Predictions: Super Ultra Mega Tuesday!
posted at 8:00 am on February 5, 2008 by Allahpundit
Send to a Friend |
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Don’t bother with the Dems. 22 primaries + proportional allocation + bonus delegates for winning the state + superdelegates + fluid polls = too many moving parts to make any coherent guesses, although if you want to torture yourself with delegate math, have at it. At the end of the day they’ll split the pot roughly 50/50; the open questions are (a) who carries California and (b) just how rough is “roughly.” Today was supposed to be the day Hillary broke Obama’s back but after South Carolina and the coveted Chappaquiddick endorsement, the Messiah stands a (very slim) chance of beating her straight up. Conventional wisdom has it that if she doesn’t take the coast and finish with a 200 delegate cushion, the inevitability shield is well and truly shattered and she’s in trouble. In this, our hour of need, conservatives have two options. Either cross over in states where the primaries are open and the conclusion is foregone (ahem) and vote for Hillary, for the love of god. Or cross them fingers and hope that the new most important minority bloc in America delivers. Can they do it? Si se puede!
The GOP numbers are more crunchable. Assuming Maverick cleans up in all the winner-take-all states he’s supposed to win and pulls 33% in the rest, he’s halfway to the nomination with (ballpark) 600 delegates banked by day’s end. Romney needs a moral victory in California and probably an upset somewhere else — ideally Missouri, the one hotly contested WTA state — to have a reason to get out of bed tomorrow morning. Minor problem: He’s actually third there at the moment, around six points behind McCain. If he craters, both he and Huck may fall on their swords — and then cometh the reckoning.
Predictions: The irresistible force of Obamania fails upon contact with the immovable object of Hillary’s wickedly sweet ground game in California. Mitt takes California too, but that’s his only big win and come midnight he’s on the brink. Say it ain’t so, AP! I’m afraid it is, kid.
Figure we’re about nine hours away from any remotely interesting news. Just keep scrolling…
Update: Rasmussen counts heads.
If Tuesday is good to McCain, he will end up with over 700 delegates. That’s not enough to formally wrap up the nomination, but it might be enough to cause the other contenders to throw in the towel.
For Mitt Romney, the bad news is that the winner-take-all states likely to go his way can’t match up in delegate count (Utah has 36 delegates). Going through the same state-by-state exercise shows Romney shows the former Massachusetts Governor ending the day with not more than 350 to 400 delegates.
After Super Tuesday, there are 980 remaining delegates available through primaries and caucuses. Even if you assume that Romney gets to 400 delegates tomorrow, he would need to win roughly two-out-of-every-three remaining delegates to catch the frontrunner. It’s even more difficult if Mike Huckabee stays in the race and earns some of those delegates for himself.
Update: As I say, don’t bother with the Dems. You’ll hurt yourself.
Update: The first polls close at 7 p.m. in Georgia, where the spread is about five points between all three candidates. If Mitt pulls it out, the bellwether buzz will give blog readers something to smile about for, er, an hour.
California votes until 11 p.m ET. Buy some Red Bull this afternoon.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: [1] 2 »
Didn’t Karl Rove (that magnificant bastard) say recently that even after today 45% of the delegates are still in play?
Kahuna on February 5, 2008 at 8:11 AM
The Real exit question for the GOP is:
If Saint John becomes the presumptive favorite after tonight, do the talk radio Poobahs — Rush, Laura, Sean, Levin, Tammy, Hugh, et al, who I all agree with right now by the way — do they keep fighting the inevitable and keep bashing Saint John all the way to defeatsville in November or do some of them reluctantly climb on board and try to wring whatever hollow conservative concessions they can from the Maverick?
Stay tuned.
Always Right on February 5, 2008 at 8:16 AM
It’s going to be a bad day…
Jared_MA on February 5, 2008 at 8:21 AM
Real Clear Politics posted this, it may come in handy tonight:
Super Tuesday Poll Closing Times
Here are the poll-closing times for each state participating in today’s presidential nominating events:
(All times Eastern; all primaries unless otherwise noted; all state events include both parties unless noted)
7:00 p.m.
Georgia
8:00 p.m.
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Missouri
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Tennessee
8:30 p.m.
Arkansas
9:00 p.m.
Arizona
Colorado caucuses
Kansas caucuses (D)
Minnesota caucuses
New Mexico caucuses (D)
New York
10:00 p.m.
Idaho caucuses (D)
Montana caucuses (R)
North Dakota caucuses
Utah
11:00 p.m.
California
1:30 p.m.
Alaska
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 8:21 AM
Today is the day folks. Rush and Hannity have been put in time out by Bob Dole. The SILENT MAJORITY will speak loudly today when they vote The Maverick in as party head. Hopefully Romney will show a sliver of class and drop out after a five hundred delegate blowout!
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 8:22 AM
From a pro-Romney Stragegery viewpoint, he should take a few states like Mass, Utah, hopefully Colo and have a good showing in Calif.
What we could also really use is for Huck to get very few delegates. Let all the non-romney votes go to McCain. That way Huck gets little in the way of bargaining chips for a veep play and has more incentive to bow out altogether — since the main reason he remains in is to stymie Mitt and if that ploy loses potency Huck has no real reason to stay in.
So I am hoping for a weak show by Huck and a hold-that-line result from Mitt.
Always Right on February 5, 2008 at 8:23 AM
Let’s look at the states, I just don’t see the delegates there for Romney in the next four months to stop McCain. Am I wrong?
LA (47 delegates) – already had caucuses and McCain won most of them
WA (40 delegates) – was running heavily for Rudy last year
KS (39 delegates) – maybe
VA (63 winner take all delegates) – was running heavily for Rudy and McCain last year
MD (37 delegates) – had McCain +8 when Rudy was still in the race in Jan
DC (9 delegates winner take all) – no polls found
WI (40 delegates) – was running for Rudy last year
TX (140 delegates) – was running for Rudy and McCain last year
OH (88 delegates) – was running for Rudy last year
RI (20 delegates) – no polls
VT (20 winner take all delegates) – no polls
MS (39 delegates) - no polls
PA (74 delegates) - McCain +16.0 in Jan when Rudy was still in the race
The following states have their primaries or caucuses in May or later, we will assume everything will be decided by then:
NC (69 delegates) – Huck and Thompson country so maybe
IN (57 delegates) – no polls
NA (33 delegates) – no polls
HI (20 delegates) – no polls
KY (45 delegates) – no polls
OR (30 delegates) – no polls
ID (32 delegates) – no polls
NM (32 delegates) – no polls
SD (27 delegates) – no polls
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 8:23 AM
And it’s on! *sits back and grabs the popcorn*
Nineball on February 5, 2008 at 8:27 AM
I think it will be as big day for McCain (I am a Romney fan) the question is where were all the conservative months ago, oh they were bashing Romney. Just look at some of the past posts!
KBird on February 5, 2008 at 8:29 AM
From a pro-Romney Stragegery viewpoint, he should take a few states like Mass, Utah, hopefully Colo and have a good showing in Calif.
Always Right on February 5, 2008 at 8:23 AM
I think he will take CO, MA, UT (big), DE, have the majority of the popular vote in CA, do well in ND, GA & Montana
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 8:31 AM
It’s going to be a drawn-out, tense day.
Gonna’ be a miserable night at work if McCain ends up cleaning house. I will be one depressed individual if such is the scenario…
Until 2012 at the earliest.
Jockolantern on February 5, 2008 at 8:32 AM
Juan McVain could win by a landslide today and Mitt could drop out. McVain still won’t get my vote and will ride of into BOB DOLE history (a la 96′) against Obama or Hillary.
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 8:33 AM
It seems to me you’re confusing GOP and conservative opinions and positions. The conservatives you reference see a McCain nomination as a defeat (and I agree) and while a few may support this aged hero in the fall, many will not.
I count myself among those who will not. I’d much rather see the honest socialist get elected.
Onager on February 5, 2008 at 8:35 AM
Romeny had better show some respect to Mav during his concession speech tonight.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 8:35 AM
Big move for Romney on Intrade (if you like to gamble)
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 8:37 AM
CNN hasn’t projected a winner yet? *sigh*
Prediction: On the Dem side, Obama does very well across the board. On the GOP, McCain cleans up. But I still don’t see Romney dropping out….yet.
btw, how many states will the Paulnuts claim voting fraud in after tonight?
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 8:39 AM
Welp, Kentucky has its primary sometime in, oh, September, so I’m not voting today.
amkun on February 5, 2008 at 8:40 AM
I think it would be a nice gesture if Romeny in defeat made a nice donation to the charity of Johnny Mac’s choice.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 8:40 AM
lol
Onager on February 5, 2008 at 8:41 AM
Did anyone hear about Romney and the fried chicken?Apparently Mitt, when out on the stump, removes the skin and breading from his fried chicken and eats it with a fork. Thankfully Huckmania called him out on it yesterday along with his country club spending on this election. We must speak loud and clear today that this is unacceptable.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 8:43 AM
Intrade also shows Ron Paul with a better chance of getting the nomination then Mike Huckabee. Which is probably the Paulites wasting their money.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 8:43 AM
My only regret is picking on Romney back when McCain didn’t stand a chance. If I only knew.
Here’s hoping divine intervention occurs and leaves the McCain campaign with two black eyes and some missing teeth. I just don’t see how the South could vote for McCain (though we have before).
Prediction: McCain doesn’t do too badly, but he’s severely injured by a Romney upset in some big states. Oh, and Fred Thompson’s people vote for him even after he threw in the towel. On the Democrats’ side, Gravel wonders why everyone ignores him.
emailnuevo on February 5, 2008 at 8:48 AM
Why? Because he’s got so much money? He’s committed the moral sin of being rich and using some of his own cash?
Oh, the horror!
Sounds about right, but I don’t even think he takes CA. He’ll grab some smaller states, and surprise Huckabee in GA, but that’s about it.
Game over as of tomorrow a.m.
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 8:50 AM
U.S. Senator Sam Brownback, Former Governor Frank Keating, Congressman Spencer Bachus, Former Secretary William Ball to Campaign in North Dakota and Montana
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 8:51 AM
I’m with Mitt!
McCain would continue the destruction of this nation.
madmonkphotog on February 5, 2008 at 8:52 AM
Voted for Mitt one minute after the polls opened here in OK. If McCain gets the nomination I’ll stay home come November. I don’t vote for Democrats!
Buzzy on February 5, 2008 at 8:59 AM
ROMLEE can have California. Yeah woooo I won 58 to your 56 delegates! NY, NJ, Conn, Missouri,AZ, winner take all. Buh Buy Mitchell.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 9:01 AM
Don’t worry about who is likely to win, just go out and vote and vote for the one you like best.
Hendo on February 5, 2008 at 9:01 AM
Well, I voted for Mitt in the MA primary. Now I just hope he can pull something off.
BKennedy on February 5, 2008 at 9:01 AM
Buzzy on February 5, 2008 at 8:59 AM
Why get up so early to cast a losing vote?
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 9:02 AM
Why go vote in November if the POLLS say Hillary is going to win (which they will.)
Why vote at all if it isn’t for THE CHOSEN ONE’s candidate?
This is far from over.
BKennedy on February 5, 2008 at 9:03 AM
I second that. I’m voting for Mitt in Mass when I get out of work.
Geronimo on February 5, 2008 at 9:04 AM
Nation before party. Vote the issues.
a capella on February 5, 2008 at 9:04 AM
I’m so bored with the USA. But what can I do?
saint kansas on February 5, 2008 at 9:05 AM
Mitt is working the West Virginia crowd this morning. I’
m sure those blue collar hillfolk have a lot in common with Mitt. please
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 9:06 AM
The Obama campaign sure looks a lot like the McGovern campaign.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 9:07 AM
Well, Bob Dole doesn’t vote for democrats either…
McCain has a conservative voting record on par with Helms, mister conservative.
Has he faltered on the immigration issue, yes, Bush tax cuts, yes, but everywhere else (according to his record) he is a conservative, and at least much more conservative then Obama.
I do trust Bob Dole more then Sean Hannity or Ann Coulter.
You stick with Sean, I’ll stick with Bob…
right2bright on February 5, 2008 at 9:09 AM
Voting for McCain today in Ga, hopefully he wins and holds off Huckabee and Romney, which will bode well for him in the south.
McCain 08
Resistance is futile.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 9:10 AM
Me thinks McCain will do enough to minimize Romney to the point that he cannot continue. Since the president is the leader of his party, can you imagine the polarization with conservatives fighting his liberalism at every turn for the next 4 years?
And if that happens, and after McCain drags us towards liberalism, Mike Huckabee will be forever known as the vile disgusting religious bigot who PURPOSELY gave the nomination to McCain.
csdeven on February 5, 2008 at 9:12 AM
I always meant to ask you but keep forgetting. What’s up with that pouch in the side of your cheek. Is it for birdseed or something to get some energy during the debates?
A-Rod used to stuff his mouth like that with sunflower seeds during his bad season two years ago. But hasn’t seemed to hurt you that much. Odd.
JiangxiDad on February 5, 2008 at 9:13 AM
As will victory for McCain likely be in Nov. Enjoy it now.
JiangxiDad on February 5, 2008 at 9:14 AM
I wouldn’t count Mass. for Romney just yet either…McCain beat Bush there in 2000 by a decent margin. And only 15% of Mass. voters are registered GOP, so turnout will be a major factor.
Don’t many GOP faithful in Massachusetts believe that Romney, in some way, abandoned them?
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 9:15 AM
Stick around. The way things look, you won’t recognize it in four years. Then it won’t be boring.
a capella on February 5, 2008 at 9:15 AM
Romney is 22 points ahead in MA. 32 in some polls. If McCain had any shot at winning MA, he’d have spent more than a cursory visit there.
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 9:16 AM
Good article in the Weekly Standard.
Big S on February 5, 2008 at 9:17 AM
Acorns.
a capella on February 5, 2008 at 9:17 AM
“those blue collar hillfolk have a lot in common with MItt. Please..THE CHOSEN ONE at 9;06
Finally the Chosen One has said something resembling intelligent life. If the “hillfolk” are poor and illiterate, they have to be dimocrats. We know how much the dimocrats love their subjects.
volsense on February 5, 2008 at 9:17 AM
Learn something now. McCain’s flirtation with liberalism is a sign of low intelligence. He is quite accomplished in so many areas, however I bet you didn’t realize that he is sorta dumb. That is why he doesn’t get stuff like economics. I have a pugnacious bulldog for a pet. But he isn’t smart either. Don’t blame McCain. He truly can’t help it.
JiangxiDad on February 5, 2008 at 9:17 AM
Hang on. I’m in New Jersey. I’m confused though. Vote for Hillary, why? I’d rather it be Obama vrs McCain personally so I’m missing your point I think.
Obama people came to my house the other day by the way. Three women ironically. They have their ground game out here obviously and I would guess they think they have a shot at it.
Dash on February 5, 2008 at 9:18 AM
Thank you. Stupid of me not to have recognized that right away. Also explains the affinity the Huckster has for McCain.
Might I also say, avant le deluge, how much I enjoy your comments.
JiangxiDad on February 5, 2008 at 9:19 AM
That was an interesting article. Conservatives are angry, and looking for a way to vent that anger. The problem that I have with McCain is that he doesn’t seem to regard conservative anger as genuine or justified. I don’t think he really gets it, and that’s going to make it very tough for him to mollify those who have substantive disagreements with much of what he’s done while in office.
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 9:20 AM
If, in the unlikely event McCain wins the general, he’ll be a lame duck from day 1. I doubt his temper will allow much rejection or lack of support without spectacular fireworks. Good times ahead.
a capella on February 5, 2008 at 9:21 AM
Any article that names Phil Gramm as a “conservative”…well…having been in the military when Gramm-Rudman(sp?) came along and started the gutting that Clinton finished…
The last thing we were calling him was “conservative”
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 9:23 AM
While we’re on the Weekly Standard binge, some wisdom from “Richelieu”
Big S on February 5, 2008 at 9:23 AM
Yes, the hillfolk are like John McCain who dumped his first wife who waited for him all the time he was in ‘Nam for a pretty young billionaire’s daughter, after that wife got into a car accident.
Meanwhile Mitt is pretty much the ultimate portrayal of American values. Mitt was born rich and like so many celebrities and trust fund ninnies he could have never worked a day in his life and squandered his fortune on trivial matters. Instead he worked hard for his religion and then worked hard in the private sector, saving the jobs and helping create jobs for thousands, if not millions of people through his efforts at Bain & Company.
The closest John McCain has ever come to creating jobs is hiring a new staff member to write up his liberal legislation.
BKennedy on February 5, 2008 at 9:25 AM
Fixed.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 9:26 AM
Can we get the Pope to put a curse against McCain into the Latin Prayers now that he took the “Anti-Semetic” one out?
Tim Burton on February 5, 2008 at 9:26 AM
Just got finished votimg here in DE.
Mitt.
davidk on February 5, 2008 at 9:27 AM
I didn’t realize Mitt was that far ahead in the Mass polls…
I know it’s only one piece, but THIS ARTICLE made me think…
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 9:27 AM
Of course he doesn’t get it. He’s been a career politician for decades on a national stage, yet we still don’t know what’s the core social/political philosophy that motivates his actions.
Ask him about global warming, and he has nothing to say other than he has hooked up with Joe Lieberman on caps and trade. That’s an example of a position to him, associating himself with some plan/person in Congress who looks to him like they know wtf they’re saying.
He may be able to take the lead in defense related issues, but he’s a follower in most others, imho.
That makes him susceptible to liberalism, because he goes with the consensus so as to look informed.
When he tells you that Phil Graham, for example,supports him, he is telling himself that he must know wtf he is doing if somebody else is saying he’s right.
JiangxiDad on February 5, 2008 at 9:30 AM
CA Poll: Clinton Up 10, Republicans Tied
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 9:31 AM
Or what? The Chosen One is going to blast him in the comment section at Hot Air?
Why?
Oh my God! You’re telling me the man actually takes the skin off of the chicken and chooses to use a utensil! Well, then, I’ll need to reconsider my support.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 9:32 AM
McCain’s plane got shot down once.
That makes him a “hero”.
Let’s hope he becomes another hero today.
And his candidacy’s wings get clipped today.
No to McCain-Kennedy.
No to McCain-Feingold.
No to McCain-Lieberman.
No to McCain.
profitsbeard on February 5, 2008 at 9:32 AM
New Feb. 5 Polls
Here are the latest from Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby:
New Jersey
Republicans (Feb. 2-4)
McCain 53
Romney 24
Huckabee 5
Paul 4
Democrats (Feb. 2-4)
Clinton 46
Obama 41
McCain leads by 26.2 points and Clinton leads by 7.7 in the RCP Average for New Jersey
New York Republicans (Feb. 3-4)
McCain 56
Romney 20
Huckabee 7
Paul 2
McCain holds a 31.4-point lead in the RCP Average for New York
Georgia Democrats (Feb. 2-4)
Obama 49
Clinton 29
Obama holds an 18.0-point lead in the RCP Average for Georgia
Missouri
Republicans (Feb. 2-4)
McCain 34
Huckabee 27
Romney 25
Paul 4
Democrats (Feb. 2-4)
Obama 45
Clinton 42
McCain leads by 5.5 points and Clinton leads by 5.7 in the RCP Average for Missouri
California
Republicans (Feb. 3-4)
Romney 40
McCain 33
Huckabee 12
Paul 3
Democrats (Feb. 3-4)
Obama 49
Clinton 36
McCain leads by 0.3 and Obama leads by 1.2 in the RCP Average for California
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/02/new_feb_5_polls_1.html
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 9:32 AM
All the talk of rally around Mr. McPander for the good of the party, Bob Dole leaking emails to Rush via McCain and all…..hmmmm.
So tell me, what did McCain do when the shoe was on the other foot??????????
Starlink on February 5, 2008 at 9:33 AM
So Switchback Brownback is support McCain, huh? There’s a shocker.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 9:33 AM
McCain = Dole = ZERO
volsense on February 5, 2008 at 9:34 AM
Ditto!
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 9:36 AM
BREAKING NEWS SLIGHTLY OFF TOPIC:
OBAMA WINS INDONESIA!
Brat on February 5, 2008 at 9:36 AM
As a fellow McCain supporter, can you please shut up you are being obnoxious. Rush, Laura, and Hannity will still be relevant if McCain wins. Though I may disagree with them on McCain I will still listen to them and they will still have influence on a good part of the republican party for a long time.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 9:37 AM
Well folks, I guess I’ll check in with you later. I cast my vote for Romney here in southern AZ at 6:00 and put up signs in the early dark near my polling place. Even though it is unusually cold here this morning (29 degrees) local radio is reporting people waiting 25 min. at some locations to cast their vote.
It would be so sweet to see McCain defeated here in AZ but I would be quite happy to see him denied a clear majority in his home state.
Go Mitt!
Deety on February 5, 2008 at 9:37 AM
THE CHOSEN ONE,
“Rush and Hannity have been put in time out by Bob Dole. ”
Oh yes, what a stellar candidate Bob Dole was, wasn’t he.
Just remember, it was Dole’s turn just like McCains turn this time, right.
McCain ‘08==Dole ‘96
And we will get the same results!
belad on February 5, 2008 at 9:40 AM
McCain is doomed in the general, the Clintons and the lib media has been rope-a-doping him. As much as they claim to like him now they will destroy him after he gets the nomination which I hope he does not! Go Mitt!
echosyst on February 5, 2008 at 9:40 AM
My pessimism hasn’t failed me yet. While I won’t make a specific prediction, my fears of McCain waking up inevitable or nearly so tomorrow morning will probably come to pass.
Hope to God I’m wrong.
thirteen28 on February 5, 2008 at 9:40 AM
My wife and I just made our two votes for Romney in NJ. Here’s hoping for a miracle. If it ends up being McCain v. Hillary, I’ll vote McCain for the sake of the country. If it ends up being McCain v. Obama, I look forward to sitting on my hands all day long in November.
We thought about the idea of crossing over and voting against the she-devil with Obama all the way until last night. We decided, though, that we couldn’t do it. The McCain threat is too great.
flutejpl on February 5, 2008 at 9:43 AM
Not according to all the major national match-up polls…they show McCain beating Hillary, and Obama, almost every time.
But when Romney is put up against the Dems, he loses the general most of the time.
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 9:44 AM
The article is a bit too hopefully written, I think.
Here’s the paragraph that stood out to me:
Swifty was enormously unpopular in MA and would have lost the gubernatorial race in 2002. Even conservative talk show hosts like Howie Carr were critical of her use of the state helicopter for personal reasons. Her endorsement might actually hurt McCain. :-)
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 9:45 AM
and two months ago the polls still had Rudy beating everyone…
so much for the polls…
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 9:46 AM
Those would be the same head-to-head polls that showed Reagan getting steamrolled by Carter and coming in very close with Mondale.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 9:46 AM
He and his fellow McCain staff workers have set the perceived behavioral standard for McCain supporters here, just because of noise. Good luck getting them to change.
a capella on February 5, 2008 at 9:49 AM
Don’t you think some of that is because he hasn’t yet felt the conservative voter outrage which will work to the Dem advantage? It’ll show up in the general, as sure as i’m standing here.
a capella on February 5, 2008 at 9:52 AM
The head to head polls never showed Romney beating everyone. In fact, he has consistantly polled as one of the weaker general election candidates.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 9:54 AM
I’M WITH MITT!
madmonkphotog on February 5, 2008 at 9:56 AM
McCain hasn’t been up against head to head with Clinton or Obama yet. American’s like the superficial and feeling good… McVain just does not compare, no matter how conservative he “claims” to be, and he just doesn’t have what it takes to convince a majority of American’s to come out for him (especially not conservatives).
Can you say Dole II?
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 9:56 AM
Even coming out of the conventions Reagan was expected to lose according to those polls.
amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 9:57 AM
Didn’t we decide THE CHOSEN ONE is a troll unworthy of response? Just asking.
That made my morning.
emailnuevo on February 5, 2008 at 9:58 AM
ok, your point is what? I said Rudy, polls had Rudy up for over a year…
where is Rudy now?
Rudy who?
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 9:58 AM
Ah, but Rudy wasn’t winning in the head to heads against the Democrats either.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 9:59 AM
So wendeth the Republican Party. Rest in peace.
fourstringfuror on February 5, 2008 at 10:00 AM
Yes, there was a time he was winning head to head.
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 10:00 AM
Bottom line…
McCain = Dole Part Deu
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 10:01 AM
Here’s my prediction: Based on the 4 candidates left in the race, America has a 75% chance of going straight to hell in a handbasket.
Texas Rainmaker on February 5, 2008 at 10:03 AM
Long ago, mi amigo. Long ago.
fourstringfuror on February 5, 2008 at 10:03 AM
Not that I know of.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 10:03 AM
There was a time when Giuliani was winning head to heads against Clinton. It made up a large basis of his early campaigning - the only guy who can beat Hillary.
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 10:04 AM
I coined Dole 2: Electoral Bugaboo™ in another thread but forgot to trademark it. Don’t tell the writers’ guild.
saint kansas on February 5, 2008 at 10:06 AM
Some of you may be familiar with conservative talk show host Ben Ferguson, who has a national show on Sunday nights. He also has a morning show in Memphis. Today he led off his show by announcing he is voting for Huckabee because he is the only one who can stop McCain in Tennessee. He also said he prefers Romney, but his chief objective is preventing McCain from getting Tennessee’s delegates.
flyfisher on February 5, 2008 at 10:06 AM
Interesting article at WorldNetDaily about how the Clintons might take down McCain.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on February 5, 2008 at 10:07 AM
I don’t understand…if McCain keeps winning primaries, how is “conservative voter outrage” going to work to the Dem’s advantage come the general election?
I really, really wish I more fully understood why so many conservatives, as very apparent here on HA, have such vitriolic hate…and hate is exactly what is seems like…towards John McCain. I’m as conservative as anyone here…and after Fred dropped out, I saw McCain as the next obvious choice.
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 10:08 AM
Comment pages: [1] 2 »