Open thread: California; Update: McCain wins Missouri; Update: Fox News calls California for McCain and Hillary; Update: Team Mitt plans “frank discussions” tomorrow
posted at 11:27 pm on February 5, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Results here. Whatever happens will steer the narrative tomorrow so we might as well open a thread. This is now must-win for Mitt; if McCain runs away with it, Romney’s got nothing meaningful to show for Super Tuesday. Here’s something fun to do while we wait: Scroll slowly down this list and compare the vote totals for the Democrats in each state to the totals for the GOP. Ask yourself how that bodes for fundraising during the general campaign.
Hillary’s had a reasonably good night thus far. But not good enough.
Update: With 87% reporting in Missouri, Huckabee leads McCain by 47 votes.
Update: Some sunshine for our special lady?
Update: Har. Romney’s camp says McCain underperformed.
Update: With 96% reporting in Missouri, Maverick’s pulled ahead to a 7,000-vote lead. Huckabee wanted/needed this not only for the delegates but to prove that his appeal isn’t limited to the south. The margin’s close enough that he sort of proved that anyway, although the winner-take-all element makes that a cold comfort.
Mitt? Third place, 23,000 votes off the pace.
Update: And now Fox calls Missouri for Maverick.
Update: Juan Williams says Obama leads Hillary among white men in California by 27 points, but Hillary leads big among Latinos.
Update: Have at it — the Republican and Democratic exit polls. The gender breakdowns favor Maverick and Hillary.
Update: And no sooner do I post that than Fox calls it for both of them. Big win for Mac, bigger win for the Glacier. Say goodnight, Mitt.
Update: Rove’s back-of-the-envelope estimate is that Mitt might finish third in total delegates for the night. McCain’s total is greater than Romney’s and Huckabee’s combined. Another interesting point from Rove: Obama won more states, but most of them were red states the Dems won’t carry in the general.
Update: The Messiah ekes out a 49-48 win in Missouri. As for Cali, say it with me, my friends. Never. Trust. Zogby.
Update: See-Dub helps Hewitt with the spin.
Update: Rumbles.
MSNBC’s John Yang says a Romney senior campaign official says “tomorrow will be a day of frank discussions on the campaign.”
Not quite a revelation, but the only news they have. A long day of meetings was already on the schedule long before the California news.
Yang says visit to Kansas on Friday is likely to be nixed.
Update: Si se puede!
Update: Bill Kristol thinks Mitt will pull out, possibly at CPAC(!).
Update: First in Missouri, third among Missouri conservatives.
Update: Geraghty tries to game out a Romney comeback. Big delegate lead for McCain + few WTA states left + the unlikelihood of Mitt blowing out Maverick in the proportional states + Huckabee still around to suck away conservative votes = The Reaper.
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McCain’s going to win the whole damn state.
I’m reaching for the bottle of Tanqueray now.
fiatboomer on February 5, 2008 at 11:29 PM
Any good Gubernatorial or Congressional races conservatives can get excited about this year?
billy on February 5, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Hmmm, somebody better tell the voters that Romney is out of it…
doriangrey on February 5, 2008 at 11:31 PM
Mitt’s done, so now the tough part is who to root for on the Dem side? I like Obama, seems like a good dude, but he’s way more left than Hillary, and he’d be a lot harder to knock off in the general. But I hate Hillary, and can’t stand the thought of her sneaking into the White House somehow. This whole election cycle just sucks.
RW Wacko on February 5, 2008 at 11:32 PM
Heh. Coddling Huckabee didn’t really work out all that well for The Maverick™, I guess.
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 11:33 PM
Where’s the best place to check on CA returns?
RW Wacko on February 5, 2008 at 11:33 PM
How bout those, don’t blame me i voted for Fred bumper stickers? Where do i get one of those?
Jay on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 PM
Hah, yeah, he’s created a monster, and he’s a gettin’ hungry.
RW Wacko on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 PM
Romney leading in Colorado . . .
elpresidente on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 PM
I hope so, or the blogging business is going to be pretty damn dull from here on out.
see-dubya on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 PM
i’ve got an unopened bottle of johnnie walker black label ready to go.
bring it.
locke on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 PM
Wow…6% reporting, and McCain ahead of Romney 45% to 25%…sweeeeet!
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 PM
These compressed primaries really suck. But, I think the republicans need to get behind mccain now. Romney ain’t gonna pull it out. He can’t win the south? Ouch.
Let the D’s rip each other apart for a while. Good ammo for a very tough general election.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 11:35 PM
I posted this at Michelle’s blog, but feel the need to repeat it here:
If McCain is the Republican presidential nominee (and my suspicion is that he’s struck a deal with Huckabee to be VP), I will re-register as “independent” or “decline to state.”
I haven’t decided whether or not to vote for McCain if this is the case, but at least I will not be on the mailing lists and phone lists for RNC/GOP donations. If McCain is the nominee, I will NEVER EVER donate another cent (or my personal time) to the Republican Party.
The Party elite has essentially told me, a Conservative to the end, to kiss off. Oh, and because I support strong immigration regulation and a strong border, McCain has called me a bigot and a racist. Re-registering will just me my way of telling the money-grubbing Republican Party elite twits to kiss my behind.
Kalifornia Kafir on February 5, 2008 at 11:35 PM
Romney and McCain in a dead heat in California…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/california-primary.html
doriangrey on February 5, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Right here.
Allahpundit on February 5, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Thank you.
RW Wacko on February 5, 2008 at 11:37 PM
Well, if Mitt’s not it, then what guns should I get before the Libs take them away?
I have a feeling Huck and McCain will try to stir up a “Blame the Mormons!!!” bit–they are both doing identity politics, and both either have a history of anti-mormonism, or relatives. And what do they care–they’ve proven they can either win without conservatives, or by appealing to anti-mormon prejudice.
And it’s not like the Dems will complain if the Republicans demonize Mormons–they will gleefully join in.
Why would McHuckasty do that? It’s classic “blame others” politics, and anti-mormonism is the only prejudice in America still acceptable. Well, anti conservative too. If Huck and McCain can get people talking about “those evil Mormons” then they distract from their own problems.
Is it likely? Probably not, but would anyone be surprised if they did?
Vanceone on February 5, 2008 at 11:37 PM
As much as it pains me, Mitt needs to bow out now and support “The Party”, campaign like hell for congressional seats and other GOP candidates and try again in 2012 – If he really wants the nomination. Even if he squeaks a win out in CA, I just don’t see it happening. As for the vote totals, if Obama is the nominee, it is Game Over. If Clinton is the nominee, I think all the new, young voters are going to be ticked and stay home in November…unless she picks Obama as her running mate. “Ugh” all around. Fundraising is already bad. I can’t see it getting much worse. My wife is a congressional fundraiser here in DC and is putting in 3X the effort to get about 75% of what she could have raised two years ago. Bad news all around.
The Hort on February 5, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Romney
Hiney Von Pewps on February 5, 2008 at 11:39 PM
Nothing could’ve said it better. Dud.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 11:40 PM
Seriously. Good lord, what a weak candidate. Although I can’t wait to hear how Rush spins this tomorrow. Comedy gold.
Allahpundit on February 5, 2008 at 11:41 PM
The GOP is toast in the House this fall. Too many open seats, not enough $ to cover all of the open seats and contested/competitive races. Don’t know much about Gubernatorial races, but they haven’t been trending in favor of the GOP in recent years.
The Hort on February 5, 2008 at 11:42 PM
That’s what happens when the GOP platform since 2004 has been “Anybody but Hillary!” and “electibility” over principles and policy, and promoting nothing, but liberal, socialist Republicans and moving the party consistently to the Left. You get an unmotivated base. Not surprising.
People need to get ready for 4 years of efforts to block legislation as we all did with Amnesty last summer. Only, we will all have to do this for many, many pieces of legislation as well as Supreme Court nominees and the war effort. We’ll find out how many people actually walk the walk and stay active and engaged after November 2008.
Michael in MI on February 5, 2008 at 11:43 PM
He’ll just say he did it too late. That’s why he did it today anyways instead of last week. Gotta give himself an out.
lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 11:43 PM
I put this in the other thread. I’ll post it here too.
malan89 on February 5, 2008 at 11:43 PM
GOP = Got Only Pinheads.
Pick the losingest candidate against the historical fresh wind from the Dems.
I guess they don’t remember that Dole doesn’t work once, much less twice.
profitsbeard on February 5, 2008 at 11:43 PM
You know whats funny, earlier today people were speculating whether McCain would lose Arizona, yet as it stands right now, McCain received a higher percentage of votes in MA then Romney did in Arizona. And in the end McCain will get a good amount of delegates out of Mass, and Romney will get none out of Arizona.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 11:44 PM
This is shaping up interestingly. Huckabee in the South, McCain in the Northeast, and Romney in the West. Look at what each have one: Romney’s gotten Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota, plus Michigan and Massachuessets. He may well get California. McCain almost lost Arizona to him, too. That’s a significant chunk of the country.
Huck’s gotten traction in Iowa and Missouri, plus the South. McCains gotten the Northeast.
What’s it all mean, Vern?
Vanceone on February 5, 2008 at 11:44 PM
Someone mentioned that Hugh was in full Baghdad Bob mode, but my local Salem station is running their own coverage tonight.
Hiney Von Pewps on February 5, 2008 at 11:45 PM
Is that from the Price is Right? The loser theme?
Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 11:45 PM
I am so pissed off that a few select states get to DECIDE FOR ME(!!!) what candidate I get to vote for. WHAT BS.
No I don’t like it one bit.
Ugly on February 5, 2008 at 11:46 PM
Finally, some realism. Romney’s done. He never really had a chance. A sizable chunk of the voters (Democrat and Republican) simply won’t vote for a Mormon and a lot of the rest either have problems with his flip flops or simply can’t warm up to him.
cool breeze on February 5, 2008 at 11:46 PM
Enjoy President McShamnesty. You deserve it.
malan89 on February 5, 2008 at 11:46 PM
Yea
Hiney Von Pewps on February 5, 2008 at 11:47 PM
McCain now leading by a few thousand votes in Missouri.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 11:47 PM
I think I just might also. :(
PolitiNOOB on February 5, 2008 at 11:48 PM
He did it yesterday, not today. Slight technicality, I know, but still. Bryan’s post was about yesterday’s show.
Also, if Americans are that stupid that they need Rush Limbaugh to tell them how to vote, then we have bigger problems in this country then if Rush Limbaugh does or does not endorse anyone.
Besides, I thought Rush had no influence? He has been educating people about John McCain for years, yet here is McCain the probable nominee. Obviously, the people voting for McCain do not care what Rush has to say about anything. They are not conservatives. So an endorsement by Rush has no influence whatsoever.
And again, if people in this country decide on their votes based on celebrity endorsements instead of informed, educated reasoning, then our country is in trouble.
The problem is not Rush Limbaugh, the problem is the ignorance of the American people. But, I guess it’s easier to hate on Rush than the ignorance of one’s fellow Americans.
Michael in MI on February 5, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Where are we going… and why am I in this handbasket?
Moonbat_Hunter on February 5, 2008 at 11:48 PM
This is sad. I live in Will County,which borders Cook County (Chicago). Obama alone received as many votes as all Republicans combined. Overall a pretty dismal turnout.
rockdalian on February 5, 2008 at 11:49 PM
And the 20-40 million new illegals / Democratic voters that Shamnesty will enable.
profitsbeard on February 5, 2008 at 11:49 PM
Wish Bobby Jindal was born eight years earlier. He’s the only one I see on the horizon that excites me even the slightest bit. Would love to see Obama and Jindal square off one day.
RW Wacko on February 5, 2008 at 11:50 PM
Actually, it seems like more candidates are remaining viable longer into the primary season this year. I might acually get to have a choice in March. ‘Course, it’s going to be a choice between McCain and Huckabee . . .
TX Mom on February 5, 2008 at 11:50 PM
About time somebody said it. When more people vote for American Idol, than they do in the primaries and when the majority of people don’t understand what’s going on in the world and don’t understand the issues facing our country…we end up with people like John McCain. (and really bad run-on sentences)
malan89 on February 5, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Oh Happy Days.
Right now, Obama is praising Hill.
UGH
Ugly on February 5, 2008 at 11:52 PM
So true. Unfortunately. I still think he was the best of the ones left, but if he can’t campaign any better than this . . .
TX Mom on February 5, 2008 at 11:53 PM
I’m John McCain and from now on I will approve all your messages…
Nosferightu on February 5, 2008 at 11:53 PM
this campaign is going to be a war between the bad, and the really bad. apparently.
therightwinger on February 5, 2008 at 11:54 PM
OK, I’ll grant you that McCain stinks (Huckabee too).
What does it say about Romney’s appeal that he is losing to both of them?
cool breeze on February 5, 2008 at 11:54 PM
Dude. I thought Clinton’s camp had the professional spin doctors.
TX Mom on February 5, 2008 at 11:54 PM
If the choices are the huckster or mcidiot I’m staying home during the general election. I refuse to vote for either dirtbag.
limowilliam on February 5, 2008 at 11:55 PM
Obama: never ok to use torture
Ugly on February 5, 2008 at 11:55 PM
So your celebrities of choice are Rush and Anne. What’s the diff really?
Bradky on February 5, 2008 at 11:56 PM
Hill up 23% with 13% of the votes reported. Man, I wonder if that is heavily skewed toward counties with high Hispanic or Asian populations. McCain up 19% with 12% in. I know those #s won’t last, at least I hope not.
RW Wacko on February 5, 2008 at 11:56 PM
Also, why aren’t people blaming Michelle Malkin for not endorsing someone? Why aren’t they blaming her for waiting until just this past week to put out her piece on John McCain? Where was that piece before Florida?
Stop blaming people like Rush Limbaugh for the fact that we are a country of ignoramuses. The average American mindset is closer to Miss “like, such as” South Carolina than they are to someone such as Miss Utah Jill Stevens. The average person knows more about Obama Girl than they do about Mark Steyn and Victor Davis Hanson. That isn’t the fault of Rush Limbaugh or Michelle Malkin.
Michael in MI on February 5, 2008 at 11:56 PM
I still can’t figure out why the McCain-deranaged keep crying about “amnesty”…no one, no one, no one, would deport illegals. No matter who, no matter what….no one, period, would do it.
JetBoy on February 5, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Please don’t call people ignorant just because they disagree with you. I listen to Rush often and agree with him a lot but I still went out and voted for McCain. I am a conservative, and I simply didn’t think that Romney was the better candidate. Your fellow Americans are not ignorant. They might think different then you or they might put consider certain issues ahead of the ones you care about. I remember liberals stating that those who voted for Bush were ignorant, or stupid, they were wrong then and you are wrong now.
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Watching Obama on Fox News. He’s promising so much shit I don’t know where to begin….
Ugly on February 5, 2008 at 11:58 PM
That list you linked to Allah, as of the time of this post, that’s roughly:
6.5 million GOP voters
to
10.5 million Dem voters
Not good
matthewbit07 on February 5, 2008 at 11:59 PM
Good news! Obama’s going to “free this nation from the tyranny of oil.”
John from WuzzaDem on February 5, 2008 at 11:59 PM
Gee, Romney better hope that that massive lead McVain has is all absentee ballots cast by Mexican nationals or he’s fixing to get pwned in California too.
If SD County gets to 20% reporting and McV still has that lead, we can surely start quoting Bill Paxton from Aliens.
fiatboomer on February 5, 2008 at 11:59 PM
Your comments pertaining to “losing” candidates and your non-committal observances make it seem that you are fair-weathered. Fair observation?
geckomon on February 5, 2008 at 11:59 PM
There is just a little bit more to the debate than deporting. For starters, how about not actively encouraging illegals.
Nosferightu on February 6, 2008 at 12:00 AM
:cries:
SimplyKimberly on February 6, 2008 at 12:00 AM
I’m sorry, i’m listening to Obama and he is soooo borrring.
stenwin77 on February 6, 2008 at 12:00 AM
Barry is one frigtening man. Once you peel away the frosty cover of “change” you see a politician as left as left can get.
locke on February 6, 2008 at 12:01 AM
Exactly. And I think people overestimate how much influence even the mighty Rushbo would have on peoples’ VOTE. I like Rush, but if I like someone, I am voting for them. Rush ain’t dictating my vote. He may sway some votes, but I don’t see an endorsement by Rush making a difference. Anyone below Rush will make ZERO difference. Rush may have a nearly imperceptible effect, but no one else could even make a dent in my opinion.
RW Wacko on February 6, 2008 at 12:01 AM
This!
Followed by This!
geckomon on February 6, 2008 at 12:01 AM
Because we care about it and we won’t lay down while McCain takes away the last ounce of conservatism left in the Republican Party.
If you are a “conservative” and voted for McCain, you have been duped.
Why John McCain isn’t a conservative:
malan89 on February 6, 2008 at 12:02 AM
It’s a good news/bad news kind of night. The good news is that McCain as the presumptive Republican nominee probably scares the hell out of jihadists….the bad news is that it definitely scares the hell out of me.
cthulhu on February 6, 2008 at 12:02 AM
I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
TCJ on February 6, 2008 at 12:02 AM
And he keeps tacking more and more left. I hope and pray that he is a typical politician, and does not tack right, if he is the nominee, during the general. If he tacks right, he will tear McCain into a million pieces. The guy is one hell of a politician, and slick and likeable as hell.
RW Wacko on February 6, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Prolly another reason to want hillary to win. she gets the gop vote out; and her winning may suppress the black vote cuz their guy isn’t in.
lorien1973 on February 6, 2008 at 12:03 AM
i think the jig’s up for romney
Defector01 on February 6, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Complete7 on February 5, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Disagreement I can accept. But that is not the issue. Most people are ignorant. Ask any Obama supporter about him and his policies. They don’t know anything about him, they just like his message. Ask most Americans about the important issues of the day. Most really don’t know, because they don’t care or don’t play close enough attention.
If people are making informed, educated choices, because they have different values than conservatism, then fine. I am all for informed, educated voting. But I don’t see that happening.
Plus, I go back to my original statement. The GOP platform since 2004 has been “Anybody But Hillary!” and “electibility”. That is not a platform and does not inspire people. And then when the frontrunner for a political party shows nothing, but contempt for the base of that Party, well… the GOP shall reap what is has sown come November.
Michael in MI on February 6, 2008 at 12:03 AM
Get ready for socialized health care baby!!! YES WE CAN!!
HUUUUURRRRL
fiatboomer on February 6, 2008 at 12:04 AM
There are, however, many people who do not follow politics as closely as those at HA, and they look to pundits they respect and generally agree with to give them some direction. I think that is perfectly legitimate. Such people know their limitations and go with those they trust. If Rush couls have used his influence with that group, it would have been good for the movement in general.
Nosferightu on February 6, 2008 at 12:04 AM
The Obama supporters I’ve talked to don’t know ANYTHING about him. This is true ignorance.
I’m sure the same goes for a lot of these self described “conservatives” voting for McCain. They only know about what they see in the MSM. People need to get informed before they head out to the polling places.
malan89 on February 6, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Anyone know of a good country left on the planet to move to? This one is done.
RightWinged on February 6, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Sorry, all the others did their Wile E. Coyote impersonations in the last 20 years or so.
fiatboomer on February 6, 2008 at 12:08 AM
If the Liberals take back Australia from Labor, I’d consider moving down under.
malan89 on February 6, 2008 at 12:09 AM
Well, without MO, my man Mitt is out. What a drag.
I’d even be willing to support that sleazebag Huckabee…but McCain? I can’t believe I might vote democrat in the fall…
JustTruth101 on February 6, 2008 at 12:09 AM
It’s down to us and Australia, as the only two halfway normal places left on Earth. Might as well hunker down and defend this one, even as it goes down in flames.
RW Wacko on February 6, 2008 at 12:10 AM
Don’t count him out yet. I’m convinced that there are conservatives left in this country.
malan89 on February 6, 2008 at 12:11 AM
RW Wacko on February 6, 2008 at 12:01 AM
Exactly, RW Wacko. I am a huge Rush fan, as anyone can tell from my blog. He inspires me. After dealing with the nonsense that is politics and political blogs, I listen to him each day focus on conservatism and not give in to the nonsense and it inspires me to stay engaged. His message of working to get people informed, educated and engaged in the political process is one that I wholeheartedly agree with.
However, people think that those of us who listen to Rush are just mind-numbed robots who follow his every word. Rush-haters are similar to Bush-haters of the Left in that sense, because Leftists always believe that if one supports a policy of President Bush then we are Bush-bots or drinking the kool-aid.
Personally, if Rush Limbaugh starts saying that we need to get behind a McCain/Huckabee ticket, I will part ways with him on that stance. Anyone who listens to his show knows that people call in all the time and disagree with him and people call in all the time and thank him for giving a powerful, public voice to their already deeply held beliefs and convictions, because no one else has the courage to do that.
But the intent of his show is to inform, educate, get people engaged and to entertain. And, of course, to make money. He is not a lobbyist or a politician. He puts faith in the American people to hear the facts from him and then make up their own minds.
All this hate for him is really pretty ridiculous.
Michael in MI on February 6, 2008 at 12:11 AM
We need to find another country with a liberal immigration policy where we can all go and vote a a block and eventually take over. I hear that model has been successful where its been tried.
Canada has potential. Maybe San Marino.
Nosferightu on February 6, 2008 at 12:11 AM
Wow. Colorado? Cool.
Christoph on February 6, 2008 at 12:11 AM
JustTruth101 on February 6, 2008 at 12:09 AM
I don’t know if I could support Huck over McCain. Hucks use of religion as a political weapon is just too sleazy for me. Right now I feel like staying home when PA finally gets around to voting.
matthewbit07 on February 6, 2008 at 12:12 AM
Never underestimate the power of liberal white guilt.
funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 12:12 AM
And Australia is crawling with immigrants collecting welfare, the kind that put little black sheets on all the pretty girls. Plus, the insane liberals took away a lot of the population’s guns…so there really isn’t anyplace to go. I have looked also.
JustTruth101 on February 6, 2008 at 12:12 AM
Colorado goes to Romney. Brit Hume and the MSM try to play it off.
malan89 on February 6, 2008 at 12:13 AM
The hits just keep on comin’. By the time I had talked myself into supporting McCain in the ge because he’s “way better than that scumbag Obama”, and comforted myself that at least he’s not some hick religious bigot like Huckabee, here comes Hickabee in the moonshine states.
McCain isn’t going to make this douchebag the VP … is he? Please, Lord. Not that.
Jaibones on February 6, 2008 at 12:13 AM
John McCain won California!
Complete7 on February 6, 2008 at 12:13 AM
You realize all seven Australian states and the federal government are Labor, right?
Christoph on February 6, 2008 at 12:13 AM
McLiar wins california
csdeven on February 6, 2008 at 12:14 AM
Here’s some *marginally* good news from the California exit polls: Mitt overwhelmingly won the 25-29 age group with 43%. Good news -maybe- for the future.
fiatboomer on February 6, 2008 at 12:14 AM
Looks like someone called MO to early for Clinton, Obama is leading by 4k with 98% in…still counting votes
TOPV on February 6, 2008 at 12:14 AM
Fox just called CA for McCain.
p0s3r on February 6, 2008 at 12:14 AM
Mitt’s Done.
Complete7 on February 6, 2008 at 12:14 AM
Mitt was a mistake to back. Big states back moderates so conservatives need the south to win. Mitt with his mormonism cant win the south.
Fred was really the only true viable conservative candidate in this race. I sadly predicted this craziness months ago that Mitt was disaster waitng to happen. Not because he is a bad guy but because people wouldnt identify with him and want to vote for him.
Look at it this way. Would most vote for an american McCain or a British Tony Blair as American President ?
William Amos on February 6, 2008 at 12:15 AM
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