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Florida: Predictions

posted at 9:26 am on January 29, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Get ‘em in now. How close is it? Dude. Mitt has the 10-to-1 ad advantage, Maverick has the endorsements. Verdict: Rudy, baby, in an upset! No, no, kidding. I’ll pick McCain, for no better reason than that the campaign has seemed to revolve entirely around him for the past week. Or, if that’s not good enough, try this:

[E]arly voting in Florida began January 14, and Thompson departed the race on January 22. There’s about a week’s worth of Thompson votes in there that might have gone for another GOP candidate.

“Another GOP candidate” being, of course, Mitt. As for the mayor, Riehl sends word that he’s already in parting gift mode vis-a-vis his staffers. Portrait of a man looking for the exit:

When Mr. Giuliani wandered back to take a few questions, some of them had a fairly bearish bent. Asked what he would do the day after the primary, Mr. Giuliani said: “When it’s Wednesday morning, we’ll make a decision. The reality is the voting hasn’t even started yet, at least the Jan. 29 voting hasn’t started yet. I believe we’re going to win.”

Money appears to be in short supply. The campaign tried to hoard its cash during the earlier contests, in the hope that it would be able to overwhelm its exhausted rivals once they arrived here with their coffers depleted. That does not seem to have worked out as planned. As loss after loss made fund-raising more challenging — Mr. Giuliani finished behind Representative Ron Paul of Texas in all of the early contests except New Hampshire — Mr. McCain, of Arizona, saw his fund-raising improve after he won in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And Mr. Romney started to invest heavily in Florida after his victory in Michigan; senior Giuliani campaign aides, meanwhile, have agreed to work without pay.

There’s a debate tomorrow night so he’s not kidding about having to decide tomorrow morning. Exit question: Can it really be true? “This is typical of the hard Right. It’s what they do. They don’t understand how to win elections, because Rush Limbaugh isn’t interested in electing a president. These people don’t care. They’re interested in listenership; it’s not the same thing.”

Update: Another reason for Rudy to get out quick rather than go to New York and be humiliated: He’s got the Giuliani brand to think about.


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When do we get to find out who is financing McCain?

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:28 AM

Google: George Soros John McCain

volsense on January 29, 2008 at 9:30 AM

I got Romney beating McCain, but only slightly.

amkun on January 29, 2008 at 9:34 AM

I’m pullin’ for Mitt.

someguy on January 29, 2008 at 9:35 AM

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:28 AM

Ummm….

Off the top of my head people like Jim Click, Mac Magruder, Jerry Colangelo and other AZ businessmen who were all for McCain-Kennedy but helped to get a suit going to stop the the employer verification law passed in AZ from being enforced.

See Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform.

Deety on January 29, 2008 at 9:35 AM

I’m going to say McCain, but it’s going to be razor close.

Slublog on January 29, 2008 at 9:36 AM

Prediction: Mitt in a squeaker. Rudy in 2nd.

It’s like science. I’m generating a hypothesis (best educated guess). I don’t know if it will be correct. I hope that it is, though.

This is typical of the hard Right. It’s what they do. They don’t understand how to win elections, because Rush Limbaugh isn’t interested in electing a president. These people don’t care. They’re interested in listenership; it’s not the same thing.

Since when is it wrong to discuss candidates and their records? Is this what Juan McLame is going to try? Demonize all conservatives that disapprove of him as being hard right so he can run back to the center?

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on January 29, 2008 at 9:36 AM

That’s a prediction, not an endorsement.

Slublog on January 29, 2008 at 9:37 AM

Romney by last minute voters after:

1. McCain’s endorsement from the NYT.
2. McCain’s lies about Romney’s view of timetables in Iraq.
3. Rudy’s end in sight.
4. McCain’s statements that he still stands with Kennedy in supporting amnesty.

highhopes on January 29, 2008 at 9:39 AM

When do we get to find out who is financing McCain?

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:28 AM

Google: George Soros John McCain

volsense on January 29, 2008 at 9:30 AM

Why is it that every candidate that conservatives disagree with is automatically relegated to being financed by Soros? Is this boogeymanism?

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:39 AM

Since when is it wrong to discuss candidates and their records? Is this what Juan McLame is going to try?

In a sense, he’s already done it. Campaign finance reform is basically incumbency shield law.

Slublog on January 29, 2008 at 9:40 AM

I’m just on my way out to vote now and have decided to vote for Romney. My first choice was Giuliani but am now casting a vote against McCain rather than a vote for anyone.

Sigh, I dread this election.

Ann on January 29, 2008 at 9:40 AM

I am all in for Mitt, but those early votes @ 50,000-100,000 scare the heck out of me. Wasted Fred Votes, pre two man race votes for Rudy…

kflynn on January 29, 2008 at 9:40 AM

I predict, unfortunately, a McCain win. Rudy probably won’t make it until Super Tuesday. If he does, I’ll be surprised.

By the way, did you know McCain was a POW? Did ‘ya? If you don’t, and you’re a Floridian right now, he’ll be sure to remind you.

By the way, front page of my local paper: Giuliani Event Jampacked. Talks before hundreds. Guess it depends on the part of the state.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 9:41 AM

Romney will take the nomination

elBarto on January 29, 2008 at 9:41 AM

I’m going to say McCain, but it’s going to be razor close.

Slublog on January 29, 2008 at 9:36 AM

Me too…probably about 3 percentage points.

JetBoy on January 29, 2008 at 9:41 AM

Why is it that every candidate that conservatives disagree with is automatically relegated to being financed by Soros? Is this boogeymanism?

No.

Slublog on January 29, 2008 at 9:42 AM

Romney will win because people who take the time to vote (as opposed to those who happen to answer a poll) tend to be informed on the issues. Mitt is conducting a positive, confident campaign. McCain is lashing about like a Clinton facing political extinction. Mitt will win by eight.

argos on January 29, 2008 at 9:42 AM

1)Romney by less than 2%, decision coming after 11 PM.
2)McCain
3)Rudy “Goodbye” Giuliani
4)Paul just behind The Goodbye Girl, maybe 1 or 2%

Advertising wins. Most Americans aren’t bright enough to read newspapers anymore to see who is endorsing who.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:42 AM

Why is it that every candidate that conservatives disagree with is automatically relegated to being financed by Soros? Is this boogeymanism?

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:39 AM

No, there’s actually a link between McCain and Soros.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 9:43 AM

Sigh, I dread this election.

Ann on January 29, 2008 at 9:40 AM

No kidding. What a sorry lot. Mitt is the best of the bunch, but he is no barn burner. Duds all over the board.

saiga on January 29, 2008 at 9:44 AM

I am all in for Mitt, but those early votes @ 50,000-100,000 scare the heck out of me. Wasted Fred Votes, pre two man race votes for Rudy…

kflynn on January 29, 2008 at 9:40 AM

I read where early voters can void their votes and vote again. True?

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:45 AM

I’m voting for Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets for President. I can’t wait until he plays for a market so that other people can watch his magic. He is a man among boys in the NBA. . . and he’s only 21. He had the crowd chanting MVP during several AMAZING outbursts at his home in New Orleans last night. . . . and he’s just warming up.

When he hits the ‘big time’ like NY city, everyone is going to think he’s from outer space because he does so many amazing things on the basketball court. CP3 for MVP AND President.

ThackerAgency on January 29, 2008 at 9:46 AM

Lew Oliver, the longtime chairman of the Orange County Republican party

The same idiot that pushed so hard for Mel Shamnesty Martinez. No wonder he doesn’t think Limbaugh is interested in winning elections.

I swear if McCain is nominated I’m either skipping the election or voting for Obama if he’s the nominee. The reason is McCain as President would sink conservatives. Obama or Clinton would rally them and push them to the forefront of the party again.

bj1126 on January 29, 2008 at 9:46 AM

elBarto on January 29, 2008 at 9:43 AM

Caption: “I can feel your anger. It gives you focus. It makes you stronger. Come to the Dark Side.”

Slublog on January 29, 2008 at 9:46 AM

I am hoping Mitt wins – and I was a die-hard Fred supporter. I absolutely loathe McCain for what he has done and continues to do to the GOP, and the country as a whole. I have already decided that if McCain is the nominee I will not cast a vote for President. Maybe Hitlery will win, but if we’re going to have a democrat in the office, may as well be one with a (D) behind his/her/its name.

jdawg on January 29, 2008 at 9:47 AM

I hope Mitt wins.

I hope Floridians are smarter than South Carolinians (Carolites? Carolators?).

Darksean on January 29, 2008 at 9:47 AM

Why is it that every candidate that conservatives disagree with is automatically relegated to being financed by Soros? Is this boogeymanism?

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:39 AM

McCain was dead in the water. He owes somebody BIG for pulling him out.

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:47 AM

That amnesty dog is tied to Sorros according to Michelle afterall. Those pinko pictures really make the point. He needs to be gone from the race.

saiga on January 29, 2008 at 9:47 AM

goodbye ruby tuesday!

zane on January 29, 2008 at 9:48 AM

I hope Floridians are smarter than South Carolinians (Carolites? Carolators?).

Darksean on January 29, 2008 at 9:47 AM

South Cakalakans

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:49 AM

Somehow I doubt a lot of early voters went for Fred.

I think whatever voters Fred might have had were probably infected with the same laid back non-enthusiasm Fred himself had and were traditionalist enough to wait for the actually Election Day to vote. So I’d guess most of them are still up for grabs.

But then what do I know… my original choice for the last year or so has maybe one day left in his 2008 campaign.

Rudy, we hardly knew ye…..

Always Right on January 29, 2008 at 9:49 AM

If McCain is nominated I am joining Obama’s Campaign.

Poptech on January 29, 2008 at 9:50 AM

McCain was dead in the water. He owes somebody BIG for pulling him out.

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:47 AM

I think McCains’s mother is right. The only reason a lot of people are pulling for him is because they feel everyone else is too weak to win. I just can’t vote for Mr. Amnesty under any foreseeable circumstances.

saiga on January 29, 2008 at 9:50 AM

Why is it that every candidate that conservatives disagree with is automatically relegated to being financed by Soros? Is this boogeymanism?

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:39 AM
No, there’s actually a link between McCain and Soros.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 9:43 AM

I should have known it was a Michelle Malkin piece.
On another point, after seeing Kirsten Powers in HD last night, MM moves to the top of the list of HOT pundits on TV, while Kirsten moves down to about #8,092.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:50 AM

If McCain is nominated I am joining Obama’s Campaign.

Poptech on January 29, 2008 at 9:50 AM

If McCain is nominated, it won’t matter which you support, socialism wins. Right?

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:52 AM

I voted Fred this morning. And yes on 1.

I heard McCain’s new commercial on the radio this morning. It went like “Only McCain can beat Hillary in November” . And? There’s just a marginal difference between the two. And went on to knock on Mitt.

lorien1973 on January 29, 2008 at 9:52 AM

GO MITT!!

And get Fred as your VP.

RobTN on January 29, 2008 at 9:54 AM

RobTN on January 29, 2008 at 9:54 AM

Fred, Mitt, Rudy in any 2 out of 3 combo in Nov or I’m stayin’ home :P

lorien1973 on January 29, 2008 at 9:55 AM

Oh please for the love of GOD let Romney win Florida…

/fingers, toes crossed…eyes crossed…trying to figure out how to cross my testicles, internal organs…

TheGoblinKing on January 29, 2008 at 9:56 AM

I voted Fred this morning.

That’s really sad.

argos on January 29, 2008 at 9:56 AM

Anybody except McAmnesty or Giuliani.

OBX Pete on January 29, 2008 at 9:56 AM

ctmom on January 29, 2008 at 9:45 AM

I read that those who casted a ballot earlier can go and vote again and their previous vote would be void. Hopefully all those who previously voted for Fred go in and vote again for an actual candidate.

Luckedout on January 29, 2008 at 9:57 AM

I voted Fred this morning.

That’s really sad.

argos on January 29, 2008 at 9:56 AM

Wasted vote imo.. but it’s your vote.

Luckedout on January 29, 2008 at 9:58 AM

If McCain wins tonight, Mitt can start expecting donations from me. I’ll do what I can to stop McCain from getting the nod.

That being said, I thought I’d take a few choice quotes from my local paper:

I overheard a precinct worker advising another to “be careful” because someone had come in and attempted to vote in a party he/she wasn’t registered for.

At Kings Point in suburban Delray Beach, voters encountered delays after a poll worker mistakenly shut down the voting machines, Elections Supervisor Arthur Anderson told reporters.

Machines couldn’t be turned back on, so new ones had to be brought out and programmed.

The polling place for Precinct 5014 at 9045 Jog Road west of Boynton Beach opened nearly an hour late, voter Karen Brill said.

“I was told that they delivered the machines to the wrong location,” she said.

When Monzon pointed this out, she says the poll worker sought out help from a supervisor, who then called the supervisor of elections office.

Monzon says that after the supervisor got off the phone with the elections office, she told Monzon and the poll worker that this problem is happening around the county and that there is nothing that can be done about it.

Monzon says other voters present had the same problem. In one case, a wife was able to vote and but her husband was not because his ballot was changed to nonpartisan.

Ah, the smooth Floridian election process…

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 9:58 AM

At least if Obama wins vs McCain maybe the GOP will get the message in 2012. I can in no way vote for McCain.

Poptech on January 29, 2008 at 9:59 AM

E]arly voting in Florida began January 14, and Thompson departed the race on January 22. There’s about a week’s worth of Thompson votes in there that might have gone for another GOP candidate.

FINAL MISTY-EYED GLIMPSE OF FRED IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR!

Sorry FredHeads, I couldn’t resist.

Go Mitt!

Brat on January 29, 2008 at 9:59 AM

I think Romney by a close margin, 5%.

Geronimo on January 29, 2008 at 10:01 AM

I say Mitt by a nose…Rudy, then McCain

Pam on January 29, 2008 at 10:01 AM

RWLA, do you know how to use a computer? You have to be a liberal who doesn’t understand what the truth is. The truth to a lib is not what the facts are, it is what they want to perceive it to be. Google: George Soros John McCain and multiple sources will relate to you what you seem not to comprehend. Your denial of the truth is naive.

volsense on January 29, 2008 at 10:02 AM

If Maverick wins today and goes on to get the nomination, I’m voting for whoever gets the Democrat nomination. With either Maverick or any of the Democrats, the republic is going have more major problems than it already does. Why not let a Democrat shoulder the blame for a while?

LarryinVA on January 29, 2008 at 10:03 AM

Just voted in Boca Raton for RUDY!

I was out to dinner at a sushi restaurant last night, and was conversing with an elderly Jewish couple who said they had voted for Giuliani. I wouldn’t count him out just yet. The velcro shoes and shuffleboard brigade could decide this for America’s Mayor.

I also noticed that Thompson and Hunter were on the ballot (and Keyes). I chuckled at the notion for voting for Fred, my first choice, but it would have been a waste of democracy to do so.

FLcapitalistthug on January 29, 2008 at 10:04 AM

Oh please for the love of GOD let Romney win Florida…

Huck said he had that endorsement.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:06 AM

Thompson will pull it out and rejoin the race.

/Fantasy Island off

Valiant on January 29, 2008 at 10:06 AM

And I thought it was bad when the best of the bunch was Dole . . .

- The Cat

not related but a great picture

elBarto on January 29, 2008 at 9:43 AM

He’s sooo laughing at her.

MirCat on January 29, 2008 at 10:11 AM

RWLA, do you know how to use a computer? You have to be a liberal who doesn’t understand what the truth is. The truth to a lib is not what the facts are, it is what they want to perceive it to be. Google: George Soros John McCain and multiple sources will relate to you what you seem not to comprehend. Your denial of the truth is naive.

None of the above apply to me. In fact, I’m considerably MORE conservative (but TRUE conservative) than 99% of the “conservative” movement today. I’m quite savvy on internet search and computers in general, and I’m not even CLOSE to naive. However, I am sick and tired of demonizing candidates with these smears whether they’re true or not. Who gives a sh*t where the money comes from? What does the candidate stand for? Lets get away from this Soros fascination and vote our conscience.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:11 AM

Thompson will pull it out and rejoin the race.

/Fantasy Island off

Valiant on January 29, 2008 at 10:06 AM

Pull it out? I’d put it IN to Mrs. Thompson.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:12 AM

Who gives a sh*t where the money comes from? What does the candidate stand for? Lets get away from this Soros fascination and vote our conscience.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:11 AM

Can’t agree with you. Where the $ comes from matters a lot to me.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:13 AM

I voted Fred this morning. And yes on 1.
lorien1973 on January 29, 2008 at 9:52 AM

Bwahahahaha!!! The Ross Perot vote!

Lorien sez: Spite, meet my nose.

csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 10:15 AM

Can’t agree with you. Where the $ comes from matters a lot to me.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:13 AM

But look at it this way. Support YOUR candidate the best way you can, with $$, yard signs, handing out pamphlets,informing your friends,whatever. When you see one of the “bad” guys gaining traction, give more $$ to counter it. Do your best, hope everyone else does the rest, and let the chips fall where they may. Neither you or I have the wherewithall to affect elections in any major way. When we get the campaign finance reform we want, it won’t change either. Soros will be able to give as much as her want then too.
So lets stop demonizing people. It doesn’t work and only serves to make us look like a-holes.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:19 AM

Who gives a sh*t where the money comes from? What does the candidate stand for? Lets get away from this Soros fascination and vote our conscience.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:11 AM

Where money comes from matters greatly. I’d like to think John “Campaign Finance Reform” McCain would agree.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 10:19 AM

Praying for a nail in Romney’s political coffin.

Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 10:20 AM

Should read

Soros will be able to give as much as he wants then too.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:20 AM

Praying

huck supporter

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:22 AM

Praying for a nail in Romney’s political coffin.

Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 10:20 AM

So, are you hoping for McCain to win, or is this another trip off to fantasy island?

Jeff_McAwesome on January 29, 2008 at 10:22 AM

Obama or Clinton would rally them and push them to the forefront of the party again.

Did Reagan rally liberals? Did FDR rally conservatives? In both cases the opposition was out of power for a long time and had to come back accepting much of what had changed.

dedalus on January 29, 2008 at 10:24 AM

I’m witt Mitt, though I have empathy for Guliani;he’d make a pretty good veep for Romney, wouldn’t he? I don’t think the geographical balance is as important as it used to be. I’m looking forward to the convention, when all of these uncertainties are swept away.
McCain has earned my contempt, not my vote. Even if he wins Florida, he’s lost conservatives.

Doug on January 29, 2008 at 10:26 AM

I’m hoping McCain wins.

Romney’s willingness to adjust his platform regularly to appease the way-far right is nauseating. Honestly, what does the man stand for, other than “wanting to be President?” He’s a shill.

Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Oh jeez we don’t know. Just figure he won’t be in such a rush to open the borders wider or find a justice that Kennedy likes.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:29 AM

It’s Mitt!

Dudley Smith on January 29, 2008 at 10:29 AM

If McCain wins the GOP gets ripped apart. You lose the Evangelical Vote, the Anti-Amnesty Vote and the Anti-Global Warming Vote. That is enough to put the Democratic Nomination in the White House.

Poptech on January 29, 2008 at 10:29 AM

McCain will be our version of Mondale if we are stupid enough to give that angry, vindictive, and (surprise!) dishonest old man the nomination.
Pary on Ted (Kennedy)! Party on Bill (Clinton)!

Sugar Land on January 29, 2008 at 10:31 AM

The video of Romney’s changing stances on gun control is terrible. If he’s gonna change just like that for political expediency, what makes you think he won’t change other facets of his “campaign”?

FLcapitalistthug on January 29, 2008 at 10:31 AM

Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Oh jeez we don’t know. Just figure he won’t be in such a rush to open the borders wider or find a justice that Kennedy likes.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:29 AM

or make me throw away my lightbulbs so fast.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:32 AM

what makes you think he won’t change other facets of his “campaign”?

FLcapitalistthug on January 29, 2008 at 10:31 AM

Now you want principles too? Jeesh.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:33 AM

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:12 AM

Pretty inappropriate.

Connie on January 29, 2008 at 10:36 AM

Wait a minute Potfry. You didn’t tell me you were a McCainiac. Or maybe you did and I just forgot. Or we had a long discussion about it and I blocked it out.

What exactly does McCain stand for except open borders, not torturing terrorists, limiting freedoms (McCain-Feingold)and pissing off conservatives just because he can? Besides, look at the man’s scalp. Decidedly un-presidential.

But I think we all need to step back for a minute and ask ourselves one simple question: Whose hair most closely resembles Reagans? The answer is clear.

With all due respect to John Edwards, Mitt Romney is the most follically gifted presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. Period.

Buckley F. Williams on January 29, 2008 at 10:38 AM

Romney by 3 points.

SimplyKimberly on January 29, 2008 at 10:38 AM

Why is it that every candidate that conservatives disagree with is automatically relegated to being financed by Soros? Is this boogeymanism?

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 9:39 AM

Why is it that we divert off subject. Let us talk about policy!

McCain voted against the 2000 and 2004 tax cuts that helped surge our economy coming off of a Clinton recession.

McCain voted for that despicable shamnesty bill for illegals.

McCain created and voted for the McCain/Feingold Campaign Finance Act that has ruined our campaign contributions.

McCain supports membership for the USA into the Internal Criminal Court (losing US sovereignty for judicial matters).

Conservatives…stop voting in crap. Don’t vote for John McCain. He is a fake. He is not conservative. He should never be our President.

msipes on January 29, 2008 at 10:39 AM

, Mitt Romney is the most follically gifted presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. Period.

And I even think Romney uses the same shade of Kiwi polish on his.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:39 AM

I’m gonna go with Romney by a nose. I hope that McCain will finish with around 2%, but that’s merely wishful thinking. So here’s my predicted finish:

Romney 37%
McCain 34%
Guiliani 18%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 4%

Physics Geek on January 29, 2008 at 10:43 AM

Romney’s willingness to adjust his platform regularly to appease the way-far right is nauseating. Honestly, what does the man stand for, other than “wanting to be President?” He’s a shill.
Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Adjust his platform? What rock were you under when McShamnesty was for leaving the borders open? Now he says he is against it because the American people said they wanted the borders secured first. He switched his position to make himself more palatable to voters.

Shill? Look up the definition and you’ll see a picture of Grhamnesty. Shill. Pffft!

csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 10:45 AM

And I even think Romney uses the same shade of Kiwi polish on his.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 10:39 AM

SECOND LOOK AT ROMNEY FOR SECRETARY OF LOOKIN’ GOOD!

Actually I think the grease just comes out of his pores…

FLcapitalistthug on January 29, 2008 at 10:46 AM

McCain supports membership for the USA into the Internal Criminal Court (losing US sovereignty for judicial matters).

Whoa, I didn’t know that! I’m not surprised, though. Do you have a source for this?

jdawg on January 29, 2008 at 10:48 AM

I read where early voters can void their votes and vote again. True?

I haven’t heard that, and a Google search yields a link to your comment as one of the top results. And even if it were true… what percentage of people would recast their vote? Very few, I’d guess. I wonder how many of the early votes went to Fred. I’d guess that the early votes would lean more strongly towards Paul and Fred — but I have no data to support that.

Prediction: Romney, just barely. But with very low certainty.

Mark Jaquith on January 29, 2008 at 10:48 AM

The velcro shoes and shuffleboard brigade could decide this for America’s Mayor.

This was the same crowd that couldn’t push a stick through a piece of paper in 2000, isn’t it? Yeah! I trust them with being the deciding factor. ;-0

Seriously, Guiliani’s problem is far bigger than Florida and appealing to the blue-haired transplants. Everyone gave Thompson a hard time about getting into the race so late. Rudy, as a practical matter, has yet to show up for any of the primaries and NOW he expects to change the momentum? Lots of luck with that! Rudy should have been campaigning if he wanted the nomination.

highhopes on January 29, 2008 at 10:49 AM

In a sense, he’s already done it. Campaign finance reform is basically incumbency shield law.

Slublog on January 29, 2008 at 9:40 AM

How do I hate CFR? Let me count the ways…

—-

I think Romney by a thin margin just because of the direction that the polls were moving in the last few days. McCain was up 10 just a few days ago, so I think the mo is on Mitt’s side and with the race this close, pushes him over the edge.

And I guess it makes sense for Rudy to drop out, don’t know if he will before Super Tuesday though.

Spirit of 1776 on January 29, 2008 at 10:50 AM

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:12 AM
Pretty inappropriate.

Connie on January 29, 2008 at 10:36 AM

Connie,
Which comment is inappropriate and why? Give a brother some help here.

RWLA on January 29, 2008 at 10:52 AM

I think Romney will win by a margin that will surprise the pollers (and apparently a lot of yous guys). I’ll be voting after work for the Mitt.

Immolate on January 29, 2008 at 10:54 AM

I’m not feeling optimistic for teh Mitt. :(

Ludwig on January 29, 2008 at 10:55 AM

I got Romney beating McCain, but only slightly.

amkun on January 29, 2008 at 9:34 AM

I agree. And I do think that it would be bigger, but think Fred will get @ 8% of the vote

ConservativePartyNow on January 29, 2008 at 10:56 AM

Well,since this site is managed by Romney supporters Malkin and Ingraham and and swamped by people drinking the Romney Koolaid, for your sake, I hope you are wrong that is will win or that I am wrong that Romney is basically Hillary in a men’s suit.

The only good candidate left is Rudy. And Malkin and Ingraham hate him because he does not tow their line on abortion. And to Malkin’s and Ingrahams credit I think their Jihad against Rudy because of abortion has been Rudy’s biggest problem. But even if y’all succeed in getting rid of Rudy, you will, by my bet, end up with McCain and not Romney because Romney is so such phony that most people not drinking the Koolaid see quite plainly.

So if we get McCain as the Repub nominee, you can thank Michelle and Laura: You now own McCain. Thanks alot

georgealbert on January 29, 2008 at 10:56 AM

Mitt Romney is the most follically gifted presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. Period.

Mitt’s fellow MA resident, John Kerry, had good hair for a 60 year old. Didn’t help.

dedalus on January 29, 2008 at 10:56 AM

Rudy, like the respect I have for our property management, is gone.

Time to let that ship sail.

madmonkphotog on January 29, 2008 at 11:02 AM

The idea that Mitt has relationship with Reagan is laughable.

Reagan: Honest
Mitt: Not Honest

Reagan: Core Values
Mitt: Values defined by his election goals

Reagan: Wanting an inclusive party based on principles
Mitt: People follow Mitt personally or hit the highway

Reagan: Capitalism and Free Markets
Mitt: Corporate elitist // Billionaires Club OPEC booster

Reagan: Fought against the Evil Empire of Soviets
Mitt: Supports the Evil Empire of Saudis and China so long as his friends can make money on it.

Reagan: According to Laura Ingraham, disqualified because he was divorced
Mitt: Perfect because he is pretty and married only once

georgealbert on January 29, 2008 at 11:06 AM

I’m hoping McCain wins.

Well that makes one. I was wondering how long it would take.

Romney’s willingness to adjust his platform regularly to appease the way-far right is nauseating. Honestly, what does the man stand for, other than “wanting to be President?” He’s a shill.

Potfry on January 29, 2008 at 10:26 AM

A shill for what? I smell a troll. And as for changing platforms, how about McCain’s shiney new principled stand on the Bush Tax Cut?

Go Mitt!!

argos on January 29, 2008 at 11:07 AM

Votes for Fred Thompson aren’t wasted votes. I intend to write his name in here in GA, for no other reason then for at least 6 months I can go to sleep at night knowing I voted for a conservative and not some American Idol contestant.
We will have to see how this all shakes out in the end but one thing is certain, there are 3 Republican votes in my house that will go uncast if McCain is the nominee. Let the Dems win in a landslide, because either way we would be on fast track to Hades.

Just A Grunt on January 29, 2008 at 11:19 AM

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