Unconfirmed exit polls: McCain 34.3, Mitt 32.6, Rudy 15.3; Update: Big conservative turnout; Update: 43% say Crist endorsement mattered
posted at 6:03 pm on January 29, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Geraghty’s got ‘em. Absentee ballots aren’t included but I can’t think of a reason why they’d break dramatically differently, unless Rudy does a few points better from people who mailed theirs in when he was still riding reasonably high. InTrade’s already rocketing on the news but take that for the nothing it’s worth.
Ominously for Mitt, immigration seems not to have figured heavily.
We stand before the abyss, my friends, as VDH sounds the terrible cry: SECOND LOOK AT McCAIN!
Update: Fox is running demographic exit polls now. McCain wins among seniors and veterans — but only by a point(!) — and crushes Giuliani among Hispanics, 50-26. Romney wins on immigration, 45-26, but on the key issue, the economy, McCain wins by four.
Mitt crushes Huckabee among evangelicals.
Update: Looky.
Interesting. I’m now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote (this is from the source who believed the numbers were the first wave) and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent. Giuliani is described as “far behind.”
Why would absentees differ so much?
Update: Romney had better win because if Maverick scores a closed primary with conservative turnout unusually high, the “base hates McCain” narrative is in trouble for Super Tuesday.
Update: More exits from Fox. The Crist endorsement helped McCain, late deciders split almost evenly, 37-36 for Mitt. A plurality prefer McCain to Romney as commander in chief, 41-28. And most interesting: Rudy’s supporters say Romney was their second choice by a margin of three points over McCain.
Update: Dean Barnett e-mails to say that Geraghty’s numbers do include the absentees, which makes things grimmer for Mitt.
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Relax, we will probably all be here tonight at 9pm watching as the results trickle in.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 6:47 PM
I may have to eat my words but I think Mitt will win by several % points…
kcd on January 29, 2008 at 6:47 PM
The Paul guys are going berserk as this news breaks…they’re talking of amping up the fight against us “sheep”…They truly feel that if Ron Paul doesn’t win, it’s a conspiracy, and the NWO moves on…
JetBoy on January 29, 2008 at 6:47 PM
Ze unchosen one: Here’s a hint: it’s “whores”, not “Hoars”. Hoars is probably some hoarfrost, or something quite cold. Whores is what McCain is to the Democratic party: he’ll turn tricks with them all night long.
Vanceone on January 29, 2008 at 6:48 PM
It is a CLOSED primary. That was at one precinct. Who knows what goes on in Broward county!! We have to hope that this wasn’t widespread.
From Florida’s Division of Elections site:
I would hope someone would be in trouble, but I won’t hold my breath.
INC on January 29, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Just out of curiosity, are there any numbers for Fred! since he was still on the ballot?
JamesLee on January 29, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Mitt +8
captivated_dem on January 29, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Vanceone-
“Hoars” means: old and grey-haired ones.
It’s an obsolete and hoary word.
profitsbeard on January 29, 2008 at 6:50 PM
No Silver medals in Florida.
Winner takes all.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 6:50 PM
Everyone has to admit that after South Carolina in 2000, Mac learned how to play dirty. That two pronged death blow Saturday of the Crist Endorsement and stretching Mitt’s withdrawal words was one of the best late election hatchet jobs I’ve seen in a long time. Beautiful work.
THE CHOSEN ONE on January 29, 2008 at 6:50 PM
Dude, I think the word you are looking for is WHORE. If you have a HOAR, you’re having a significant problem with humidity and cold (see link), and they need to pass the plate to buy a heater… ;)
SkinnerVic on January 29, 2008 at 6:50 PM
We don’t want his mom to have to eat her words.
OneGyT on January 29, 2008 at 6:50 PM
Mitt by 1.0006 % as of 4 a.m. tomorrow.
profitsbeard on January 29, 2008 at 6:51 PM
Thanks for the grammer lessons. Are you chess champion as well and lead hall monitor?
THE CHOSEN ONE on January 29, 2008 at 6:51 PM
I dont know if you can enforce that because isnt it a closed primary based on party ? I mean if the republican party closes its primary because of Florida moving up its election then it isnt a violation of Florida election laws if the Primary is held acccording to Florida state laws ?
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 6:52 PM
That came straight from a Mitt Fax-machine right?
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 6:52 PM
How much did he pay you to run with it?
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 6:52 PM
They should still turn up the heat in the church though. Seniors get chilled easily.
Deety on January 29, 2008 at 6:52 PM
Those exit polls sure are reliable.. LOL
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 6:53 PM
The Fredheads say GO MITT! *sigh*
Mojave Mark on January 29, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Mark Halperin:
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 6:57 PM
William Amos,
I’m not an attorney, but my guess is that the RNC penalty/primary date would never trump the law on who can vote.
MM had a link to a Collier County citing the FL Statute:
INC on January 29, 2008 at 6:58 PM
I think, contra Mr. Hanson, that the polarization argument should NOT be made on behalf of McCain, given the behavior of him and his poodle Lindsey Graham.
Mark V. on January 29, 2008 at 6:58 PM
I agree with Hollowpoint on this one, it’s kind of interesting to sit back and watch this play out.
I do wish I still had a dog in this fight, but sadly, my dog sat down at the beginning of the second round and started licking his nuts.
ChrisM on January 29, 2008 at 7:00 PM
I do not hate anyone. But my dislike for McCain is intense.
Zorro on January 29, 2008 at 7:00 PM
I hate to say it but a “Stop the candidate” movement is always by someone who is behind.
Moderates have Hijacked this party and are taking it for a ride. Fred should have been the clear winner but we keep drifting even more to the center with each vote.
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:00 PM
Most polls are now closed.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 7:01 PM
In the sense that they’re showing a very close race between Romney and McCain, with Rudy a distant third- yes they are reliable.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 7:01 PM
Here online from the state site: The 2007 Florida Statutes
INC on January 29, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Well the point I was making is if someone wanted to hold a person guilty of voter fraud. Saying people have to vote republican is not the same as saying only republicans can vote.
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:04 PM
Thank you. In the pan handle too?
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:04 PM
Not till 8 Pm eastern
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:05 PM
Nope. Those close at 8. Should be noted that all in line by the poll’s “closing” time, will be allowed to vote. If there are 10,000 people in line at a precinct before 7pm in most of the state, they’d all be allowed to vote.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 7:05 PM
With my luck, that would be my precinct and I would be at the end of the line!
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Could be the start of major conservative effort trying to stop McCain in favor of Romney.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 6:57 PM
What do you call the last two month, pal?
THE CHOSEN ONE on January 29, 2008 at 7:06 PM
hanging chads…
The Race Card on January 29, 2008 at 7:08 PM
First of all, I’m not “pal”. Second of all, the past two months were mostly grassroot and talk radio efforts. We’re now talking about a six-figure or more budget in advertising on a conservative outlet to go after McCain – from one source alone.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 7:08 PM
I am both a navy veteran and a senior and I would never vote or support John McCain. I like him as a person but he scares me as a potential president. He has a bad temper and lately he plays very dirty. Also, sometimes he comes down on the totally wrong side of a simple issue. We can only hope the the absentee votes are more sensible than todays so far.
duff65 on January 29, 2008 at 7:09 PM
From Mark Halprin:
FOX NEWS EXIT POLL RESULTS
Senior Citizens– McCain 40, Romney 31, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 7
Veterans– McCain 37, Romney 36, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 8
Hispanics– McCain 50, Giuliani 26, Romney 16, Huckabee 5
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:09 PM
FNC reports that Rudy voters would go Romney over McCain if Rudy wasn’t on the ballot. Romney had a 3% advantage.
malan89 on January 29, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Demographic Data… [Rich Lowry]
…in exits, here.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Fox: Rudy supporters break more for Romney than McCain. Conservatives and those concerned with illegal immigration decidedly going for Mitt so far.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Hope he’s not serious, but Mark Levin just said that if McCain wins tonight in Florida, he’s not coming back to his radio show.
IrishEi on January 29, 2008 at 7:10 PM
McCain is claiming that all the nastiness began with Mitt. He said something like, there has been no nastiness with Huck, with Paul, with Rudy – it’s all Mitt’s fault.
Gosh, wonder why that is? Kiss Kiss.
It’s getting to be a tossup who I loathe more – McCain or Huck.
Buy Danish on January 29, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Notice how you never got ANY early vote exit polls..
Because RUDY would have won those, and it would have been good new for him..
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 7:10 PM
You boys just aint got the pule you used to.
THE CHOSEN ONE on January 29, 2008 at 7:10 PM
I was for Fred, but I did my part and filled in the line for Romney. My buddies that were for Fred all went with Romney as well. McCain was not a consideration at all. I had dinner with my wife at Chili’s and the waitress voted for Romney. According to my exit polling, everyone voted for Romney so we’re all good.
Thanks,
Michael Barone
Weber48IDA on January 29, 2008 at 7:11 PM
Shepard Smith is extremely annoying. How much makeup does he wear? I’ll have to turn back at 8pm.
SouthernGent on January 29, 2008 at 7:11 PM
Ah, the SOB got me! He’s not going anywhere.
IrishEi on January 29, 2008 at 7:12 PM
If McCain wins tonight then the Western World is sunk. Amnesty will destroy this country and the US is the last, best hope for civilization. McCain actually has agents of foreign governments working in his campaign.
echosyst on January 29, 2008 at 7:12 PM
Attorney Genereal Schwarzenegger.
THE CHOSEN ONE on January 29, 2008 at 7:12 PM
William Amos,
I don’t know if we’re talking at cross purposes or not.
The Indie who voted on an R ballot broke the law, as did the poll workers, and especially whoever was taking authority into their hands to tell them this.
This is Florida law. It wasn’t decided by the R party or the D party, it is one of the Statutes. Moving the primary around may make the RNC or the DNC mad, but all they can do is squabble about whether the delegates are seated at the convention.
I don’t think the law is dependent at all on whether the RNC or DNC don’t like the date of the election. You are supposed to obey the law whenever you vote.
INC on January 29, 2008 at 7:12 PM
Republicans will LOSE this election and in MAJOR fashion.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 7:13 PM
BTW is this snot worthy stuff from MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22896871/
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:13 PM
From the last update -
Makes sense to me. Despite claims to the contrary, Rudy is far more conservative than McCain.
Buy Danish on January 29, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Man, I am really torn here.
I’m rooting for chaos, discontent and gnashing of teeth. That means Romney would have to win, because if McCain wins, he’s probably got a lock and we might not get the brokered convention I’d like to see.
On the other hand, there would be something darkly satisfying in seeing Mitt lose after all the flip-flopping, personal millions spent and shameless pandering done.
On the… err… third hand, if McCain wins, I’m going to suddenly have a lot of company in the “stay home or vote 3rd party” camp I’ve been in for a while.
See- I can be optimistic too.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 7:14 PM
If McCain wins, I am buying more guns and looking for real estate in Montana. Do those steel building companies make bunkers?
The pain train is coming. Is that a dagger I see before me?
Weber48IDA on January 29, 2008 at 7:15 PM
Kinda defies logic.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:15 PM
If you’re going to make that arguement, you might find better evidence to support it than a whopping 3 point margin.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 7:16 PM
RESULTS COMING IN.
Vizzini on January 29, 2008 at 7:17 PM
This Rudy supporter will NEVER vote for Romney!
He is exactly what we fought against in 2004 in john f’n kerry without the fake medals with the added bonus of his use of the Clinton Dictionary!
He lies to much, I cannot in good conscience vote for a know pathological liar.
Read my lips, “NOT GONNA DO IT”
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 7:17 PM
Prepare yourselves for a Clinton stomp tonight. And she’ll get those delegates, I gerronT.
Vizzini on January 29, 2008 at 7:18 PM
Wonder if it is the early voting results?
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:18 PM
RON PAUL WINS!
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:19 PM
I think the election is close enough that it doesnt matter if early results come in. Everyone knows its important
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:19 PM
McCain’s appeal to the illegal voter bloc appears to have worked.
Let’s hope there are still enough legals left in Florida to counteract the shamnesty strategy.
He makes weasels look honorable.
profitsbeard on January 29, 2008 at 7:20 PM
No.. Many FredHeads say… “ImaCouchPotatoe” come Election Day. “You re getting the Government You Deserve” and this time it is in the form of an old broken down Liberal pretending to be a Conservative and No one is stopping him.. The Fix is In.. Remove God from Our Nation and He Removes His Blessings. You can deny it all you like.. but all one has to do is see where we’ve come and what we are willing to do… soon we will be told to hold our nose for McCain on this board.. just a matter of time. Gods justice is Perfect and Fair. For how many years have we let our Government and polticians murder the unborn? Terri Schaivo just became a statistic..Gay Behavior is acceptable and not a Sin… and such is taught to our children in Public Schools which we all support with our hard earned dollars.. the list goes on..
LibsREvilDoers on January 29, 2008 at 7:20 PM
And after 2000, I really don’t think Floridians should take anything for granted at the polls. If they are open, then vote!
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 7:21 PM
BUT THE NWO BILDERBERGERS CONSPIRED WITH DIEBOLD TO RIG THE ELECTION!
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 7:21 PM
No Joe [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Lieberman says he’s been there, done that, won’t be McCain’s veep.
01/29 07:20 PM
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:21 PM
You do realize you’re implying that bloc is voting Republican…
Vizzini on January 29, 2008 at 7:23 PM
I like how the Fox News website has a large picture of the candidates and they’re all smiling but Mitt. Their ongoing bias against Mitt is ridiculous and definitely hasn’t gone unnoticed.
TexasBella on January 29, 2008 at 7:23 PM
Here you go:
Try not to break the site. :-)
INC on January 29, 2008 at 7:25 PM
I’m also hearing Fox is reporting McCain is beating Romney by 4% among voters who said the economy was the most important issue to them. UPDATE: Here’s the link. That makes things very interesting. – TOM BEVAN
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Crawl back in your hole, televangelist.
peski on January 29, 2008 at 7:26 PM
armegeddon is near!!
therightwinger on January 29, 2008 at 7:28 PM
They voted for the same McCain that admitted in a debate that he doesn’t know much about the economy?
Gah!
:bangs head on wall:
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 7:28 PM
No joke. This morning they had nice serious looking pictures of everyone but Mitt, for whom they had a big, goofy grinning picture. So blatant.
NTWR on January 29, 2008 at 7:28 PM
This link has higher total votes so far than Fox, with Mitt ahead for now.
mikeyboss on January 29, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Click on Republican Primary.
Once you’re there click on U.S. President to get the counties.
Here are some maps. The third and fourth give you the county names so you know where the votes are coming from.
INC on January 29, 2008 at 7:28 PM
STFU, FOX News boiled this down to a 2 person race to HELP Willard!
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Recount. Where is James Baker when we need him? Stop the count! Stop the count!
THE CHOSEN ONE on January 29, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Bull. Crap.
NTWR on January 29, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Blatant? Wonder which candidate didnt even have his picture listed.. Oh yah. Paul
offroadaz on January 29, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Look at that… it’s a 30/30 tie so far between Maverick and Mitt.
CliffHanger on January 29, 2008 at 7:29 PM
The link I gave you is from the Florida Division of Elections page. I don’t know about the number lag. It does say:
If you get impatient with the news and wonder what’s going on, I wanted to let you know about this.
INC on January 29, 2008 at 7:30 PM
darn it I cant seem to post
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:30 PM
Kinda fits well with your sig. :)
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 7:31 PM
Yeah and they didn’t even allow my candidate (Hunter) into their debate.
NTWR on January 29, 2008 at 7:31 PM
I forgot to tell you that when you refresh the page, you will have to click to get back into it.
INC on January 29, 2008 at 7:32 PM
CNN has a “Draft Bloomberg” banner up on there site.
I think I really am going to be sick this november
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:32 PM
I’ll probably end up with the Brown Bottle Flu for a month at least.
NTWR on January 29, 2008 at 7:33 PM
You mean like how every sane and informed observer has recognized this to be a two man race?
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 7:33 PM
I wish Fred would beat out Ron Paul. Or Maybe I just wish fred would beat UP ron paul
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 7:34 PM
You could cut the tension wit a knife.
THE CHOSEN ONE on January 29, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Heh…Mitt just took the lead…exciting!
SouthernGent on January 29, 2008 at 7:35 PM
What did he lie about? Specifically with quotes.
McCain’s lies are abundant.
alteredbeat on January 29, 2008 at 7:35 PM
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