Super Tuesday state by state; Updated; Maps, delegate counts added; Video update: McCain claims front-runner status; Veep prognostication
posted at 10:21 pm on February 5, 2008 by Bryan
Send to a Friend |
printer-friendly
Here’s a chart to help keep track of what’s occurred in which states. I’ll keep updating it as the night goes.
| State | GOP | DEM | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | Huckabee | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AK | Romney | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AR | Huckabee | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AZ | McCain | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CA | McCain | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CT | McCain | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CO | Romney | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DE | McCain | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GA | Huckabee | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ID | (May 27) | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IL | McCain | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| KS | (Feb 9) | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MA | Romney | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MN | Romney | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MO | McCain | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MT | Romney | (June 3) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ND | Romney | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NJ | McCain | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NM | (June 3) | UND | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NY | McCain | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OK | McCain | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TN | Huckabee | Clinton | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UT | Romney | Obama | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WV | Huckabee | (May 13) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Clinton | 825 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obama | 732 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| McCain | 615 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Romney | 268 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Huckabee | 169 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Blog Speculation
McCain to finish 3rd in GA?
Brokered convention for the GOP?
Huckabee as Rodney Dangerfield?
I see down in comments and elsewhere, there’s shock at Huckabee’s strong showing across the South. He’s doing it without money, and the question is how? This is the same question that popped up after Huckabee won Iowa, and I think I have the answer to it. First, he has the mega and medium church network I’ve mentioned before. We’ve all underestimated the power of that network, which doesn’t cost a dime to tap into. It’s all word of mouth from one church or parachurch group to another. Second, his phone banks are all virtual. Shortly before the Florida primary there were reports that he had pulled his people out of that state. That was true to some extent, but it didn’t matter, because the Huckabee campaign relies for much of its non-robo phone work on volunteers who dial in from their own home, wherever they happen to be located, and make calls that are targeted to whichever states the campaign feels like it needs to hit. So he’s running a very lean, almost word-of-mouth operation that’s proving itself to be beyond the usual political radar of ads and such but quite strong in states that are receptive to his mix of social conservatism and populism.
Update: I’ll be on the Rusty Humphries show shortly to talk about the night.
Update: First results are coming in from CA. Hillary and McCain lead.
Update: Here’s how the Super Tuesday votes broke down by state/region. It’s clear to me that Huckabee is very much a regional candidate, but his region happens to be the GOP’s stronghold states in the South. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to take Mississippi and Texas to hold the entire old South minus Louisiana. And at least he has a region. McCain won in all the major winner-take-all states; Romney is a man without a region, essentially.
Update: McCain sums up the state of the race after tonight.
Update: Looking strictly at the maps, McCain would be strengthened in the South by picking up Huckabee or another prominent Southern conservative as a running mate. McCain is weak in the South and weak among conservatives. Phil Gramm would be a likely choice, being born in Georgia but serving in the Senate from Texas and with a nearly unmatched economic conservative pedigree. Where is Gramm on immigration? About where McCain is, making Huckabee arguably the more conservative choice on that issue. Who else does that leave us? TX Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who has a much weaker social and economics pedigree but a pretty solid national security record. She did vote against shamnesty, so she’s to McCain’s and Huckabee’s and Gramm’s right on that. And the woman factor might offset some of the Democrats’ historic ticket’s built-in advantages. Who else? A prominent Southern governor who has been successful — which brings us back to Huckabee. The problem with Huckabee is that beyond the South and evangelicals, he doesn’t bring much to the ticket and the GOP ought to hold advantages in the South and among evangelicals without Huck on the ticket. It’s hard to come up with a rationale for Romney getting on the ticket, from an electoral map point of view. It’s clear that he’s weakest in the South, not sure he can put anything up North in play. I guess one argument in his favor would be that he might help out in the North, but that’s assuming that the South stays with McCain and no Southerner on the ticket. I’m not so sure that that’s the case. Romney would make a great Secretary of the Treasury. McCain might be silly enough to put his friend Chuck Hagel on the ticket. It would be a massive mistake to do that, but it wouldn’t shock me if he did.
On the Dem side, it’s still a fight but Obama won where the Democrats aren’t likely to win in the fall. Hillary won traditional Democrat strongholds, and in a more broad-based fashion than Obama for the most part. A Clinton-Obama ticket carries a lot of history, but would be a regionalized, two-Senator ticket. Michelle called her pick, assuming Clinton becomes the nominee, for Wesley Clark. That seems likely as things stand now. None of the Dems’ other candidates would bring to the ticket what Clark would in terms of perceived gravitas. I said, perceived gravitas.
Update: Alaska is finally starting to report in on the GOP side. Romney has the early lead.
Update: Flip goes the extra mile on number crunching, with prettier charts than mine. I never claimed to be an HTML god… And yes, I realize that my Dem map has NM for Clinton when it hasn’t been called yet. It was called, erroneously, last night. Right now it’s trending Obama and I have that map ready once it’s official.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: [1] 2 3 »
now THAT is unfortunate
Drunk Report on February 5, 2008 at 10:23 PM
You should add delegate counts to each of those.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 10:23 PM
InstaP says Utah went Obama.
Topsecretk9 on February 5, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Though Romney isn’t in there very much, he just needs to be in there enough.
Weebork on February 5, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Fox called uT for obama.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 10:26 PM
MN obama on fox
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Get ready for Sen Franken. Yeah!
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 10:27 PM
McCain, McCain, McCain.
Blarg, I need a drink. And, oh look, I found one.
NeoconNews.com on February 5, 2008 at 10:27 PM
I think I’ll join you… Jameson’s, straight up please!
Frozen Tex on February 5, 2008 at 10:29 PM
ND romney on fox
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 10:30 PM
This chart makes me sad
offroadaz on February 5, 2008 at 10:30 PM
North Dakota goes to Romney.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 10:30 PM
A couple of shockers, Romney took Utah (sarc) and McCain didn’t take Arizona (not sarc).
Looks as though McCain is going to be the Rep nominee if the above trend continues. I hope he has learned his lesson from Shamnesty as I will feel much better about voting for him as I think he is the lesser of two evils (the other more evil being Clintoon) and for me our foreign policy and winning the long war are more important than his stance on immigration.
Like I said, hopefully McCain has learned his lesson and will build the wall, beef up border security, and not give amnesty to all the illegal aliens already here, one can hope.
Liberty or Death on February 5, 2008 at 10:31 PM
If I go to bed will it be better in the morning?
TexasDan on February 5, 2008 at 10:31 PM
Wow, when did you start drinking? With crazy words like that, I’m impressed you can still form sentences.
NeoconNews.com on February 5, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Mitt: This campaign is going on.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 10:33 PM
CNN has McCain at 51% and Romney 21% in AZ @ 19% in.
Weebork on February 5, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Those results depress me.
I think in the general, I’ll vote for this guy.
PolitiNOOB on February 5, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Romney wins MN, MT.
Still waiting on CA, CO.
CABE on February 5, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Is the “they haven’t” a recording during this Mitt speech? It sounded awful.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Bring on Huckabee! Romney is never going to win in 2008. Huckabee is for the fence, victory in Iraq, victory over jihadis, lower taxes, and he’s conservative in social positions. He’s a former governor. He’s very articulate. He’s a great public speaker who communicates almost as well as Ronald Reagan. I went to his web site and read the Issues section. A lot of good stuff there. Huckabee helped a lot of people as governor during Hurricane Katrina. He’s a good guy. He’s not a crazed religious nut. He’s just a good guy.
What’s not to like? Where’s the Huck-a-love?
indythinker on February 5, 2008 at 10:41 PM
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Huck GA and TN
McCain AZ
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Huckabee get Ga, McCain get Arizona
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 10:41 PM
With this being Super Tuesday, I have decided to stay Super Drunk until 2012 or until a Real Conservative runs for POTUS.
hfcomms230 on February 5, 2008 at 10:41 PM
What’s happening in MO??? I dont remember any polls showing Huckabee in that race, but he’s winning with 65% reporting?
krabbas on February 5, 2008 at 10:43 PM
Someone in the room feels like Perot.
regal on February 5, 2008 at 10:43 PM
Drudge is showing Huckabee winning in MO.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 10:44 PM
Good News: Hundreds of people in the LA County Jail have registered to vote.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 10:47 PM
I have been watching these returns and starting to think strategy. The best shot for keeping McShamnesty out of the top spot is to have this thing go to a split convention. So with that in mind it is not all bad the Huckabee is winning some of those Southern states - it is better than McCain getting them cause it keeps him away from the magic number. As long as Romney can win some of those western delegates this stays all even. For me then the objective becomes keeping McCain away from number 1191
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Except Huck is gonna accept a VP slot from McCain, I guaranfriggintee it.
doubleplusundead on February 5, 2008 at 10:49 PM
I am truly baffled, how did Huckabee win so many states in the south? With less money then Mitt Romney and John McCain. Not that many ads he was ignored during the debate and he hasn’t received that much press lately. Truly amazing.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 10:49 PM
Now, what are you talking about, looky here!
Here’s this chart I have, listen up, Larry!
Am I getting through to ya?
Listen, you can’t walk your dog in the same raincoat twice…
Ah, yes. Ross Perot…
Weebork on February 5, 2008 at 10:49 PM
McCainiac and Huckleberry will figure something out like they did in WV.
91Veteran on February 5, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Maybe, my point in saying that is that if it goes to convention that maybe McCain doesn’t get the nomination therefore no VP slot for Huckabee.
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 10:50 PM
More scary.
91Veteran on February 5, 2008 at 10:51 PM
Its because Huck is an egregious Bible-thumper and Southerner, his demagoguery doesn’t effect us, but identity politics seems to be a common theme this year.
doubleplusundead on February 5, 2008 at 10:52 PM
Not for nothing, but the Paulnuts seem to have come to the realization (finally) that their man isn’t quite as popular as those online polls suggest…it’s on to rEVOLution 3.0
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 10:53 PM
I guess we’ll have to suck it up and vote McCain in November. Jeez it sucks not having anyone or anything to vote for.
roux on February 5, 2008 at 10:53 PM
Hillary is speaking and her cough has gone, her voice is fine. What a miraculous recovery.
infidel65 on February 5, 2008 at 10:54 PM
I know everybody thinks it was some conspiracy but but a caucus /convention style primary is different. This is normal operating procedure at this type of thing. Caucuses are bloody things, and if you are McCain it makes strategic sense to back Huckabee over Romney, whether Huckabee has anything to say about it. So although it is nice (since when is politics nice) it makes sense and it may not have been some big conspiracy. I still say that the best chance to keep McCain away from the top is to have a split convention, at least then you have a shot.
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 10:55 PM
Well, I just got back from our precinct caucus and Romney took 95% of the vote so I hope that follows through the rest of the state.
boomer on February 5, 2008 at 10:57 PM
Oops - that should say “although it isn’t nice”
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 10:57 PM
Possibly the only one, although I bet McCain thought he would do better in other states.
91Veteran on February 5, 2008 at 10:58 PM
Hey why isn’t Colorado in that list?
boomer on February 5, 2008 at 10:59 PM
Perhaps not a conspiracy in the classic sense, but certainly arbitrary and corrupt, where the rules for winning delegates vary from state to state for no logical reason.
Nosferightu on February 5, 2008 at 10:59 PM
What a joke that was. So whenever a question comes up start hacking, loud enough to try drown out the questioner, then have your fawning media spin it as a HEALTH SCARE!
91Veteran on February 5, 2008 at 11:00 PM
I agree with you he has to be disappointed that he lost to Huckabee in all those Southern state because he is trying to be the consensus candidate and he came no where close to that tonight.
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 11:01 PM
If it goes to convention; you won’t win in the general. Every other time, a brokered convention candidate lost. I think it’s time to get behind McCain, sadly. Let the democrats destroy each other for the next few months.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 11:02 PM
You know its almost over and I havent even had the chance to cast a vote yet here in Ohio
William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 11:04 PM
Maybe it is arbitrary, but that is the way they do it there. I was at a convention just a few months ago where the same guy was on top for 7 rounds of ballots, and then two guys dropped out made an agreement to back the number two guy and guess what, he won. So this is how it goes - as long as states get to pick their own system we are going to have these things.
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 11:05 PM
You know its almost over and I havent even had the chance to cast a vote yet here in Ohio
infidel65 on February 5, 2008 at 11:06 PM
Ok now I see it perhaps I am just blind.
boomer on February 5, 2008 at 11:07 PM
Unless the democrats go to a split convention too or better yet Obama goes in ahead with more delegates but the “super delegates” end up giving it to Hillary. Then we are talking a free for all - it should be fun to watch at least.
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 11:08 PM
I disagree. There’s an assumption that churches and para-church organizations have an emphasis on politics. My experiences in these realms say otherwise. Outside of radio talk show hosts on Christian stations, there isn’t much political rhetoric in the churches. Many pastors realize that politics is a private matter and thus avoid endorsing a politician.
jediwebdude on February 5, 2008 at 11:08 PM
Fun is less important to ensuring, at least, gridlock for a few years.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 11:10 PM
I’m not saying that they have a political emphasis; they don’t. But people in them do talk, and they talk politics along with everything else, and I think Huckabee’s rise can be tied to how these churches communicate between and among themselves.
Bryan on February 5, 2008 at 11:11 PM
what are you people even talking about? mccain had a chance to wrap up the nomination, he didnt come close to doing it. huckabee isn’t close to doing it. romney isn’t close to doing it. its not over by a long shot.
therightwinger on February 5, 2008 at 11:19 PM
I won’t vote for McLame.
Ceroth on February 5, 2008 at 11:20 PM
No, it’s not “over”, but first-place McCain has 3-times as many delegates as second-place Romney…
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 11:22 PM
So where are we now?
NeoconNews.com on February 5, 2008 at 11:22 PM
I agree that is why I think this may go to convention. With the big three splitting the single biggest voting night of the primary season nobody has this thing won, and I am not even sure anybody has that much momentum (though the media will all say McCain does).
Govgirl on February 5, 2008 at 11:23 PM
…with CA not counted yet.
91Veteran on February 5, 2008 at 11:24 PM
True…I’m hoping, now with the polls closed, we’ll hear something soon from the left coast. I’m sticking with my prediction of a McCain win in Cali by 3% or 4% over Mitt.
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 11:29 PM
I think McCain will win MO by about 10,000 votes. St Louis City and St Louis County still have plenty of precincts to count and Maverick is kicking ass there.
infidel65 on February 5, 2008 at 11:30 PM
I think I just saw Romney is the projected winner in Montana.
boomer on February 5, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Vote for a Republican Congress.
We’ll need it if McCain slides into the nomination.
And loses roundly to a Dem.
profitsbeard on February 5, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Yup…
doriangrey on February 5, 2008 at 11:47 PM
They may have called MO but with them still countin St. Louis… here is the current standing:
Clinton, Hillary Dem 356,883 49%
Obama, Barack Dem 347,624 48%
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Mitt Romney 7,244 54%
John McCain 2,924 22%
Mike Huckabee 2,165 16%
Ron Paul 1,033 8%
Thats with 21% reported in CO
boomer on February 5, 2008 at 11:55 PM
CO has been called for Romney, TN for Huckabee.
Bryan on February 5, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Heh, what can I say I can hold my liquor. I didn’t say I was happy about voting for McShamnesty but if given the choice of having another 4 years of the Clintoons in office
or a president that will not back down to Islamo-fascists I’ll take McCain over Billary or any other demo-rat any day!
No matter how drunk I was I would never vote for Obama or Hildabeast, there just isn’t enough whiskey in Arizona to ever make me do that!
Liberty or Death on February 5, 2008 at 11:58 PM
Romney picks up MT.
Bryan on February 5, 2008 at 11:59 PM
Is GA winner take all? It was a close race for all 3.
funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 12:02 AM
Please post Missouri!!
McCain took the gold.
So did Monica Lewinsky’s ex-boyfriend’s wife.
gatewaypundit on February 6, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Southerners also like their guns. Romney was questionable on the gun issue. He also does sound like a super-Yankee. I did when we first moved here too, and folks can be a little weird about that.
funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 12:04 AM
Indiana primary May 8. Their site lists only Romney on the GOP side. Did no one else bother to get on the ballot?
mikeyboss on February 6, 2008 at 12:04 AM
First, he has the mega and medium church network I’ve mentioned before. We’ve all underestimated the power of that network, which doesn’t cost a dime to tap into. It’s all word of mouth from one church or parachurch group to another.>>
I would think that this would be a problem with the tax exempt status of the churches involved.
belad on February 6, 2008 at 12:04 AM
Just turned the news back on….
To Obama giving his vapid “Si! Si! Puede” speech again.
I knew I should have kept the TV off … Or at least tuned directly to the Simpsons rerun.
LegendHasIt on February 6, 2008 at 12:06 AM
It’s not official and formalize, it’s unofficial. People talking over potluck lunches and whatnot.
TX Mom on February 6, 2008 at 12:11 AM
In the words of 3CPO…”We are doomed”.
boomer on February 6, 2008 at 12:11 AM
oops
boomer on February 6, 2008 at 12:16 AM
Liberty or Death,
John McVain has lusted for the Office of the Presidency for as long as the Hildabeast. In all that time he has stuck his thumb in the eye of conservatives whenever it suited his whim. I seriously doubt he has had a change of heart or had an epiphany. Just like the Hildabeast he will say or do anything to satisfy his lust.
BTW, it will be a very difficult task to ‘hold the nose’ and ‘vote for the lesser of two evils’. It will come down to how really screwed up the economy is and how far the dollar has sunk, because the big ‘R’ or even the bigger ‘D’ is just around the corner and this clown will act just like the Hildabeast and the DemCong to deal with it.
belad on February 6, 2008 at 12:17 AM
Second look at Zombie Regan/John Wayne ticket
Mojack420 on February 6, 2008 at 12:20 AM
This entire primary system totally sucks.
Above, several people have already complained that they haven’t gotten to vote yet…. Heck, I don’t get my chance until mid June…. As if there will be ANY choice by then.
It is ridiculous: This extended campaign season; the helter skelter primaries and caucuses…. I say change it to a Super-Duper Tuesday, in all 50 states, sometime in July; More than enough time for the nominees to attack each other before November…..
(Although I’d be happy with just about any date as long as it is nationwide on the same day.)
Has the Primary system ALWAYS been so lousy? I can see it being drawn out over months and months back in the horse and buggy days, to give the candidates an opportunity to campaign across the country, but in the days of TV, Internet and Jets, it is an abomination.
LegendHasIt on February 6, 2008 at 12:22 AM
TX mom,
It doesn’t really matter if its formal or not. The problem arises from the fact that it is being used for political purposes.
belad on February 6, 2008 at 12:22 AM
I’m curious how much Huckabee’s win in the early West Virginia caucus impacted later states.
sulla on February 6, 2008 at 12:31 AM
LegendHasit,
I agree with you, make the primaries all on the same day and make them closed, no crossing over. If you want to vote in the democrat or republican primary, register in that party. If you want to register as independent, fine, vote in the independent primary or vote for the candidate of your choosing in the general.
This primary season has really bummed me out because it was too long. The rhetoric has gotten too coarse and personal. I am going to have to take a long break to decide who gets my vote in November, if I decide to vote.
belad on February 6, 2008 at 12:32 AM
Okay, fine…I guess I’ll be a McCain supporter…whatever…
greekinfidel on February 6, 2008 at 12:34 AM
Ok, is it just me or could we be seeing a repeat of the 1968 election? Look at the voting patterns.
sophiesmom on February 6, 2008 at 12:36 AM
Time to pick up some McVain bumper stickers, folks. Unless you want HRC or Messiah confiscating 40% of your paycheck.
fiatboomer on February 6, 2008 at 12:42 AM
Nice map. The fact that you chose the color blue to represent McCain is astonishingly accurate.
Knuckledragger on February 6, 2008 at 12:43 AM
I hope that everyone who cares to post here also cared enough to caucus/vote if they live in a Super state. I did, and it was great to see “We, The People” in action. Whatever the outcome, it’s great to be a part of the process. I’m still witt Mitt.
Doug on February 6, 2008 at 12:46 AM
I voted (Mitt) in CA.
I got my licence to gripe…at least until November.
sulla on February 6, 2008 at 12:49 AM
McCain would make the Dems spend a Bunch of $ in the expensive media markets of NY, NJ and CA..
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 12:58 AM
Looks like a McCain/Huck Ticket Would win..
Just looking at those charts..
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 1:00 AM
Not sure.. We would want to put Huck on there..
I’d personally rather see Haley Barbour.. >:}
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 1:02 AM
Comment pages: [1] 2 3 »