COURTING VOTERS in Iowa and New Hampshire, last August Sen. Hillary Clinton signed a pledge not to “campaign or participate” in the Michigan or Florida Democratic primaries. She participated in both primaries and is campaigning in Florida. Which proves, again, that Hillary Clinton is a liar…
Clinton coldly and knowingly lied to New Hampshire and Iowa. Her promise was not a vague statement. It was a signed pledge with a clear and unequivocal meaning.
She signed it thinking that keeping the other candidates out of Michigan and Florida was to her advantage, but knowing she would break it if that proved beneficial later on. It did, and she did.
New Hampshire voters, you were played for suckers.
And so they were! Although no story of Clintonian malfeasance is complete without the inevitable semantic parsing, so here you go: Team Glacier informs us that no, the events she held over the weekend don’t constitute “campaigning” because they were (a) fundraisers and (b) closed to the public. Even though they were also (c) duly covered by the local press, which is where most of the vote potential is anyway.
The kicker? Geraghty’s been gaming out Super Ultra Mega Tuesday and concludes that Michigan’s and Florida’s stripped delegates could be the margin of victory for the nomination. This imperfect but useful mega-snapshot bears him out, predicting based on current polls that she’ll finish with 1,605 to Obama’s 1,032, with 2,025 needed to win — assuming Michigan and Florida aren’t counted. They’re worth 366 combined, which puts her on the cusp of clinching if added to her total. The polls haven’t yet accounted for the impact of Teddy’s endorsement, though, so the true margin between her and Obama may be tighter than this indicates, making those delegates even more important and raising the syrupy sweet prospect of a Democratic “selected, not elected” meltdown this summer. Imagine: the DNC reverses itself and throws the Florida and Michigan delegates to Hillary; Obama’s people file suit and launch a media war aimed at persuading her superdelegates (who can vote for anyone regardless of their state’s primary results) to punish her by switching to the candidate who kept his pledge; whereupon civil war erupts and the supporters of whoever loses stay home in November out of spite. A golden age looms for the conservative blogosphere, my friends. Keep hope alive.
I’m woozy at the (admittedly unlikely) prospect of it. While I recover, watch this and see if you can figure out who she’s talking about.
Update: Awe. Some.
Update: Dave Weigel at Reason catches me napping:
Great post on that (in the “Hillary played you for suckers” post) but you say Hillary will add the 366 Florida and Michigan delegates to her total. She won 55% of the delegates in Michigan and will get as many in Florida, give or take 5 percent. Obama will get his Florida delegates, Edwards will get his, and “Uncommitted” will get his from Michigan – all, presumably, will go to Obama.
So it’s a little less likely that Clinton could swing the thing by cheating on FL and MI. Assuming she gets the same 55% in Florida that she got in Michigan she’ll get 172 committed delegates to the 141 that go to the other candidates: a 31 delegate advantage. (I’m counting the delegates who would have been assigned on primary day, not counting the extras who’ll be decided by the state party, or the superdelegates.) Might be more, might be less
Yep, sloppy on my part. Apologies for the error.