Exit polls: Wisconsin; Update: Fox calls it for Obama; Update: Obama breaks out?
posted at 6:03 pm on February 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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We’re almost three hours away, I believe, from the polls closing but some data’s already trickling in. The early signs — change over experience, 27% turnout among independents (63-34 for Obama, per Fox), no meaningful margin on the C-in-C question — bode ill. Megyn Kelly’s on now and says Hillary won women … by only two points, and unions … by only one point.
Standby for updates.
Update: Mutnemom?
Update: All right, back by popular demand, here’s the Truther video that I originally posted. The boss’s complicity is alluded to near the end.
Update: Geraghty’s hearing 60-40(!) after two waves of exit poll data. How can that be if Hillary holds a 51-49 lead among women, who typically vote in greater numbers than men in Democratic primaries? Did men break 75-25 for Barry O?
Update: Coming soon: “It’s about picking a president who relies not just on words – but on work, hard work, to get America back to work. Someone who’s not just in the speeches business – but will get America back in the solutions business.”
Update: A “huge win.” Awful.
The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters — women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes — while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.
Update: Hillary supporters will be satisfied if Obama’s the nominee. Obama supporters if Hillary’s the nominee? Not so much.
Update: Results should be coming in any minute now. As usual, CNN and Politico are updating.
Update: 9 p.m. Megyn Kelly says in fact it was Obama who edged Hillary by two points among women. Good lord.
Update: No surprise — McCain wins easily. Minor surprise — The Democratic race is too close to call for the moment, which means it wasn’t 60/40.
McCain wins even among talk radio listeners.
Update: Exit polls are out. 55-43, according to MSNBC. Obama wins men by 26 points and white men by 21 points, and white voters overall 53-46.
Update: Here we go. At 9:19, Fox calls it for the Messiah.
Update: Jay Cost, ever reluctant to bestow the big “M” on any candidate, seems ready to lay it on the Messiah:
These numbers tell the tale succinctly. Clinton suffered significant loses across many of her core constituencies. White women, Democrats, union workers, downscale voters, and white Catholics all drifted to Obama last night - some so much that Obama actually won them.
Is this a momentum effect? The word “momentum” has been tossed around way too much this cycle, which is funny because prior to tonight there has really been little evidence of momentum at all! So, what of last night? Are these bona fide expansions in his voting coalition, or was Wisconsin following the same pattern that the previous states had? It is hard to say…
My sense is that there is some kind of momentum effect going on here. That is, Obama’s victories - most recently last week in the Potomac Primary - contributed to last night’s victory, though he would have done very well if there had been no momentum. This is the first Democratic contest where I think a case like this can be made. Until last night the typical ebb-and-flow of each candidate’s demographic strengths could account for the actual results.
If this is momentum, Clinton should be very nervous.
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Hopenosis
ninjapirate on February 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Keep talkin about the war. Provide us with bytes.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
malkinmania on February 19, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Better than Malaria…..dumb ass! Life is like a box of chocolates….try to understand how FORTUNITE we are, and that requires us to speak/stand/fight for those who are NOT.
dmann on February 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Worried fools.
amerpundit on February 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Bush and the media, not explaining Saddam’s connections to Al-Qaeda and terrorism and letting this myth keep going is killing repubs.
jp on February 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Oh, hold on, he is sending more troops into Afghanistan, that won’t cost any money I guess.
bnelson44 on February 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Dude… seriously… you are looking for “common sense” from a bunch of whacked-out far-left liberal loons who have carried undying hate with them for 8 long years ????
Always Right on February 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
He going to sit down with bin-Laden or Iran?
bnelson44 on February 19, 2008 at 10:12 PM
OK, I’ve had enough of this guy
bnelson44 on February 19, 2008 at 10:13 PM
The perennial socialist/utopian overreach.
He’s going to go against human nature and “end the mindset that leads to war”.
Good luck with that Barry.
Nothing personal man but NO ONE is that gifted.
Deety on February 19, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Obama’s speech should fire up the base.
Everything he says irks me.
Domino on February 19, 2008 at 10:15 PM
This is why Id rather face Barry in the big election…this stuff is gold!
malkinmania on February 19, 2008 at 10:16 PM
Barry?
bnelson44 on February 19, 2008 at 10:16 PM
He just changed McCains words from 100 years of presence to 100 years of war in Iraq. Will barry pull us out of South Korea too, its been awhile there. The Muslim is coming out in him now.
malkinmania on February 19, 2008 at 10:17 PM
BHO’s nick-name in HS
Deety on February 19, 2008 at 10:17 PM
You can`t stair directly at the sun.
Obama: YES I CAN!
ThePrez on February 19, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Is it over yet?
I’ve been hidng between the threads.
fogw on February 19, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Even the crowd looks bored now. It’s obvious he’s hogging the camera for PRIME TIME TV. Not a bad strategy…too bad he’s not saying anything.
SouthernGent on February 19, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Against this class warfare socialist rookie, McAmensty might just have a chance.
paulsur on February 19, 2008 at 10:18 PM
How long is this damn speech gonna go on?
infidel65 on February 19, 2008 at 10:19 PM
But… but…
You dont understand. Barry has HOPE.
oh, and also, he is the Messiah. The Anointed One. I sure didn’t want to forget to mention THAT….
Always Right on February 19, 2008 at 10:19 PM
Obama seems to have deflected today’s static about his plagiarism and his wife’s Blame America First attitude with a pot pouri of statements on “the issues” and a reaffirmation of his unity message.
Wow. Not sure whether I’m impressed or depressed.
I’m beginning to think I agree with Barak. Just words.
petefrt on February 19, 2008 at 10:20 PM
So, is a high thread count more comfortable?
Deety on February 19, 2008 at 10:20 PM
He`s totally going all John Kerry now. HEJUSTKEEPSTALKINGANDTALKINGANDTALKINGANDTALKINGANDTALKING.
ThePrez on February 19, 2008 at 10:21 PM
HOW TO YOU RETREAT WHEN YOUR WINNING?
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:21 PM
You called it on Intrade. He’s at 80.
I stand corrected.
commissar on February 19, 2008 at 10:22 PM
He’s babbling now.
infidel65 on February 19, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Castro Would be Proud of the Length of this Speech [Rich Lowry]
bnelson44 on February 19, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Here is a new HOT AIR Betting Game.
If Barry wins the election, then after he takes the Oath of Office,
what is the OVER/UNDER on the number of days it takes him to get in Air Force One, fly to Tehran, and officially SURRENDER.
Always Right on February 19, 2008 at 10:23 PM
The PATRIOTS didn’t wait around for someone to “give them a chance” Barry, that’s the whole frickin’ POINT!
Deety on February 19, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Lets see..no more Veterans under bridges..(I wonder where he got that line)
malkinmania on February 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Thank God.
Now back to reality.
fogw on February 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Jesus! By the time he finishes we’ll be half way through the 2012 election.
OK, he’s finally done.
infidel65 on February 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Yesterday v. Tomorrow [Rich Lowry]
Seriously, that didn’t take long: McCain is going to present himself as the candidate of experience; Obama is going to present him as the candidate of yesterday.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODFjMGI5MmYyZmQwNTA2NDY0ZTQ2ZDg5NjYwNTliNDU=
bnelson44 on February 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
“When we have CEO’s making more in 10 minutes than what normal workers make in a year…”
So if Obama is so against high paid business principals is he going to cut the Presidential salary to that of the woman who vacuums the oval office each night?
MrSteve on February 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
………..ANDTALKINGANDTALKINGANDTALKINGANDTALKINGANDTALKINGANDTALKING……….
ThePrez on February 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
He wont go..he’ll send Vice President Kerry to do it.
malkinmania on February 19, 2008 at 10:25 PM
This is bs. An hour with no specifics except “I’ll end the War”. I can’t believe what I’m watching. The dems wonder why they can’t win the White House.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:25 PM
His inflection and diction have similarities to Bill Cosby. That may be part of what’s behind the draw.
LevStrauss on February 19, 2008 at 10:26 PM
I just wasted an hour of my life listening to that shit.
infidel65 on February 19, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Was this a state of the union address? The networks should cut them off. I would.
SouthernGent on February 19, 2008 at 10:27 PM
IF ANY MCCAIN OPS ARE LISTENING, SEND MAVERICK TO IRAQ TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:28 PM
That would be a shame. I love it out here in the Southwest in the warmer months when they all come swarming out at sunset to go out hunting for insects. It truly is a spectacle of nature right in the middle of an urban environment. You would never know, walking by in the middle of the afternoon, that there are literally thousands of them sleeping away. Just amazing.
Oh, did he say veterans?
Never seen that.
Deety on February 19, 2008 at 10:29 PM
Hillary needs a Ohio State Buckeye endorsement.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:29 PM
Greg Oden for Hillary
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Woody Hayes for Hillary?
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:31 PM
Sermon on the Mount.
fogw on February 19, 2008 at 10:31 PM
Uh oh. McCain/Hillary?
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 19, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Need more tears there Hill….. see if that helps….
johnnyU on February 19, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Made me think of Monty Python’s Life of Brian.
“Blessed are the Cheesemakers.”
Always Right on February 19, 2008 at 10:34 PM
McCain/Lieberman because he needs money and urban suburbs.
Anything that will be offered to conservatives will be a joke or he will just not do it. He lies to the Religious Right just like he is lying to conservatives and he should still win the south because they will buy it with some coaxing. This guy is another Teddy Roosevelt, a complete egomaniac. He only cares about himself.
LevStrauss on February 19, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Heh.
SouthernGent on February 19, 2008 at 10:40 PM
What about authors of books that make more in 10 minutes than what normal workers make in a year? And the title to the book isn’t even his own either. The Audacity of Hope. Taken from a preacher’s sermon he happened to attend.
Sue on February 19, 2008 at 10:41 PM
The Class Warfare stuff didnt work for Gore in ‘00.
It didnt work for Kerry in ‘04.
It didnt work for Edwards in ‘08 primaries.
Why does Barry think its gonna suddenly sprout paydirt for him?
Oh, I forgot. He has HOPE.
Always Right on February 19, 2008 at 10:45 PM
Bill Clinton= Semen on the Mount
malkinmania on February 19, 2008 at 10:49 PM
malkinmania
Sorry if I jumped your shi%, We need not bring Bush into the fray! Fly the profile, Barry Yo is the adversary, we need to understand how difficult a target he is, every advantage is his (thanks objective MSM) How can pragmatic reality be brought to bare in order to shatter the veil of racial penance. Targets of opportunity are few and far between, best we understand that “low and slow” with McCain requires a steadfast commitment to conservative values regardless of what the briefing (MSM et.all) suggests!
dmann on February 19, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Okay, lets say George W said tonite, that he is shifting all troops to Afghanistan, a new phase of the war on terror. The Libs would go berserk! But yet Obama Hussein said virtually the same thing and those automatic applauders clapped away!! I dont know whether to laff or cry.
malkinmania on February 19, 2008 at 10:57 PM
Have Allah get some video of 10:56 MSNBC, some politician that supports Obama was asked to name an accomplishment as Senator and it is still awkward because he cannot name an accomplishment.
LevStrauss on February 19, 2008 at 10:57 PM
Foxnews calls WA for McCain he gets some delegates
bnelson44 on February 19, 2008 at 11:21 PM
Go McCain!
:)
Chakra Hammer on February 19, 2008 at 11:36 PM
I keep waiting for TickleDragon and her buds to weigh in with how they won’t support McCain under any circumstances. Maybe Ann and Rush can offer a guest appearance.
May as well start practicing saying President Obama.
Bradky on February 19, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Laugh….whole heartedly! The media soils their panties
when the bullets (there is an Alice in Chains/rooster verse that my Vodka soaked brain cannot recall)singe their coiffure styled skulls! Let them orally extract male reproductive fluid from Yo mama, this is the path the MSM chooses…lets resist!
dmann on February 19, 2008 at 11:41 PM
Shut up, Big Nose.
TexasDan on February 19, 2008 at 11:51 PM
I tried to stop Obama. I took multiple showers today after implementing some tactical voting, my aldermanic district went for Clinton, and my Congressional district (1st) is the closest Clinton came to a district win (50%-49% Obama with 59% reporting).
Meanwhile, there is a potential story brewing out of western Wisconsin. Huckabee is within 13 votes in the 3rd (soutwest Wisconsin, 83% reporting), and within 281 votes in the 7th (northwest Wisconsin, also 83% reporting).
steveegg on February 19, 2008 at 11:55 PM
Meanwhile, there is a potential story brewing out of western Wisconsin. Huckabee is within 13 votes in the 3rd (soutwest Wisconsin, 83% reporting), and within 281 votes in the 7th (northwest Wisconsin, also 83% reporting).
The cold does take a toll…!
dmann on February 20, 2008 at 12:07 AM
And it’s getting worse for McCain. Huckabee is now up in both districts (up 341 in the 3rd with 88% in, up 110 in the 7th with 87% in). There goes 6 delegates McCain wanted and any chance Huckabee stops before Texas.
steveegg on February 20, 2008 at 12:36 AM
May as well face facts: It’s Maverick vs. the Whipper-Snapper, Yoda vs. Luke, the old dude vs. the Grasshopper in the kung-fu temple. It’s Pei Mai vs. The Bride in “Kill Bill 2″. The exacting and terrible wheel of Tao shall roll on and grind all.
laelaps on February 20, 2008 at 12:52 AM
Getting worse? What planet have you been living on?
This has been a great night for the Mac! Crushing defeats for Huckster in Washington and Wisconsin mean that there’s much less pressure to turn him into VP. It’s great news though to keep Huck in the race through to March 4 and beyond for the sake of the general - the GOP needs all the publicity it can muster at the moment!
Pax americana on February 20, 2008 at 12:55 AM
Let’s face it:
elder statesman v. empty blatherer
experienced soldier v. inexperienced career politician
wisdom and action v. airhead and vacuous rhetoric
Grand old patriot v. green overhyped rebel
Experience v. Emptiness
fiscal control v. socialism on a grand scale
Looking good for McCain and the G.O.P !
Pax americana on February 20, 2008 at 1:03 AM
How is Obama going to offer “Change”?
The Democrats control the House and Senate, wouldn’t electing a Democrat be “More of the Same”?
as they like to say?
The Democrat Congress has a lower approval rating than the President.
Also, what about the Checks & Balances that they were griping about in 2004?
Kind of hypocritical, for them to vote Democrat now after telling us how important Checks & Balances was in 2004..
Chakra Hammer on February 20, 2008 at 2:31 AM
Not to change subjects but….if the Dumbos are contrite enough and McCain doesn’t come unglued, I am feeling like the Donks could be swept from the House and Senate now.
JonRoss on February 20, 2008 at 5:16 AM
ding dong…
Gartrip on February 20, 2008 at 7:26 AM
Did Obama break Hugo Chavez’s eight hour televised diatribe record last night?
Pcoop on February 20, 2008 at 7:52 AM
sniffle
…sniffle
Ya know, I wonder: what WILL it take to make Hillary accept defeat? Surely it’s not the good of the party ’cause she and Bill could care less. It’s not the math, or she’d have bailed last night. What will it take? Does anyone really picture her coming out and conceding after Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania? nofrigginway. What will it take to make her quit? I doubt there’s anything. I’m inclined to believe she will have to actually lose to the numbers, and even then she’s gonna fight to get Mich and Flor to count. If the DNC leaders get po’d, they can always offer to have fresh, do-over primaries in those states. Obamamentum would crush her, humiliate her, and cinch it in both.
btw, here in Ohio, I got a phone call from Hillary over the weekend inviting me to see Bill in Canton, and I got an anti-Obama call from Hillary on my machine last night. I even had some couple outta the blue ask me who I’m voting for while my wife and I were watching the kids play at the McDonald’s playground. Yeah, Hillary’s pushing hard, but this registered Democrat already plans to vote against her in the primary so go ahead Hillary…spend those illegal campaign contribution funds on calls to me, tv ads that rain down during local newscasts, and the radio ads. It’s little more than chum.
scottm on February 20, 2008 at 7:53 AM
What people fail to understand is that Obama WILL chnge the nation…just not for the better.
Pcoop on February 20, 2008 at 7:54 AM
Wonder if somewhere in the world right now, a team of Fat Ladies are getting ready to sing for Shillary?
pilamaye on February 20, 2008 at 7:58 AM
Uh huh. That’s exactly the narrative that McCain’s buds at CNN will run with. It won’t look anything like:
Old Crank vs. Young Buck
Grizzled Warmonger vs. Prince of Peace
Grim Doomsayer vs. The Word of Hope
Angry Relic vs. Passionate Reformer
Lehosh on February 20, 2008 at 9:34 AM
I fear Obama may be sandbagging us a bit. What few times I’ve heard him talk issues with detail, he can come across as a guy who has his sh##t together. He has the ability to project immense capability, never mind if his financial numbers make no sense, or his foreign policy blather is nonsensical. We shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking McCain will walk all over him in debate, just because we’ve stereotyped him as an empty suit with no legislative accomplishment. He is a very cunning, street smart guy. Remember, he is selling perception, rather than reality, and he may be able to chmooze his way right through any debates. Add to that, the obvious charisma differences and we may be a bit overconfident in thinking he will do poorly in debate against McCain.
a capella on February 20, 2008 at 9:42 AM
I just heard on FOX that folks don’t know as much about the other candidates as they do Hillary and that should be in her favor. Quite the contrary, we do know her history and thats why she’s going wheres she’s going…into the loser column. Its not just HER history, its her and her husband. Remember, she was the co-President last time, he would be it the next time and thats why she’s going where she’s going. The Clintons are bad news and America knows it now.
johnnyU on February 20, 2008 at 9:43 AM
Understatement of the past year…
right2bright on February 20, 2008 at 9:50 AM
I’m looking forward to being able on March 5
to feel Ex-Hillar(y)-ated.
And to finally being able to tell the Clintons:
“NO, YOU CAN’T!!!!”
Shirotayama on February 20, 2008 at 9:51 AM
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