Today’s poll shock: Obama up 6 in Texas
posted at 2:02 pm on February 15, 2008 by Bryan
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Hillary Clinton is up fast in Ohio and she’s betting on Texas to be her personal Battle of San Jacinto, the place where she has to win the war by routing her enemy after suffering a string of Alamo-like massacres. Along with OH, PA, RI, VT, HI, WY, MO, PR, WV, KY, OR, SD and WI (states you can hear Michelle sing in today’s Vent), Texas is a must have for Hillary. But ARG says it might be getting away.
Democrats TX
Clinton 42%
Obama 48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 7%
Hillary leads among self-described Democrats but among her other problems, in Texas she has a gender gap. The media will never call it that, but that’s what it is.
Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.
Hillary Clinton is a lot of things, but Sam Houston 2.0 isn’t one of them. And unlike Houston’s enemy, Santa Anna, Hillary won’t be able to catch Obama taking a nap.
The other bit of news in the ARG poll: McCain only leads Huckabee by 6, reflecting either McCain weakness or Huck strength in the Lone Star state. Or both.
Update (AP): I’ve goofed before on ARG for being an extreme outlier (especially vis-a-vis Fred), but if you want to see just how extreme, go here. You may have to scroll for awhile.
Rasmussen and Insider Advantage both have Lady Macbeth up, although the margin’s in question. And they’re, er, both also extreme outliers according to the Survey USA table.
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ARG simply sucks as a polling org. I think people are counting La Clinton out to fast.
zane on February 15, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Yeah. Stick a fork in Hillary. She’s done.
Andy in Agoura Hills on February 15, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Is this story about the obamamaniacs being upset that they cant visit their guy during the next texas debate. So is some sort of groundswell there.
TIme Mag
William Amos on February 15, 2008 at 2:07 PM
OK Caption Contest
Hillary on Valentines day
William Amos on February 15, 2008 at 2:08 PM
D’oh! Well, I’m considering crossing over for Hillary in TX. The closer their race is, the more Dem infighting there is, and the more entertainment for us.
aero on February 15, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Yep. TX is a must win for her. If Obama upsets her there, it’s over – OH and PA can’t recover that ground!
infidelpride on February 15, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I wonder if orders of Che T-shirts have increased in Texas?
Viva la Revolution!
jp on February 15, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Uh oh. Is this Texas going to have vote for a Clinton to keep hope alive?
terryannonline on February 15, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Clinton and Rage Boy shop at the same clothing store.
RushBaby on February 15, 2008 at 2:13 PM
ARG? I don’t put too much faith in it.
“They taste funny? Like arsenic? Oh, no. It’s just an old family recipe.”
amerpundit on February 15, 2008 at 2:13 PM
No A vote for obama is a vote for hope
A vote for hillary is a vote for the hopeless.
William Amos on February 15, 2008 at 2:13 PM
“I was in my cottage in the forest when this two little children named Hansel and Gretell payed a visit to my kitchen and then this happened !”
William Amos on February 15, 2008 at 2:15 PM
I found out yesterday that Texas is primary-caucus state, so that might help Obama.
terryannonline on February 15, 2008 at 2:15 PM
Republicans will cross over in TX to help kill off the wicked witch. I don’t think they are being included in the polls.
This is where all the conservative energy is now.
Valiant on February 15, 2008 at 2:23 PM
Aero, I already made that call myself. A contested convention (or at least the Democrat ‘leadership’ forced to prevent it) does the most good for November. And even if Huck wins Texas, he’s not going anywhere; McCain would be an utter fool to commit the suicide of picking the Huckster as VP.
michaelo on February 15, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Valiant, we need the wicked witch to live on to poison the brew; we need to give her Texas.
michaelo on February 15, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Mirror Mirror on the wall, who’s the most inevitable of them all?
Obama.
Crap.
conservativejack on February 15, 2008 at 2:25 PM
I’m one of the crossovers. As far as the primary-caucus post of Terryann’s… that is good ol’ Texas politics (land laws, mineral rights, you name it). Everything here is half on the up-n-up, and the rest is in a smoke filled back room. Houston-Dallas-Austin, Obama will have a lock. She is going to have to pull a mighty big jackalope outta her hat here to pull off taking the state.
Limerick on February 15, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Any more stool samples?
LimeyGeek on February 15, 2008 at 2:38 PM
The problem is, Hillary reminds men of the nagging, whinning ex-wife they never want to hear from again.
NNtrancer on February 15, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Word.
I’m happily married, but still
Word.
LimeyGeek on February 15, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Caption contest:
The Wicked Witch switches from apples.
NNtrancer on February 15, 2008 at 2:45 PM
Obama can be derailed – it just depends on the spin. For example, do they go with this AP headline:
Obama supports individual gun rights
By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer
11 minutes ago
Or this headline for the same story, which I had seen a half hour earlier before it was replaced:
Obama says US must end gun violence
By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer
44 minutes ago
That’s do “whatever it takes” to end gun violence according to the senator. Somehow I expect that to conflict with the 2nd Amendment, despite what Senator Obama says.
Given the direction of the spin change, do you think the AP is biased? Nooooooo.
Obama is a serious threat to the 2nd Amendment, not that Hillary is any better. This Texan thinks Hillary will be easier to beat in the general, but she is just SO annoying. What a quandary. I just hope the easier opponent for McCain wins the Democratic nomination. Whoever that is.
DreadWolf on February 15, 2008 at 2:47 PM
As I recall, the last poll I saw in Texas, back in January, had Huckabee up by a few, so if McCain is up now, it means McCain’s been surging.
Mark V. on February 15, 2008 at 2:49 PM
He’s too old for hanky panky
LimeyGeek on February 15, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Survey USA touts they are most accurate, got this one WAY WRONG!
Dhornertx on February 15, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Whoa there, DreadWolf.
Here is Barry’s actual quote:
“I think there is an individual right to bear arms, but it’s subject to commonsense regulation” like background checks, he said during a news conference.
Let’s not fly off the handle. This guy is, after all, the next president of the United States.
Dorvillian on February 15, 2008 at 2:59 PM
opps that was VIRGINIA polling, forgot to add that.
Dhornertx on February 15, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Even if Clinton wins the popular vote in Texas, it may not help. Texas Democrats award their delegates through a hybrid process, with a large tranche of delegates being decided upon in caucuses. Caucuses have not been her friend.
paul006 on February 15, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Another Jem of a Quote from the Messiah:
“I understand that Senator Clinton, periodically when she’s feeling down, launches attacks as a way of trying to boost her appeal.”
He is Hard Not to Like Sometimes…
Dorvillian on February 15, 2008 at 3:05 PM
A month or two ago my mom told me that Huckabee was endorsed by the Dallas Morning News. Since then his name has been circulating in regular church-goer circles, but I don’t think they know anything about him. There have been no Republican TV ads that I’ve seen – just Dem ads starting in the last day or two.
McCain is much more well known than any of the other Republican candidates here, and I felt an immediate jump in support for him as soon as he gained the lead. That’s just from my friends and relatives though, few if any that listen to talk radio or read political blogs. When I mentioned Coulter’s “campaign for Hillary” comment to my mom, she exclaimed “Oh NO!” in absolute disbelief.
DreadWolf on February 15, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Yes but the primary portion awards more delegates than the caucus portion. So I think she will take Texas but by a very slim margin. However, she needs a big win not a slim one.
terryannonline on February 15, 2008 at 3:09 PM
So, is he saying a woman with PMS will start WWIII?
NNtrancer on February 15, 2008 at 3:18 PM
Correct. But even those delegates are awarded proportionately, in relation to results from the state’s 31 senate districts. So you’re right: She needs a big popular vote win, not a modest one, as now seems likely.
If Hillary is counting on Texas, you may apply the folk.
paul006 on February 15, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Hehe. That’s one side of the spin Dorvillian, but Obama also said this today:
“Today we offer them our thoughts and prayers, but we also have to offer them our determination to do whatever it takes to eradicate this violence from our streets, from our schools, from our neighborhoods and our cities,” Obama said. “That is our duty as Americans.”
He’ll have to decide whether “an individual right to bear arms” or “whatever it takes” is dominant, because the potential conflict is apparent to me. Apparently not to our vacuous senator though.
DreadWolf on February 15, 2008 at 3:20 PM
Game Over Hillary, GAME OVER!
BKennedy on February 15, 2008 at 3:24 PM
The greatest part of all of this is that (at least) one of the dem contenders will lose. Either Hillary continues to flame out and fade to irrelevance, or all the Obama Joy rushes out of the Hope Balloon making a funny noise. Though I don’t like McCain either, I can’t help but smile at the dems.
innominatus on February 15, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Fixed.
paul006 on February 15, 2008 at 3:31 PM
She has enough tricks up her sleeve to clinch the nomination even if Obama was fairly elected. If you want trouble at their convention, vote for Obama. The Clintons will not go quietly, I assure you.
Besides, if you have to vote Democrat, it is infinitely easier to pull the lever for Barry-O than a Clinton.
Valiant on February 15, 2008 at 3:31 PM
If that’s just meant as a goof on Obama’s campaign slogans, fine, but if it’s a suggestion for actual action, it’s terrible advice. If you want a happy, united Democrat party taking the White House in January with the most leftist agenda this country has seen since Carter, replete with the promise for capitulation in Iraq, go with Obama. Unless you are genuinely liberal, there is no use whatsoever in crossing over for him. I find every suggestion that there could be even more astonishing than the last.
Blacklake on February 15, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Candy??? Where’s the cookies??
Dave from Flint on February 15, 2008 at 3:43 PM
I am kinda surprised by this, it will be interesting to see if other pollsters get a similar result. A year ago I never would have guessed we would end up where we are now.
echosyst on February 15, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Please don’t say Hillary’s losses were Alamo-like. The men at the Alamo showed up and fought to the death. Hillary was MIA but talked us to death.
km on February 15, 2008 at 8:51 PM
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