Gallup: McCain wins more Democrats than Obama wins Republicans?
posted at 1:15 pm on February 13, 2008 by Allahpundit
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They lead with the fact that Democrats are much more impressed with their candidates than we are with ours, but here’s the surprise:
His approval rating among Republicans is only a point shy of Obama’s with Democrats, too. Call this the “Who’s the moron?” rejoinder to my last post: If you think (a) Obama’s ability to turn out new voters is overrated and (b) that “McCain Democrats” are going to stick with Maverick through a long campaign aimed at painting him as a doctrinaire conservative while the media buzzes over Barry O, then maybe Obama is easier in the general than Hillary. Karl’s ahead of the game as usual:
First, the numbers suggest that the talk about the relative abilities of McCain and Obama to attract Independents may be less meaningful than people think (though one cannot say this with great certainty without knowing where they live). Alternatively, if you buy the Obama line that he can bring all sorts of new voters into the process, such that traditional turnout models do not fully capture it (a debatable proposition), McCain’s appeal to “garden-variety” Independents may not be as big a selling point as is generally believed.
Second, it raises questions as to whether McCain should prefer to run against Obama instead of Clinton. If Clinton is the nominee, the election may look more like all of the other elections in this century, which have generally been about identifying and turning out the candidate’s vote. The larger pool of Democrats, combined with a polarizing campaign potentially depressing the Independent vote, might make Clinton the tougher foe for McCain.
Why would a polarizing campaign depress independent turnout, though? Our ace in the hole is Hillary hatred mobilizing not only the base to forgive Maverick his heresies but getting centrists to come out and throw water on the wicked witch like they’ve been doing for Obama throughout the primaries. If it’s Obama vs. McCain, figure that the number of Republicans and Democrats willing to cross over will even out as Hillary’s base rallies (grudgingly) behind the nominee, the media halo for Obama kicks in, and each party’s attempt to paint the other’s candidate as an extremist takes effect. That still leaves Maverick with a slight net gain since there’ll be more self-identified Democrats voting than Republicans — but then what about that big advantage among independents for Obama? And what about the fact that the only way realistically that Hillary can win the nomination now will involve superdelegates and/or shenanigans with the unseated delegates in Florida and Michigan? Either of those scenarios is going to have a lot of Obama supporters feeling gypped and in no mood to help with the coronation.
Update: Maverick’s going to need evangelicals no matter what so he’s being very careful indeed in his pronouncements about Huckabee. As his campaign pushes Huck towards the door with one hand, they’re reaching out with the other.
Update: When I say a “net gain” for McCain, I mean that if Democrats and Republicans each cross over in the same percentages — say, 10% — that’s a net pick-up for Maverick. But as one of the commenters reminds us, turnout in the primaries has been so lopsided towards Democrats that either Obama or Hillary crushes McCain if the trend holds.
Update: If this is all she has left, let’s just focus on Obama and start the general.
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McCain’s only hope, no matter what Gallup polls (they haven’t been the most accurate)… is a fight over the superdelgates. That’s it. A total meltdown of the DNC. If that happens, it will be at the hands of the Clinton Mafia, so the Republicans can’t be blamed for it…and then, McCain could win.
TOPV on February 13, 2008 at 1:24 PM
What isnt mentioned in that is an anti Obama movement. We have seen shades of that from the Hillary side. There will be some ingering resenment against Obama for this bitter primary season.
McCain can attract moderates who are older while Obama attracts the younger ones. Age will play a big party of this election and older people vote more than younger.
And one more word to conservatives. We need to have our priorites straight. I keep hearing this “We need to lose that would be best for conservatism” argument.
Our main priority isnt Conservatism. We have to have a higher priority than that. My main priority is my country. I put America above even my conservative principles.
While I dislike McCain on the Immigration issue I have no doubts about his foreign policy. When all is said and done the reason foreigners want Obama is that they want a weak America. China wants a weak america, Russia wants a weak america, Europe wants a weak america.
It happens whenver any nation gets at the top of the heap the others join together to bring it down. Thats why Obama is loved in other nations he weakens us and that appeals to our enemies and our rivals.
I dont want a weakened america and I will stand with McCain to prevent that. That is in the best interest of my country I do this. Conservatism works best when it works in the interest of America rather than when it works in its self interest.
William Amos on February 13, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Well, Duh, he IS ONE.
stenwin77 on February 13, 2008 at 1:24 PM
In Virginia yesterday:
625,000 people voted for Obama.
481,978 People voted for McCain, Huckabee, Paul and Romney.
970,393 People voted for Obama and Clinton.
Obama got 379,006 more votes than John McCain (who got 244,135 votes.)
Obama LAPPED McCain in Virginia with 140,000 votes to spare.
It does not matter how many democrats vote for McCain, he will lose in a spectacular fashion in November.
EJDolbow on February 13, 2008 at 1:27 PM
Really? What are you doing while George Bush is selling it down the tubes to Mexico? Nada. What will you do when McCain signs his immigration bill?? Nada. McCain is not concerned about the country and the argument of “I am putting my country first” is running in a leaky bucket
TOPV on February 13, 2008 at 1:27 PM
I never bought the argument that Obama can run away with the election simply because he’s so pleasant. If that cheap trick works in politics, it would be over exploited by now.
frankj on February 13, 2008 at 1:28 PM
I dont want a weakened america and I will stand with McCain to prevent that. That is in the best interest of my country I do this. Conservatism works best when it works in the interest of America rather than when it works in its self interest.William Amos on February 13, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Huh???
Weakened America. No need to worry about that, we are already there. We won’t be able to do anything with the entire military fighting a war we are not committed to winning (as I said before, if we were, there would be a huge hole between Pakistan and Afghanistan for one). Since our President is “playing” war but not “FIGHTING” a war, we are ALREADY WEAKENED.
TOPV on February 13, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Mark Penn plays the race card and the gender card in one smooth motion:
“Current Poll Numbers Don’t Tell the Story of What Will Happen”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/why_hillary_not_obama_is_the_d.html
pedestrian on February 13, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Rove brought up this same fact when on Fox News a few days ago. The problem is not who pulls more from the other side, but who can get their base out. Rove is talking out of both sides of his mouth on this, and his “models” worked out well for us in 2006. No, wait, they didn’t.
Obama’s base will have months of positive press that will ignore any points McCain tries to make about his lack of qualifications for POTUS, and that is if McCain even bothers. Lately McCain only has the guts to attack Republicans.
Also Obama’s base will be making history by voting for the first Black President, where as McCain’s base will be settling for our least liked option.
Voidseeker on February 13, 2008 at 1:33 PM
I’m not convinced yesterday’s numbers are representative of the eventual November turnout. While the Democratic race was still wide open, the common logic is that McCain already has the nomination all wrapped up. If I can work a few more hours of overtime, or go vote for someone who already has the nomination wrapped up, I’ll choose the former.
I’m not saying it won’t be a problem, but I just wouldn’t use yesterday’s numbers.
amerpundit on February 13, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Yes, Hillary-hate would be a great rallying point and it has been around for quite some time. However in terms of policy and ideology, there’s no fundamental difference between Obama and Clinton, they’re both Statists. Of course Obama is very charismatic and not “shrill” like HRC, but it’s still her in a black man’s body. Couple that with Obama’s lack of experience and accomplishments aside from his charismatic demeanor and highlight John McCain’s much longer political tenure and heroism, and build him up as the man much better equipped to lead the country. National security Democrats will break for him, which probably includes a lot of Hillary supporters. And that might turn enough people off of Obama for McCain to cinch the Presidency, if Hillary doesn’t get the nomination. I think Obama will be harder to beat, but it’s not impossible.
mattyj86 on February 13, 2008 at 1:37 PM
I wonder how much Hilliary hate exists among Democrats. It is probably unfashionable for them to speak of it, but surely if it exists to any degree there should be some voter impact.
a capella on February 13, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Once again, I find William Amos has expressed my thoughts.
It’s apparently easy for Rash Limbaugh to continue his sneer campaign against McCain — in between his interminable paeans to himself — and for Hannity to whine and Levin to rant. After all, they have eight years of Obama to look forward to, and the prospect that they will have an easy target for their diatribes. And, thus, continued big listener bases.
But what about the country? When Obama is through bankrupting us and surrendering our sovereignty to all comers, what have we got to look forward to?
The United States is not theory. It is reality. Arguing that McCain isn’t a shining beacon of conservative principles may be fun for some of you, but the day is coming when such arguments will mean nothing. When the socialist give-away State is here, conservatism — and even the moderation the radio yakkers decry — will be buried under a flood of entitlements and illegals given Americans’ jobs.
MrScribbler on February 13, 2008 at 1:37 PM
So the bottom line, then, is that McCain doesn’t need me or others like me. He’s going to compensate for the loss of our votes by picking up Democrats.
Good. Everything works out well for everyone, cause I’m not voting for McCain.
paul006 on February 13, 2008 at 1:38 PM
It sounds like a lot of support for the “country” but only on one issue. It’s like a house, you can put all th ealarms you want on the front door (national security), you can stand on the lawn with your rifle (Iraq, WoT), but if your kids are inside overdosing on drugs, booze and looting your wallet…. the only fool is you on the front lawn.
Remember, the Roman Empire (no empire or nation for that matter), fell totally because of an outside enemy. The majority of the problem came from within its own borders. So you can keep letting Bush, the “Republican” elites, McCain, et. al diverting your attention to focus only on what’s outside the nation, but you’ll find yourself like Hillary and Bill with the rise of Obama, wondering…”how did this happen? where did he come from?”. Our troops will come home to say “dude where is my country?”
TOPV on February 13, 2008 at 1:39 PM
I think pollsters are just hearing what they want to hear.
A pollster called me yesterday and asked if I were more likely to vote for Hillary or Obama. I said neither, and the caller voice said in shock, Really!
Kini on February 13, 2008 at 1:40 PM
To base this on primary turnout numbers is misguided. IIRC, Republicans have consistently had far fewer primary votes than Dems, with two exceptions, and there is little to no correlation between relative primary turnout and general election turnout.
The entire military? That’s quite the exaggeration. The vast majority of our military is not in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Big S on February 13, 2008 at 1:43 PM
This makes me question your understanding of Conservatism. Conservatism cannot work “in its self interest” as it is a philosophy, a set of principals, the ideas and ideals that this nation was founded upon. It dose not have any self interest.
Conservatives that chose to ignore the consequences of voting against that set of principals for short term political gain are the ones acting with self interest. My view of course.
Voidseeker on February 13, 2008 at 1:43 PM
AP,
Thanks for the Protein Wisdom link. You ask:
The effect of negative campaigning on turnout has been a subject of debate among political scientists for some time. The initial studies tended to show it depressed turnout; some later studies (with different methodologies than make them not strictly comparable) claim negative campaigning can increase turnout.
My assertion at PW was based on the theme of an older study suggesting that the type of negative campaigning is significant, and that the tone is more consequential for independents, for those with less interest in politics, and for those with less knowledge about politics.
My hypothesis would be that a McCain-Clinton match-up could both drive more Dems to her than Reps to McCain, while turning off the mushy middle. To counter this McCain would have to really work an Obama-esque appeal to hopeyness and changeyness.
Karl on February 13, 2008 at 1:44 PM
So, your strategy is make sure everything goes even further down the crapper by ensuring an Obama victory?
Brilliant.
Vyce on February 13, 2008 at 1:45 PM
For once I agree with you, but i would add that I disagree with McCain over immigration, McCain-Feingold, GITMO, and carbon taxes. Nevertheless, the alternatives to a McCain Presidency are too nightmarish to imagine. Moreover, as much as I loathe these aspects of his record and how he conducted his campaign, I still prefer him to the class warfare populism of the Huckster.
Buy Danish on February 13, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Yup. McCain’s got a shot with dems like this one:
THE NEW REPUBLIC
Washington Diarist
by Leon Wieseltier
Forever Young
Post Date Tuesday, February 12, 2008
DISCUSS ARTICLE [161] | PRINT | EMAIL ARTICLE
What you think of a presidential candidate is in large measure determined by what you think of the world. Different circumstances call for different talents, different sensibilities, different approaches to power. “Leadership” comes in many forms. A sterling individual may be historically inappropriate; and a person whom it is impossible to admire may accomplish significant things. The question of whether Barack Obama will make a fine commander-in chief finally depends on your view of the direction of history in the coming years. I cannot escape the foreboding that we are heading into an era of conflict, not an era of conciliation. I do not mean that there will be many wars, though I cannot imagine that the threat to American security from Al Qaeda and its many associates can be met without a massive and sustained military operation in western Pakistan, and I cannot imagine any Pakistani government ordering such an operation. It is not “the politics of fear” to remind Obama’s legions of the blissful that, while they are watching Scarlett Johansson sway to the beat, somewhere deep inside a quasi independent territory we might call Islamistan people are making plans to blow them to bits. (Yes, they can.)
funky chicken on February 13, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Oh, and just wait until the media unloads on McCain ! They’ve been propping him up - they know how easy he will be to defeat. We’re going to get whooped so bad in November.
Hope all of you McCain lovers will be happy. It won’t really matter in the end, if conservatives vote for him or not. McCain is a Democrat with an R after his name. Obama and Hill are Democrats with a D after their names. The Dems will vote for the Dem with the D. And they’ll vote in such huge numbers, it won’t matter.
stenwin77 on February 13, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Very well said. Your comments are always dead on.
carbon_footprint on February 13, 2008 at 1:48 PM
You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep at night.
EJDolbow on February 13, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Mav will destroy the messiah.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 13, 2008 at 1:48 PM
YES.
Finally, a lantern in the wilderness.
Vyce on February 13, 2008 at 1:49 PM
You may be too much in love with that hole between Pakistan and Afghanistan concept. Seems to me that we(and perhaps Israel?)have been having remarkable success lately in whack a mole with some pretty big moles. Pakistan is a house of cards right now. Better some drones with Hellfires, a little special op activity over the border, and good intelligence gathering, rather than a carpet bombing to make us feel good. Those tribes in the Northwest Frontier have been nasty for a long time. I don’t think killing a lot of their women and children will aid the cause.
a capella on February 13, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Wasn’t it John McCain that said to Romney with great disdain and repugnance, “you have worked FOR PROFIT?” He also opposed Bush tax cuts as breaks for the WEALTHY. Huck engages in class warfare, but so does McCain - no difference on that account.
stenwin77 on February 13, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Im not saying give up the fight against anyone not even McCain on issues we disagree with him on. Im saying dont give up on the country just to punish one guy.
We elect McCain them make his life hell if he doesnt play ball. Barak would ignore us McCain cant.
William Amos on February 13, 2008 at 1:54 PM
I don’t have a link for the raw data, but look here.
Big S on February 13, 2008 at 1:55 PM
I hate to be the one to throw cold water around, but McCain will do no better when it comes to keeping the economy afloat much less fix it. That is one of the main reasons people like myself wanted Romney over McCain.
We are going to have a recession/depression with either candidate, the question is what kind of Congress will be there to try and fix it. With McCain it will be Democrats and we will have the Great Depression II. With Obama we have a better chance that it will be Republican’s and Conservatives, which if so and act like the Congress of 94, it will just be a really bad recession.
Voidseeker on February 13, 2008 at 1:56 PM
When all the Muslims and other likewise parasites and terrorists supporters vote for Hussein, you still think McCain can win?
Hussein is the Muslims’ candidate, for obvious reasons.
http://muslimsforobama08.com
Indy Conservative on February 13, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Good point, but he is nowhere near as bad as Huckabee who never shuts up about it.
Buy Danish on February 13, 2008 at 2:01 PM
What?
McCain has been, and only barely listening now to finish getting the nomination. If he won, which I believe he has no chance of doing, he would have even LESS reason to listen to us than he did after 2000 when he turned on the party.
I do not understand how you think being POTUS would make McCain more attentive to the base and not less.
Voidseeker on February 13, 2008 at 2:02 PM
And who was the African American Purdy talker in those races?
This year is different.
EJDolbow on February 13, 2008 at 2:02 PM
In just about every election cycle, Democrats manage to find a new and improved Savior of Mankind. Sometimes there are two or three. Don’t be too quick to ascribe the increase to Obama’s charisma. That’s pure speculation at this point.
Big S on February 13, 2008 at 2:06 PM
African American? No. Candidates with Obama’s popularity? Yes.
Keep something in mind: Young people rarely vote. “But they’re excited about Obama!”. Yes, they were excited about Kerry, too. Hollywood couldn’t get enough of him, and one a personal note I had young people constantly coming around knocking on my door to hand me his information.
There are other factors in play in this election, too. First of all, a rift between Obama and Clinton supporters. Second, the likelihood of Dems only having 8 weeks to campaign after a slaughterfest at the convention. Third, and very unfortunately, racism. Following a South Carolina paper’s endorsement of Obama, there were reports of them receiving a deluge of mail and calls from people ashamed that they were endorsing a black man.
amerpundit on February 13, 2008 at 2:10 PM
McCain was in the senate where he could pay either side. In the White House he is the leader and cant take sides, The dems will be gunning for him so he has to make deals with conservatives.
William Amos on February 13, 2008 at 2:11 PM
In a nutshell… we are screwed. Obama will beat McCain in a landslide thanks to the mindless masses. It’s gonna be a tough four years for us. Maybe now is a good time to schedule that lengthy walkabout you’ve been dreaming of?
cannonball on February 13, 2008 at 2:19 PM
You’re going to hold on to that hope?
I would have thought that this election has proved pretty damn well that you can’t count on ANYTHING this time around. Because it wasn’t that long ago that everyone had written McCain off as someone who would never obtain the party’s nomination. And lo and behold, here we are.
I cannot emphasize how dangerous I find it in these times to take ANYTHING for granted, especially things like this were we need the chips to fall a certain way in order to obtain victory.
Vyce on February 13, 2008 at 2:21 PM
to get along with Democrats which is what you seem to want most.
Hey, it’s been a whole week since McCain and his minions poked conservatives in the eye. Calm down and fall in line already.
He is going to make McGovern, Carter, and Mondale look like political geniuses.
Valiant on February 13, 2008 at 2:24 PM
In the general election the raw turn out is not nearly as relevant as where those people vote. A big Dem turnout in California and New York doesn’t win them any more elector votes than the regular 2004 turnout. Look at the map and do the math. McCain has to hold nearly every state that W won last time to win. Can McCain hold Florida and Ohio? If he loses either of those, game over.
I strongly suspect BHO will capture Missouri, so cough up 11 votes for the dems. Virginia is certainly up for grabs and that’s another 13 votes. A GOP loss in both MO and VA puts BHO over the top. Turn out in those 4 states in November is the whole game. Who thinks McCain can pull it off?
Vote Sauron 08 on February 13, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Worth repeating, from McCain’s speech last night:
Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men’s hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience. And I stood astonished at the resilience of their hope in the darkest of hours because it did not reside in an exaggerated belief in their individual strength, but in the support of their comrades, and their faith in their country.
My hope for our country resides in my faith in the American character, the character which proudly defends the right to think and do for ourselves, but perceives self-interest in accord with a kinship of ideals, which, when called upon, Americans will defend with their very lives.
To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.
When I was a young man, I thought glory was the highest ambition, and that all glory was self-glory. My parents tried to teach me otherwise, as did the Naval Academy. But I didn’t understand the lesson until later in life, when I confronted challenges I never expected to face.
In that confrontation I discovered that I was dependent on others to a greater extent than I had ever realized, but that neither they nor the cause we served made any claims on my identity. On the contrary, I discovered that nothing is more liberating in life than to fight for a cause that encompasses you, but is not defined by your existence alone. And that has made all the difference, my friends, all the difference in the world.
I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need. I seek the presidency with the humility of a man who cannot forget that my country saved me. I am running to serve America, and to champion the ideas I believe will help us do what every American generation has managed to do: to make in our time, and from our challenges, a stronger country and a better world.
bnelson44 on February 13, 2008 at 2:27 PM
I predict a 49 state landslide where he loses him home state like Al Gore.
Valiant on February 13, 2008 at 2:28 PM
The question is, which state will McCain carry?
I predict Alaska.
Valiant on February 13, 2008 at 2:30 PM
I’ve heard of many republicans that are claiming they’ll just vote for Obama….over McCain and wait out for a ‘real conservative’. If they actually do this, and Obama wins in a landslide AND there is a Dem congress and senate…this nation may be done for. Hello France
jp on February 13, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Obama would go in with a “mandate” and the media shilling for him, along with a friendly congress.
jp on February 13, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Thats interesting. It seems whoever has the largest turnout in the primaries is doomed to failure in the general. I can’t help but be skeptical about the continuation of that trend. It must happen for some reason, but I really have no idea why? Weird.
Zetterson on February 13, 2008 at 2:32 PM
If you heard that speech live it was quite a bit longer. He used the phrase “my friend(s)” too many times to count. He really should try to fix that tic as it’s very distracting.
Buy Danish on February 13, 2008 at 2:32 PM
here is the problem with the above thoughts. first we know for a fact that the democratic base is one of the most racist in America. Gov Rendell is right. there are large sections of the Denmocratic voters that would not vote for a black man. Reps are more open minded in this regard and we decide not on a person’s skin as on his/her positions. therefore in a general election the democratic voters that voted for Edwars and Clinton are more than likely to stay home. In the last election the DEMS got 90% of the black vote. They will get that again this election. they may get 99% this election. McCain on immigration as much as the base hates it gives him a good chance of picking up some if not a majority of the latino vote. that leaves the white male vote. Except for some beta males no one in their right mind would vote for BO. since most beta males live in the blue states anyway it’s not a big loss. That leaves the white women vote up for graps. Hillary would do better with them than McCain but I think McCain does better then BO with them.
Racism will play a part in the general. A colorblind society we are not. The hatred for hillary leaves the Dems with no choice. McCain gives them the choice. Living in PA,OH and NC I would have to say PA,OH is more racist than NC.
unseen on February 13, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Candidates have come from far behind before only to win the primaries, and vice-versah. Howard Dean well-lead the Democratic pack in fundraising and in polling up until he lost. As a matter of fact, if you Google “Dean Scream”, you’ll see the networks introduced him as the Former Frontrunner.
Young voters, OTOH, have had a long history of being undependable.
amerpundit on February 13, 2008 at 2:37 PM
A lot will depend on how hard the feelings are among the Democrats supporting the losing side of the nomination battle. A recent AP poll noted that about 1/3rd of the supporters of both Clinton and Obama indicated they would vote for McCain if their candidate did not get the nomination. Some of that may die down when Hillary and Barack do their necessary air-kissing at the DNC, but it’s certainly something to watch for.
Brainster on February 13, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Oh the shark has pretty teeth dear
And he shows them pearly white
Just a jack-knife has Mac-Cain dear
And he keeps it out of sight
Mack the Knife, my friend.
silverfox on February 13, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Yes. This is my point.
Conservatives quite possibly may KILL their own party this election season. Talk about eating one’s own.
Vyce on February 13, 2008 at 2:51 PM
No matter whether Hillary of Obama is the dem nominee, it’s not going to be a blowout on either side.
This election will most likely be a close one. Predicting the winner and by how much right now is like predicting the spread on next year’s Super Bowl. Anyone who believes they have the answer on how McCain will do against the dems is fooling themselves.
Hollowpoint on February 13, 2008 at 2:58 PM
In 1988 the dems almost doubled the primary turnout of the republicans. Remember President Dukakis?
funky chicken on February 13, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Where do these numbers come from?
According to the chart, you don’t see equal crossovers with the two opponents. Yes, the NET gain works out the same no matter who the opponent is. But Democrats and Republicans both cross over more with Obama, and less with Clinton.
Presumably, if McCain were more conservative, you’d see lower crossovers with each opponent. But there’s no reason the NET would change at all. That’s one of the (many) reasons it’s stupid to pick a moderate candidate - it loses your base support, but it gains you nothing.
As for what the net figure happens to stand at right now, that’s pretty pointless. Unless of course you believe the New York Times and most other liberal media outlets will KEEP endorsing John McCain after the primaries are over.
logis on February 13, 2008 at 3:00 PM
The Independents will come around. Obama gets to play the insurgent against the establishment, which plays well among Independents. That image is going to be harder to maintain once he’s absorbed back into the establishment as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
RightOFLeft on February 13, 2008 at 3:04 PM
You, My Friend, are missing the point. Conservative no longer have a party.
stenwin77 on February 13, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Well of course McCain can ignore you: You will have already voted for him! You may jack your jaws in disapproval when he does something you don’t like, but so what? You will have proven that regardless of what he does, or doesn’t do, he can win your vote if he’s simply juxtaposed against a Democrat in the general election.
That’s a low bar to meet, because the Democrats invariably nominate a candidate for president.
paul006 on February 13, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Dukakis ran following 8 years of a very popular Republican President (Reagan) and ran against Reagan’s VP (an incombent, so to speak).
McCain is NO Ronald REagan. He is running after 8 years of Bush’s dismal record. Compare Dukakis to Obama… my, my, my, quite a difference.
If you think this election is going to turn out like 1988, you are delusional.
stenwin77 on February 13, 2008 at 3:10 PM
I was with my friends the other day. One’s a nominal Republican, but mostly liberal on social issues; the other’s a far left lib. Both are fans of McCain and would support him in the GE against either Dem.
The Gallup poll only confirms my suspicion that Independents are stupid.
Jaibones on February 13, 2008 at 3:11 PM
we will never have one if the above scenario happens, it will be irreversible until we fall. if they institute cradle to grave welfare.
jp on February 13, 2008 at 3:13 PM
And conservatives are NOT going to vote for McCain. He keeps sticking it to us (hello, Juan Hernandez). So, I don’t see how that translates into a victory for McCain.
stenwin77 on February 13, 2008 at 3:13 PM
So be it.
stenwin77 on February 13, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Reagan wasn’t popular after Iran Contra, though he was ‘likeable’. and too many project everythign they hate about humanity onto bush for some reason.
jp on February 13, 2008 at 3:14 PM
I’d like to get some welfare as much as the next guy, but it’s seriously not good for the country, stenwin77.
RightOFLeft on February 13, 2008 at 3:24 PM
El Rushbo is right, if he endorses McCain, the moderate conservatives and democrats will drop him like a bad habit. One thing we all know, Rush will do anything to keep democrats out of power, and if that involves trashing moderates while still keeping his credibility on core conservative values, it’s a no brainer. But the pièce de ré·sis·tance will be when McCain selects a hard core conservative for veep, and Rush and his listeners (or approx. 41% of them) bash him for being a liberal RINO. Brilliant indeed.
myamphibian on February 13, 2008 at 3:35 PM
Huh? Muslims are gonna vote for B. Hussein Obama, and somehow that fact will translate to the total country following their lead?
Again, Huh?
funky chicken on February 13, 2008 at 3:48 PM
Let’s play with a scenario for a moment.
POTUS proposes this:
Conservative Republican congressmen mount a resistance. Unfortunately they are the minority party in congress, so they have to get votes from conservative and moderate democrats.
Will they be able to attract moderate democrats’ opposition to a Dem POTUS or a GOP POTUS more easily? Think about the pressure the dem caucus will exert on its members. Is the dem leadership going to permit their folks to join the GOP opposition if there is a dem POTUS?
Oh, and McCain ain’t gonna propose a “patriot company act” anyway, but Obama is a cosponsor on the one that is already there.
C’mon, all of you “Obama’s better than McCain” people. Please help me out here.
funky chicken on February 13, 2008 at 3:58 PM
Look what happened in Maryland to Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest who made the mistake of swinging to the Left and voting for timetables in Iraq.
Note how McCain and Gingrich’s support did nothing for him. It is just a bit ironic that McCain supported this guy since he falsely claimed that Mitt supported timetables and used that to smear him.
Buy Danish on February 13, 2008 at 4:11 PM
Moderates, pretty much by definition, are people who don’t have any set beliefs at all.
In other words, their beliefs will tend to track with whatever they’ve seen on television the most in the past two weeks. The problem is that the New York Times and the rest of the media are NOT going to keep idolizing John McCain over a Democrat once the real race starts.
logis on February 13, 2008 at 4:19 PM
Boehner Endorses McCain [David Freddoso]
“John McCain is an American hero and will make an excellent President of the United States. McCain has a solid conservative record as one of the most vocal opponents of wasteful spending, a staunch defender of America’s national security, and a strong believer in the sanctity of human life. He is uniquely suited to lead our country forward as we take on the many opportunities and challenges of the years ahead.
02/13 11:35 AM
funky chicken on February 13, 2008 at 4:32 PM
That would be my hope–that in an Obama vs. McCain match, the appeal of McCain to moderate Dems is greater than Obama’s appeal to not only Republicans (duh) but independents. This is why I won’t be at all surprised if McCain chooses to more-or-less ignore the evangelicals and pick a VP as moderate as or even further to the left of himself.
You’re confusing “moderates” and “independents.” In fact, if you aren’t an ardent Communist or a full-fledged laissez-faire Libertarian, you are yourself a moderate of one stripe or another.
Blacklake on February 13, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Did you hear this on television? Moderate by definition is not extreme or radical. I have always thought of the republican party as being more open to difference of opinion and against radicalism. This happens every election year, right wingers bitch about how they hate having to hold their nose and vote for the lesser evil, but they always do. As a Jesse Helms conservative myself, I have no problem supporting McCain and welcome anyone into the republican party that will oppose liberal democrats.
myamphibian on February 13, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Obama should enlist in the National Guard, fast!
People like guys in uniform.
profitsbeard on February 13, 2008 at 6:28 PM
I should hope so! A Republican who votes for Obama is not a Republican…not even a liberal Republican!
SouthernGent on February 13, 2008 at 7:47 PM
This isn’t complicated. Obama is getting 98% of the Black vote. The Racist vote dwarfs this by some insane order of magnitude. A large amount of white male democrats are not going to vote for Obama.
If Hillary wins vs McCain she is going to pull a crazy amount of the woman voters from everywhere. McCain cannot hold onto women voters period! Only Rudy or Romney could. The Anti-Hillary hatred is male driven by a large amount. Once women go into the both they are going to pull the lever for a woman unless there choice is only between a white or black man. That is the reality. Race has everything to do with this, something people who don’t live outside major cities cannot comprehend.
If you think Hillary is easier to beat than Obama then you are delusional and have not been paying attention to women.
Poptech on February 13, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Obama is an inexperienced liberal extremist, & McCain should have no trouble demonstrating that to the American people.
jgapinoy on February 13, 2008 at 8:53 PM
Of course not, moderates aresn’t anything.
Of course. Everything “always” happens. Until it doesn’t.
Strange though, I wouldn’t expect such mindless fatalistic apathy from a moderate.
Oh, wait… I just remembered: That’s all anyone ever expects from moderates!
Don’t worry though. The good news is that - after thousands of years of never accomplishing anything significant in the entire history of mankind - moderates must be reeeally rested up by now.
I suppose that’s why we’re not hearing any desperate teeth-gnashing at the thought you won’t have us disgusting “radical right-wingers” gumming up the works and getting in your way this election year.
Oh, wait…
logis on February 13, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Obama: he will bring CHANGE… to you pocket.
profitsbeard on February 13, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Where did you read that? Read again my post.
The majority of this country is made of parasites, of so-called “independents,” of lefties loonies, and Muslims, all these put together will vote for that terrorists supporter Muslim, Barack Hussein, and that’s how the Conservatives will be defeated.
Indy Conservative on February 13, 2008 at 9:56 PM
McCain is for a stronger America?
Open borders, higher taxes, global warming policies, limits to free speech and advice from Teddy - yeah, he represents me perfectly. McCain supporters - what does he give us besides talk? The country survived Carter, the first Bush, the Clintons, and it will survive four years of Obama. When the GOP left conservatives, I left the GOP. Parties have come and gone (Federalists, Whigs anyone?). There were crises occurring then as well. It’s time to realign parties.
jeffNWV on February 13, 2008 at 10:32 PM