Unconfirmed exit polls: McCain 34.3, Mitt 32.6, Rudy 15.3; Update: Big conservative turnout; Update: 43% say Crist endorsement mattered

posted at 6:03 pm on January 29, 2008 by Allahpundit

Geraghty’s got ‘em. Absentee ballots aren’t included but I can’t think of a reason why they’d break dramatically differently, unless Rudy does a few points better from people who mailed theirs in when he was still riding reasonably high. InTrade’s already rocketing on the news but take that for the nothing it’s worth.

Ominously for Mitt, immigration seems not to have figured heavily.

We stand before the abyss, my friends, as VDH sounds the terrible cry: SECOND LOOK AT McCAIN!

Update: Fox is running demographic exit polls now. McCain wins among seniors and veterans — but only by a point(!) — and crushes Giuliani among Hispanics, 50-26. Romney wins on immigration, 45-26, but on the key issue, the economy, McCain wins by four.

Mitt crushes Huckabee among evangelicals.

Update: Looky.

Interesting. I’m now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote (this is from the source who believed the numbers were the first wave) and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent. Giuliani is described as “far behind.”

Why would absentees differ so much?

Update: Romney had better win because if Maverick scores a closed primary with conservative turnout unusually high, the “base hates McCain” narrative is in trouble for Super Tuesday.

Update: More exits from Fox. The Crist endorsement helped McCain, late deciders split almost evenly, 37-36 for Mitt. A plurality prefer McCain to Romney as commander in chief, 41-28. And most interesting: Rudy’s supporters say Romney was their second choice by a margin of three points over McCain.

Update: Dean Barnett e-mails to say that Geraghty’s numbers do include the absentees, which makes things grimmer for Mitt.


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41% McCain by 28,000

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:42 PM

I can’t believe that people concerned with the economy voted for McCain of all people. Unbelievable

I can’t believe that people concerned about anything voted for McCain. It is a sad view of the average voter.

duff65 on January 29, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Here’s the Giuliani endorsement link.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 8:43 PM

Yep. THATCLOSE. It’d be almost painful to think that a few throwaway votes for Fred cost Romney the win tonight….

Always Right on January 29, 2008 at 8:42 PM

As you said, they all wouldn’t have gone to Romney. Some were probably absentee votes from a couple weeks ago, and others were probably cast by those who weren’t going to vote for any of the other candidates.

Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 8:44 PM

I thinnk votes are confused on what conservative really means

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:44 PM

I dont think I can take ten more months of arrogant John McCain puking all over conservative Republicans and then asking us for our votes in November.

This is gonna be a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG campaign….

Always Right on January 29, 2008 at 8:45 PM

Damn Miami dade is just not coming in its been over 20 minutes since the last update

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:45 PM

Then I turn around and see Hillary IceQueen on my TV screen and I realize there’s someone I hate even more than I hate Captain McCain….

Always Right on January 29, 2008 at 8:46 PM

I refuse to vote for any candidate endorsed by Juan Hernandez. McCain can have my vote when he peels it from my cold, dead hand.

fourstringfuror on January 29, 2008 at 8:47 PM

44% McCain by 35000

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:47 PM

Miami-Dade
updated 1 minute ago 31% reporting
McCain 38,030 46%
Giuliani 26,046 32%
Romney 11,062 13%

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:48 PM

A win in Florida and an endorsement from Giuliani is going to make McCain tough to beat. This really sucks.

OKCubsFan on January 29, 2008 at 8:48 PM

45% McCain by 36,000

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:48 PM

This is beginning to depress me…hopefully the absentees aren’t being counted in some of these counties yet.

SouthernGent on January 29, 2008 at 8:48 PM

It’s all the old losers in Florida voting for one of their own old losers. Nuff said. Next state please.

alteredbeat on January 29, 2008 at 8:49 PM

I guess the only good news is that Huck is coming in 4th and is dead as a candidate

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:51 PM

Can anyone talk me down off the following ledge???

“I can’t vote for McCain, even if it means President Mrs. Clinton…”

seanrobins on January 29, 2008 at 8:51 PM

46% McCain by 40,000

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:53 PM

It’s all the old losers in Florida voting for one of their own old losers. Nuff said. Next state please.

alteredbeat on January 29, 2008 at 8:49 PM

There is no other state before Super Tuesday.

Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 8:55 PM

I guess this means I’m voting for Obama.

p0s3r on January 29, 2008 at 8:55 PM

Grrrrrrrrrr…

cannonball on January 29, 2008 at 8:55 PM

46%reporting

McCain 404,294 35%
Romney 366,298 32%
Giuliani 177,601 16%
Huckabee 153,928 13%

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:56 PM

Miami Dade votes should not be allowed to count in an election that means something. It is like counting votes from the bay area.

duff65 on January 29, 2008 at 8:57 PM

It’s all the old losers in Florida voting for one of their own old losers. Nuff said. Next state please.

alteredbeat on January 29, 2008 at 8:49 PM

There is no other state before Super Tuesday.

Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 8:55 PM

My mistake, Maine votes Feb 1.

Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 8:57 PM

47% reporting

McCain 409,853 35%
Romney 372,111 32%
Giuliani 179,593 15%
Huckabee 156,231 13%

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 8:58 PM

47%reporting

McCain 412,151 35%
Romney 373,956 32%
Giuliani 180,450 15%
Huckabee 157,293 14%

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Giuliani to endorse McCain? Oh, HELL TO THE NO!

SouthernGent on January 29, 2008 at 9:08 PM

Well, we can all skip the lever for President and just vote straight republican for congress…
that is my plan if McAmnesty gets the nomination.

rgranger on January 29, 2008 at 9:09 PM

Giuliani to endorse McCain? Oh, HELL TO THE NO!

If this is true…is there no end to the betrayals that real conservatives must endure in the current Republican Party?

seanrobins on January 29, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Giuliani to endorse McCain? Oh, HELL TO THE NO!

SouthernGent on January 29, 2008 at 9:08 PM

I can’t stand it.

FOX just called it for McCain.

BacaDog on January 29, 2008 at 9:12 PM

Escambia County..omg…for McCain!

I will never, ever vote for McCain. I will write in a vote!

SouthernGent on January 29, 2008 at 9:13 PM

OHNO.. there goes Mort bringing Rush Limbaugh into it again.

More fodder for the show tmw…

Always Right on January 29, 2008 at 9:14 PM

Fox called it.

fourstringfuror on January 29, 2008 at 9:16 PM

This all started when Gingrich caved. My party hasn’t been the same since.

What the hell happened to our nuts?

lodestonejames on January 29, 2008 at 9:16 PM

Here is the latest from the AP… what a pinnacle of journalism . . .

McCain edges Romney to win Fla. primary

By DAVID ESPO and LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writers
2 minutes ago

MIAMI – Sen. John McCain won a breakthrough triumph in the Florida Republican primary Tuesday night, edging past former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and seizing precious campaign momentum for next week’s string of contests across 21 states.

seanrobins on January 29, 2008 at 9:16 PM

Let me at least be honorable and congratulate the winner.

McCain got two key endorsements and went ugly and crude very effectively. I dont like it one bit, but the guy did what it took to win.

Bitter Dregs, indeed, but the guy did kick Mitts butt. I wonder what Mitt will say later tonight. he can try to put a good spin on this for next Tuesday, but it’ll be tough.

Always Right on January 29, 2008 at 9:19 PM

Looks like I’ll load up on the whiskey, beer, guns, ammo, tobacco and head for the ranch, Call me when Hillary’s eight years are over.

jwp1964 on January 29, 2008 at 8:10 PM

You got this backwards. We needed a conservative to win so you could do just that for the next 8 years without interference from anyone, foreign or domestic.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 8:15 PM

I’m stocking up because everything I listed will become illegal to own, possess or consume after the democrat inauguration in 2009. My depression and fear for the future of my country are very significant. Over the past year I’ve also stocked up on gold and silver bullion since the dollar will soon be worthless. I hope I’m wrong, but I think we can expect some old school European socialism from Hillary and her cronies. It really irks me since Europe has seen the light and is moving to less socialism at the exact point where our libs and moderates appear to be willing to go down the old dead end path. Man I’m depressed. I need a beer, a pizza and some adult entertainment (also soon to be illegal,,,exploits women). I’m absolutely shattered!

jwp1964 on January 29, 2008 at 9:19 PM

And just to cap things off, is the self-congradulatory, before-the-fact, “acceptance” by the man whom the Party will expect us to accept as our standardbearer:

“It shows one thing. I’m the conservative leader who can unite the party,” the Arizona senator said in a brief interview with The Associated Press.

You know, I’m sorry as the next guy that john mcCain spent all those years upside-down in the Hanoi Hilton….but enough is enough. He’s got too many screws loose to be that “conservative” standardbearer.

And if Johnny-boy really thinks that he is the “conservative leader who can unite the party,” then he really does need some psychiatric intervention.

seanrobins on January 29, 2008 at 9:21 PM

Interesting developments in the conservative blogosphere. Despite what the electorate seems to be saying, McCain supporters are called idiots and trolls.

Did I hit the HuffPo link by accident?

Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 9:48 PM

First look at the south leaving the union, we’ll just cut Florida off and let it join Cuba or Venezuala.

RJS2

I have a better idea, lets just circumcise it and leave those d**k head RINO’s out in the cold!

Bikerken on January 29, 2008 at 9:53 PM

Here is the latest from the AP… what a pinnacle of journalism . . .

McCain edges Romney to win Fla. primary

By DAVID ESPO and LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writers
2 minutes ago

MIAMI – Sen. John McCain won a breakthrough triumph in the Florida Republican primary Tuesday night, edging past former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and seizing precious campaign momentum for next week’s string of contests across 21 states.
seanrobins on January 29, 2008 at 9:16 PM

What’s wrong with it? Like it or not, that’s a perfectly accurate assessment.

Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 10:51 PM

pwNeD

ThackerAgency on January 30, 2008 at 12:01 AM

If Rudy endorses McCain then we have the comfort in knowing that Rudy isn’t the conservative that he made himself out to be. Either that, or he’s going with the safe bet for a cabinet position if McCain wins and that makes him nothing more than a typical politician.

I want to stop McCain more than I want to see Hillary stopped. At least she’s not a traitor to her party’s principles.

orlandocajun on January 30, 2008 at 6:20 AM

“It shows one thing. I’m the conservative leader who can unite the party,” the Arizona senator said in a brief interview with The Associated Press.

Conservative? I do not think that means what you think it means?

BadBrad on January 30, 2008 at 7:16 AM

People, we are being had, this whole process stinks to high heaven. NOBODY wants this asshole but our system keeps telling us that he is the one we are choosing. Start cleaning your guns folks, there is something wrong in denmark.

Bikerken on January 30, 2008 at 8:02 AM

The RINOs will not receive any support from me. If they choose to destroy this party, the bast–ds are on their own. And for the first time in my life I will pull the lever for a demoncrap for POTUS.
It’s just my way of crapping on the RINOs twice, once by not voting for them, and once more by giving them another vote they must overcome. Pi$$ on em!

leanright on January 30, 2008 at 9:41 AM

And for the first time in my life I will pull the lever for a demoncrap for POTUS.
It’s just my way of crapping on the RINOs twice, once by not voting for them, and once more by giving them another vote they must overcome. Pi$$ on em!

leanright on January 30, 2008 at 9:41 AM

I wouldn’t go that far… I might just vote libertarian… or even for Ron Paul. Now I know he’s technically a RINO… but he’s really a libertarian.

BadBrad on January 30, 2008 at 7:18 PM

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