California: McCain 39, Romney 36, Huckabee 9; Update: “California means everything”

posted at 4:25 pm on February 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Within the margin of error but in line with the RCP average and Rasmussen. Again, Cali awards delegates proportionally so the only suspense is whether Mitt earns bragging rights to having won the popular vote in the country’s most populous state. If he gets wiped out elsewhere and pulls the upset on the coast, is that enough Mitt-mentum to make him go forward? I’m guessing no, in which case … SECOND LOOK AT HUCKABEE!

No, no. There shall be no second look at Huckabee.

Maverick’s ahead in the only major contested winner-take-all state, too, although that’s also within the margin. Exit question: Is there any bright spot in this otherwise bleak hour? There is indeed, although that poll’s very much an outlier. And note well this ominous trend. There’s one candidate above all others who’s known for bringing out new voters and independents, and it ain’t Hillary Clinton:

Election officials expect a high turnout, and Democratic leaders say voters are enthusiastic about their choices.

A record number of new voters — almost 151,000 — registered as Democrats in the final 45 days of eligibility for Tuesday’s election, party officials say.

“We have not seen this level of enthusiasm in a presidential primary in decades,” said California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres. Independent voters, who make up nearly 20% of the electorate, also can vote in the Democratic primary if they request a ballot.

The GOP primary is closed which means those indies have only one place to go. Gulp.

Update: Ah, I neglected to compare this to the last Survey USA poll of California taken January 28. Big jump for Romney. There’s definitely Mitt-mentum out there, but maybe not enough time.

Update: Byron York leads with optimism but just keep reading, all the way down. Sounds to me like Mitt needs a surprise in California and in at least one additional state to suggest some sort of grassroots McCain backlash.

“The question in my mind is whether this is the beginning of the coalescing of the conservative movement against McCain, or whether it is something less than that,” the first Romney aide tells me. “Is he going forward on the basis of a conservative wave, although at the 11th hour and 59th minute?” If Romney believes there is such a conservative wave, he will certainly keep on.

And if Romney does keep on — yet another aide tells me “We’re already looking at February 9, February 12, and February 15” — that will give McCain’s opponents in the conservative world more time to press their case. “There is an increasing sense of urgency among conservatives that has led them to rally toward Romney, in that he would be a better standard bearer for the party on issues that are important to conservatives,” the aide says.

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