Predictions: Potomac
posted at 11:25 am on February 12, 2008 by Allahpundit
The news is slow enough that we might as well open a thread, although I’m not sure what it is we’ll be predicting. The outcomes are foregone conclusions (I think); want to bet the spreads? I’ll give you Barry O and Maverick -14 points in both Maryland and Virginia. Huck’s an easy play in the latter. How about this for a bet: Which party’s nomination will be wrapped up first? I was thinking this weekend that Her Majesty’s finished if Obama breaks through her Latino firewall in Texas next month. The superdelegates will cower before his momentum and melt away to his side, and party elders who aren’t named “Clinton” will want a word with her about staying in. And now, here we go:
“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.
Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend…
Some donors also expressed concern about a widening money imbalance between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton: Obama fund-raisers say he is taking in roughly $1 million a day, while Clinton fund-raisers say she is taking in about half of that, mostly online. Mrs. Clinton’s aides say that the campaign was virtually broke as of the Feb. 5 primaries, but that finances have stabilized.
Tonight’s delegate margin will be slim, as always, and KP sagely warns us never to underestimate a Clinton, but here’s the critical point from Byron York. Yes, the Clintons have sway and will continue to no matter what happens, but the party’s not going to shoot itself in the head to please Billy Jeff:
[I]f the delegate race remains extremely close, voters are not going to see Sen. Clinton as the co-leader – they’re going to question a system under which one guy wins primary after primary and the delegate totals stay in a virtual tie…
A few days ago, I asked an experienced Democratic strategist this question: Given everything that has happened in the campaign so far, is there any foreseeable scenario under which Hillary Clinton wins the nomination and black Democrats say, ‘Well, Obama ran a good race, but she won it fair and square’”? The strategist said, no, there is no such scenario. The damage has already been done, and if Obama is defeated by the votes of superdelegates loyal to the Clintons, Democrats will be a party plagued by divisions far more serious than anything Republicans are experiencing now.
The last, best chance for a Republican victory hangs by a thread. I’ve been leaning on Mary K to skip the GOP primary in her state today and cast a vote instead for our girl. From now until the bitter end: Cross over, cross over, cross over.
Blowback
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As I posted in a headline yesterday. The last great hope is that HRC wins on the backs of SuperDelegates.
12thman on February 12, 2008 at 11:34 AM
All together now…
OneGyT on February 12, 2008 at 11:35 AM
Still laughing about the notion of Republicans voting for Barry the Bullshitter. He’s starting to remind me of Otter.
“Hi. Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman; damn glad to meet you.”
Jaibones on February 12, 2008 at 11:35 AM
Johnny Mac vrs Obama. You know it’s the truth. Why deny it.
Dash on February 12, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Sounds like Chelsea better start having a lot more “one on one” breakfasts in the near future.
revolutionismyname on February 12, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Geez, I don’t know which picture on the front page is scarier…Hildebeast or the cute puppy!….Can you say President Obama? I thought you could.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Obama is polling about 10% more on pre-primary surveys and exit polls than he actually is getting in votes.
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Not over until you see Obama with a foot on her chest and stake driven through her heart. Only to rise 4 to 8 years from now. Please Lord-let us break this Bush -Clinton dynasty.
Goodale on February 12, 2008 at 11:39 AM
The only plus I can see with Obama as the nominee is the block of Hispanics that won’t vote for him, which we’ve seen in many primaries. Perhaps Juan can carry some of their votes. However, I still see Obama winning in November.
With any luck, he’ll be Jimmy Carter 2.0, serve for one term, the country will get tired of him, and he’ll be voted out.
amerpundit on February 12, 2008 at 11:40 AM
Barack Obama=Segolene Royal?
Vizzini on February 12, 2008 at 11:40 AM
For Clinton and the DNC this has to be a ‘chickens home to roost’ situation. They have spent so many years pandering to blacks without actually helping them – now that some huge momentum has built up behind Obama, they cannot cut him down to size or the whole show would self-immolate.
Shakespeare would love it.
LimeyGeek on February 12, 2008 at 11:41 AM
Hey Bill, tell us about those fairy tales again.
Heh.
fogw on February 12, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Mav vs. Hope/Change. Let’s get it on!!
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 11:45 AM
I wonder…. how much Billy Jeff will lose on the performance clause in his contract?
Limerick on February 12, 2008 at 11:47 AM
As some NFL commentators went out on a limb to pick the NY Giants, I’m going to go out and say that Huckabee pulls a shocker in Virginia.
Talk about imagery!!! The only other thing would be the bit of blood that’s dripping off of one of her fangs
HarryStar on February 12, 2008 at 11:51 AM
“Mrs. Clinton’s aides say that the campaign was virtually broke as of the Feb. 5 primaries, but that finances have stabilized”. Yea…zero is a stable number.
This is very good news. I’ll be partying hearty–until I remember that not even McCain can beat Barak Hussein Obama.
Christine on February 12, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Romney suspended his campaign last week.
I predict the nasty Democrat clone that is left holding the most GOP delegates will take Maryland but will lose in Virginia and DC (like those three people matter). I further predict that the margin of victory will be slim enough that McCain and his vile minions will have to stop treating anti-McCain conservatives like petulant children and start a real dialogue that gets them on the Tijuana Express.
Let’s remember here that McCain needs more than grassroots conservative votes. He needs them out there knocking on doors, stuffing envelopes, and contributing to the Tijuana express. That passion isn’t there behind McCain’s campaign right now and it won’t be so long as McCain’s useless idiots continue to view and criticism of the Senator as a personal attack instead of a legitimate and relevant difference of opinion.
highhopes on February 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Yup!
Can you say “President Obama” children?
TOPV on February 12, 2008 at 12:08 PM
According to a headline posted on HA yesterday, Soros pays the salary of Juan Hernandez through a John McCain originated think tank. McCain was forced to separate himself from the group after being caught taking a $200,000 contribution from a cable company. He received the donation after writing a letter sympathetic to their business interests, as chairman of the Commerce Commission. Hernandez is listed as a nonpaid advisor to McCain’s campaign. It appears to me that Oba,a is more inclined to Straight Talk than is Mccain.
a capella on February 12, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Correction
Oba.a = Obama.
a capella on February 12, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Very true. And now she’s President of
France, Oh, that’s right she lost to a conservative. president of herparty, um they don’t even want her anymore.ConservativePartyNow on February 12, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Donate and volunteer for conservative senators and representatives. Our only hope that 4 years of bad medicine does not kill the patient
jukin on February 12, 2008 at 12:18 PM
I voted for Romney this morning. And based on the callers to a local talk station, 630WMAL, I’m not the only one who felt he was the only Republican worth voting for during the primary season.
MrSteve on February 12, 2008 at 12:26 PM
I agree Huck will stun again because of evangelical support. Evangelicals are not well represented in polls.
Cross over, cross over, cross over.
Valiant on February 12, 2008 at 12:26 PM
I’ll just throw in a couple contrary views:
First, I don’t think Hillary’s going to win Texas. Yes, there’s a sizeable Hispanic population here but basically you never win Texas by carrying the Valley–unless you’re LBJ and you’ve got a magic ballot box or two.
And I’ve been agonizing over this but…
Y’know, there’s the old bit, that if I’m ever an arch-villian in a James Bond movie, I’m not going to construct some elaborate killing machine and walk out of the room cackling to let it work its dastardly magic; I’m just going to shoot him.
Well, I can’t vote for Hillary. I just can’t.
Which leads me to point two: I don’t think Barry’s all that unbeatable. He’s getting way too full of himself. He’s begining to believe the crowds. He’s slipping into a routine that’s going to turn a whole lot of people off in the general.
That and the fact that it is indeed the dirty little secret of the diversitists that all the “minority groups” don’t always play well together.
Obama’s got a huge disadvantage with Hispanics of which McCain can very naturally take advantage, until Barry has to pander so far to them that he turns the likes of Reagan Democrats off.
I’m getting more and more a gut feeling that while Obama may be riding high now, November is a long, long, long time away and it’s a long time for his act to play.
Plus if Hillary gets the nomination he’s on the ticket anyway so she gets his draw without his downside.
Bottom line: I think Barry’s more beatable than the Beast.
Typhoon on February 12, 2008 at 12:34 PM
I did. I voted for Mitt in Richmond this morning.
Symbolic of course. But I could look at myself in the mirror without feeling slimy.
BacaDog on February 12, 2008 at 12:37 PM
I just don’t understand this, although I see it often enough. It’s like voters are trying to pick the “winner” — rather than whoever they want to win. What ever happened to voting according to your beliefs and your principles?
Oh… I forgot… this is about the Dems. Nevermind!
/emily littella
Lan Astaslem on February 12, 2008 at 12:40 PM
Oh, and from the NYT article…
Is it just me, or is a Clinton showing more spunk not a good idea?
Oh, c’mon…
Like y’all weren’t thinking it too.
Typhoon on February 12, 2008 at 12:41 PM
I crossed over and voted for Hillary today. I’m not a fan, to say the least, but Obama straight up scares me because I don’t have even the slightest clue what he stands for except for forcing a loss in Iraq. I voted the Dem ticket since it seems like the GOP race is decided at this point.
I really don’t know what I’m going to do in the general.
Defense Guy on February 12, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Allah, haven’t you learned not to trust the polls?
I’m not a betting man (just a prophesying man), but you will lose your Maverick bet.
Huckabee/Thompson defeats Obama/Edwards this November.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 12:55 PM
You are a fool. If I had told you a year ago that you would vote for Hillary in a primary, you would have laughed at me. You probably laugh at me now when I tell you that Huckabee/Thompson will defeat Obama/Edwards this November. Obama ain’t got game.
You know what I call a Republican who votes for Hillary?
A RINO.
You are as much of a Defeatocrat as the Dems are. You really should be ashamed of yourself.
I’ll say it a thousand times if I have to,
Huckabee/Thompson will defeat Obama/Edwards this November
Huckabee’s got game. As he said on Colbert, “Game On!”
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 1:02 PM
The problem is that Obama has run a successful campaign. And that wasn’t planned because he’s an empty suit. Obama was supposed to “fight the good fight” and get out of the way of the Hillary Express early on, probably after Super Tuesday. But he’s winning and I don’t see an easy way for the Clinton campaign to regain the momentum and edge.
The real question is what Clinton is going to do to stop the losses. She tried going negative twice and the results were disasterous. She tried to dismiss Obama’s experience and the Kennedy clan got insulted and endorsed Obama. She tried being nice and came off as insincere. The only thing that seems to have worked is crying before each major primary. I guess we can look for more of that.
highhopes on February 12, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Say hello to the flying monkeys for me. And tell the Tin Man I was asking about him.
fogw on February 12, 2008 at 1:07 PM
All I can say is that afetr the way he may have single-handedly botched up her campaign with his flapping in the wind big fat mouth, Bubba Billy had better hope that Shillary has never sat down to watch that classic film, Sunset Boulevard. I mean, what Gloria Swanson did to William Holden at the end, well, those who have seen it know what I mean.
And Shill is more than ready for her close up!
pilamaye on February 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM
If Obama has taught you anything, it should be that Hope is better than Fear.
Why does Obama straight up scare you? You said yourself that you don’t know what he stands for except losing. He won’t tell anyone what he stands for. He stands for extreme liberalism, which will be revealed by his choice of Edwards as his VP. When Obama wins the Dem nomination, there is no way in hell that he would pick Hillary as his VP. Dems hatred of Hillary is a huge part of why the Obama balloon has risen. (And you’re foolish enough to vote for her to help her, when she would never do anything to help you, but that’s a different point). The Obama balloon will burst when a candidate of real hope for real change is a choice put before “we the people”.
Huckabee/Thompson defeats Obama/Edwards this November.
Thank God (literally) for saving you from McCain/Clinton/Obama/Edwards.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Don’t count on it, she is already losing them and Republicans are crossing over….
AprilOrit on February 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Will you just shut the hell up already? You post the same mindless Huckabot nonsense in every damn thread, no matter how off topic it is. Keep it in the Huckster threads where we can appropriately ignore your stupidity.
Seriously- does an original thought even enter your head over the course of the day that doesn’t involve The Huckster?
Hillary would be easier to beat than Obama, but one thing is for damn sure- Huckster won’t be running against either of them.
Hollowpoint on February 12, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Fred Thompson was my first choice. But the problem with “FREDMENTUM” was that Fred’s “mentum” had no “Mo”.
Huckabee has momentum, more and more each day. Put together, Huckabee and Thompson will be an unbeatable ticket. Belive me now or believe me after it happens, but you will believe.
And it will happen whether you believe it will or not.
Most of you live in fear.
I’m more excited about this election than I’ve ever been.
Fear. Faith. Your Choice. Choose Wisely.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Not knowing your gender, is it a ‘crush’ or a ‘man crush’?
As for me, I’m afraid I can find no candidate to vote for and therefore, will not. First time. Ever.
pistolero on February 12, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Obama won’t be able to utter airy platitudes and meaningless generalities in any debate with the Republican nominee, especially McCain. I suspect it will be then that people discover how naive and unprepared Obama is.
NNtrancer on February 12, 2008 at 1:29 PM
I can’t bring myself to vote for any of them in the Virginia primary, not even crossing over for Hill-Billy.
NNtrancer on February 12, 2008 at 1:30 PM
You are a very bad man.
Let’s hope this doesn’t become a wide spread tactic amongst the insane.
Dorvillian on February 12, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Those hip replacement pills can really mess with your perspective, dude.
12thman on February 12, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Given that McCain has the nomination pretty much sewn up and that Hillary would be easier to beat, voting for Hillary is far from insane.
Hollowpoint on February 12, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Yet another example of a Republican Defeatocrat.
Mike will make a political beliver out of you by November.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Good God Pill, you just made my day. Even if it doesn’t happen I like how it sounds !
For all of you who are writing off Huckabee in Virginia so early, let me remind you that Pat Robertson’s Christian organization is located in eastern Virginia and he has a lot of evangelicals in the entire Tidewater area who just might, might, cast their vote for Huck instead of McAmnAsty. There has been so much said about Huck’s religion during this battle and
, as far as I know, nothing has been raised as to McAmnAsty’s religion (if he has one). Personally, I don’t care what religion either of them believes in but why play up Huck’s religion and not Mac’s ?
Tidewater, Va. is second in concentrated population only to the D.C. area in Virginia (I believe) so I wouldn’t bet against a good showing by Huck today. Remember, he believes in miracles and so do I.
OBX Pete on February 12, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Are ya kidding???? (No disrepect towards you here).
Did you watch the interview from H&C about Obama? NOBODY could name a single accomplishment for Obama and yet they loved him!!!!!
The best accomplishment was….He was black.
Granted, a comparison of their lives is a no brainer…HHHMMM…Obama vs. McCain?? LOL
However, most Democrats have no clue about the election (I said most). Ask them why they vote for somebody and they’ll tell you that they love his smile and his speeches.
Great, Welcome Jimmy Carter!!!
Be careful what you wish for…Obama will receive many votes from people who have no clue about this country.
HarryStar on February 12, 2008 at 1:52 PM
What color is the sky in your world?
WasatchMan on February 12, 2008 at 1:52 PM
How long have Hot Air posters been screaming for a candiate to build the border fence?
You now have a candidate who has clearly committed to completing the fence by July 1, 2010, and you say you’re going to sit home and not vote for him/support him? Have you lost your mind? I’d say so. But when Huckabee picks Fred Thompson as his VP, you’ll see the light and vote for Huckabee/Thompson in November. Count on it.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 1:55 PM
If Huckabee/Thompson win the White House I’ll walk to the inaugaration ceremony.
12thman on February 12, 2008 at 2:00 PM
If Obama has taught you anything, it should be that Hope (Obama) beats Fear (Hillary).
In November it will be Hope (Obama) vs. Hope (Huckabee), so who wins, you ask?
Real Hope (Huckabee) beats False Hope (Obama)
It really is quite simple when you have eyes to see.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Now we’re talking about the same Huckaphony who offered up an office in the Arkansas state house to the Mexican Consulate for $1/year, wanted to provide in state tuition for illegals in his state? That’s the guy who’s going to build the fence?
He’s a phony. He is a big government Republican, which is the same as a big government Democrat, but he’s got to lie even more than a Democrat to fool his base. I don’t buy his new found attraction to the fair tax. I don’t buy his tough on crime rhetoric when he’s acted the opposite.
He’s blowing sunshine up your a$$.
pistolero on February 12, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Sir or madam, I am not a Republican. I am a Conservative. The party has offered up conservatives in the past and I have elected to vote Republican in those instances. If the Republican offers up two liberals I have no dog in the fight. Elephant = Donkey (or jackass, whatever it is)
pistolero on February 12, 2008 at 2:04 PM
Just what kind of red pill was that?
kcd on February 12, 2008 at 2:09 PM
YEAAAA!!!! (Rising to my feet for a standing ovation). It was so very nice to walk into the polls on Long Island with my wife and she was a registered Republican.
My answer when they asked my party, “I’m a Conservative, I don’t have anybody running today”. True words
HarryStar on February 12, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Typhoon on February 12, 2008 at 12:34 PM
I agree, BO is far more vulnerable than HRC. It will become so obvious once he’s nominated.
swami on February 12, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Every RINO who votes for Hillary is one less vote for McCain.
:-)
Huckabee/Thompson will defeat Obama/Edwards this November.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 3:12 PM
She’s Out. The Republicans who are Republicans in Name Only (RINOs) are voting for her in VA and MD today, but that won’t happen in Texas because the RINOs will be supporting McCain in the “Anti-Huck” vote.
With every bit of news you get, it’s like a another piece assembled in the puzzle. Some see the “big picture” right away, others see it when the puzzle is partially completed, and others have to see the whole puzzle completed before they see it.
I’m trying to show you the big picture now:
Huckabee/Thompson defeats Obama/Edwards in November.
Some of you see it, some of you don’t. But eventually you all will. Laugh all you want. I’m laughing at “Ye of little faith”. Even though I really shouldn’t laugh. But y’all are amusing!
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 4:13 PM
Fellow FredHeads (I am one),
We all love Fred. But Fred is currently out of the race. Since Fred can’t be President, wouldn’t you like to see him be the “Chaney” of the next Administration?
Whether you like it or not, you have to admit that Huckabee/Thompson makes a lot of sense. With McCain, you get Amnesty in 2009 no matter how you vote in November 2008. With Huckabee/Thompson, you know that the fence will be completed by July 1, 2010.
Huckabee/Thompson defeats Obama/Edwards in November 2008.
Thank God (literally) for Huckabee saving you from McCain/Clinton/Obama/Edwards.
P.S. Don’t expect any man who quit the race to be a viable choice for nominee coming out of a brokered convention. Quitters don’t win and winners don’t quit.
ITookTheRedPill on February 12, 2008 at 4:23 PM
She cannot be allowed anywhere near the Oval Office again. Thinking that we can beat her with McCain is insane.
At this point no one expects her not to be the nominee, even if she loses the primary. What does that tell you?
Hillary is all growed up, she doesn’t need any help cheating from any of us.
Never Play With Fire.
Dorvillian on February 12, 2008 at 6:26 PM