Report: Sadr likely to extend ceasefire with U.S. by another six months; Update: Schism?
posted at 10:33 am on February 21, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Short of “Sadr dead, Mahdi Army disbands,” this is as close as you’re going to get to good news on this subject. Not a sufficient condition for increasing stability over the next six months but an absolutely necessary one:
Powerful Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is expected to extend a six-month ceasefire by his Mehdi Army militia, two senior officials in his movement confirmed for the first time on Thursday.
They said Sadr had issued a declaration to preachers to be read during midday prayers on Friday at mosques affiliated with the cleric, whose militia was blamed for fuelling sectarian violence with minority Sunni Muslims in 2006 and 2007…
“Sayed (Sadr) has distributed sealed envelopes to the imams of the mosques to be read tomorrow. They cannot be opened before tomorrow.”
Another senior official in Sadr’s movement, speaking from the holy Shi’ite city of Najaf where Sadr has offices, said the cleric would likely extend the truce for another six months.
Why’d he do it? His political power’s gradually waning so he shouldn’t want to wait and give the Iraqi government a chance to marginalize him. Possible explanations: (a) he hasn’t finished cleaning out his gutters yet; (b) he wants his big comeback to be as Khomeini-esque as possible; (c) he’s afraid for whatever reason that he’d be outgunned right now by SCIRI, possibly due to behind-the-scenes support they’re getting from the U.S. and/or Iran; or (d) he’s waiting for the presidential campaign to wear on a bit before making his move. If the new extension is for six months, he could call it off in August and launch a thousand headlines about Iraq collapsing again just in time for the election. Is Mookie shrewd enough to do that? No, but Iran surely is.
Update: Roggio wonders if some of Sadr’s aren’t going to decide that the ceasefire’s over for them even if it isn’t for him and break away.
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Option E) He’s decided to stay in the Bahamas for an additional 6 months, because the weather there is simply fantastic!
amerpundit on February 21, 2008 at 10:36 AM
He’s waiting for Barry Hussein. End of story.
Too bad, because if he would have ended his “cease fire” we could have sent him to join his recently departed Hezbollah friend.
funky chicken on February 21, 2008 at 10:38 AM
I still don’t understand why this guy is still alive.
Midas on February 21, 2008 at 10:40 AM
E) because he’d end up dead and his ‘army’ would get their asses kicked.
tomk59 on February 21, 2008 at 10:40 AM
He’s waiting for the Annointed One to pull the troops out to start the genocide.
ihasurnominashun on February 21, 2008 at 10:45 AM
testing…posted 3 times on the McCain thread and nothing showed up.
Connie on February 21, 2008 at 10:46 AM
Maybe Sadr saw the show last night.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 21, 2008 at 10:48 AM
Reminds me of a Richard Pryor bit where a guy was trying to pick a fight with Jim Brown in some bar. Jim Brown invited the man’s friends, who were restraining him, to let him go so he could better express himself. The man said under his breath, “If any one of you m#$&*@#&^%#s take a hand of of me I’ll kill him…”
Akzed on February 21, 2008 at 10:48 AM
http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/014022.php
funky chicken on February 21, 2008 at 10:48 AM
Option d). The donks have to know what awaits them if they capitulate over there. I just can’t think they will roll over that far for the left fringe and accept the blast of adverse public opinion for the carnage that ensues. They don’t give a damn about the bloodshed or devaluing our guy’s sacrifices, but I do trust their political self centeredness and cynicism.
a capella on February 21, 2008 at 10:49 AM
A sex scandal with a Camel lobbyist is about to break.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 21, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Told ya. Mookie is posturing because his political power is fracturing, though still in existence. If he would have declared war, the current government led by maliki’s Dawa and SIIC (or ISCI) - and the Ministry of defense led by an independent Sunni - would have directed the Iraqi Army to snuff him once and for all, with the full blessing of the Sunnis and Kurds. Since he’s marginalized from his Shia blocs, he’s got less and less friends. The move would have caused big problems for America politically, but it also likely would have been the end of the Sadrist movement in the incarnation led by the famous cleric’s son, at least.
BillINDC on February 21, 2008 at 10:54 AM
Oh I can’t wait to see what al- Sadr is going to do the exact moment B.O. is officially in power. Let’s see, what is the Arabic equivalent of “CHARGE!!!!!”?
pilamaye on February 21, 2008 at 10:58 AM
An “accident” should have taken Sadr out the equation years ago.
fogw on February 21, 2008 at 11:00 AM
Like all gangsters, this is about business, and war is bad for business. War is even less appealing when no war is a viable option. When the choice is between war and peace, the choice is obvious. Then the choice is between war and slightly more war, why not cry havoc?
BohicaTwentyTwo on February 21, 2008 at 11:04 AM
A little inside baseball: the sadrist legislators brokered a deal with the Kurds to get the Provincial Powers Act passed, so that the subsequent Elections Act could be drafted and passed, so that they could have provincial elections, so the Sadrists could get some seats in provincial governments in S. Iraq. They aren’t going to want to go to war while pursuing those options.
BillINDC on February 21, 2008 at 11:10 AM
“The USA Navy successfully shot down a satellite. In other news: Sadr extends … .”
davidk on February 21, 2008 at 11:16 AM
Just yesterday he was going to cancel the cease fire.
rockhauler on February 21, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Isn’t there a rival faction to Sadr down that way besides the Iraqi Security Force? I’d like to get one of their hats.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 21, 2008 at 11:24 AM
If this guy sticks his head out a door we should blow it off. If everything is true about the present situation settling down in Iraq then the Iraqis will be relieved that the trouble maker is gone.
peacenprosperity on February 21, 2008 at 11:30 AM
It’s like some kind of deranged Oscars. Oh wait, ok, I guess the real Oscars are… ok, I take that back.
dave_lantos on February 21, 2008 at 11:41 AM
If we still had a CIA that was worth its salt it would have happened in 04′.
C-Low on February 21, 2008 at 11:41 AM
What if we just kidnapped him a little?
- The Cat
MirCat on February 21, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Sealed envelopes? And the Oscar goes to…
G on February 21, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Yea, the best Sadr would be no Sadr, but I’ll take a continued cease fire while our guys keep winning hearts and minds.
The thought of him trying to unleash hell right before the election is a bit scary though.
BadgerHawk on February 21, 2008 at 1:13 PM
He has lost effective control over the organization and he would look stupid if he didn’t extend it and only a few decided to fight. He can have the most power by threatening to end the ceasefire (as if he has more control over things than he does) and then at the last minute extend it as to maintain the status quo … which means we continue tearing apart his network anytime one of the lower commanders steps out of line.
crosspatch on February 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/20/wirq120.xml
I’m in Basrah and I’d love to know what cease fire he is talking about? We’ve been getting hammered over here. It’s not a cease fire if only ONE group ceases fire!
JetBlast on February 21, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Yes, yes and yes.
labrat on February 21, 2008 at 2:16 PM
I am so sick of these little piss ant “clerics” acting like they hold all the cards.
Muslims are the only people in the world that can loose a war and then run around trying to dictate the conditions for peace.
labrat on February 21, 2008 at 2:21 PM
sorry, that’s lose not loose
labrat on February 21, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Good point.
labrat on February 21, 2008 at 3:01 PM