Awesomely awesome: Dem nomination almost guaranteed to come down to super delegates

posted at 2:55 pm on February 5, 2008 by Allahpundit

Say it with me: Selected, not elected.

From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75). That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.

Everyone on the same page here? 2,025 delegates needed to clinch, but the Messiah’s made such a contest of it that realistically neither one of them can win enough pledged delegates (i.e. delegates you earn by picking up districts and winning the state popular vote) to do it. Which means it falls to the 796 unpledged “super” delegates — the party elite, many of whom are accountable to no one — to decide. And what does that mean? Wonderful things, my friends.

Follow the link to Bowers’s post and read down to the update. I think he’s right about how the Democrats are going to handle this. Call it a party version of the “national popular vote” initiative. If the super delegates won’t bind themselves to vote as a bloc, the pressure on whoever trails next month to drop out and avoid a convention fight will be enormous, thus raising the tantalizing prospect of a melodrama where Hillary has to commit hara kiri because the party establishment, of all things, simply doesn’t love her anymore. Dude. Dude.

We’re getting closer but we’re not there yet. Given how next week’s primaries favor the Messiah, a shock tonight could give him such Mo that Hillary’s on life support by the end of the month. The polls say that Teddy’s endorsement surprisingly hasn’t done much for him. Check back tonight at 11 when California comes in; then we’ll know.

I leave you with an attack on Barack Obama, warmonger, from the left. Er, I mean, right.

Update: And then there’s the identity politics angle


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Thats unfortunately also a scenario the rpoublicans could face if Mitt does well today.

William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

So, we’re talking about increased Democratic in-fighting for the next month or few at least? Dude

amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

We get so wrapped up in the death of the Conservatives that we sometimes forget the absolute chaos on the other side. Think the McCain/Romney battles are brutal? The knives out on the Dem side are sweeeeeeet.

I don’t honestly know if either party will survive this election.

Vanceone on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

Thats unfortunately also a scenario the rpoublicans could face if Mitt does well today.

No super delegates on the GOP side. Although a brokered convention is technically possible.

Allahpundit on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

Although a brokered convention is technically possible.

Allahpundit on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

Though I believe, personally, unlikely.

amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 3:00 PM

The latinos will pull it out for Hillary.

Theworldisnotenough on February 5, 2008 at 3:02 PM

Looks like a Hillary landslide if it depends on the Super Delegates.

cannonball on February 5, 2008 at 3:03 PM

No super delegates on the GOP side. Although a brokered convention is technically possible.

Allahpundit on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

Thats what Paul is hoping for

offroadaz on February 5, 2008 at 3:03 PM


My, Friends…

I don’t honestly know if either party any of us will survive this election.

Doomed.

Dorvillian on February 5, 2008 at 3:04 PM

This is my favorite story of the day.

Imagine the recriminations, the infighting, the sheer howling if Democratic “elites” take the nomination away from the people’s choice.

Tasty.

Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 3:05 PM

No super delegates on the GOP side. Although a brokered convention is technically possible.

Allahpundit on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

Umm dude

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate

The Republican Party has 123 similarly automatically appointed delegates, members of the Republican National Committee. Including these appointees, the Republican Party has 463 unpledged delegates out of a total of 2,380 delegates.

William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 3:06 PM

I think the best course of action for conservatives is to spend the rest of Bush’s political capital on marijuana legalization. That may blunt and cloud the winds of change.

ninjapirate on February 5, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Is this cycle a disaster for both parties or what?

lorien1973 on February 5, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Say it with me: Selected, not elected.

Such beautifully ironic symmetry

LimeyGeek on February 5, 2008 at 3:10 PM

ninjapirate on February 5, 2008 at 3:06 PM

what political capital?

ernesto on February 5, 2008 at 3:10 PM

That picture of Billary is my favorite. I think if you show it enough you might scare some of us conservatives into voting for McVain :-)

It can’t hurt.

TOPV on February 5, 2008 at 3:13 PM

I don’t honestly know if either party will survive this election.

Vanceone on February 5, 2008 at 2:59 PM

Wow. That kind of makes me all warm inside.

MikeZero on February 5, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Mmmm … tasty. Hilary commits sepuku to honor the Messiah. Or BHO swallows his ambition to be the Least Experienced President Ever so the Queen can ascend to Her Rightful Place. The Democratic Party is a snake eating its own tale.

Vote Sauron 08 on February 5, 2008 at 3:19 PM

Thanks AP, that will bring a tear to her eye. I suspect she knows that, and some of her campaign stops almost have a “goodbye sister” to the theme.
She is on her way out, cry me a river…

right2bright on February 5, 2008 at 3:20 PM

At least we’re not the only side who is in complete chaos…

doubleplusundead on February 5, 2008 at 3:20 PM

Hillary on Fox: I’d be more than happy to go one-on-one with McCain over his statement that he knows little about the economy, considering it’s the number one issue.

Wonderful…

amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 3:20 PM

Damn that Bush he has the dems fighitng each other he really is hitler !

/Moonbat 2008

William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 3:21 PM

Here’s my conspiracy theory: HClinton was chosen by the Dem elite to be the nominee. Obama agreed to play the part of ‘opponent’. He gains seasoning for future races, she has ‘tough’ competition, which makes her look stronger when she ‘wins’.
Obama takes a dive in the 8th round, after Super Tuesday, HClinton looks as if she’s the people’s choice instead of the Dem selected nominee.
Bye the bye, if McCain follows Obama in this drama as the ‘chosen’ opponent, just wait-the Dem mud machine will be obliterate him. All of us sudden newspapers will declare him too old, too out of touch, too divisive, not a true fill-in-the-blank.

Doug on February 5, 2008 at 3:22 PM

OHHHHHHH! Hahaha, my this is interesting. And Superdelegates can switch whenever they want…and I have a feeling they’re going to leave Clinton in the dust. She better watch out.

mattyj86 on February 5, 2008 at 3:24 PM

You get the Govt You Deserve.. Our Conservative Choices were Alan Keyes.. Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter…God always gives us Choices and lets US follow Him or suffer the consequences. I guess a little less “fire in the belly” wouldnt be so hard to stomach now..:O BTW..Alan Keyes came in third as the 2000 GOP Presidential Nominee. Ronald Reagan held him in the highest regard and admired Him greatly. Alan Keyes has not waivered from His convictions but the Party has…hence the Government we are now getting and now so justly DESERVE..:) PoPcorn anyone?

LibsREvilDoers on February 5, 2008 at 3:25 PM

Isn’t Bubba a superdelegate?

amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 3:25 PM

Isn’t Bubba a superdelegate?

amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 3:25 PM

Dunno probably Jimmy Carter also. Be FUNNY if Algore was as wel

William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 3:28 PM

Isn’t Bubba a superdegenerate?

saint kansas on February 5, 2008 at 3:29 PM

Doug, I’ve had the same thoughts. I’ve also wondered about those “faux pas” statements by Bill Clinton… he’s a brilliant political manipulator, so I find it very hard to believe that he’d “mess up” like that. I’ve wondered if that was all done on purpose, so that when Hillary wins, it’ll look like she won despite her husband, not because of him. I never underestimate the Clinton’s ability to create brilliant political strategies.

dave_lantos on February 5, 2008 at 3:32 PM

Here’s a list of superdelegates.

Bill is on the list, as is Alcee Hastings and Walter Mondale. I don’t see Jimmy Carter or Al Gore, though.

amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 3:32 PM

Bill is on the list, as is Alcee Hastings and Walter Mondale. I don’t see Jimmy Carter or Al Gore, though.

amerpundit on February 5, 2008 at 3:32 PM

Snicker they are still irrelevant I see ha !

William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 3:33 PM

Maybe John Edwards isn’t so stupid after all. He saw this knife coming and got out of Dodge. Scoring the VP slot wouldn’t be worth listening to the howling that will go for years. And if the Republican wins in November, 50% of the Democrats will be blaming the other 50% until the last one is lying in the grave.

pedestrian on February 5, 2008 at 3:36 PM

This whole thing will lead to the two Dems on the same ticket, especially if HRC is on the top.

HRC really should have answered in the last debate that she would not put Obama on the ticket because he lacks experience. The media could have spent the entire week leading up to today discussing whether or not Obama is qualified.

rw on February 5, 2008 at 3:40 PM

Doomed.

Dorvillian on February 5, 2008 at 3:04 PM

Nope. Demmed.

BacaDog on February 5, 2008 at 3:50 PM

As I noted over at PW, the Bowers solution is more easily blogged than done. If tonight (or future nights) turn out like Nevada — HRC wins the popular vote, but Obama wins more delegates (possibly) — awesome awesomeness will ensue.

Plus, the super-delegates may have different agendas — House members may feel pressure to go with their district, but Sens. and Govs. may prefer the statewide pop vote. And there is the possibility of deal-making and super-delegate poaching, too.

Karl on February 5, 2008 at 3:53 PM

And don’t forget, we still have to get those Michigan and Florida delegates their place at the table. Either they get reinstated and give Hillary the victory, pissing off the Obama supporters, or they get blocked out, Obama wins the nomination, but has a lot of seriously pissed off democratic voters in two potential swing states.

Man, I wish the R’s would nominate someone I could really feel good about.

Dudley Smith on February 5, 2008 at 3:56 PM

Something tells me that all those “super delegates” we’ve been hearing so much about are already bought and paid for. Check and Mate. Sorry Bambi.

Gartrip on February 5, 2008 at 3:59 PM

Something tells me that all those “super delegates” we’ve been hearing so much about are already bought and paid for. Check and Mate. Sorry Bambi.
Gartrip on February 5, 2008 at 3:59 PM

Yup. This short video gives us an idea of what it’s going to look like when those superdelegates come home.

Slublog on February 5, 2008 at 4:03 PM

Can they move the convention to Dade County, just for old time’s sake?

Chuck Schick on February 5, 2008 at 4:29 PM

Doug on February 5, 2008 at 3:22 PM

You know, I’ve been wondering about that too. And could it be that Obama has done so much better than anyone anticipated, that the wheels are just falling off the whole thing? It’s fun to speculate…

Lan Astaslem on February 5, 2008 at 4:30 PM

Just when you think this election cant be any more rediculous

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080205/ap_on_el_ge/campaign_voting_problems

At a Chicago hot dog joint doubling as a polling place, a technical glitch left only one touch-screen machine in use, making the line to vote much longer than the queue at U Lucky Dawg’s counter, where the specials of the day included a Flying Mario Burrito for $3.09.

William Amos on February 5, 2008 at 4:41 PM

Open question:

Do both parties use proportional delegate allocation for the top 3 winners in each of the 50 states?

Or are some states winner take all for one party and not the other, etc?

Chuck Schick on February 5, 2008 at 4:52 PM

My question re: the prospect of the Dems using a ‘national dem popular vote’ to determine their candidate:

Do they count the people who voted in FL and any other state that was “disqualified” by the party for holding their primary early?

Remember how HRC said in her “Thank-you” speech after winning the meaningless FL vote that their votes “should count”? Is this part of some shrewd political anticipation on her part?

Okay, maybe that was more than one question, but anyone else have any thoughts?

Tremor on February 5, 2008 at 5:21 PM

i can envision a rock-paper-scissors between the Glacier and the Messiah with Billy Jeff officiating to determine the order of the ticket. thats right, you heard me. the only thing left to decide is the order of the names on the Dem side.

BJ: uh, Obama, rock breaks paper.
Mes: I thought rock breaks scissors?
BJ: rock breaks scissors and paper, dumbass.

with apologies to Kramer on Seinfeld.

DrW on February 5, 2008 at 5:47 PM

Where’s the good news? We want Hillary to smoke Obama for three reasons:

1. She’s less liberal
2. She’s more likely to mobilize the “I’m not voting” Republicans
3. I don’t trust Maverick to have what it takes to crush Obama beneath his steel toed boot. He’ll just give the same stupid crap about change and bipartisan cooperation only people like Obama better than him so he’ll get his ass kicked.
Bleh.

Darth Executor on February 5, 2008 at 5:58 PM

I relish the thought of young, doe-eyed, naive youngsters’ gaped-open mouths when Shrillary is announced as the democrat nominee because of the super delegates, especially If Obama gets more of the popular vote overall. PLEASE LET THIS HAPPEN!

SouthernGent on February 5, 2008 at 6:00 PM

“This generation of Americans has already had enough. More than enough of war, hate and oppression.” -JFK

Never heard that speech before, is it famous? JFK signals American exhaustion and then conflates war (in the abstract) with hate and oppression. An interesting link in the evolution of liberalism.

aengus on February 5, 2008 at 6:51 PM

The producers of that video are so stupid it almost beggers belief.

I mean, did they not listen to President John F. Kennedy? He was more than willing to respond to attacks on the American people and prevent further attacks if necessary.

On the other hand, it made me like Obama more.

Christoph on February 6, 2008 at 12:09 PM

*beggars

Christoph on February 6, 2008 at 12:11 PM