Super Tuesday state by state; Updated; Maps, delegate counts added; Video update: McCain claims front-runner status; Veep prognostication

posted at 10:21 pm on February 5, 2008 by Bryan

Here’s a chart to help keep track of what’s occurred in which states. I’ll keep updating it as the night goes.

super-results.jpg

State GOP DEM
AL Huckabee Obama
AK Romney Obama
AR Huckabee Clinton
AZ McCain Clinton
CA McCain Clinton
CT McCain Obama
CO Romney Obama
DE McCain Obama
GA Huckabee Obama
ID (May 27) Obama
IL McCain Obama
KS (Feb 9) Obama
MA Romney Clinton
MN Romney Obama
MO McCain Obama
MT Romney (June 3)
ND Romney Obama
NJ McCain Clinton
NM (June 3) UND
NY McCain Clinton
OK McCain Clinton
TN Huckabee Clinton
UT Romney Obama
WV Huckabee (May 13)

delegates.jpg

Clinton 825
Obama 732
McCain 615
Romney 268
Huckabee 169

Blog Speculation
McCain to finish 3rd in GA?
Brokered convention for the GOP?
Huckabee as Rodney Dangerfield?

I see down in comments and elsewhere, there’s shock at Huckabee’s strong showing across the South. He’s doing it without money, and the question is how? This is the same question that popped up after Huckabee won Iowa, and I think I have the answer to it. First, he has the mega and medium church network I’ve mentioned before. We’ve all underestimated the power of that network, which doesn’t cost a dime to tap into. It’s all word of mouth from one church or parachurch group to another. Second, his phone banks are all virtual. Shortly before the Florida primary there were reports that he had pulled his people out of that state. That was true to some extent, but it didn’t matter, because the Huckabee campaign relies for much of its non-robo phone work on volunteers who dial in from their own home, wherever they happen to be located, and make calls that are targeted to whichever states the campaign feels like it needs to hit. So he’s running a very lean, almost word-of-mouth operation that’s proving itself to be beyond the usual political radar of ads and such but quite strong in states that are receptive to his mix of social conservatism and populism.

Update: I’ll be on the Rusty Humphries show shortly to talk about the night.

Update: First results are coming in from CA. Hillary and McCain lead.

Update: Here’s how the Super Tuesday votes broke down by state/region. It’s clear to me that Huckabee is very much a regional candidate, but his region happens to be the GOP’s stronghold states in the South. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to take Mississippi and Texas to hold the entire old South minus Louisiana. And at least he has a region. McCain won in all the major winner-take-all states; Romney is a man without a region, essentially.

us-map-gop.jpg

us-map-dem.jpg

Update: McCain sums up the state of the race after tonight.

mccain-super.png

Update: Looking strictly at the maps, McCain would be strengthened in the South by picking up Huckabee or another prominent Southern conservative as a running mate. McCain is weak in the South and weak among conservatives. Phil Gramm would be a likely choice, being born in Georgia but serving in the Senate from Texas and with a nearly unmatched economic conservative pedigree. Where is Gramm on immigration? About where McCain is, making Huckabee arguably the more conservative choice on that issue. Who else does that leave us? TX Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who has a much weaker social and economics pedigree but a pretty solid national security record. She did vote against shamnesty, so she’s to McCain’s and Huckabee’s and Gramm’s right on that. And the woman factor might offset some of the Democrats’ historic ticket’s built-in advantages. Who else? A prominent Southern governor who has been successful — which brings us back to Huckabee. The problem with Huckabee is that beyond the South and evangelicals, he doesn’t bring much to the ticket and the GOP ought to hold advantages in the South and among evangelicals without Huck on the ticket. It’s hard to come up with a rationale for Romney getting on the ticket, from an electoral map point of view. It’s clear that he’s weakest in the South, not sure he can put anything up North in play. I guess one argument in his favor would be that he might help out in the North, but that’s assuming that the South stays with McCain and no Southerner on the ticket. I’m not so sure that that’s the case. Romney would make a great Secretary of the Treasury. McCain might be silly enough to put his friend Chuck Hagel on the ticket. It would be a massive mistake to do that, but it wouldn’t shock me if he did.

On the Dem side, it’s still a fight but Obama won where the Democrats aren’t likely to win in the fall. Hillary won traditional Democrat strongholds, and in a more broad-based fashion than Obama for the most part. A Clinton-Obama ticket carries a lot of history, but would be a regionalized, two-Senator ticket. Michelle called her pick, assuming Clinton becomes the nominee, for Wesley Clark. That seems likely as things stand now. None of the Dems’ other candidates would bring to the ticket what Clark would in terms of perceived gravitas. I said, perceived gravitas.

Update: Alaska is finally starting to report in on the GOP side. Romney has the early lead.

Update: Flip goes the extra mile on number crunching, with prettier charts than mine. I never claimed to be an HTML god… And yes, I realize that my Dem map has NM for Clinton when it hasn’t been called yet. It was called, erroneously, last night. Right now it’s trending Obama and I have that map ready once it’s official.


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Prediction: McCain will pick someone who looks about like he does as VP. Keep praying for him to pick a conservative VP but it ain’t gonna happen! McCain has proven what an ass he is and how spiteful he can be. He is arrogant and last night just confirmed to him that he does not need conservatives to win the nomination. He will not reach out to conservatives and THAT will definately put a dim in the white house.

kcd on February 6, 2008 at 10:20 AM

I’ve heard many times about the Demos screaming ‘disenfranchisement’! Now it’s the Repubs. Down here in S. Cal, registered Repubs were suddenly Independents or Non-partisans, (like me), this isn’t just a few voters…
My son registered to vote as a Repub last fall but they didn’t have him on the logs, so he re-registered as a Repub (AND voted for Romney), but the teenage pollworker didn’t give us a clear answer that his vote would be counted, i guess, because he didn’t register on time.
I smell a big fat rat.
get ready to annoint Hilly/Obamarama.

Christine on February 6, 2008 at 10:28 AM

Clarification: I am a non-partisan voter because the Repubs in Congress are mostly RINOS. I voted for the anti-Hillary, BO.

BTW: If Bush is the anti-Christ as my crazy liberal friend said, Hilly is the anti-Mary….and McCain is their pawn.

Christine on February 6, 2008 at 10:33 AM

I enjoyed reading Bryan’s prediction of Kay Bailey Hutchison as a VP for McCain…I thought of that one all on my own last week before reading anything! It brings a gender balance, she’s from a critical state, etc. My other thought was bringing a rock hard, but non-polarizing conservative. My pick: Sam Brownback, who ended up endorsing McCain after his brief presidential campaign.

The VP stuff is fun, but I seriously question it’s impact on an election. After all, George Bush still beat Dukakis in ’88, and had Dan Quayle on his ticket, which didn’t exactly inspire many people.

I, too thought that Wes Clark would be a great pick to go with Hillary. But I never expected Obama to be this strong. So Hillary/Obama if both can stomach it.

asc85 on February 6, 2008 at 10:50 AM

asc85 on February 6, 2008 at 10:50 AM

In a perfect world, Hillary will win the nomination ugly and then pick Bayh or Richardson for Veep and the black voters will finally wake up and realize that the Dems are exploiting them, not representing them. Mac then picks Michael Steeleas VP and we OWN the Presidency for the next 16 years.

I’m not saying this will happen, but, dare to dream!!!

JayHaw Phrenzie on February 6, 2008 at 11:04 AM

I would think McCain’s first priority in picking a VP would be to placate the Evangelics. Hutchison is roughly as RINO as McCain, and there’s no appreciable appeal-to-the-feminists factor at play, as those independents foolish enough to vote for a candidate simply because of her gender would still vote for Hillary anyway (better a gyno-President than a gyno-VP, right?). I just don’t see what Hutchison brings to the table. Right now Huckabee looks like the most obvious choice, assuming he’s willing to play.

Blacklake on February 6, 2008 at 11:17 AM

I think Mitt & Huck should join forces. They would be an awesome force….

THAT would be enough to shake up this race. We simply can not stand for a senator to be pres… We simply can not stand to have John as our nominee.. he must be stopped.

Mit and Mike are both very smart and very articulate. John is so yesterday.

Come on guys, do what is best for THIS COUNTRY !

stenwin77 on February 6, 2008 at 11:19 AM

assuming he’s willing to play.

Blacklake on February 6, 2008 at 11:17 AM

I think that is an understatement!

kcd on February 6, 2008 at 11:28 AM

My .02

I will not stay home in November. I will go and vote to try and help the repubs in Congress.

But, I will never vote for McCain.

tripster on February 6, 2008 at 11:31 AM

Huckabee has been bought by McCain and Johnny is in HER pocket…open your eyes.

No one else is hearing about the 1000s of S. Cal Repubs who were going to vote for Romney but couldn’t because their party affiliation was mysteriously changed? Go to: http://www.760KFMB.com
and get informed.

Christine on February 6, 2008 at 11:31 AM

I think Mitt & Huck should join forces.

I don’t think it will happen, but it might be the best shot Romny has. Romney does well in the nw while huck does best in the south. I don’t like Huckabee but no one has ever won the presidency without the south. Also, those ne votes that went to McCain…lost in Nov to the dims anyway.(compare the winning dim votes in the ne to McCains)

kcd on February 6, 2008 at 11:33 AM

No one else is hearing about the 1000s of S. Cal Repubs who were going to vote for Romney but couldn’t because their party affiliation was mysteriously changed? Go to: http://www.760KFMB.com
and get informed.

Christine on February 6, 2008 at 11:31 AM

He lost in nearly every precinct. Don’t think that would have made a bit of difference, even if true.

Vizzini on February 6, 2008 at 11:42 AM

Phil Gramm would be a likely choice, being born in Georgia but serving in the Senate from Texas

Phil Gramm? the one that makes me wretch when I hear him talk?

TheSitRep on February 6, 2008 at 11:44 AM

If Obama Hillary team up after the primary, we’re screwed no matter who we put up.

- The Cat

MirCat on February 6, 2008 at 11:46 AM

If Obama Hillary team up after the primary, we’re screwed no matter who we put up.

- The Cat

I think you may be right. I think our ONLY hope would be a Mitt & Mike ticket.

stenwin77 on February 6, 2008 at 11:53 AM

I think Hill & Obama will team up and bring the Socialist Revolution to this country. It’s definitely bad news, but maybe that will finally galvanize Republicans for a comeback. Just the thought of having Hillary Clinton as president…I just can’t believe we actually might have that awkward Leftist nerd leading this country. I actually go to Pace University (the school where that little Qu’ran incident happened a while back…) and I have a professor there who I’m taking for a class on terrorism. He is a parole officer for the City of New York and has great stories, and one included about how he knows some secret service guys who worked for Billary in the 1990s who said that Mrs. Clinton regularly referred to them as “trained pigs” and would comment “the pigs are here to keep us safe.” He said Chelsea used this reference also, and Mrs. Clinton in particular had a disdain for secret service agents and even told them to “Get the f**k away from me”. An interesting way to treat someone who is willing to take a bullet for you, my professor said. This woman is a phony and a charlatan.

mattyj86 on February 6, 2008 at 12:50 PM

I think you may be right. I think our ONLY hope would be a Mitt & Mike ticket.

stenwin77 on February 6, 2008 at 11:53 AM

Dude… it’s over. Huckabee isn’t going to align himself with Romney, and it wouldn’t make a difference if he did.

Hollowpoint on February 6, 2008 at 1:10 PM

McCain has decided he doesn’t need conservatives or Southerners to win the election. He essentially said as much last night in that smug victory speech. I’m looking forward to him going down in flames when we don’t shut up and vote for him just because he is a Republican.

The man’s military service is admirable but he’s a traitor to the party and the nation. I would vote for Hillary Clinton before I vote for John McCain because, at least with her, you know what you are getting. John McCain is a backstabbing liar who can’t be trusted- ever.

highhopes on February 6, 2008 at 1:29 PM

Kay Bailey and Brownback are both open borders too. That would do nothing to help McCain. Please Lord don’t let him be that stupid.

funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 1:56 PM

Wow Christine brings the crazy. And shows the folly of having the talk radio folks working so hard to demonize Hillary. They may indeed saddle us with a President Obama.

funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 2:00 PM

It’s hillarious how the all knowing conservative pundits claimed that McCain would never get the conservative republican vote, but when he does, their answer is “well, they’re not really conservative.” Listen, two trains are about to leave the station. You can either pick one and hop on board, or you can stay behind. Depending on which direction we end up taking as a country, we may or may not be back to pick you up. But what you can’t do is try to steer the train while sitting back at the station throwing a temper tantrum.

myamphibian on February 6, 2008 at 2:01 PM

John McCain is a backstabbing liar who can’t be trusted- ever.

highhopes on February 6, 2008 at 1:29 PM

I don’t understand, are you saying you are or are not supporting McCain.

right2bright on February 6, 2008 at 3:38 PM

I don’t understand, are you saying you are or are not supporting McCain.

right2bright on February 6, 2008 at 3:38 PM

LOL!!

kcd on February 6, 2008 at 4:06 PM

I’ll take a stab at the veep pick. How about a southern R gov who supported McCain since the first straw poll of this campaign, who has Rudy’s experience in dealing with disasters, and is familiar with the rigors of national campaigning and fundraising? Who the media speculated on as a potential McCain running mate as long as 18 months ago?

I give you Haley Barbour.

thirtypundit on February 6, 2008 at 9:57 PM

obama – nunn.

hillary – obama.

romney – demint.

mccain – demint.

reliapundit on February 6, 2008 at 11:59 PM

My VP speculation stands–Lindsey Graham.

see-dubya on February 6, 2008 at 2:04 AM

That whiny little bi*ch? I don’t think even McCain could stand listening to that.

Jaibones on February 7, 2008 at 12:41 AM

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