Predictions: Wisconsin
posted at 9:45 am on February 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Last chance to check our gal for a pulse before they hit her with the Texas/Ohio defibrillator on March 4. The trends ain’t good — trailing in every poll taken this month except ARG’s weekend survey, and that lead is already gone with the wind. The Messiah’s internal numbers have him up seven; take that as the baseline for your over/under. Under’s traditionally a safe pick with him, although not lately. If he does better than expected even in a state set up for her demographically, what’s left?
Even if you prefer him to her, root for the upset tonight. If she pulls it off, not only does the campaign go negative but the odds of this clusterfark coming to pass increase exponentially. If you thought the prospect of superdelegates deciding the nomination was awesomely awesome, replete as it is with vote buying and odious racial politics, wait until the pledged delegates start getting bought and sold. Exit question: How on earth does Hillary hope to get a strong turnout in November if she wins the nomination by leaning on the delegates Obama won fair and square to flip?
Update: Karl reminds me of a point made in one of the Politico articles. How is Hillary supposed to leverage her dubious cred as a superior commander-in-chief to Obama in a Democratic primary? If she hits him from the right on terror, it may help with white men but at the cost of giving Obama an excuse to revisit her Iraq vote and paint her as a continuation of Bush. If that strategy worked, she’d have tried it already.
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I’m picking the witch tonight in an upset, and in Texas. Obamamessiah gave her the perfect ammunition with his speech trading.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 9:50 AM
She will get it ultimately. I refuse to believe that her machine will be defeated until I ’see it to believe it’. Hope it happens, but they will do absolutely anything.
Starlink on February 19, 2008 at 9:51 AM
Why no love for Hawaii? Sure, they may be Obama’s home state, but they vote today too and delegates are delegates. You wouldn’t have ignored New York, wouldya? ;)
Aloha Hawaii!
Jack M. on February 19, 2008 at 9:56 AM
I personally hope The Shillster gets her collective clock cleaned in Wisconsin tonight, just so we can watch Bubba Billy throw yet another grand mal hissy fit at the next rally he slithers into.
pilamaye on February 19, 2008 at 10:01 AM
I think Hillary will be routed. I haven’t seen barely any Hillary tags here in Madison, but I have seen quite a few Obama ones. The general feel I get from libs I talk to is that they don’t like her.
Three below zero right now. You think I’m going out in that to choose vote for one of two liberals or an isolationist kook? Fuhgeddaboutit.
MadisonConservative on February 19, 2008 at 10:04 AM
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but even though I implemented the MKH-tested/Uncle Jimbo-approved messing with the ‘Rats, I don’t see Clinton winning Wisconsin. My semi-expanded predictions:
1st Congressional (far southeast Wisconsin):
Dems - Obama 51%, Clinton 48% (each gets 3 delegates)
Pubs - McCain 54%, Huckabee 44% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
2nd Congressional (Madison and surrounding areas):
Dems - Clinton 50%, Obama 50% (each gets 4 delegates)
Pubs - McCain 52%, Huckabee 42% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
3rd Congressional (southwest Wisconsin):
Dems - Clinton 51%, Obama 48% (each gets 3 delegates)
Pubs - McCain 50%, Huckabee 47% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
4th Congressional (city of Milwaukee and selected high-union suburbs):
Dems - Obama 74%, Clinton 22% (Obama gets 5 delegates, Clinton gets 1)
Pubs - McCain 53%, Huckabee 43% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
5th Congressional (north and northwest suburbs of Milwaukee; includes 2 of the most-Republican counties in the country):
Dems - Clinton 52%, Obama 47% (Clinton gets 3 delegates, Obama 2)
Pubs - McCain 56%, Huckabee 42% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
6th Congressional (east-central Wisconsin):
Dems - Clinton 56%, Obama 42% (Clinton gets 3 delegates, Obama 2)
Pubs - McCain 52%, Huckabee 46% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
7th Congressional (northwest Wisconsin):
Dems - Obama 50%, Clinton 49% (each get 3 delegates)
Pubs - McCain 49%, Huckabee 40%, Paul 10% (only district Paul gets anywhere near double-digits, McCain gets 3 delegates)
8th Congressional (northeast Wisconsin):
Dems - Obama 51%, Clinton 49% (each get 3 delegates)
Pubs - McCain 52%, Huckabee 46% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
Statewide:
Dems - Obama 52%, Clinton 46% (Obama gets 14 at-large delegates to get 39 total, Clinton gets 12 at-large delegates to get 35 total)
Pubs - McCain 53%, Huckabee 43%, Paul 4% (McCain gets 16 at-large delegates to get all 40 total)
steveegg on February 19, 2008 at 10:04 AM
Tears,
Payola,
Cackles,
And the old standby ….. “I had no personal knowledge of anyone pressuring delegates.”
fogw on February 19, 2008 at 10:05 AM
Obama takes it. He offers the biggest public dole and Milwaukee and Madison won’t be able to resist that. Those two cities lock up the rest of the state.
Limerick on February 19, 2008 at 10:08 AM
The real question is:
If Hillary loses the nomination…how long before divorce proceedings?
scottm on February 19, 2008 at 10:12 AM
Wisconsin is so close to Illinois that the Baramalamania spills over…..plus, the People’s Republic of Madison like him, too. He’s got it in the bag. What time do the Hill tears flow?
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on February 19, 2008 at 10:12 AM
scottm on February 19, 2008 at 10:12 AM
Smartest guy in the room.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:12 AM
January 20, 2009
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on February 19, 2008 at 10:13 AM
Thanks for the PW link, AP.
On the CinC issue, I would argue that she should raise it - despite Iraq - because: (a) for whatever reason, Dems rate her higher on it… despite Iraq; and (b) Iraq isn’t the only issue a CinC faces. A smart campaign would have done the focus grouping/polling to determine the reason for (a) and exploit it. A smart candidate would figure out which issues from Armed Services boost her to his detriment.
Karl on February 19, 2008 at 10:14 AM
Guess I’m hoping the suburbs come in heavily for her. As for the weather, if we’re not used to it by now, we’ll never be.
steveegg on February 19, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Exactly what we should hope for. I’m pessimistic though. Obama wins tonight and probably wins Texas. Even if Hill edges him in Texas he’ll do well enough with the delegates in that state to strengthen his claim to being inevitable.
dedalus on February 19, 2008 at 10:18 AM
Root. Root.
[Phew, that's even harder than I thought.]
petefrt on February 19, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Ref the update……In the next week, as she slips further and further down in Texas polling, I expect her to suddenly offer up ‘immediate’ withdrawl. It truly is the only issue that separates her from O. The defeatocrats have such a firm lock on her party that it will be her final attempt to change their minds. Bye Hill. The Patriot upset is nothing compared to this.
Limerick on February 19, 2008 at 10:22 AM
BTW…voting started in Texas today (good for Hillary). It will run until a couple of days before the primary.
Limerick on February 19, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Didn’t I read somewhere that Obama has contributed almost $700,000 to campaign coffers for superdelegates, including $10,000 for Robert Byrd? If so, the bidding contest is on.
a capella on February 19, 2008 at 10:25 AM
Come on, dude. We haven’t had a winter like this in 15 years. This has been brutal.
MadisonConservative on February 19, 2008 at 10:28 AM
funky chicken on February 19, 2008 at 10:35 AM
It looks to me like theat damn McCain is going to win in November. Obama has that mouthy black panther wife that will turn people off, and Hillary will be pretty ragged after the current campaign let alone a follow up.
Slow and steady wins the race, and McCain will do that.
saiga on February 19, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Too far from the mainland, too many time zones west of the East Coast Media Cabal (it doesn’t start until midnight NYC time), and too few delegates up (only 20).
There’s also Washington State’s primary, where 19 Republican delegates are up for grabs.
steveegg on February 19, 2008 at 10:45 AM
More like 25 years, when all the rage was The Next Ice Age™.
steveegg on February 19, 2008 at 10:46 AM
I don’t buy that her goint total anti-war as an issue that would gain her much in Texas. Even the democrats (other then Austin) are somewhat pro-miltary, defense and neutral on Iraq. She is going to be be hurt in Texas because she miscalculated the delegate apportnment formula and spent her time and money in the wrong places.
jimwesty on February 19, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Sorry for my thick fingers (and believe me they are)…
I wasn’t implying it would help, just saying she is desperate and the issue of the troop levels is the only real difference between her and Obama. As Texas slips away I believe the ‘machine’ will grasp at that last straw to
try to hold onto the party, swing the far lefties away from Obama.
Limerick on February 19, 2008 at 10:54 AM
If the weather in ’sconnie is anything like here in Minnesota, it’s going to be pretty darn cold- don’t know how that’ll affect the urban Obama vote.
That said, the average Wisconsinite has enough ethanol-based antifreeze running through their bloodstream that frostbite shouldn’t be a problem.
Hopefully McCain will pull off a win, only so we don’t have to listen to the Huckster justifying his self-obsessed decision to stay in the race.
Hollowpoint on February 19, 2008 at 11:10 AM
Did you really want to start the annual war early? :-)
Seriously, that ethanol-based antifreeze is the only way to survive in the land of ice cream and frozen beer.
steveegg on February 19, 2008 at 11:18 AM
Do not diminish the Cheese-Head FIB (effin’ Illinois bastards) factor, They hate people from IL,Obama being from Chicago puts a bit of a damper on him right there.
bbz123 on February 19, 2008 at 11:41 AM
As much as I dislike the concept of strategic voting, I agree w/ AP - the prospect of open warfare and backroom delegate deals during the Dem convention here in Denver is too crazy delicious not to promote.
If it comes down to a brokered (broken?) convention, I’ll be able to climb the hogback and watch the fireworks (fireball?) from a safe distance.
CliffHanger on February 19, 2008 at 11:53 AM
I agree that as Texas as slips away her message will go to whatever extreme the “machine” thinks will pull her skirts out of the fire. I seems she will have to go left, which I feel will have a net neg. effect for her.
jimwesty on February 19, 2008 at 12:02 PM
The irony is, I really think she would have won easily if she would have filed last year or so. The independent women, would have done her good, instead she is overshadowed and is basically a “kept” women by her ex-president and wholly untrusted (loved but untrusted) hubby…stand by your man and lose.
right2bright on February 19, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Negative 3. Ouch. Yesterday we had a mild day in the 60’s here in MA. Of course, it was accompanied by 40 mph gusts, horrid visibility, and some rain, heavy in parts, to make up for it.
It’s too bad about that global warming thing Madcon. Did Al Gore recently speak in your area?
BKennedy on February 19, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Obama wins, but by a sliver. The drive-by’s will say it is a default win for Hillary as Obama will have had to count on Madison to pull it out for him. Only defeats by democrats are considered wins by the MSM.
Obama 51%
Hillary 49%
SouthernGent on February 19, 2008 at 12:39 PM
It’s been the candidates here that have caused the week-long Gorebal “Warming”, complete with ice in Milwaukee on Sunday. Of course, the good news (especially for MadisonConservative) is that the presence of Obama actually caused them to salt the streets; the Peoples’ Republic of Madistan generally don’t salt too much.
steveegg on February 19, 2008 at 12:46 PM
It could be worse…HRC could be losing to this super black man.
right2bright on February 19, 2008 at 12:57 PM
The Bradley-Wilder effect kicks in throughout working class WI, and Obamamania without the mania can’t motivate kids and yuppies to brave the cold. The college kids will stay wrapped up at home around warm bhongs, focusing on the Change They Can Fantasize About. 50-50 - though it’s a moral victory for Hillary so long as the networks don’t call the election at the moment polls close.
(All based on little more than wishful thinking…)
CK MacLeod on February 19, 2008 at 12:58 PM
All you guys making fun of global warming here is proof.
right2bright on February 19, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Doom
ThePrez on February 19, 2008 at 4:01 PM
Wearing a cheese head hat will not even “Change” the outcome.
MSGTAS on February 20, 2008 at 9:04 AM