Those black voters you mention would have someplace to go if McC picked Steele for VP.
I think it would historic justice for the first black POTUS to be Republican in 2012. Steele’s a fantastic role model with a great story and message, not just for Black Americans, but ALL Americans.
techno_barbarian on March 3, 2008 at 10:57 PM
I haven’t read all the comments, so pardon me, and I mean no offense — truly — to my A-A friends here and at home, but I gotta say it: can you even imagine the depressing effect that a Hillary comeback will have on the black vote in the general election?
I mean, can you?
Jaibones on March 3, 2008 at 11:05 PM
Paul;
Sometimes you have to fall on the grenade for the team. Do it. Push the Hillary button.Do it for the Team.
steve007 on March 3, 2008 at 11:05 PM
Oops.
Jaibones on March 3, 2008 at 11:06 PM
He’s also a pro-amnesty moderate.
Do. Not. Want.
someone on March 3, 2008 at 11:12 PM
You sure? Not what it says here.
Or here.
Got a link to the contrary?
techno_barbarian on March 3, 2008 at 11:31 PM
What is this “our side” you speak of? Is it the McCain platform? That is certainly not MY side.
I’m staying home in November. Vote if you want to, but McCain, Obama… makes no difference. MY side isn’t represented by any of the candidates.
dm60462 on March 4, 2008 at 12:07 AM
The more I find out about Obama the more confident that McCain can beat Obama
bnelson44 on March 4, 2008 at 12:13 AM
How could she be worse than Obama?
Since you previously asked “what could possibly go wrong,” I’ll tell you:
She might be a stronger general election candidate than Obama. And Republicans’ actions might give her the boost she needs to become the general election candidate.
That’s what could go wrong!
On the upside, all of the liberals around me who are swooning for Obama would have their hearts broken. That’s almost worth having a Hillary presidency with its tearing up of free trade treaties, abandonment of our allies, socialization of our economy at home (especially the nontrivial fraction devote to healthcare), and general feminization of our country . . . almost, but not quite.
daryl_herbert on March 4, 2008 at 12:38 AM
I voted early last Thursday. I voted for Fred Thompson. I know that he’s no longer in the race, but I don’t care; he’s the man that was closest to my thinking and values.
Theophile on March 4, 2008 at 1:14 AM
Jaibones,
YES, I CAN!! Which is why I’ll be voting for the Glacier tomorrow. I love a bloody, knockdown drag out political brawl. When the Dems are having it.
Pablo on March 4, 2008 at 3:00 AM
I live in liberal Austin (like Texas Dan) and I voted for Hillary. I held my nose, but did it. In fact, I intend to caucus tonight for her and take my teenage son so he can learn from the experience.
Here is my logic:
1. The Obama folks are so emotional and weird right now that in a very close primary that could be decided in Denver, a very high number of them could potentially switch to McCain out of spite.
2. Even if Hillary takes Ohio and is close in Texas, there will be a bloody battle over the MI and FL delegates. Clinton will fight dirty, as she has been trained to do.
3. Hate to say it, but I trust her more than Obama on national security, and Obama will be beholden to his wacky netroots friends who helped push him in the front runner position. He’s just naive and very frightening.
4. I can still, and will, vote for McCain in the general.
My only real pangs of conscience came from down ballot contests. In reality, Travis County will always choose the Democrats, though, and particularly in a very high democratic turnout that we are seeing here. So, I voted for the most insane democrats that I knew would lose to any respectable democrat or republican.
That was my logic. FWIW, I can also understand those that want to finish the Clinton run once and for all. I’m just having too much fun watching tin foil hats explode.
Oh—and to whomever asked about a Republican caucus, no, here in Texas only the Democrats have the “Texas Two Step.” The Republicans have a normal, rational primary.
kathy from austin on March 4, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Hillary supporters are twice as likely to cross over to McCain in November than Osama supporters. If she backs into (“steals”) the nomination, many of his disciples are likely to not show up in November, but if she wins in a more legitimate manner, they might stay. For these reasons, I believe my logic of crossing over for the messiah today is sound, despite what talk radio says. My most powerful vote against a Clinton occurs today, and as a conservative, I must try and put a stake in the heart of the Clinton dynasty.
Think_b4_speaking on March 4, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Looks obvious to me that it is a stuffed animal that is designed to rest in a “sitting up” position as if “begging”.
crosspatch on March 4, 2008 at 12:25 PM
I’m a Texas Republican, and will be crossing over to the democratic primary today. I know Allah is urging us to strategically vote Hillary, and I would if I was sure enough that McCain could beat her. But I don’t want to take much risk Hillary will be the eventual President. So I ran a classic “Game Theory” equation (“A Beautiful Mind” anyone?)to see which match up gives me the most utility. First I assigned relative values of utility to each candidate.
-McCain = 10 (my top choice)
-Obama = 5
-Clinton = 1 (Extremly low utility)
Next I assigned percentages of likelihood of McCain winning. So here’s my percentages:
-Chance of McCain over Obama: 30%
-Chance of McCain over Clinton: 60%
Then I combined the two to see which match-up gave me the highest value:
-McCain vs. Obama = (10 x 30%) + (5 x 70%)= 6.5
-McCain vs. Clinton = (10 x 60%) + (1 x 40%) = 6.4
Sorry Allah, it’s close but it looks like I get more utility out of an Obama/McCain match-up (6.5 to 6.4). For me I just can’t take much risk that Hillary ends up the eventual President.
jputch on March 4, 2008 at 2:39 PM