Open thread: California; Update: McCain wins Missouri; Update: Fox News calls California for McCain and Hillary; Update: Team Mitt plans “frank discussions” tomorrow

posted at 11:27 pm on February 5, 2008 by Allahpundit

Results here. Whatever happens will steer the narrative tomorrow so we might as well open a thread. This is now must-win for Mitt; if McCain runs away with it, Romney’s got nothing meaningful to show for Super Tuesday. Here’s something fun to do while we wait: Scroll slowly down this list and compare the vote totals for the Democrats in each state to the totals for the GOP. Ask yourself how that bodes for fundraising during the general campaign.

Hillary’s had a reasonably good night thus far. But not good enough.

Update: With 87% reporting in Missouri, Huckabee leads McCain by 47 votes.

Update: Some sunshine for our special lady?

Update: Har. Romney’s camp says McCain underperformed.

Update: With 96% reporting in Missouri, Maverick’s pulled ahead to a 7,000-vote lead. Huckabee wanted/needed this not only for the delegates but to prove that his appeal isn’t limited to the south. The margin’s close enough that he sort of proved that anyway, although the winner-take-all element makes that a cold comfort.

Mitt? Third place, 23,000 votes off the pace.

Update: And now Fox calls Missouri for Maverick.

Update: Juan Williams says Obama leads Hillary among white men in California by 27 points, but Hillary leads big among Latinos.

Update: Have at it — the Republican and Democratic exit polls. The gender breakdowns favor Maverick and Hillary.

Update: And no sooner do I post that than Fox calls it for both of them. Big win for Mac, bigger win for the Glacier. Say goodnight, Mitt.

Update: Rove’s back-of-the-envelope estimate is that Mitt might finish third in total delegates for the night. McCain’s total is greater than Romney’s and Huckabee’s combined. Another interesting point from Rove: Obama won more states, but most of them were red states the Dems won’t carry in the general.

Update: The Messiah ekes out a 49-48 win in Missouri. As for Cali, say it with me, my friends. Never. Trust. Zogby.

zogby.png

Update: See-Dub helps Hewitt with the spin.

Update: Rumbles.

MSNBC’s John Yang says a Romney senior campaign official says “tomorrow will be a day of frank discussions on the campaign.”

Not quite a revelation, but the only news they have. A long day of meetings was already on the schedule long before the California news.

Yang says visit to Kansas on Friday is likely to be nixed.

Update: Si se puede!

Update: Bill Kristol thinks Mitt will pull out, possibly at CPAC(!).

Update: First in Missouri, third among Missouri conservatives.

Update: Geraghty tries to game out a Romney comeback. Big delegate lead for McCain + few WTA states left + the unlikelihood of Mitt blowing out Maverick in the proportional states + Huckabee still around to suck away conservative votes = The Reaper.


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Lehosh

I oppose Huck as much as you do, but I think you’re exaggerating as much as you say he does.

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:39 AM

Maverick will beat her by a hundred and fifty electoral votes.

THE CHOSEN ONE on February 6, 2008 at 8:39 AM

McShamnesty can’t even get a majority of Republicans and you think he’s going to beat the dems…ROFLMAO!!!!

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 8:42 AM

Never Trust Zogby

Zogby used to be the preeminent pollster a decade ago. What happened?

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:42 AM

Shessh. You are all like battered wives, making excuses for an insecure napoleanic jerk.

Pwned you scott.

csdeven on February 6, 2008 at 8:42 AM

Allahpundit sounds like a crybaby blaming Fred Thompson supporters for Romney’s failure. At least he now admits that he was avidly against Fred Thompson when Fred Thompson had a platform compared to Mitt’s hollow promise lattice. Mitt begat his own woes upon himself long ago. If he chooses to continue, fine. If he chooses to try again next time, fine. Romney supporters blaming anyone but their own man for his own shortcomings as a candidate is dull. Also, Mitt’ns cry of “bigot” to any critic pressures departure of rational support as well.

If any wish to endorse a candidate, that being done up front is better than behind a curtain of intrigue.

Rush & Co. enjoy the same liberties as any American. Timing aside, it is the entire election system that needs reformation.

1. No ballot machine. Uniform national paper ballot only.
2. Single national primary election day.
3. Proof of citizenship for registration voter picture ID.
4. Popular vote, national tally. NO DELEGATES.

This is the 21st Century. Voters can read and write. The internet allows scrutiny of issues and candidates prior to elections. It is an absolute insult to have our votes “interpreted” into what political hacks incorporate “on our behalf”, denying the voice of the people. When it is the CONSERVATIVES screaming for reformation, the revolution must have begun.

What we GOP here is a failure to communicate.

maverick muse on February 6, 2008 at 8:43 AM

jwp1964

Uh, McCain is getting a majority of Republicans.

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:43 AM

My mistake in my observations is not understanding how much “my” party has changed. I believe it’s ok to succeed/fail based on one’s own choices. I believe my choices have consequences, good and bad, and it’s not government’s responsibility to mitigate or enhance them. I believe in making choices based on principles not on fear. I assumed “my” party promotes those beliefs. Those who voted illustrate a different party from what I’ve known. Too many self-promoters within the party have changed the tack of the party for popularity.

Cold Steel on February 6, 2008 at 8:44 AM

When Hillary locks up the nomination with her fake tears, it will be game time and conservatives will get in line with their collective chins up. I know if Mav lost I would be carrying water for Huckmania or The Hair.

THE CHOSEN ONE on February 6, 2008 at 8:45 AM

Voters can read and write.

What we GOP here is a failure to communicate.

maverick muse on February 6, 2008 at 8:43 AM

Voters can read and write..,

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 8:46 AM

Mark McKinnon was W’s add guy. Mark McKinnon is Mav’s add guy. Mark McKinnon is a frickin’ genius. I can’t wait for him to work with Hillary. It’ll be like Michaelangelo and the sistine chapel.

THE CHOSEN ONE on February 6, 2008 at 8:48 AM

and like me use inappropriate punctuation and quotes

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 8:49 AM

If the everything-or-nothing club on our side—-

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:37 AM

Belittling others and their convictions won’t earn you any converts.

leanright on February 6, 2008 at 8:51 AM

I oppose Huck as much as you do, but I think you’re exaggerating as much as you say he does.

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:39 AM

I didn’t say Huck is exaggerating, and I’m not exaggerating at all.

Anger: Huck claimed the “Republican Establishment” and Wall Street Republicans were trying to silence him because he was a Christian.
Fear: Huck wonders aloud at a presser whether or not those weird Mormons think Jesus and Satan are brothers.
Envy: Huck panders to crass populism by pointing to the rich and claiming they’re too rich, then pointing to the Middle Class and saying they’re being shafted. He stirs up bitterness by denigrating the wealthy.

And he most certainly did say that people who opposed McCain’s immigration bill were un-Christian and anti-Life.

Lehosh on February 6, 2008 at 8:52 AM

csdeven on February 6, 2008 at 8:42 AM

The Mormon candidate lost. Get over it.

packsoldier on February 6, 2008 at 8:53 AM

I don’t get it.

THE CHOSEN ONE on February 6, 2008 at 8:23 AM

HuckaGibot is a bigot, that’s why.

csdeven on February 6, 2008 at 8:54 AM

un-Christian & anti-Life

I’m unfamiliar with that. Can you cite the exact quote, in context, & where it was said? I’d be amazed if he really said that.

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:54 AM

Why would I be here all the time if i were a dem?

Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 1:54 AM

If I had to guess, I think it has to do with being stuck at some childhood Freudian stage where you like to crap in public and play with your excrement. I think it’s about needing attention from a parent, but this isn’t really my specialty. It’s very effective, however, because the smell drives a lot of us from the room. You’re not alone either. It also shows up in your s/n. My kid tells me it’s a children’s cartoon character?

There’s a lady here called Ms. E. She might be able to help. She’s had some successes, and alas, some failures. Good luck.

JiangxiDad on February 6, 2008 at 8:56 AM

I’m unfamiliar with that. Can you cite the exact quote, in context, & where it was said? I’d be amazed if he really said that.

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:54 AM

Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK – Gov. Mike Huckabee Thursday denounced a bill by Sen. Jim Holt that would deny state benefits to illegal immigrants as un-Christian, un-American, irresponsible and anti-life.

Lehosh on February 6, 2008 at 8:58 AM

The Mormon candidate lost. Get over it.

packsoldier on February 6, 2008 at 8:53 AM

Who is the Mormon candidate?

csdeven on February 6, 2008 at 8:58 AM

everything-or-nothing club

I’m sorry if you think I was “belittling” you. But it seems to me that some on our side need to learn that compromise is essential in getting anything done in politics.
There are people I admire very much in that “club”.

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:59 AM

Lehosh

I stand corrected…& astounded. Huck just lost more credibilty w/ me.

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 9:00 AM

But it seems to me that some on our side need to learn that compromise is essential in getting anything done in politics.

There are some issues you cannot compromise on.

Mercutio on February 6, 2008 at 9:02 AM

Maverick will beat her by a hundred and fifty electoral votes.

THE CHOSEN ONE on February 6, 2008 at 8:39 AM

Your building a castle out of glass, it’s looks absolutely beautiful. I hope it can withstand the November storm.

leanright on February 6, 2008 at 9:04 AM

Cannot compromise

Like what? McCain is kinda conservative, while either Dem is ultra-liberal. If voting for McCain (holding your nose if you must) will keep Obamary out of office, isn’t that a compromise worth doing?

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 9:05 AM

CA election results by congressional district is here:
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/rcd/index.htm

Remember they divy their delegates up by congressional district there.

bnelson44 on February 6, 2008 at 9:06 AM

I’ve been mercilessly beaten about the head & lied about over this, but I’ll say it again: McCain has a lifetime rating of 82.3% by the American Conservative Union (acuratings.org). Yes, he has slipped into the lower 60s & upper 50s lately, but that’s slightly better than Hillary’s 9.0% or Obama’s 8.0%, isn’t it?

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 9:09 AM

If voting for McCain (holding your nose if you must) will keep Obamary out of office, isn’t that a compromise worth doing?

Not if the end results are the same.

Mercutio on February 6, 2008 at 9:09 AM

isn’t that a compromise worth doing?

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 9:05 AM

No it is not worth doing! How any Repub can vote for a man who flirted with joining the dems, considered being their VP, wants 20 million new dems overnight, calls Repubs who don’t support McShamnesty racists and flips the finger to the party on a regular basis is way beyond me. If you want to bend over for that backstabber, good for you. I will under no circumstances vote for a man like that.

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:10 AM

I guarantee you that as soon as McCain locks up the nomination you will see a dramatic shift to the left.

Mercutio on February 6, 2008 at 9:10 AM

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 8:59 AM

Just testy on “the morning after the night before.”

leanright on February 6, 2008 at 9:10 AM

the same

Hillary 9.0%
Obama 8.0%

jgapinoy on February 6, 2008 at 9:10 AM

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 8:46 AM

For one, winner take all opposes responsibility to represent the voter, prefering the enabling of the corrupt political fix.

Also, the time has come to eliminate the antiquated practical need for delegates to travel and cast promisory votes on behalf of farmers and frontiersmen, themselves unable to travel to the polling booth. Obviously, delegates today inhibit the voice of the people.

maverick muse on February 6, 2008 at 9:13 AM

Voting record does not make the results different.

Liberal justices for courts? Check
Amnesty? Check
Porous borders? Check
Higher taxes? Check
Bigger government? Check

Mercutio on February 6, 2008 at 9:15 AM

Also, the time has come to eliminate the antiquated practical need for delegates to travel and cast promisory votes on behalf of farmers and frontiersmen, themselves unable to travel to the polling booth. Obviously, delegates today inhibit the voice of the people.

maverick muse on February 6, 2008 at 9:13 AM

I guess you want to get rid of the electoral college as well? This is a REPUBLIC! Going to direct democracy will ensure that the left and east coast control this country…representative democracy is sheer genius!

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:15 AM

McDolemania!

It’s 1996 in America again!

Except for the extra 20 million illegals / future Democratic voters.

At least they’re non-Mormons!

Vote Republican for Congress.

Hillary & Obama are open opponents.

McCain, a liar in R’s clothing.

I’ll write-in Romney.

profitsbeard on February 6, 2008 at 9:16 AM

I’ll write-in Romney.

profitsbeard on February 6, 2008 at 9:16 AM

I’ll vote dem…I want the next 8 years hung on them…not Repubs through McShamnesty!

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:20 AM

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:15 AM

You think these practices are literally in the Constitution?
Our Republic does not stand or fall based upon delegates, delegations, or the electoral college for that matter.

maverick muse on February 6, 2008 at 9:21 AM

You think these practices are literally in the Constitution?
Our Republic does not stand or fall based upon delegates, delegations, or the electoral college for that matter.

maverick muse on February 6, 2008 at 9:21 AM

The electoral college is literally in the constitution. Yes, I think the Republic does stand or fall on it. Do you think this would be the same country if we went with popular voye? Do you think this would be the same country without small states (where real Americans live, work) having equal representation in the Senate…our framers were geniuses (contrary to what school children hear everyday).

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:25 AM

You’ve successfully listed all of the left-leaning Republican and liberal talking points! Great job!!! Do us all a favor and defect to the Green party. Rush has 12 million listeners, Mark Levin has like 4 million and Sean Hannity/Glenn Beck have numbers between the two. Put down the New York Times and go have your lobotomy finished.

DEATH OF CONSERVATIVE TALK RADIO.

The big halo these so-called “pundits” had on their heads, collapsed. Rushing to Romney for help when it’s too late, when he was there all the time from the very beginning, proves only one thing:

CONSERVATIVE TALK RADIO IS FULL OF HOT AIR!!

Indy Conservative on February 6, 2008 at 1:20 AM

Levinite on February 6, 2008 at 2:21 AM

If I don’t agree with you and the like, then I’m a liberal…OK.

Anyway, where were these 12 and 4 millions you’re talking about at the polling places yesterday?

Obviously none of them were listening, or maybe they were listening without listening, if you know what I mean. So much for talk radio!

Indy Conservative on February 6, 2008 at 9:26 AM

maverick muse,

The Electoral College is embodied in the Constitution in Article 2, Section 1, and in the 12th Amendment.

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:31 AM

csdeven on February 6, 2008 at 8:42 AM

The Mormon candidate lost. Get over it.

packsoldier on February 6, 2008 at 8:53 AM

The principled candidate lost. I refuse to get over it.

Cold Steel on February 6, 2008 at 9:39 AM

BTW.

Laura Ingraham refuses to back down.
“My views aren’t based on the polls.”

McCain only reaches left. Good luck building a coalition.

Cold Steel on February 6, 2008 at 9:40 AM

Romney would have to win over 70% of the remaining delegates. So far, he’s won about 25%. Even if he can prevent McCain reaching the magic number (1191) it won’t make a difference. If Maverick is, let’s say, 100 delegates short, Huckabee will ride to the rescue in return for the VP spot.
Whichever way you look at it, Romney is history. He’s a rich man but there’s no point in throwing good money after bad.

infidel65 on February 6, 2008 at 9:41 AM

Long live the Talk Radio Mafia.

Cold Steel on February 6, 2008 at 9:41 AM

Which principled candidate was that? Duncan Hunter?

Romney is for ethanol subsidies (at least in Iowa) and for federal bailouts for Michigan (at least in Michigan) and for expansion of Medicare (at least in Florida). He supports the assault weapons ban on NBC with Tim Russert in December, but opposes it when speaking with instapundit in January.

He was 100% for gay marriage in 2002, but opposes it now? His Mittcare pays for abortions for poor women.

I’ll vote for Romney if he is the candidate in the general election, but I ain’t buying the argument that he’s a strong issues oriented conservative.

funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 9:46 AM

No it is not worth doing! How any Repub can vote for a man who flirted with joining the dems, considered being their VP, wants 20 million new dems overnight, calls Repubs who don’t support McShamnesty racists and flips the finger to the party on a regular basis is way beyond me. If you want to bend over for that backstabber, good for you. I will under no circumstances vote for a man like that.

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:10 AM

Ditto. The Repubs will get EXACTLY what they have asked for come Nov. Refusing to get behind a conservative, from the very beginning, and we has a couple to choose from, and sticking by him to create a ground swell that would have crushed McCain, instead they were fickle and will wind up with a dim in the whitehouse. Hillary/Obama/McCain. Take your pick. Personally I think it will be Hillary because when McCain gets the nod, the tear down will begin.ie MSM, etc.

kcd on February 6, 2008 at 9:48 AM

japingoy NO it’s the new math… 50=8. Get on board the derangement express!

funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 9:48 AM

Ok, I ranted last night and this morning and I feel much better. Not good enough to vote for McCain, ever, but over my crazy reactionary state. Got to get to work. Later

jwp1964 on February 6, 2008 at 9:48 AM

After seven years of watching and fighting against Americans who wish to see the country suffer so that they can get at George Bush, the last thing I wanted or expected to see was conservatives saying they would rather see the country suffer than support John McCain over Clinton or Obama, so that they can “get the blame.”

A retreat before victory is assured in Iraq cannot be undone in 2012. And mandatory, single-payer, universal health care, once established, will not EVER go away either.

I am not impugning anyone’s motives. I believe I have a reasonable understanding of principled behavior. But if your goal is to see the country punished because—

You can stop right there. If your goal is to see America punished, and her people open to attack and/or ruined financially in order to prove a point for any reason, then you do not deserve politial power nor are you likely to achieve it. A party is a compact. It is, essentially, a pleage of mutual support. As a matter of fact, it’s nothing more or less than a promise.

A political party is a series of personal compromises in order to achieve a goal unattainable by the perfect political party: one’s own self. If McCain is the legal and lawfully selected nominee, and Republicans decide to walk away from their party in droves, what makes them think they will be able to count on those who, you know, actually went out and voted Republican either joyfully or through clenched teeth, in order to prevent The Deluge?

If your idea of any political party is one that means unlimited support for your personal values if your candidate is ascendant, while you in turn owe none to those you dislike or even disdain, you might be in for a surprise in future elections.

Speaking as a FredHead myself, I am bitterly disappointed that I did not even have the chance to vote for a man I admired, and am more distraught still to find myself in the position I now occupy. I see many, many worrisome things about John McCain, but being tough on terror and spending are not among them. We could do worse. Two names come to mind immediately.

Much is said about principles, and since I am not able elect anyone BY MYSELF I have entered into this pact with the group of people who I feel most comfortable with in terms of values. If they, as a body, choose a candidate who is not my first, second, third or fourth choice, then I can look to the Democrats. There I find views so antithetical to everything I believe that I realize there is indeed something to this idea of party loyalty.

And I cannot help but think that such a kind and practical man as Ronald Reagan would be amazed that his name was being invoked so frequently in order to insure that the most liberal, socialist, power-hungry statist in my living memory is elected. I’m glad he’s not here to see this because if he knew the consequences of what was being done in his name, I believe it would kill the man.

Bill Whittle

funky chicken on February 6, 2008 at 9:51 AM

Why is this a shock. Mitt does not connect with the people, he is un-electable to this high of a position. He may have appealed to the liberals in Mass (that’s the type of people who fall for his schtick), but the general Republican conservatives won’t.
Mitt wasted a lot of conservative resources, on a campaign doomed from the beginning. He helped divide the party, he just isn’t ready for the big dance.

right2bright on February 6, 2008 at 9:57 AM

Cut and paste, smear with impunity funky. You know nothing of Mitt’s principles, as evidenced by your regurgitated talking points. You’re not interested in logical debate. It’s typical of where the party is going and it is a winning formula. If you can’t beat the dems at the entitlement and fear game, then by all means, use the same tactics. McCain will soon be in the Republican Nomination Hall of Fame with his buddy Bob Dole.

Cold Steel on February 6, 2008 at 9:58 AM

right2bright on February 6, 2008 at 9:57 AM

What it portends is the entitlement age. The country is looking the government for answers/help. There is a refusal to look at oneself in the equation. He was ready. The welfare state wasn’t ready. They’re not interested in learning how to succeed on their own merit. They’re looking on how they can get something for nothing.

Cold Steel on February 6, 2008 at 10:02 AM

McCain is the nominee. He’s been prepped for this for 8 years by the MSM and the Republican political establishment (BushCo. included). He’s going to lose, and he’s going to fracture the party in the process. I’ll vote for the man in the general, given that I cannot in good conscience vote for anyone else, but I won’t be giving any money to his vanity campaign.

Bob Dole was/is a good man. John McCain is no Bob Dole.

spmat on February 6, 2008 at 11:00 AM

Bob Dole was/is a good man. John McCain is no Bob Dole.

spmat on February 6, 2008 at 11:00 AM

I second that…

right2bright on February 6, 2008 at 2:19 PM

You have got to be kidding. In a few more years, that man won’t be able to control his own bowels let alone the country.
leanright on February 6, 2008 at 8:26 AM

And now I would like to poke out my mind’s eye.

sheesh on February 6, 2008 at 3:23 PM

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