Florida: Predictions
posted at 9:26 am on January 29, 2008 by Allahpundit
Get ‘em in now. How close is it? Dude. Mitt has the 10-to-1 ad advantage, Maverick has the endorsements. Verdict: Rudy, baby, in an upset! No, no, kidding. I’ll pick McCain, for no better reason than that the campaign has seemed to revolve entirely around him for the past week. Or, if that’s not good enough, try this:
[E]arly voting in Florida began January 14, and Thompson departed the race on January 22. There’s about a week’s worth of Thompson votes in there that might have gone for another GOP candidate.
“Another GOP candidate” being, of course, Mitt. As for the mayor, Riehl sends word that he’s already in parting gift mode vis-a-vis his staffers. Portrait of a man looking for the exit:
When Mr. Giuliani wandered back to take a few questions, some of them had a fairly bearish bent. Asked what he would do the day after the primary, Mr. Giuliani said: “When it’s Wednesday morning, we’ll make a decision. The reality is the voting hasn’t even started yet, at least the Jan. 29 voting hasn’t started yet. I believe we’re going to win.”
Money appears to be in short supply. The campaign tried to hoard its cash during the earlier contests, in the hope that it would be able to overwhelm its exhausted rivals once they arrived here with their coffers depleted. That does not seem to have worked out as planned. As loss after loss made fund-raising more challenging — Mr. Giuliani finished behind Representative Ron Paul of Texas in all of the early contests except New Hampshire — Mr. McCain, of Arizona, saw his fund-raising improve after he won in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And Mr. Romney started to invest heavily in Florida after his victory in Michigan; senior Giuliani campaign aides, meanwhile, have agreed to work without pay.
There’s a debate tomorrow night so he’s not kidding about having to decide tomorrow morning. Exit question: Can it really be true? “This is typical of the hard Right. It’s what they do. They don’t understand how to win elections, because Rush Limbaugh isn’t interested in electing a president. These people don’t care. They’re interested in listenership; it’s not the same thing.”
Update: Another reason for Rudy to get out quick rather than go to New York and be humiliated: He’s got the Giuliani brand to think about.
Blowback
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Good grief! I had no idea those two ladies had that much power. I think Rudy would be a fine president and so would Mitt. What’s with the pouting? Stick that lower lip back in.
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Romney will win by two or three points. Why?
(i) The trend line of the past week was all his way. I don’t buy that endorsements/smears will have reversed it.
(ii) His emergence as the Anyone But McCain candidate.
(iii) Polls have tended to overstate McCain’s support. Some people may be telling pollsters “McCain” out of sympathy, when privately they will go elsewhere.
(iv) Look at the body language of the campaigns: not what they say, but what they’ve been doing. Rudy’s done, and knows it. Huck fled the state. McCain’s guys have been throwing everything they can imagine/calling in every favor/rolling out every conceivable endorsement. To me that suggests their internals show them behind. Romney’s campaign, by contrast, has kept its cool.
So…Romney wins, for now. But this thing’s got a way to go yet.
AlexG on January 29, 2008 at 11:21 AM
I want it for Mitt… so I’m going to bet that McCain takes it by four or five.
E L Frederick (Sniper One) on January 29, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Michelle and Laura: The Kingmakers.
After all Rudy’s downfall was all about Michelle and Laura; Rudy’s idiotic campaign strategy had nothing to do with it. Nope. Nothing at all. I mean- why even hold a primary when Michelle and Laura decide who the nominee will be anyways.
I for one welcome our new female columnist overlords.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Maybe so, but who the heck reads newspapers anymore? This medium will be extinct (in paper form) in my lifetime…
eanax on January 29, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Rudy’s campaign was over after the 12th time he took a call from his wife in the middle of a speech.
I think Fred Thompson’s campaign was run better. Rudy wasted $30 million. I’ve stopped being impressed.
The Race Card on January 29, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Ditto! LOL! ;-0
On a more serious note, I’ve noticed something interesting with the candidates vis-a-vis talk radio. Romney is constantly on talking up his campaign. Rudy has been on to a lesser degree. Huckabee and McCain have essentially been AWOL. I think it a tactical error considering the size of the audience of Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Rush, and all the rest of the nationally broadcast hosts.
highhopes on January 29, 2008 at 11:29 AM
I don’t agree. Vote for who you believe in and back. Besides, you can’t b*tch if you don’t vote…
eanax on January 29, 2008 at 11:30 AM
I wonder how much the Independent vote will affect today’s outcome.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Predictions: Too close to call between McCain and Romney.
Rudy takes 3rd, hopefully lets his campaign die a dignified death immeadiately afterwards so we can stop listening to the RINO Rudy defenders around here.
Huckster will stay in as a part of whatever deal he’s made with McCain no matter how poorly he does in Florida.
Paul is still a dangerously insane nutjob.
I don’t much care who wins Florida, but I’m pulling slightly for Mitt- but only to keep the race in flux. If McCain wins Florida, the nomination is likely his. If Mitt wins, it’ll be close- perhaps close enough that we get to enjoy the sheer chaos of a brokered convention.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Please put your tin foil hats on , place your seats in an upright position and ignore that WHOOMP, WHOOMP sound of the helicopter. Here I go.
Why is it that the Mass Market Media recently have begun to cast depersions on conservative radio hosts while lauding the creditenials of John McCain? Isn’t one of the predominant arguments of conservatives one that most of the Drive-By media are biased against conservatives and their viewpoints? So we have Big Media telling us McCain is the man. So many comments on various blogs and websites have all expressed the same thing. Republican voters will stay home if he is the nominee. In this way the Democrats don’t have to beat a candidate, regardless of who their nominee is. The Republicans counter argument is don’t stay home because you can’t let a Dem into the White House. With McCain as the Republican candidate I say the Dems basically have 2 nominees for President, either one of which they would be happy to put in the White HOuse, but they would prefer the one with the original (D) behind their name.
Republicans either get a conservative during this primary season or just face facts that for at least the next four years having a job which doesn’t report taxes might be a good idea.
(For tips see your local illegal immigrant for papers and techniques)
Just A Grunt on January 29, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Wow. Now that’s quite an embarrassing statement.
eanax on January 29, 2008 at 11:35 AM
I also wonder how the military vote breaks down. I hope they aren’t single vision.
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 11:37 AM
I just got a “Thank You” letter yesterday from Fred’s campaign, but it had no mention of his dropping out…
gmoonster on January 29, 2008 at 11:38 AM
We could and have done much worse.
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 11:39 AM
No, no, no- you have it all backwards. If you vote, and your candidate wins and screws things up- then you can’t b*tch.
But if you don’t vote at all, you can b*tch no matter who wins.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 11:40 AM
Independents voting for McCain?
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 11:41 AM
I changed one word:
Next, considering the following:
In this case the money is funding work at McCain’s foundation to eliminate borders, grant amnesty, and prevent assimilation. McCain keeps campaign workers working there, at high salary between campaigns
A chunk of the funding comes through a man known to attempt to interfere with elections globally, Soros.
Because the foundation is used to keep money flowing to members of McCain’s campaign machine, it could be looked at as a huge slush fund, a money laundering process to sustain the McCain campaign between election years. Especially because the ‘senior scholar’ at the think tank is now the senior ‘Hispanic Outreach’ coordinator of the McCain campaign
And to think, McCain championed ‘Campaign Finance Reform’ which shut up foundations from running interest ads before elections, while he uses his foundation to stable his campaign workers at high salaries, courtesty shady donors
entagor on January 29, 2008 at 11:41 AM
This is nutty. Conservative bloggers/commentators (including Laura & Michelle) have been going hard after McCain, not Rudy. Rudy is generally well-regarded — the most common rap against him (on this side) is that he has run a hugely ineffective campaign.
argos on January 29, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Vietnam Era and before are breaking for McCain. Post Vietnam to current were at one time going towards Fred, but now it is in disarray. Many remember the Rudy of 9/11, but got turned off by his constant reminding us of it, more then a few have such a lack of information on Mormons that it sometimes make them hestitant to vote Mitt, although when you start throwing out some names of famous Mormons they quickly take a shine to him. Huckabee voters among the veterans I know are non existent. They all view him as a BS artist and constatnly get Clinton flashbacks when the phrase governor of Arkansas comes up.
/all politics are local so I can only speak for those I have contact with
Just A Grunt on January 29, 2008 at 11:42 AM
I don’t buy it. I have to wait to see if Bill’s body language expert confirms it. /s
Spirit of 1776 on January 29, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Congratulations Allah!!! Even though you’re on the hook for Fred’s failure, you can’t be blamed for a McShamnesty win.
csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Did I take a wrong turn and end up at FreeRepublic? What is happening to this place?
Ugh.
capitalist piglet on January 29, 2008 at 11:45 AM
InTrade suddenly has McCain 58%, Romney 47%. do they know something we don’t?
Ludwig on January 29, 2008 at 11:47 AM
I can’t even figure what the heck InTrade is supposed to be, nevermind using their analysis for anything useful.
BKennedy on January 29, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Shameless plug for an alternative candidate and another veteran.
Jerry Curry for President
Yes it is for real he is on the ballot in 15 – 20 states.
Just A Grunt on January 29, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Sorry, I disagree. People have no standing to b*tch about the country’s circumstances if they don’t participate in the political process, of which voting is the most important aspect.
If I hear anyone complaining and whining, I always ask them if they voted. Many times they say no. To which, I reply…
“You’re not entitled to b*tch. You didn’t participate in the process. So, don’t complain about something in which you didn’t even attempt to participate in but were fully capable of participating in.”
Capiche?
eanax on January 29, 2008 at 11:51 AM
Agreed. Totally inappropriate.
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 11:51 AM
Me too. Sad in a way. Still the only one worth supporting.
ScottG on January 29, 2008 at 11:51 AM
It’s simply another tragic sufferer from PFDTS: Post-Fred Dalton Thomas Syndrome.
Symptoms include an inexplicable urge to come onto Jeri Thompson after Fred’s repositioning to beta candidate status, sweaty palms, nervousness, and inexplicable urges to write in Fred Dalton Thomas in presidential primaries and elections.
BKennedy on January 29, 2008 at 11:52 AM
InTrade had Clinton beating Obama by a wider margin than that in New Hampshire. Doesn’t mean crapola.
Tmaque on January 29, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Hey,! I resemble that remark. The withdrawal pangs are a killer. There ain’t no methadone or nuttin to take the edge off.
/
Just A Grunt on January 29, 2008 at 11:54 AM
I don’t think so – just tried to call the Election Department but the wait was too long – but as a long time Florida voter I can say that I never heard that one.
Ann on January 29, 2008 at 11:56 AM
No, I think it just represents vulgarism and makes us all look sleazy if it doesn’t stop.
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM
I predict the outcome will result in more spending and bigger government.
Texas Rainmaker on January 29, 2008 at 11:59 AM
If anyone cares to make out a petition, I’ll sign it. Keep HA slime-free.
And go Mitt!!
argos on January 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM
IMO, primary elections are too fluid to have early voting options. I think too many early voters become disenfranchised when their candidate drops from the race or new information comes to light that might impact their final decision.
CliffHanger on January 29, 2008 at 12:03 PM
I’m sitting this one out, but I’ve voted in every Presidential election since 1988. Since Minnesota’s electoral votes have gone blue since I was a baby, my vote hasn’t mattered in any of them. Therefore, my non-vote means just as much as every vote I’ve cast.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM
I don’t like it but it seems that either Hillary/Obama or McCain will hold the next State of the Union speech.
Entelechy on January 29, 2008 at 12:05 PM
Rudy did not run a bad campaign. He was not going to beat Huck in Iowa, so any money or time spent there would have been a waste. He did not really abandon the early states as everyone suggests. He really tried in NH. He had tons of appearances and spent $3 million on advertising in HN. He really tried to win there. But when he was going down, not up, in the NH polls, he tactically retreated out of the state to make it appear that he was only interested in FL — a good move to put the best light on a the bad result. Maybe he should have fought for Michigan, but he probably thought homegrown Mitt was a lock. The campaign was not run poorly, it just didn’t get anyone to vote for him. Rudy once again showed us his impressive leadership skills. Unfortunately, no one followed.
Prediction McCain in a squeaker. Rudy’s remaining supporters can see the writing on the wall, will not throw their votes away, will vote for McCain instead. Huck’s legions will vote for their man in spite of reason, costing Mitt the election. Consequently, Huck will beat Rudy, but McCain takes the state.
In the morning, Rudy will drop out and endorse McCain. McCain will roll on 2/5 and select Rudy as VP.
If Rudy does stay in for the debate, he will be the ultimate stalking horse for McCain and will savagely attack Mitt. With nothing to loose, the old nasy Rudy will come back. It may get ugly.
tommylotto on January 29, 2008 at 12:05 PM
You can probably take that one to the bank, though for all his many, many faults that prevent me from voting for him, McCain might not be too bad on that front.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Romney 30%
McVain 25%
Rudy 16%
Hustler 7%
Paul 7%
Fred! 2%
omnipotent on January 29, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Naah, you’ve got your question all wrong..
That’s how you need to do it.
I believe Romney pulled off a lot of votes that would have been for Thompson otherwise.
Yes this is a silly analysis, but really not much more silly than the other tries at “a Vote for X is a Vote for Y” nonsense.
If Thompson had gotten more votes than the rest of the people running, that wouldn’t have made McCain the nominee; so a vote for Thompson was… a vote for Thompson. Brilliant in its simplicity.
Although, to be fair, I haven’t voted yet; Colorado isn’t until super-Tuesday.
gekkobear on January 29, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Ha ha ha ha ha… yeah, and the Sun does NOT rise in the East.
Rudy could’ve made a strong showing in NH, MI and NV, but didn’t because he didn’t make enough of an effort there. His “late state” strategy was a bad one.
But you just go telling yourself that he didn’t run a bad campaign, yet for “inexplicable” reasons dropped like a stone right around the time the primaries started earlier this month.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 12:10 PM
If Fred ran Romney’s campaign, he’d have the nomination sewn up by now. But that’s all hypothetical anyway.
Spirit of 1776 on January 29, 2008 at 12:14 PM
McCain’s kale is drying up.
Even with Dems covertly pumping in coin.
Let’s hope Capt. McShamnesty heads back to build a fence in Arizona after today.
And pick his own $50 an hour lettuce.
profitsbeard on January 29, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Mitt is buying FL with his own money.
Is this how Blumberg will do it too?
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 12:16 PM
You are right. Rudy did not run a “bad” campaign.
He ran a collosaly stupid, ill-timed and ass backwards campaign. There is bad and then there is Rudy.
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 12:16 PM
ameripundit,
Wait a minute. You mean that if any person just walks up and is not registered can pick a party right then? What if they are already registered as a Democrat or Independent? Can they change right then????
Oh boy, if that is true, then that goes to McCain’s advantage.
Hollowpoint,
Seems like I remember you going on and on about how there was no way in hell McCain would ever get the nomination. What did we bet? Was it an expensive bottle of champagne?
Heh.
Rightwingsparkle on January 29, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Nothing wrong with Rudy and I didn’t hear Laura and Michelle bash him. Just because they don’t support him doesn’t mean they treated him like McCain. Face it, Rudy just fizzled. I have to disagree with Allah. I don’t think Rudy will finish in the top two in Florida. I just voted for Mitt, but Rudy would have been my second choice. Rudy has strong points, but he’s also liberal on some issues. That’s the same problem we’ve had with Bush.
Prediction: Mitt by five points
Tommylotto, if Rudy drops out and endorses McCain, I’m betting Mitt will get Fred’s endorsement. Then, it will be an interesting two-horse race to the finish.
orlandocajun on January 29, 2008 at 12:17 PM
I’m still waiting for the job he offered.
He’ll try to, but I don’t know how well it’ll work. Mitt doesn’t just have money, he has support. It’s a mixture of support and greenbacks. I don’t think Bloomberg would have any clear base of support.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Well, if he does, then I was wrong about his suitability for president.
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Hoping Mitt, but my guess is McCain by 2
conservnut on January 29, 2008 at 12:18 PM
I don’t think Dems can vote for Reps, but Independents can (apparently) choose to vote in one of the primaries. As you said, that would work to McCain’s advantage.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Why wait? Mitt could’ve used Fred’s endorsement BEFORE the Florida primary.
CliffHanger on January 29, 2008 at 12:20 PM
You’re rudy supporter, who is your second choice? McCain or Mitt?
csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 12:21 PM
manbearpig wins in a major upset
Mitt 30
Juan McLame 25
Rudy 15
shuckabee 10
Tin foil hat ron paul 3
Fred 1
Mojack420 on January 29, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Eh, I’m not so sure. I hope you’re right, but I don’t necessarily see it playing out that way. Fred damn-near refused to go after McCain, but he went after Mitt (IIRC). Fred is allegedly personally close with McCain.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Slightly off-topic: Why is McCain getting so many endorsements by GOP governors and senators, despite the almost uniform opposition of GOP commentators/talk radio/bloggers, etc.? And why has Romney received none?
This is deeply troubling to me because while Romney certainly has his problems, McCain is a true and tested RINO who departs from (and fights against) the majority of Republicans on taxes, immigration, judges and other issues in order to preserve his reputation as a “maverick” and media darling. I certainly respect McCain’s competence in the military and foreign affairs area, and I also respect McCain for consistently fighting pork, but what am I missing here? Are we just giving up and conceding the election to Hillary or Obama?
Outlander on January 29, 2008 at 12:26 PM
Thank you! InTrade is an even worse example of mental masturbation than posting on blog forums (hey, ya gotta draw the line somewhere)…
ErikTheRed on January 29, 2008 at 12:28 PM
In case you haven’t noticed, people lie and distort the truth frequently on blogs. At least with market politics, people put their money where their mouth is.
Spirit of 1776 on January 29, 2008 at 12:33 PM
I voted for Fred absentee before he dropped out.
Jay on January 29, 2008 at 12:34 PM
I don;t suppose any of you know what time some election numbers will be rolling in? I’m getting crazy in anticipation, hoping for a Mitt win.
BKennedy on January 29, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Because at the end of the day, they know he won’t upset the apple cart to the degree that Romney wants to. I’m not sure how much Romney will actually accomplish – Washington is a monster of a ship to turn around. In order to make a dent, we’ll need:
* Someone who’s a gifted orator (Romeny is a plus here, but not quite in Reagan’s or *choke* Huckabee’s league – McCain is a minus)
* Someone who can plan, execute, and lead (major plus for Romney, minus for McCain)
McCain’s an excellent rabble-rouser in the Senate, and he should stay there. He’s very principled – it’s just that I don’t agree with some of his more principled stances (McCain – Feingold, and McCain – Lieberman for instance). Even when I disagreed with his refusal to vote for the Bush tax cuts, I respect that his rationale was that they were not offset with spending cuts. The Gang of 14 probably did more good than harm at the end of the day. He’s not t3h pure evil or anything, but I don’t want him in the White House. Romney or Guiliani are both better candidates, IMHO. Rudy blew his campaign, so my support’s going to Romney.
ErikTheRed on January 29, 2008 at 12:39 PM
I can see Rudy dropping out and endorsing McCain, but I don’t see Fred knifing McCain in the back and endorsing Mitt, for personal reasons.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 12:42 PM
Polls close around 7-8pm. Not quite sure what time numbers begin to roll in, but I’d expect sometime around then.
By the way, shameless pimping of my updates.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:43 PM
They will start coming in after the polls close in FL
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 12:44 PM
No way would I have bet champagne. A sixer of beer maybe.
Don’t go getting cocky just yet; it’s probably going to be at least another month before we know for sure who the nominee will be.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 12:44 PM
Where are you posting from? Your blog’s posts have a time stamp of 5pm
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Remember that Florida is in two time zones. We don’t wanna be calling a winner before the entire state has had a chance to finish voting.
I would say any time past 8PM CST would be good for some accurate numbers.
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 12:45 PM
InTrade is basically gambling on politics and whatnot – no more, no less. It’s influenced by popular opinion, based on public knowledge. It’s like predicting the winner of a sporting event based on how people are betting. It reflects the opinions of a very small sample of people. I can see how people might find it entertaining, but I wouldn’t put money on its predictions.
ErikTheRed on January 29, 2008 at 12:46 PM
Your probably right…
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 12:46 PM
Heh. My mistake. New blog installation, time is off. I’m correcting it.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:46 PM
No biggie
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Fixed. Thanks, bnelson44.
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:49 PM
I can’t counter the reports, but independents are not supposed to be able to vote on either side. Sample Ballot 1 Sample Ballot 2 (go to pg. 39 for nonpartisan)
If the poll workers are allowing it, it is not proper.
I’ll be casting my vote tonight for Mitt. I’ll predict Mitt by a razor margin based on hope and plain old gut feeling.
infidel2 on January 29, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Right, that’s the way it’s supposed to be. You have to declare in order to vote for a primary candidate. The man and the second poll worker apparently agreed he wasn’t supposed to vote, but they directions otherwise.
Makes you wonder…
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Ha ha ha ha ha… yeah, and the Sun does NOT rise in the East.
Rudy could’ve made a strong showing in NH, MI and NV, but didn’t because he didn’t make enough of an effort there. His “late state” strategy was a bad one.
But you just go telling yourself that he didn’t run a bad campaign, yet for “inexplicable” reasons dropped like a stone right around the time the primaries started earlier this month.
Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 12:10 PM
—————
The fact is that it is all about abortion. Michelle, Laura, have been clear about their antipathy for anyone that does not tow the line in abortion. Rush said that he would not would not want to hear anyone that is not “pro-life’ described as conservative. Peggy Noonan totally dismissed Rudy because of the abortion issue. And to make it worse because Rudy is Catholic but does not follow Michelle’s, Laura’s, Peggy’s et al. othodoxy on abortion, they targeted Rudy from the beginning. They did not want an Catholic nominated that was not in their camp on this. Which is fine, that is their right.
And Rudy did not handle it well. He should have went on Laura’s program often and made his case that he has a history of actually reducing the number of abortions, which is what the goal should be, not just politics, but real people.
All of this is diappointing because it is vindicating Romney’s strategy of lying about his position on abortion just to get the nomination. It basically says that too many voters are sheep and want to believe ridiculous lies so long as it fits their view of what the outcome should look like. Romney is phony, plain and simple. At least Rudy is honest.
georgealbert on January 29, 2008 at 12:54 PM
So it’s the Radio Talkshow Hosts that don’t know how to win elections but these people don’t listen to talk radio? My head hurts.
You can read up there: It’s all about the wartime hero, and that’s why that’s all McCain wants to talk about. If he talks about anything else, he’s not a conservative no matter how you slice it.
It isn’t the Hard Right hurting elections, it’s the moderates and Reagan Democrats who still have their hard-core liberal leanings that are causing the rift. I don’t get it. Here you have guys from the other team coming over to your side because they realize their side sucks to high heaven. Then, instead of your team assimilating them and turning them into good strong teammates who know your playbook, they start tell us, “Here’s our playbook, now we need to change ourselves to be more like this.” Instead of telling them to go shoove it, we say, “Hey Yeah! That sounds like a good idea! Let’s take the loser team’s playbook and be more like them. We’ll really start winning games that way.” See? Makes absolutely no sense.
Sultry Beauty on January 29, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Erik, I agree with your points. Smart gamblers don’t care to lose money though.
Spirit of 1776 on January 29, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Someone alert the lawyers! Lets take this baby up to the Supreme Court . . Oh wait, we’re not democrats.
Like your site by the way. It would be great if you had links for the blurbs.
infidel2 on January 29, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Florida’s primary is the first of the 2008 campaign to be closed to independent voters. That could hurt candidates such as Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain,, who have found strong support from independents in early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
…
Florida is one of 18 states that prohibit independent voters from casting ballots in primary elections. Florida has one exception for its closed primary. When all candidates for an office are from one political party all voters, regardless of affiliation, can vote in the primary.
Candidates face closed primary in Florida – Herald Tribune
SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 12:57 PM
I guess hoping (not predicting) that Rudy comes in second behind Romney. I think if he comes in second, he stays. Third? Well, might as well stay around for Super Tuesday, since it’s so close, and you just never know, but…
Despite some of these articles about some Independents voting in Flordia, I think the lack of an open primary hurts McCain. If McCain wins Florida, I think it’s over for Romney.
I have to look at Romney a little bit more closely now. All the Republican candidates hate him…but I’m honestly not sure if that’s a bad thing.
asc85 on January 29, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Thanks! Each blurb now has its own link. :-)
amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 12:59 PM
I agree, the lack of the open primary hurts McCain.
Some voting irregularities will always be present. So long as it is not wide-spread it shouldn’t be an issue. Of course as “close” as this is expected to be a polling station or two could (but not likely) make a difference
infidel2 on January 29, 2008 at 1:06 PM
I wish I could say pictures of our humble polling place were riveting, but…they look sorta like a sick ET.
Plus, we’re in the Panhandle and with a real live expert on everything like Bill Bradley covering the MO-rons in South Florida, I expect no one will care anyway.
tree hugging sister on January 29, 2008 at 1:07 PM
I agree as far as money goes…Fred raised what he needed when he needed and met every goal! Too bad that attitude won’t make it to washington or make its way into politics in general…Are we actually saying that he who spends the most money or gets the biggest back for his big bucks wins….scary!
RedLizard64 on January 29, 2008 at 1:14 PM
To Florida Prinary voters:
If you are exit polled today, lie. CNN, FOX, and other new organizations have agin taken to using exit polling to declare a winner, rather than the actual voting tally.
paulsur on January 29, 2008 at 1:20 PM
Because, compared to the others, McCain is the establishment Republican. Spending eons in DC political circles counts because it all becomes very cozy and comfortable- remember the absurdity of nominating Bob Dole because it was “his turn?” McCain is enjoying some of that same situation. The big difference is that the GOP base wants change and doesn’t like McCain (respects his life story but thinks the man himself is nothing but a mean bitter Quisling).
highhopes on January 29, 2008 at 1:20 PM
To what end? So Florida looks foolish once again? A better strategy would simply be to refuse to answer so that the exit polls are meaningless. I certainly wouldn’t participate in one of these.
highhopes on January 29, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Sweet K2 mod!
I really admire Huck’s forced frugal campaigning and Mitt’s being able to afford funding his own.
What I would like to know is how is Ron Paul spending all of his campaign donations?
The Race Card on January 29, 2008 at 1:23 PM
He is planning on going through all the primaries. So I expect him to exhaust his funds that way.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 1:32 PM
If this is going to be a close election, the networks won’t rely on exit polls.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 1:34 PM
I care.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 1:36 PM
I thought we had disenfranchised you Panhandle-ers years ago, Sis?
Mr. Bingley on January 29, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Yep. McCain is the stereotypical insider and he represents more of the same. IMO, his military service credentials have nothing to do with his fitness for the White House.
a capella on January 29, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Yea, that’s why he’s been known as Maverik for years. You guys really take the cake.
bnelson44 on January 29, 2008 at 1:43 PM
It will be McCain by a nose, unfortunately. The early Fred voters might have made the difference for Mitt, if they could go back and revote.
Also, what almost everyone is forgetting is that while in a normal case, a lack of an open primary would hurt McCain, Florida this year, in effect IS an open primary. With the Democrat delegates stripped, it doesn’t take much for a Democrat or Independent to temporarily ‘register’ as a GOP, and vote for McCain, who is clearly their choice.
Any FL voters out there who are still not sure of who to pick. McCain is NOT the one with the better chance to beat Clinton or Obame. Romney is. Romney grows on people once they actually stop and listen to him. His plastic appearance melts away and you realize he is actually genuine. Second, McCain gets worse the more you look at him.
If you want to know what a McCain v. Obama race will be like in November, look to history. Our side will be putting up a 71 year old injured war, veteran with impeccable service to his country, and a long tenure in the Senate against a much younger candidate on the Democrat side. It will be Clinton – Dole all over again.
scott on January 29, 2008 at 1:45 PM
You know….. There are not enough words to describe my disgust of you (and all other McCain AND HUCKABEE shills) for betraying the real conservative movement.
Your testimony of being a converted democrat is pure poppycock!
You have said you want a more kindler, gentler approach to illegal immigrants.
What the hell is that!?!
Nobody sane, who is against illegal immigration has ever said anything about being cruel!!
Just enforce the law, DAMN IT!!
Your elitism does not escape me. You spent your time, as you say, doing charity work.
Who the hell has time to do charity work, unless one has enough money from inheritance, etc. to work without pay!?!
Translation: you are an elitist. So is your grandfather and your father who are, as you confess, your role models.
You represent, in broad daylight, the problem with elitists in our country.
You really don’t care what’s good for the country, the founding principles of conservatism and the common person who is equal in value.
No, you don’t think that way. You elite, effete snobs, think you know better than the rest of us working grunts.
Your disdain for the common working person is obvious in that you want to allow many more undeserved illegals a “kindler, gentler” route of entry into the workforce, so as to force our pricing power downward.
SCREW YOU!
Screw you for betraying us real Americans, who really care about the country, AND MAKE THIS COUNTRY WORK, THROUGH OUR TENACIOUS, LONG SUFFERING, SWEAT, BLOOD AND TEARS!
Screw you for lording your snobbish attitude over us!
And as your favorite elite snob (John McCain) says of reporters, news anchors, etc, “Hey jerk”.
The real jerks are you, who try to tell us the wisdom of your screwy, “kindler, gentler” amnesty bill by calling us bigots, and simpletons, without being able to engage us in an intellectual conversation on the wisdom of your point of view.
SCREW YOU JERKS!
Mcguyver on January 29, 2008 at 1:46 PM
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