Predictions: Super Ultra Mega Tuesday!
posted at 8:00 am on February 5, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Don’t bother with the Dems. 22 primaries + proportional allocation + bonus delegates for winning the state + superdelegates + fluid polls = too many moving parts to make any coherent guesses, although if you want to torture yourself with delegate math, have at it. At the end of the day they’ll split the pot roughly 50/50; the open questions are (a) who carries California and (b) just how rough is “roughly.” Today was supposed to be the day Hillary broke Obama’s back but after South Carolina and the coveted Chappaquiddick endorsement, the Messiah stands a (very slim) chance of beating her straight up. Conventional wisdom has it that if she doesn’t take the coast and finish with a 200 delegate cushion, the inevitability shield is well and truly shattered and she’s in trouble. In this, our hour of need, conservatives have two options. Either cross over in states where the primaries are open and the conclusion is foregone (ahem) and vote for Hillary, for the love of god. Or cross them fingers and hope that the new most important minority bloc in America delivers. Can they do it? Si se puede!
The GOP numbers are more crunchable. Assuming Maverick cleans up in all the winner-take-all states he’s supposed to win and pulls 33% in the rest, he’s halfway to the nomination with (ballpark) 600 delegates banked by day’s end. Romney needs a moral victory in California and probably an upset somewhere else — ideally Missouri, the one hotly contested WTA state — to have a reason to get out of bed tomorrow morning. Minor problem: He’s actually third there at the moment, around six points behind McCain. If he craters, both he and Huck may fall on their swords — and then cometh the reckoning.
Predictions: The irresistible force of Obamania fails upon contact with the immovable object of Hillary’s wickedly sweet ground game in California. Mitt takes California too, but that’s his only big win and come midnight he’s on the brink. Say it ain’t so, AP! I’m afraid it is, kid.
Figure we’re about nine hours away from any remotely interesting news. Just keep scrolling…
Update: Rasmussen counts heads.
If Tuesday is good to McCain, he will end up with over 700 delegates. That’s not enough to formally wrap up the nomination, but it might be enough to cause the other contenders to throw in the towel.
For Mitt Romney, the bad news is that the winner-take-all states likely to go his way can’t match up in delegate count (Utah has 36 delegates). Going through the same state-by-state exercise shows Romney shows the former Massachusetts Governor ending the day with not more than 350 to 400 delegates.
After Super Tuesday, there are 980 remaining delegates available through primaries and caucuses. Even if you assume that Romney gets to 400 delegates tomorrow, he would need to win roughly two-out-of-every-three remaining delegates to catch the frontrunner. It’s even more difficult if Mike Huckabee stays in the race and earns some of those delegates for himself.
Update: As I say, don’t bother with the Dems. You’ll hurt yourself.
Update: The first polls close at 7 p.m. in Georgia, where the spread is about five points between all three candidates. If Mitt pulls it out, the bellwether buzz will give blog readers something to smile about for, er, an hour.
California votes until 11 p.m ET. Buy some Red Bull this afternoon.
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That’s pretty disappointing. Governor Keating, of all people, ought to know better than to stump for someone so transparently weak on immigration.
fourstringfuror on February 5, 2008 at 10:09 AM
The State of Pennsylvania has decided my vote in the primaries will carry no weight whatsoever in the nominating process.
Pennsylvania Primary Date: April 22nd
fogw on February 5, 2008 at 10:14 AM
McCain has lied, does lie, and will lie to our faces. He promised to seal the border, and then hires Juan Hernandez to his staff. He promises to appoint strict constructionist judges, but sponsored McCain-Feingold. He promises to veto any tax increases that came across his desk, but voted against the Bush tax cuts. He falsely accuses Romney of having a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, yet had timelines of his own. He claims to be a Reagan conservative, but flirted with the idea of switching parties and running on a Kerry/McCain ticket in 2004.
McCain is running for president, not prom queen. He doesn’t deserve to be coddled or worshipped. He doesn’t deserve respect, either; he has to earn it.
fourstringfuror on February 5, 2008 at 10:18 AM
I hear ya. The one thing this long drawn out primary cycle has done is made me wish the candidates all just campaigned, we had one vote, election day. None of this psychological games the media and the candidates play with polls, and pandering to “groups” of people (saying one thing one day to one group, and something different the next day).
America, moving closer and closer to mob rule every day.
TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 10:20 AM
My only prediction is that we will be surprised tonight.
terryannonline on February 5, 2008 at 10:20 AM
Why? You really want me to start up again on Multiple Choice Mitt?
Hollowpoint on February 5, 2008 at 10:23 AM
Keating…Keating…
Gosh, that names rings a bell with me. Something to do with a lot of corruption from some members of Congress or something, maybe?
Oh well, can’t be that important. If it were, someone would have mentioned it, right?
Jimmie on February 5, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Why do conservatives hate McCain?
Simple. McCain’s betrayed conservatives too many times. It’s one thing to go down in defeat to your enemy. Win or lose against Hillary, at least you know she’s against you.
But McCain is Hillary except on our side. He is GLAD to stab conservatives in the back. He relishes the idea of selling out the Republican party ideals. He hates us, why shouldn’t we return the favor?
Vanceone on February 5, 2008 at 10:27 AM
Bwahahahaha!!!
Tell that to Rudy, Huck, and Thompson. They all led national polls.
Only those with nothing left to add run to national polls to support their candidate.
McCain will lose because he is a liar. He’s got health problems, he’s too old, and too entrenched. Obama is the candidate of change and McCain is the quintessential Washington insider. McCain will lose. Guaranteed.
csdeven on February 5, 2008 at 10:30 AM
My prediction for today: PAIN.
Pain, then denial as Romney supporters latch onto some arguement justifying hope that he could still win.
For the rest of us: Confusion. Shame and confusion as to how McCain could’ve come from near death to win while the only three conservatives who ran (Thompson, Hunter, Tancredo) failed so miserably.
Hollowpoint on February 5, 2008 at 10:34 AM
The outrage will be manifested one of two ways. Passively,..they sit on their hands, or actively,..they vote for a known evil vs one of their own who is untrustworthy, and has given them the back of his hand. That paradigm is not being seen in the primaries. Add to that, the reluctance to donate to the GOP and to furnish a volunteer workforce, plus stacking job performance polls against him, if he does get elected. I’m a bit amazed that many people don’t recognize or acknowlege the depth or potential for damage of this.
a capella on February 5, 2008 at 10:35 AM
What does his decision to stay in or not have to do with “class”, something Mitt has in spades?
No thanks.
*********
Allah (or anyone who knows the answer)-
Why do some of these states not hold their primaries until May and June? What is the point of that?
Buy Danish on February 5, 2008 at 10:35 AM
I was suppose to be close in FL and McCain won by 5. I say McCain takes CA and dominates. Mitt puts his checkbook away tomorrow morning.
tommylotto on February 5, 2008 at 10:36 AM
I’ll go one step further. McCain’s 20+ year experience has earned us what again? (crickets chirping)
Yea, that will be brought up and spun on him like he’s a part of the problem in Washington (which he is) and that a fresh junior Senator or a lady Senator somehow aren’t a part of that bureaucracy.
To answer JetBoy’s question about McCain vitrol - you really need to come down to AZ where you can feel the love… it will explain a lot.
SkinnerVic on February 5, 2008 at 10:40 AM
And then he and his supporters can stop helping the Dems by defaming and pouring slime on our nominee.
JayHaw Phrenzie on February 5, 2008 at 10:42 AM
Stop projecting what you Fredheads were doing all fall and winter.
I’ve straightened you out on this once and I’ll do it again.
Mitt supporters are not you Fredhead supporters. We are not in denial and we know exactly what is at stake and what Romney’s chances are.
You Fredheads were squealing up until the very second that he withdrew, that he was gonna pull it out. I had been telling you he would fail since last summer and he never got any better the minute he announced. It was clear since mid Novemeber that he was never going to get the nomination, but you Fredheads made all kinds of asinine promises.
The proof is in the topic threads on HA. You guys were so entrenched in denial that Allah made a living of poking you guys with a stick. He doesn’t do that to the Mitt supporters because we don’t have our heads up our asses like you Fredheads did.
csdeven on February 5, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Yeah, I think you’re right.
BTW, who are you supporting now that Rudy is out?
csdeven on February 5, 2008 at 10:44 AM
I’ll be sure to remember that tomorrow when the Romniacs are still clinging to hope and suggesting that he can still win in spite of the obvious.
Hollowpoint on February 5, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Nah. If he doesn’t do really well today, he’s toast.
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 10:52 AM
Actually, the only one’s seemingly “entrenched in denial” are the Mitt-wits.
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 10:53 AM
To be defamation it has to be false.
Just FYI.
Lehosh on February 5, 2008 at 10:55 AM
Ha- so says the sane and rational guy.
Hollowpoint on February 5, 2008 at 10:59 AM
Heh. I figure why invest too much emotional energy into politics or politicians?
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 11:02 AM
I bet if Mitt wins Cali by a decimal point, he’ll probably have some multi million dollar celebration party at three o’clock in the morning while America sleeps.
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 11:14 AM
Good one! /high five
Because Mitt is is rich fat cat!!
Lehosh on February 5, 2008 at 11:15 AM
Eleven Hours, Fourty-One Minutes, thirty-eight seconds: COUNTDOWN TO MODERATION
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Prediction: Romney wins big when true conservatives have opportunity to vote. Only a handful of primary/caucus do not an election make.
McCain will win some states, but I believe Romney will win more than anyone expects. And will carry the day, become the nominee.
Those of you casting aspersions on Romney’s chances-look at the delegate count, and ask yourselves what a difference Florida makes-I don’t bother with ‘ifs and could haves’-but look at the count and see that Romney is doing fine.
This is a great day in America-caucus/vote your little hearts out!
Doug on February 5, 2008 at 11:21 AM
Greetings from Jamaica!
Feeling irie about not being glued to the TV, internet, etc. today.
Me check bat wit you lateh.
Go Mitt! Go Hillary! No problem, mon… :)
CliffHanger on February 5, 2008 at 11:24 AM
I just cast my ballot for Mitt Romney in Georgia.
Ususally when I go it is myself and a half dozen gray haired white folks.
Today, it was me and about 30 youngish African Americans, and a half dozen gray haired white folks.
EJDolbow on February 5, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Giants 17- Pats 14.
McCain- 622.
Mitt- 439.
Still an open game.
profitsbeard on February 5, 2008 at 11:27 AM
This is the Internet, where all opinions- be it preferred Presidential nominees or Horde vs Alliance- must be passionately and vigorously defended to the point of obsession and sometimes threats of bodily harm.
The caterwauling of the “candidate X will destroy the country” commenters aside, very few of us will see our lives significantly impacted no matter who wins or loses. I have no preference between McCain and Romney, because I view them both as equally weak on conservative causes.
That said- brokered convention! GO FRED!!! He can still win!!! Fred is the ONLY man who can save America, Earth and the Universe!!!
Hollowpoint on February 5, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Hollowpoint-
Fred-Tancredo 2008 in a brokered convention upset!
profitsbeard on February 5, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Agreed. If Mitt does well in CA, he could stay alive and give the radio pundits a chance to convince others to vote for him.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 11:33 AM
my only prediction is that Juan McLiar will lie at least three times today about Mitt .
Im going to drop off my ballot right after class {another vote for Mitt in the golden state } and if i was a dem i would vote 4 more times.
Mojack420 on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Whoops. I will do my best to abide by the rules from this point on.
Fascist.
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 AM
THE CHOSEN ONE on February 5, 2008 at 11:19 AM
That’s an understatement if I ever heard one, at least if your talking for McAmnisty.
Shillery and Obama feel the fever, McAmnisty can’t even feel his feet. Moderation indeed. Go Mitt!
leanright on February 5, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Crypto-fascist!
billy on February 5, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Ok going to vote now. I think conservatives still have a voice here. It also looks like Romney’s up in my little state CALIFORNIA. Now I have been dissapointed before so if “Stockholm” McSyndrome pulls it off you will see me back here pissed off and ready to vote for hillary.
HotAirExpert on February 5, 2008 at 11:51 AM
More Hypocracy from the Shuckster…he lost his fat ass by removing the skin from the chicken. I can’t wait until this boil on the butt of the GOP is removed from the election process
ihasurnominashun on February 5, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I’m afraid the GOP doesn’t deserve that ticket anymore. :(
ihasurnominashun on February 5, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Correction, that should be “countdown to socialism.” No, I’m not calling McCain a socialist. I’m calling Hillary and Obama socialists. If McCain is our nominee he is, no doubt, going to get trounced in the general. In other words, a vote for McCain in the primary is ipso facto a vote for the Dem candidate in the general. All thanks to you and your “moderate” ilk Chosen One.
Zetterson on February 5, 2008 at 11:55 AM
Expect exit polls after 5pm EST
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 12:09 PM
So very, very true.
McCain nomination = biggest landslide in over 25 years.
Not that I don’t think the Republican party deserves it, at this point.
ChrisM on February 5, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Ha ha. Seriously though, your intellectual honesty is much appreciated in a sea of OMG!!!11!!!eleventy!!!
I suppose anything could happen- a big Romney upset in CA, MO and perhaps another state might buy him a little life, but realistically I’d have to think that after McCain wins the majority of states today that he’ll have enough momentum to lock it up.
I’m still waiting for a post-mortem explaining how McCain went from near death to winning- I don’t buy into simplistic excuses such as media influence, even if they helped a bit.
The only thing that makes sense is that Rudy- who also ran as a security conservative- committed suicide with a horrible campaign strategy and refusal to back down from his pro-choice stance, resulting in McCain picking up the pieces. Sure, he had Huckster to run interference for him, but I’m not sure how many of his supporters would’ve voted for a Mormon anyways- unfair as that is.
Hollowpoint on February 5, 2008 at 12:22 PM
You think YOU GUYS are the financial and volunteer base of the Republican Party? I LOL at you. You couldn’t push Fred’s Red Truck even into Ron Paul territory, and you’ve spent more of your time demonizing and condescending toward the real trench soldiers and their favorite candidate - the evangelicals and Huck - than you have boosting your latest last conservative hope. Great vision of the future for ideological conservatives: “Stacking job performance polls.” Maybe extremism in the defense of liberty really is a vice - at any rate, some people seem to be getting pretty darn high off it.
CK MacLeod on February 5, 2008 at 12:33 PM
The only thing I am convinced about in this primary season is this. If “none of the above” was on the ballot for either party he would end up today with the highest delegate count.
duff65 on February 5, 2008 at 12:39 PM
Mitt wins WV!
ConservativePartyNow on February 5, 2008 at 12:39 PM
If the delegate spread stays under 200, Mitt is still alive. Even better, keep McCain under 600 and Mitt over 400. GA, MO and CA all seem like must wins for Mitt. If he comes out of this thing within striking distance, then it will be a state by state battle the rest of the way. What fun.
Honestly, I’ve made my peace with a McCain nomination if that’s what it comes to, but I’d like to be pleasantly surprised for once this season, considering Mitt’s my 3rd choice this at this point.
Dudley Smith on February 5, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Was he supposed to?
Zetterson on February 5, 2008 at 12:49 PM
You’re projecting again. YOU were the people who thought Fred was still viable after not winning one single contest.
You wont see it. What you will see is discussion if we should vote McCain or stay home.
csdeven on February 5, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Yeah- that’s why I was saying well before SC that Fred would be finished if he didn’t win or get a near tie for first there, and flatly stated that he was finished before the final votes were even tallied.
Hollowpoint on February 5, 2008 at 1:08 PM
I voted for Hillary.
I’m registered Decline-to-State in California - and as the Republican primary was not “open” today, and the Democratic one was - I chose the Democratic ballot and voted for the more beatable one.
jsingood on February 5, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Not yet. See:
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/02/05/paul-eliminated-wva-gop-convention-voting-ends-without-winner/
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 1:16 PM
He is projected to
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 1:17 PM
The Republican party treats Conservatives the way the Democrat party treats Blacks. That is, both take them for granted because they figure they have no place else to go. And so, of course, both parties pi$$ on the heads of those groups.
Probably the only way this can be broken is if a true 3rd party, with Conservative principles and a Black face, were to be built. (That is actually crazy enough to work BTW.)
SunSword on February 5, 2008 at 1:17 PM
My prediction of the headlines if Shillery and McAmnesty win the day.
DEMS, CLINTON GO SUPER NOVA ON SUPER TUESDAY!
GOP, McCAIN RESPOND WITH SPUTTERING ROAD FLARE!
leanright on February 5, 2008 at 1:20 PM
Found this online
William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 1:21 PM
If McCain is our nominee he is, no doubt, going to get trounced in the general. In other words, a vote for McCain in the primary is ipso facto a vote for the Dem candidate in the general. All thanks to you and your “moderate” ilk Chosen One.
Zetterson on February 5, 2008 at 11:55 AM
I know logic has long since been abandoned by the Mac haters, but I can’t resist pointing out the lack of any empirical basis to this claim.
In a general, the candidates are competing for independents and moderate voters, who are sitting between both parties, not for a rump of hardliners.
Latest figures:
McCain 46 Clinton 44 McCain wins +2
McCain 44 Obama 45 Obama wins +1
Romney 40 Clinton 51 Clinton wins +11
Romney 37 Obama 52 Obama wins +15
Don’t know who the hell you are kidding, but it sure looks as if Romney is an ipso facto Democrat vote to me.
Pax americana on February 5, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Today’s WV convention will determine 18 of West Virginia’s 30 national convention delegates.
They have reconvened and will vote again. This time a winner will probably emerge.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 1:38 PM
OK someone in germant has a sense of humor. Is some political cartoon floats I found on AL Jazeera
Hair of the dog that bite Hillary
William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 1:40 PM
OOPS: The board of elections failed to deliver voting equipment to polling places ALL OVER LOS ANGELES… Developing…
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Mitt wins Utah
Mitt wins COL
Mitt wins MASS
Mitt wins MONT
Mitt wins CALIF
Mitt wins GEORGIA
CABE on February 5, 2008 at 1:49 PM
According to an ex-pat in southeast Asia, they adore Hussein Obama…
Connie on February 5, 2008 at 1:54 PM
…
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Dammit, how are all those Democrats going to find time to vote more than once if they can’t get an early start?
leanright on February 5, 2008 at 1:55 PM
Macmentum is building, after today, even the most reticent Mithead should see the handwriting on the wall.
Go Mac go!!!
JayHaw Phrenzie on February 5, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Huck could win WV
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:00 PM
I’m curious. Why is McCain leading by so much in Arizona if they hate him so much?
BacaDog on February 5, 2008 at 2:00 PM
You sicken me and true conservatives everywhere. Big Mac defiled the Constitution. Voting for him is not an act of patriotism…it is an act of stupidity.
CABE on February 5, 2008 at 2:01 PM
Because we don’t. He gets reelected by very high majorities.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:02 PM
And the polls reflect that sentiment. I just found it curious that the vitrol for McCain didn’t manifest itself in the vote count in Arizona.
BacaDog on February 5, 2008 at 2:06 PM
They are voting now in WV. Huck is leading.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:07 PM
McCain’s people in WV are going with Huckabee, to try to give him the win in the second round.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:10 PM
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:10 PM
That is what we have all learned to hate about McA$$hole and his people.
He has earned every derogatory remark written about him.
I will never ever vote for that POS.
leanright on February 5, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Relax. So are the Ron Paul people. This is how a convention works.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Four sets of religious leaders got together today. Each group consists of 7 persons performing ancient and exacting rituals related to political influence on Candidates the following rites are being performed:
John McCain - “The Lonesome Wraiths Evocation of the Knife of Chaos”
Mitt Romney - “Summoning of the Horrific Hosts of Heavenly Helps”
Mike Huckabee - “Transfiguration of the One-Hundred Hateful Saviors of Visions” (By The Omnipresence of Wil’iuno, BTOW similar to PBUH)…not to be confused with the “Wicked Goddesses’Ritual of Consuming Snares”
Ron Paul - “Demonic Entities Invocation of the Storms of Insanity and Absurdity”
RedLizard64 on February 5, 2008 at 2:19 PM
HUCKABEE WINS WV’s 18 delegates
CNN has the results, with 100% precincts reporting:
Huckabee 567 (52%)
Romney 521 (47%)
McCain 12 (1%)
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Huckabee only running to be McCain’s VP. Wow this country’s primary system is f***ed up.
CABE on February 5, 2008 at 2:26 PM
In CA… I went with Mitt. But if McCain wins and is on the ticket in November, I’ll go with McCain.
If you don’t go with McCain in November, it’s a stealth vote for Hillary.
muckdog on February 5, 2008 at 2:27 PM
So why do you bag on people who try and retain hope despite over-whelming odds…isn’t that the kind of people you want on your side when the chips are down and it really counts…by the way what happens if Mitt asks Fred to be his running mate?
RedLizard64 on February 5, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Romney spent a lot of money in WV too. He’s had an operation there since 2006.
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Well, at least we got rid of Huckaee.
He crawled up McA$$holes a$$ so far he will never get out.
leanright on February 5, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Typical of my home state (WV) Republicans to move their convention super early and still screw it up. They got their wish to relevant… relevant in giving the nomination to McCain. Funny thing too, McCain had almost no delegates committed to him for our convention (most folk can’t stand him) but he will now reap the rewards of WV’s foolishness.
Nipsey on February 5, 2008 at 2:35 PM
I’m already there.
*looks at Jack Daniels* “Daddy loves you……….”
Hawkins1701 on February 5, 2008 at 2:37 PM
I predict that my wife & I will both cast our votes for Mitt Romney tonight in the Minnestoa caucus.
argos on February 5, 2008 at 2:49 PM
We should be getting exit polls in about 15min
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 4:46 PM
U.S. Senator Sam Brownback, Former Governor Frank Keating, Congressman Spencer Bachus, Former Secretary William Ball to Campaign in North Dakota and Montana
bnelson44 on February 5, 2008 at 8:51 AM
What to expect ? Most of these guys belong to that elite club. They are closing ranks around Mac. I just hope the adder they embrace do not bite them (us).
SIJ6141 on February 5, 2008 at 5:25 PM
The difference between the Romniacs and the Fredheads is this: you’re not a Fredhead.
The rest is just rationalization.
Sure, Mitt’s got a lot going for him, in general. He’s had lots of money and built a strong organization, and researched the political market well, and positioned himself in the best possible niche.
But he’s ultimately not going to make the sale, because he’s NOT a conservative, he just plays one in the campaign. Problem is, Huckabee plays one too. And while Huckabee’s departures from conservative orthodoxy are many, he still comes across as a genuine conservative.
Remarkable, since he really isn’t.
Face it: if it was eitherRomney or Huckabee running against John McCain, McCain would lose. But that’s not the world we live in.
And for all your tiresome ridicule of Fredheads, Fred drilled a hole in the Huckabee candidacy that he’s still struggling to escape from. And for all Mitt’s money and organization, that’s one thing he could never have done in a million years.
But for all his flaws, Mitt’s the best thing left. Just don’t be shocked when he ultimately drops out and endorses McCain.
theregoestheneighborhood on February 6, 2008 at 12:44 AM
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