Exit polls: The night of tears? Update: Fox calls Virginia for Obama; Update: Obama wins Maryland too?; Update: McCain takes VA & MD; Update: When will Huck quit?
posted at 6:19 pm on February 12, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Huckabee within a single percentage point of Maverick in Virginia, says Geraghty — a 31-point gain in three days, if true. And check this out. Among women:
And:
The lesson? Always stock up on liquor before a primary. Stand by for fuller exit poll results imminently. Virginia polls close at 7 p.m.
Update: At the risk of stating the obvious, it doesn’t much matter if Maverick actually pulls out a win in Virginia or not. The fact that it’s this close means Huckabee gets to extend the primary for another few weeks.
Update: 7 o’clock, the polls are closed, and the margin’s already great enough for Fox News to call Virginia for Obama.
The GOP race? Too close to call.
Update: Raw Story claims inside info indicating Obama wins in Maryland and D.C. too.
Update: Based on these exits, it sounds like Maverick’s going to pull it out in Virginia. Barely.
Update: Here’s the GOP exit poll in Virginia. Note the gender divide; down to the wire.
Update (MM): Fox, CNN call Virginia for McCain. “Winning ugly” is still winning.
Update (Bryan): Voting in Maryland was extended 90 minutes, so the polls there are just about to close. We should start getting some data soon.
Update (Bryan): And at 9:30 on the nose, Fox calls the GOP race for McCain. It must be a blowout. Maybe he even topped 50% for the first time. Obama also took Maryland.
Update: Say goodnight, Hucky.
[A]fter going 0 for 3 tonight, despite a valiant effort in Virginia, Huckabee is looking at probably no wins until Texas. (And I don’t think I’d automatically give him a majority or plurality in the Lone Star State, either.)
We’re going to hear a lot about how close tonight was, and Huckabee can have his head held high, but with 86 percent of precincts reporting, it’s McCain 50 percent, Huckabee 41 percent. A nine percent margin isn’t a rout, but it’s not neck-and-neck, either.
It’s a free country, and Huckabee can stay in as long as he likes. But I suspect the question, “what’s the point?” is going to get steadily louder in the coming weeks…
Update: Wow. McCain lost Navy territory?
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Above is my post from the ‘Predictions – Potomac post earlier this afternoon.
With the polls closed now and early reports that Huck is holding his own and maybe heading for an ‘upset’ lets see how close my prediction was. For all you REAL conservative dudes, never give up hope that McAmnasty will NOT get the nomination.
OBX Pete on February 12, 2008 at 7:26 PM
MT on February 12, 2008 at 7:25 PM
I could care less. I just don’t understand why Giuliani gets a free pass from Hannity and Robertson, but they drag Mav over the coals. There is going to be a day, hopefully sooner than later, when America looks at the Christian Right the way we now look at the AUMISH.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 7:28 PM
OMG, did Mitt get out too soon?
ctmom on February 12, 2008 at 7:28 PM
So, what, you’re saying Huckabee is *better*?
Laura on February 12, 2008 at 7:28 PM
The fact remains that no losing presidential candidate in postwar history has seen his party regain control of Congress. Ever heard of coattails? A victorious GOP candidate goes hand in hand with an improved congressional situation
Pax americana on February 12, 2008 at 7:28 PM
What you don’t realize is that Pat Robertson and the likes are washed up. They don’t have the power that they used to and are not a great representative of the average evangelical, imo.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:30 PM
I voted for Fred. Not my fault they never updated the ballots.
Re women voters and Obama – just got off the phone with my MIL, who is a registered Republican in MD. She was telling me that Obama is starting to appeal to even her… even after I told her about his racist church and lack of record. She said he was just something so different than what her party was offering. I’m tight with my MIL, but this makes me worried something fierce. Her husband, a poll worker, said that even in their typically Repub county, it was slow. Bad weather up there.
the goddess anna on February 12, 2008 at 7:30 PM
Obama wont last for a second term. That will give the Republicans a chance to field a CONSERVATIVE in 2012. Settling for a McCain presidency is like pooping in your own cereal bowl.
You know, it’s unbelievably thoughtless to use the word “retarded” in such a way. I hope you realize that.
Who said I wanted a Reagan conservative? I certainly never have said such a thing. I don’t even like Reagan.
I voted for him in the CA primary despite having already dropped out. I really like the guy and wish he would have stuck around. He could have at least kept Huckabee in check. Man, I hate that guy…
HebrewToYou on February 12, 2008 at 7:30 PM
david freddoso’s current gmail away message: “If you haven’t already voted for Ron Paul today, I don’t want to hear from you until you do”
jp on February 12, 2008 at 7:30 PM
Who cares! There are 4 liberal democrats left in the two primary races. ho-hum
paulsur on February 12, 2008 at 7:30 PM
That’s exactly what I’m saying !
OBX Pete on February 12, 2008 at 7:31 PM
Neither a McCain presidency nor a Huckabee presidency would be a victory for conservatives. It would be an absolute travishamocracy.
HebrewToYou on February 12, 2008 at 7:32 PM
Yeah, um… good luck with that, Pete.
Laura on February 12, 2008 at 7:32 PM
susan estrich: “I sure hope hillary wins but if those exit polls are wrong and she’s close then pity my poor racist party.”
ninjapirate on February 12, 2008 at 7:32 PM
Mitt was losing to….. Huck
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:32 PM
By the way, most Huckabee voters would never vote for a Mormon for President.
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:33 PM
They’re so ignorant. Virginians put the nation’s first elected black governor (Doug Wilder) into office years ago.
AZCoyote on February 12, 2008 at 7:33 PM
I hope that he hasn’t already appointed a flaming lib to the SC by that point. If so, the damage will have already been done.
Now, that’s retarded!
So you wasted your vote. Awesome! I’m happy for you.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:33 PM
No, of course he wouldn’t. And it seems that McCain’s weakness may well be in the Bible Belt. Neither of them are conservative – although both of them claim to be, which is probably more irritating to me than their actual views. However, staying home on election day amounts to throwing up your hands in surrender. I may vote for McCain – not because I particularly agree with him on everything, but because I agree with him on more issues than I ever will with either Obama or Hillary. But, I will absolutely vote in the general election – there’s a reason it’s called a “general” election, and I intend to support those candidates that reflect my own views.
uncivilized on February 12, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Unlike McCain, Obama has not irreversibly pissed off his base.
I got all my Republican family in Virginia to vote for Obama. They will never vote for McCain at any time.
Why Obama?
• A Dem is going to win this election as all the turnout passion is on their side.
• He is the most incompetent of the bunch and will be a one-term president.
• If the Clinton machine wins, they will hit the ground running and quickly damage the country. Can you put up with that screechy voice and Bill’s crooked finger for 8 years? Obama is much more tolerable.
Valiant on February 12, 2008 at 7:34 PM
By the way,
mostmany Huckabee voters would never vote for a Mormon for President.bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:33 PM
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Believe it or not, McCain’s base isn’t CPAC, no matter what the MSM tells you
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:35 PM
That is nonsense! I voted for Huckabee and I def. would have voted for Romney if he would have went on to win the nomination. The same thing goes for every other Huckabee supporter that I know.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:36 PM
So let’s just throw the country down the drain at a time of war? Sounds like al-Qaeda talking points
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:36 PM
The theory of the establishment and MSM: Conservatives will unite behind McShamnesty.
REALITY: every primary since super duper Tuesday!
LMAO…go Huck…if only to embarrass McShmnesty and all his open borders supporters!
jwp1964 on February 12, 2008 at 7:37 PM
But don’t you be a bigot and dis the Evangelicals by G-d or we will take our Huckster and leave. Hmpfh.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 7:37 PM
You like Fred, but not Reagan? I’d be interested to hear your rationale.
Big S on February 12, 2008 at 7:38 PM
To what end? So the Democrats win in the Fall, is that your goal?
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:38 PM
Haven’t we learned to ignore those by now? I’ll stick to watching the return come in.
RW Wacko on February 12, 2008 at 7:39 PM
If voting for Fred! is wrong…I don’t want to be right…I will “waste” one vote in the primary and one vote in the General in November….and guess what…I will feel really great about it! No nose-holding, no need to shower afterwards….just a clear conservative conscience.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 7:39 PM
Well, for some, that’s what they’d like to see happen for a multitude of reasons…
eanax on February 12, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Where’s the best place to track the returns, CNN has Huck up 51%-42% with 7% reporting.
RW Wacko on February 12, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Reagan raised taxes.
HebrewToYou on February 12, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Maryland is gonna extend voting for an extra 90 minutes because of the weather…
uncivilized on February 12, 2008 at 7:41 PM
And Fred supported McCain-Feingold…
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:41 PM
He lowered them too, so the topic is moot…
eanax on February 12, 2008 at 7:42 PM
And he admitted he was wrong on it.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 7:43 PM
McCain now up on Hucky. Probably to stay…although the Norfolk/Va Beach area still needs to come in and some in the western part of Va.
Virginia
SouthernGent on February 12, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Virginia has a lot of evangelicals in the central part of the state, but there are also a lot of military in the Norfolk area and in Northern Virginia. Might make it close between Huckabee and McCain.
AZCoyote on February 12, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Well, that is a very foolish thing to wish for while we are at war.
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:43 PM
POLLS IN MARYLAND RUNNING ANOTHER HOUR AND A HALF.
Vizzini on February 12, 2008 at 7:44 PM
I just don’t understand why people are still so enamored with Fred. He’s just a shamnesty-loving RINO posing as a true conservative.
Big S on February 12, 2008 at 7:45 PM
Do you give that same leniency to McCain? He was wrong on the Bush tax cuts but now supports him. Do you give that same leniency to Romney with regards to abortion? A lot people complain about politicians who claim to be one thing but have a record that shows something different.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:46 PM
Unlike McCain, who continued to defend the Lieberal Protection Act.
steveegg on February 12, 2008 at 7:47 PM
I think McCain’s stated policies of treating terrorists to criminal court rights, banning waterboarding, opening the border, etc. sound more like the al-Qaeda bill of rights than anything Obama has said.
Valiant on February 12, 2008 at 7:47 PM
Anybody, but McShamnesty…unless of course he can put his ego in check and say ” I was wrong about te immigration bill. I will finish the fence and I will not sign any legislation resembling McShamnesty-Kennedy”.
Until then he is f’in dead to me. Go Huck, make the RINOs sweat baby!
jwp1964 on February 12, 2008 at 7:47 PM
Does McCain? I seem to recall him saying a few weeks ago that he would vote against them all over again.
steveegg on February 12, 2008 at 7:47 PM
Hi I’m the Christian Right and I would love to cut off my nose to spite my face.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 7:48 PM
I didn’t say I was wishing for it; I was pointing out that there are those out there in conservative politics who wouldn’t mind seeing the Dems win come Novemeber so there is something to rally against next time ’round…
IMO, it is a very strong possisbility that the Dems will win in November regardless of who is running on the Republican ticket. Just llok at the numbers that are turning out and voting in the Democratic primaries/caucuses. Something to think about…
eanax on February 12, 2008 at 7:48 PM
They extended the voting in MD for 1.5 hours. roads are miserable.
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:48 PM
I don’t know…you seem like the spiteful one. Most of your posts seem to be about how stupid you think Christians are and how you think they’re inbreds.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:50 PM
What was I thinking. That’s it. Huckmania vs. Obama. It would be worse than when Ronnie Reagan whipped Mondale like 49 states to one. Embarrassing.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 7:51 PM
The difference (and there is a HUGE one) is that Thompson is a true and abiding conservative that made one mistake and owned it. Romney was wrongheaded on Abortion, gay marriage…weak on gun ownership, instituted a floundering universal health care plan and increased “fees” SUBSTANTIALLY as governor. Something that really bothers me, too is that he ran on a pro-choice stance to win MA, but says that any decisions he made in office were pro-life based…that smacks of betrayal to me and of someone who says anything to get elected.
McCain is wrong on Feingold, Amnesty and the Bush tax cuts and when called on it, says he’ll give us our G-D fence, he excuses his refusal on the tax cuts saying he wanted reduced spending TOO and he has never admitted that finance reform is wrong.
Fred has a clearly stated set of conservative principles that he has ALWAYS gone by, even when it meant voting 99-1. That is a candidate worth standing up for.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 7:52 PM
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:50 PM
Yeah, they’ve been imposing there values on everyone since I don’t know, forever. There pissed, because they don’t get to run things for the first time ever.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 7:53 PM
This nonsense must end NOW. McCain is not the best choice (FRED was), but he’s WAY better than the liberal, sleazeball Huckabee.
Please send this RINO home, NOW.
bigred on February 12, 2008 at 7:54 PM
What? Brit Hume gets the night off? Geez!
SouthernGent on February 12, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Ok, I’m not disagreeing with you but when someone asked you why you didn’t like Reagan you gave one reason only…taxes. Therefor it seemed to me that you only needed one reason to not like a candidate. I agree that we should look at a candidates record as a whole (if you look at Reagan’s as a whole I don’t know why you wouldn’t like him).
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:55 PM
I apologize if I’m a little rough tonight. It’s just amazing that we have a candidate that can win the middle which is what is needed in a year like this. While the dems fight it out for the next few months we have a chance to get an early start, but Huckmania and the congregation like Dobson, Robertson, and whoever can’t help but screw it up. Not to mention how many Mav votes didnt’ come out, because this thing is OVER.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 7:56 PM
VA results are being posted very quickly here (this looks like the official site):
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/F88C865B-87AB-494E-8C2E-599FED2DF7C6/Unofficial/1_s.shtml
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 7:56 PM
Hebrew said she didn’t like Reagan…I voted for him twice…my first vote at 18. I thought Reagan was an excellent President.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 7:57 PM
It’s going to be that bad no matter who the Repub is. The Messiah will crush anyone. I don’t like it, but I rather have a Dem Lib who the Repubs in Congress will fight tooth and nail rather than a RINO Pres who the Repubs in Congress will roll-over for. Given our choices I’m hoping for a dem win in Nov, there I said it. This will be the first time I’ve voted for a dem for Pres since I started voting for Pres in 1984. It kills me, but no chance am I voting for McShamnesty. Period.
jwp1964 on February 12, 2008 at 7:57 PM
McCain just pulled ahead.
Vizzini on February 12, 2008 at 7:58 PM
Thanks.
RW Wacko on February 12, 2008 at 7:59 PM
Time to watch the Tarheels beat the crap out of the Wahoos. I’ll be back at half, hopefully Huck’s crew voted early since they have to be in bed by 6:30. That way Mav will rally late like in Mizzou to bring sense to the matter.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 7:59 PM
It frustrates me that you feel that way but I can’t say that I blame you. That’s what we get for letting bigmouths like Robertson speak for us in the media. Just know this, they don’t speak for all evangelicals. Many don’t fit the sterotypical mold that you see them in. Don’t judge ‘em all based on the actions of a few blowhards.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 7:59 PM
My rationale as well.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Washington, D.C. polls closed.
amerpundit on February 12, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Oops…sorry, I didn’t mean to get you guys confused.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 8:00 PM
jwp1964 on February 12, 2008 at 7:57 PM
I like a matchup of Mav v. Obama. It’s been quiet on the international front for months. If even a rumor of trouble pops up, Obama’s six point lead goes bye bye.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 8:01 PM
Come on Gomer, let’s squeak out VA. Traffic was horrible in NOVA during rush hour. I think there was a large accident. I think this will hurt McCain. There are still VA voters deadlocked in traffic well past polls closing. That means Gomer’s supporters have more fuel for their God’s Hand rhetoric. I love it. Who doesn’t want to see a Huckabee rally to at least take it to convention if possible? How could you political junkies pass up entertainment like that scenario? We really have nothing better to do than complain about McCain possibly for a little while longer or more likely for four years.
LevStrauss on February 12, 2008 at 8:01 PM
I consider it an honor to be confused with Hebrew. LOL
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 8:01 PM
Yeah, they need some wins after my Dukies beat them last week. :)
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 8:02 PM
I completely disagree. It’s gonna be Nixon v. Kennedy all over again with a twist of race to add more drama. No way Mav can beat Obama Akbar…not gonna happen.
ihasurnominashun on February 12, 2008 at 8:03 PM
MSNBC just called DC for Obama, even thought the polls aren’t closing. Hillary is going to love that network.
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 8:03 PM
I’m no Huckabee fan, in any sense of the word, but McCain has done far more damage to the Republican party than Huckabee ever did.
I cannot reward McCain with the nomination or Presidency after what he has done to the party and his position on illegal immigration. I just can’t do it.
voiceofreason on February 12, 2008 at 8:04 PM
OOPS DC polls have closed. MD polls are staying open
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Hell they could have called DC for Obama three weeks ago.
LevStrauss on February 12, 2008 at 8:05 PM
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Without two of our best seven players. Congrats, send my love to your rat coach.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Obama’s Virginia crushing victory puts him in delegate lead.
Rove diagnosis of Billary campaign condition: Critical.
Not yet Ding Dong, but definitely a Ding
petefrt on February 12, 2008 at 8:06 PM
Don’t be hating on Coach K. :)
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 8:06 PM
We are doomed, doomed.
On the upside, Megan Kelly is just smokin’ on those clips
Dudley Smith on February 12, 2008 at 8:07 PM
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 8:06 PM
Ratboy will always be second best down here bro. Maybe he’s better liked in New Jersey or upstate NY where all Duke’s students come from.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Hell this is going to be close.
Only 2000 votes between Huck and Mac, after 30% reporting.
Pax americana on February 12, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Huckabee is cleaning up in western Virginia. Watch for Roanoke and Lynchburg City results.
Can any Virginians explain why some cities aren’t in a county? WEIRD!
SouthernGent on February 12, 2008 at 8:10 PM
VA Precincts in: 46.07%
John McCain 47.59%
Mike Huckabee 43.78%
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/F88C865B-87AB-494E-8C2E-599FED2DF7C6/Unofficial/1_s.shtml
bnelson44 on February 12, 2008 at 8:10 PM
SouthernGent on February 12, 2008 at 8:10 PM
It’s a commonwealth.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 8:10 PM
I smell a Huckabee recount. Again.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 8:12 PM
Fortunately the big towns in the E have only just started, so Mac’s lead should grow.
Pax americana on February 12, 2008 at 8:12 PM
McCain is pulling away it seems. Chesterfield County hasn’t posted yet though, and I’d expect that to go to Huck by a decent margin.
Great link bnelson!
MT on February 12, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Nah, that will only happen if they decide to stop counting the votes with only 87% of the votes counted and with only a 200 vote difference.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Ah
SouthernGent on February 12, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Depends on your perspective as to whether that is fortunate or not.
Valiant on February 12, 2008 at 8:14 PM
Only if a RAT McShamnesty supporter calls it before all the votes are counted.
jwp1964 on February 12, 2008 at 8:14 PM
jwp1964 on February 12, 2008 at 8:14 PM
They did there little recount again and Mav won again. Time to unite.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 12, 2008 at 8:15 PM
Mac’s lead up to 5000 with 50% reporting.
Pax americana on February 12, 2008 at 8:16 PM
Yeah, I heard. I don’t know why they didn’t just count them all to begin with. All that did was raise suspicion in people.
keepinitreal on February 12, 2008 at 8:17 PM
Huck just closed within 3% and 4K votes…
MT on February 12, 2008 at 8:17 PM
Lynchburg and Roanoke County and Roanoke City aren’t all in yet. Should be HUGE for Huckabee…about 115,000 possible votes there. However, unfortunately, the ‘burbs of DC have tossed Virginia into a purple state.
SouthernGent on February 12, 2008 at 8:18 PM
CNN: Most of the counties Huck is strong in are small, and votes have been already counted.
amerpundit on February 12, 2008 at 8:18 PM
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