Florida: Predictions
posted at 9:26 am on January 29, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Get ‘em in now. How close is it? Dude. Mitt has the 10-to-1 ad advantage, Maverick has the endorsements. Verdict: Rudy, baby, in an upset! No, no, kidding. I’ll pick McCain, for no better reason than that the campaign has seemed to revolve entirely around him for the past week. Or, if that’s not good enough, try this:
[E]arly voting in Florida began January 14, and Thompson departed the race on January 22. There’s about a week’s worth of Thompson votes in there that might have gone for another GOP candidate.
“Another GOP candidate” being, of course, Mitt. As for the mayor, Riehl sends word that he’s already in parting gift mode vis-a-vis his staffers. Portrait of a man looking for the exit:
When Mr. Giuliani wandered back to take a few questions, some of them had a fairly bearish bent. Asked what he would do the day after the primary, Mr. Giuliani said: “When it’s Wednesday morning, we’ll make a decision. The reality is the voting hasn’t even started yet, at least the Jan. 29 voting hasn’t started yet. I believe we’re going to win.”
Money appears to be in short supply. The campaign tried to hoard its cash during the earlier contests, in the hope that it would be able to overwhelm its exhausted rivals once they arrived here with their coffers depleted. That does not seem to have worked out as planned. As loss after loss made fund-raising more challenging — Mr. Giuliani finished behind Representative Ron Paul of Texas in all of the early contests except New Hampshire — Mr. McCain, of Arizona, saw his fund-raising improve after he won in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And Mr. Romney started to invest heavily in Florida after his victory in Michigan; senior Giuliani campaign aides, meanwhile, have agreed to work without pay.
There’s a debate tomorrow night so he’s not kidding about having to decide tomorrow morning. Exit question: Can it really be true? “This is typical of the hard Right. It’s what they do. They don’t understand how to win elections, because Rush Limbaugh isn’t interested in electing a president. These people don’t care. They’re interested in listenership; it’s not the same thing.”
Update: Another reason for Rudy to get out quick rather than go to New York and be humiliated: He’s got the Giuliani brand to think about.
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The prevote helps Giuilani and whomever he endorces gets his delegates so watch for who rudy endorses after he drops out
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 1:53 PM
I don’t know. I think it will be Mitt by a nose.
It will be close though, if the polls are worth anything anymore.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Not if he “releases” them.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Rudy not make a deal with his delegates ? Not likely
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 1:55 PM
If he doesn’t release them, then they are committed to vote for him, not anyone else, on the first ballot.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 1:56 PM
Do you deny that his willingness to work behind the scenes with Teddy et al is an indication of where his true allegiance lies?
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 1:58 PM
BTW some news for Mitt backers that is good. Late trend is breaking for Mitt
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/florida_republican_endgame.php
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 1:58 PM
McLiar is both an insider and a Maverick.
The thing about being a Maverick is that you don’t adhere to established positions.
But I would say that he is an insider by being in Washington for too long. And he is a Maverick because he clearly files for elections in the wrong party.
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 2:01 PM
Which is my point he can edorse someone and ask them to vote for whom he endorsed. They dont have to do that but it would be something rudy can deal
And will add about above we could see a virtual dead even Florida election. If its mostly a tie then isnt decisive for anyone. THe only real progress we could see today is the end of Rudy and Huck. And neither of those bodes well for Mitt.
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 2:01 PM
Riiigghhttt…McCain is a clandestine socialist and has been voting conservatively for all these years just to fool us all!
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Sure he can deal it, but they are not bound to vote the way Rudy wishes.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Get ready to hold your nose in the general boys and girls. McCain wins in a squeaker that will propel him to the eventual nomination.
chief on January 29, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Riiigghhttt…McCain is a clandestine socialist
and has been voting conservatively for all these years just to fool us all!bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 2:02 PM
There, fixed it.
kcd on January 29, 2008 at 2:04 PM
I’m not holding my nose at all. If McCain is the nominee I am writing in my vote for Fred!
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Mcguyver on January 29, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Hummm, that is quite a post.
PrettyD_Vicious on January 29, 2008 at 2:06 PM
McCain-Feingold? Judges? Immigration? Taxes?
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Those are conservative votes?
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Most of the Fredheads I know have decided to hold their nose and vote for Mitt Romney.
Joshua P. Allem on January 29, 2008 at 2:10 PM
BTW is this today from Rasmussen. Rudy voters like Mitt and huck voters like McCain
Rasmussen end game
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Well, he fooled me right up until the Keating 5. His attempt to portray opponents of shamnesty as just “loud folks” really had nothing to do with it, nor did his vote against the tax cuts which he has now decided was because he also wanted spending cuts and couldn’t get them in the bill.(wink, nudge)
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 2:13 PM
BTW isnt florida today for the dems ? Hillary was up big in their race
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 2:16 PM
I`ll say Mitt, since it`s a closed primary and McCain hasn`t face a closed primary yet (I don`t think).
ThePrez on January 29, 2008 at 2:18 PM
I find that an interesting tidbit regarding McCain’s support. He has to have independent voters to win. This begs the question, who are the 47% “non-conservative” voters participating in a Republican primary?
BacaDog on January 29, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Yep, both parties vote today. No delegates up for grabs for Dems, though.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 2:21 PM
Another question to ponder for those so inclined to make predictions. There is so much talk about “deals” being made for candidates to support others when they drop out. (e.g. Edwards to support Obama in exchange for the AG job if Obama wins, Huckabee for McCain in exchange for the VP slot).
It is so clear that the majority of the current National GOP Washington insiders are behind McCain and hate Romney, so they won’t deal with him. But, Giuliani is also NOT of Washington….so, my question is…since I really can’t see a Romney-Giuliani ticket (two Northerners, etc.), what can Romney “promise” Giuliani in exchange for his endorsement? Would Giuliani accept a promise of the AG job in a Romney administration? Is that enough? Maybe with the added enticement of an elevation to the SCOTUS in maybe the 2nd or 3rd likely justiceship the next POTUS will select? If you aren’t going to be President, being on SCOTUS is a pretty darn attractive offer.
I want Romney-Thompson, which handles the North-South ticket thing, and then Duncan Hunter as SecDef, and John Bolton as SoS. Am I getting too greedy?
scott on January 29, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Still though a hillary win would be something she can crow (Or screech) about
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 2:26 PM
I don’t think you are being greedy. You just want leadership that reflect conservative principles.
But I would be more than thrilled with just the Romney-Thompson part of that lineup.
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 2:28 PM
Dead on! Don’t know what parallel universe bnelson44’s been living in, but if Juan McCain’s about to be elected Pres. it’d be nice to move to that dimension so we actually get a conservative in the White House.
The Ritz on January 29, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Let me gently fix that for you:
McCain dictated, sponsored, revived, pushed, re-revived, and deviously re-wrote (2006: 90 day waiting period; 2007: one business day waiting period for Z visa reward) that despicable shamnety bill.
And his fellow campaigner Graham called American citizens bigots in front of the racist La Raza panderfest.
McLettuce?? NEVER!
fred5678 on January 29, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I thought ALL of Florida’s delegates went to whoever won the state; that they were not divided up in proportion to how the vote was split. Thus giving Giuliani no FL delegate to barter with.
Amerpundit, can you shed any light on this?
infidel2 on January 29, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Speaking of predictions, join “Rasmussen Markets” and try your hand at predicting this stuff in my “Right Blog League.” It’s free. Will post this again later for those online during the evenings.
Vizzini on January 29, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Very true. And I’m sure she will, too.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 2:33 PM
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Amerpundit on his blog states.
infidel2 on January 29, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Go Rudy!
We Win They Lose!
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Surpised by all the confusion here on Florida’s winner take all primary.
fred5678 on January 29, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Yes, as you noted from my site, Florida is a “winner takes all” state. If Giuliani loses the state, and drops out, he’ll have no delegates to hand-off to someone else.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 2:38 PM
BTW does a High voter turn out help Mitt or McCain ? Is arguments both ways
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Go Rudy!
He Loses Hillary gets Elected.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Infidel2: I guess that person would get the 1 or so delegates Giuliani has so far, but, what I think COULD turn out to matter is the liklihood that all the penalties levied by the DNC and RNC against the states are reversed. It is not difficult to see a “let all the votes count” or “no delegate is illegal” wave coming over the conventions. In THAT case, FL reverts back to proportional delegates, so, Giuliani could have some.
I tended to think this was a long shot, until Hillary has been campaigning in FL recently. She is angling for exactly that. If the DNC reverses and lets the Dems get their delegates back, then the RNC will fee pressure to reverse also…
Just my thoughts..
sdg
scott on January 29, 2008 at 2:44 PM
There was some confusion at the top of pg. 3. I remembered accurately, but figured I should request verification since I didn’t want go look it up. Of course, I couldn’t help myself and looked it up anyways.
infidel2 on January 29, 2008 at 2:45 PM
If the RNC decides not the punish Florida, state chair Jim Greer could, I assume, go back to the proportional. I’m not sure the likelihood of that happening, considering there will be opposition from whoever loses on the Dem side and whoever wins on the Republican side.
I wish he had one delegate. Not a single one yet, according to Politico.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 2:49 PM
Sure! They are. Give or take ten or twelve points.
argos on January 29, 2008 at 2:53 PM
I dont know who the nominee is going to be in November but I do know I wont be very enthusiastic about him.
Is weakest feild we have had in decades.
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 2:58 PM
And what brave little soldiers they are!
argos on January 29, 2008 at 3:02 PM
Since Rudy can’t even get any support from the base, what makes you think he is viable enough to defeat Hillary in a general? The hatred of Hillary? Heck, EVERY rep candidate has that going for him.
csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 3:09 PM
But at least we won’t be tearing ourselves apart trying to choose between race and gender.
Go Mitt!!
argos on January 29, 2008 at 3:09 PM
True. Mitt isnt a conservative but at least he isnt a liberal.
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Thanks to you snobbish McCain supporters and shills:
Via Ace…
Thanks to you McCain supporters, you pompous jerks, we now know how to treat others who have less “intelligent” ideas.
Screw you.
Mcguyver on January 29, 2008 at 3:14 PM
Which of Mitt’s proposed/stated policies aren’t conservative enough for you?
argos on January 29, 2008 at 3:17 PM
In fairness Santorum is angling for a position in a mitt administration (VP ?) so I have some doubts about him right now.
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Nah. In the end, it was his stance on abortion that doomed his campaign. I guess he and Ted are not to be trusted on that. Oh well. Here’s another vote for McCain when Rudy gets out.
Big S on January 29, 2008 at 3:18 PM
My Cheif issue is the WOT and Mitt is weak there. And Massachusetts isnt know for electing conservatives to office Mitt is a bit more moderate than he lets on.
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 3:18 PM
if you have to hold your nose voting for Mitt, what does one do if he has to vote for McCain
full body condom?
windansea on January 29, 2008 at 3:20 PM
PS I predict a McCain win
I’m usually wrong about these things
windansea on January 29, 2008 at 3:21 PM
His stance on abortion would not have killed him if he was forced to engage it more by campaigning in the early primary states. His main problem is that he wasn’t even seen as a contender because he skipped the early races, his actual positions didn’t matter that much.
ninjapirate on January 29, 2008 at 3:22 PM
I have already sent in my absentee ballot in CA. Even my wife and mother in law have already voted for Rudy.
Who do I hope will now get the nomination?
I’m conflicted. Policy-wise, Mitt is better than McCain. But I, like many others, simply get a bad used car salesman feeling from Mitt. McCain is, if nothing else, authentic. I’m a big believer in character and authenticity. (That is why I despised Fred in spite of his near perfect rhetoric) Rudy apparently had too much character and was too authentic, but Mitt is a popular-political-winds-policy-spewing-robot. McCain, no matter how much he knows it will piss us off, will do what he thinks is right. That takes character that I respect. Policy-wise, I’m not a big fan, but I think I’d rather have McCain as CinC.
Plus, I can see Rudy agreeing to serve in a McCain administration (VP, AG) but not in a Mitt administration. No one likes Mitt, or so I’m told.
Ideally, Rudy as VP and longevity skips a generation.
tommylotto on January 29, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Predictions
–
McCain wins Flordia, followed by Giuliani (boosted by early voting), then Romney in third
–
McCain sweeps to the GOP nomination on the strength of his Florida victory
–
Hillary sweeps to the Democratic nomination
–
During the debates in October, McCain goes senile and starts asking where he is and who am I. Hillary wins the presidency. After taking office she declares martial law, recognizes Castro in Cuba and the Iran regime in Teheran. Al Qaeda takes over Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Syria. Hillary responds with pinprick strikes. Domestically, the economy is crushed under the huge tax burden. Medicine is socialized in the US and, in search of good health care, Americans start flying to Cuba. Limbaugh, Hannity, Ingraham, etc, are all thrown in prison for violations of McCain-Feingold and the Fairness Doctrine. All computers and books must be registered with the government. All privately owned guns are seized and melted down. The pornification of American culture is complete. On the plus side, global warming is halted.
indythinker on January 29, 2008 at 3:24 PM
yeah, lets run some geezers vs the Obominator!!
windansea on January 29, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I take that back, Rudy is not really a geezer
windansea on January 29, 2008 at 3:26 PM
Maybe, but I think he might be a better fit for some out-of-line agency like the State Department, CIA, or something like that. Or maybe Clinton will win and he can run as a Hillary slayer and clean-up guy in 2012.
Big S on January 29, 2008 at 3:28 PM
We may be screwed:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-129electionday,0,6968764,print.story
Dudley Smith on January 29, 2008 at 3:28 PM
Screw the brokered convention! We’re takin’ this to the Supreme Court, baby!
Big S on January 29, 2008 at 3:32 PM
You, my friend, are a modern day Nostradamus.
p0s3r on January 29, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Lighten up, Francis. I’m no McCain supporter, but it’s not like any of the other remaining candidates are much of a prize either.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 3:34 PM
I hope Rudy drops out after losing in Florida. Romney would pick up most of Rudy’s support, and he needs it. As for Huckabee, he splits part of McCain’s vote.
indythinker on January 29, 2008 at 3:41 PM
Congratulations on your hollow and off-issue point.
Mcguyver on January 29, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Don’t be so sure about that.
Big S on January 29, 2008 at 3:45 PM
I don’t know of any serving governor who isn’t weak in that regard (take GWB himself …). But I still prefer governors (or generals) to legislators when it comes to choosing a president.
I like what I hear from Mitt on foreign policy. He sounds like a “Strong America” conservative to me. I suppose he could be lying or doing the slick willie. But I just don’t get that sense from him.
Well that’s weak.
Go Mitt!!
argos on January 29, 2008 at 3:45 PM
He ideologically is where MOST voters are..
Rudy, ideologically closest to ALL Voters
.
.
Pew Research Center
.
.
Gallup:Percentage Unwilling to Vote for a Mormon Holds Steady
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Mike Nifong removed from a lawsuit against the county, DA office, etc. by the 3 boys.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Look at Rudy’s 12 Commitments and tell me what you disagree with.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 3:47 PM
ABBA or Journey?
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/story/396100.html
windansea on January 29, 2008 at 3:51 PM
I would need to cover my mouth, for fear of spewing vomit all over my ballot.
argos on January 29, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Unfortunately, the primary process is not designed to select the candidate that most voters like. In fact, I don’t know why it is designed the way it is unless we somehow think SC, NI, IA and NH are the home of great political wisdom that the rest of the nation should follow.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Florida is winner statewide winner-take-all on the Republican side. A couple of primaries up to now have been winner take all on a district level with variations like bonus delegates to the overall state winner. If Florida is “unpunished” for their early primary date, it would just add to the number of delegates that the winner gets tonight (or early tomorrow morning).
Democrats use a different system where everything is proportional (I’m guessing it is their love all all things Marxist). If they were to be “unpunished” as both Michigan and Florida are pushing. It would benefit Hillary in Michigan where she was the only “rat” to remain on the ballot besides losers like Mike Gravel. In Florida, the delegates would be divided by the outcome of the primary.
highhopes on January 29, 2008 at 3:55 PM
indythinker on January 29, 2008 at 3:24 PM
THAT is soooooo scary!
kcd on January 29, 2008 at 3:55 PM
.
Mmmm nope. I know that CNN/MSNBC/AirAmerica/alJazeera wishes me to believe that, but I’m just not picking up on it. In fact I do not perceive any of the other candidates as being any more honest/straightforward/trustworthy than he (though a few strike me as far less so). Therefore, I judge him by his reasoning and by his stated positions. I stick to the substance & make my own mind up. Bugger the spin.
argos on January 29, 2008 at 4:02 PM
You do ?
Romney wants retreat from Iraq
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:03 PM
It’s to keep the candidates as closely aligned to the party platform as possible. While NH works its way in based on tradition, IA and SC reliably go for religious, anti-abortion voters. The larger states tend to have more econ/defense conservatives, who would be likely to vote for someone moderate on social issues if they were able to go first. The party bosses don’t want that, so they penalize the big states for trying to move their primaries up.
Big S on January 29, 2008 at 4:03 PM
Clinton’s was a garden-variety dishonesty, the manufacture of which does not cause a Clinton in midseason form to break a sweat. And it was no worse than — actually, not as gross as — St. John of Arizona’s crooked-talk claim in Florida that Mitt Romney wanted to “surrender and wave a white flag, like Senator Clinton wants to do” in Iraq because Romney “wanted to set a date for withdrawal that would have meant disaster.”
Imitation being the sincerest form of flattery, the Clintons should bask in the glow of John McCain’s Clintonian gloss on this fact: Ten months ago Romney said that President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki should discuss, privately, “a series of timetables and milestones.” That unremarkable thought was twisted by McCain, whose distortions are notably clumsy, as when Romney said, accurately, that he alone among the candidates has had extensive experience in private-sector business. That truth was subjected to McCain’s sophistry, and he charged that Romney had said “you haven’t had a real job” if you had a military career. If, this autumn, voters must choose between Clinton and McCain, they will face, at least stylistically, an echo, not a choice.
- George Will
MB4 on January 29, 2008 at 4:05 PM
The Primary Process needs an enema, IMHO..
I believe 13 States should vote on the first day, 13 States spread out across the country…
These States would NOT include the larger delegate rich States of NY, CA or Florida.. although, I do believe that this 13 State Matrix would give the voters a better overall judgment of race.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 4:10 PM
Except the party platform is agreed upon at the convention and changes from convention to convention.
BTW: RealClearPolitics has a very interesting article on the race so far here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/how_to_read_the_early_results.html
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 4:11 PM
Big S, if we want to GROW our party, we need the person that is ideologically closest to them and that is Rudy.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 4:12 PM
Why? Why would that cause the party to grow?
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 4:12 PM
Obama is running against two Clintons — or one and a fraction of one, given how much she has been diminished by her overbearing spouse. Romney is marginally better off running against a Clinton impersonator [McCain].
- George Will
MB4 on January 29, 2008 at 4:13 PM
After we have the people IN the tent, they WILL see that Conservative principals are FAR better than, liberal ideals.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 4:14 PM
My point exactly. As long as the nominee has positions close to what party activists are likely to choose at the convention, the changes will be small. Nominating a pro-choice republican, which would not be unlikely if big coastal states got to vote early, would put the nominee at odds with the activists.
Big S on January 29, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Ummm..
More people would obviously be receptive to his message.
And Overall that message is CONSERVATIVE.
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Well of course all one needs to do is listen the entire audio clip that you link to to understand that the above statement is a flat out lie. In fact, what Romney advocated back then is exactly the trajectory that we are moving along now. And DO NOTE in that town meeting that he clearly stated that he believed that the surge was succeeding.
Really, you demagogues do astound me. How stupid do you think we are?
argos on January 29, 2008 at 4:16 PM
He states that he believes we can be in stage 3 (out of Iraqi into other nations) by next year. Is that not the truth ? And isnt that the same position the dems have taken ?
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:20 PM
Hearing early exit polling is going for Mitt
ConservativePartyNow on January 29, 2008 at 4:21 PM
A lot of people don’t like the Republican party’s social stances. Nominating a pro-choice candidate who doesn’t hate gays would go a long way towards showing those people that it’s OK to be a Republican even if you disagree with the party on some issues. It looks like Republicans are more interested in purifying the party than growing it, though, so Giuliani was a no-go.
Big S on January 29, 2008 at 4:21 PM
Lets hope it holds. Go Mitt!!
kcd on January 29, 2008 at 4:27 PM
For all the discussion going on about McVain, read this and then make up your own mind.
http://www.nationalreview.com/contributors/levinprint040501.html
belad on January 29, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Bill Clinton sez “Hillary is the person I would vote for even if we never had been married,” he said
William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Mitt will win by 3%.
Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Mitt will win by 3%.
Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Prediction?
kcd on January 29, 2008 at 4:36 PM
Hearing early exit polling is going for Mitt
ConservativePartyNow on January 29, 2008 at 4:21 PM
========
Was HL Menken was right when he said that no one ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the American people?
Well, maybe…
georgealbert on January 29, 2008 at 4:36 PM
Of course! I never claimed to see the future. This is my interpretation of all available data and trend extrapolation.
Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 4:37 PM
My Fla. predictions…
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huck
4. Rudy
misterspork on January 29, 2008 at 4:40 PM
Comment pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 »