Florida: Predictions

posted at 9:26 am on January 29, 2008 by Allahpundit

Get ‘em in now. How close is it? Dude. Mitt has the 10-to-1 ad advantage, Maverick has the endorsements. Verdict: Rudy, baby, in an upset! No, no, kidding. I’ll pick McCain, for no better reason than that the campaign has seemed to revolve entirely around him for the past week. Or, if that’s not good enough, try this:

[E]arly voting in Florida began January 14, and Thompson departed the race on January 22. There’s about a week’s worth of Thompson votes in there that might have gone for another GOP candidate.

“Another GOP candidate” being, of course, Mitt. As for the mayor, Riehl sends word that he’s already in parting gift mode vis-a-vis his staffers. Portrait of a man looking for the exit:

When Mr. Giuliani wandered back to take a few questions, some of them had a fairly bearish bent. Asked what he would do the day after the primary, Mr. Giuliani said: “When it’s Wednesday morning, we’ll make a decision. The reality is the voting hasn’t even started yet, at least the Jan. 29 voting hasn’t started yet. I believe we’re going to win.”

Money appears to be in short supply. The campaign tried to hoard its cash during the earlier contests, in the hope that it would be able to overwhelm its exhausted rivals once they arrived here with their coffers depleted. That does not seem to have worked out as planned. As loss after loss made fund-raising more challenging — Mr. Giuliani finished behind Representative Ron Paul of Texas in all of the early contests except New Hampshire — Mr. McCain, of Arizona, saw his fund-raising improve after he won in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And Mr. Romney started to invest heavily in Florida after his victory in Michigan; senior Giuliani campaign aides, meanwhile, have agreed to work without pay.

There’s a debate tomorrow night so he’s not kidding about having to decide tomorrow morning. Exit question: Can it really be true? “This is typical of the hard Right. It’s what they do. They don’t understand how to win elections, because Rush Limbaugh isn’t interested in electing a president. These people don’t care. They’re interested in listenership; it’s not the same thing.”

Update: Another reason for Rudy to get out quick rather than go to New York and be humiliated: He’s got the Giuliani brand to think about.


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This is going to be a huge factor

Miami Herald

Nearly one million Floridians have already cast early and absentee ballots in the state’s primary, a sign that moving up the date of the presidential primary will likely yield a record turnout on Tuesday.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:41 PM

My Fla. predictions…
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huck
4. Rudy

misterspork on January 29, 2008 at 4:40 PM

I’m not so sure about the Huck/Rudy order because of early voting, but otherwise this is correct.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 4:41 PM

georgealbert on January 29, 2008 at 4:36 PM

I take it your not a Mitt fan? Well, look at it this way he’s the best choice we have and if he pulls Fl I think it will propel him into super tuesday. AND I also think that he will pick up momentum all along the way to Nov. to beat Hillary or Obama. Some seem to think that McCain is the only one who can beat Hillary. I don’t think that’s true. I think that is exactly what the MSM want you to think, thats why they have pushed McCain down our throats. They are scared to death of Mitt.

kcd on January 29, 2008 at 4:42 PM

Rudy for DHS under Romney administration…

MechEng5by5 on January 29, 2008 at 4:44 PM

uth oh

Miami Herald

In Miami-Dade County, the combined total of early and absentee votes — 129,083 — matched all votes cast during the 2000 presidential primary, when 12 percent of the county’s electorate turned out.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:45 PM

kcd on January 29, 2008 at 4:42 PM

Can’t go wrong voting against whoever NYT endorsed and for whoever Tancredo, DeMint and Arpaio endorsed. Mitt ain’t Fred, but he ain’t Hillary in drag either.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 4:46 PM

He ideologically is where MOST voters are..
Chakra Hammer on January 29, 2008 at 3:45 PM

So Rudy can run on the republican ticket without the base that would nominate him? I don’t think so. I guess he could run as a third party to test that theory.

csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 4:52 PM

The only choice isn’t only Mitt then McCain or McCain then Mitt. We can’t forget that IF Rudy can pull out a win through the early voters, it is the next best (or the best) result. Either way, McShamnesty’s goose is cooked. That’ll leave Rudy and Mitt to battle it out. I could live with either I think.

Here’s to a
1)Rudy
2)Mitt
3)McLiar

OR a

1)Mitt
2)Rudy
3)McLiar

csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 4:56 PM

Here’s to a
1)Rudy
2)Mitt
3)McLiar

OR a

1)Mitt
2)Rudy
3)McLiar

csdeven on January 29, 2008 at 4:56 PM

Well that wouldn’t be so bad, but Rudy is just SO far down in the polls. The Republican poll averages have not been wrong in terms of winning for a guy without last-minute momentum observed in advance of the election day.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:03 PM

Also on Intrade this is a 60-40 McNut vs. Mitt race at the moment. That adds up to 100%, and it’s rarely THAT wrong.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:05 PM

“I did not manage, I led … And I didn’t manage for profit, I led for patriotism.”

thats right Juan, you married money

windansea on January 29, 2008 at 5:07 PM

He states that he believes we can be in stage 3 (out of Iraqi into other nations) by next year. Is that not the truth ? And isnt that the same position the dems have taken ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:20 PM

Yeah you just keep on backpeddling there, fella. He said back then (back when many Republicans were doubtful that the surge would work) that after defeating the headsawers we would move to a support phase and after that to a standby phase. This is what is happening now, more of less, and it is what makes the most sense. Also, he was speaking extemproaneously (sp?) at a town hall meeting, not before the combined houses of Congress. I thought his reply to the gentleman was quite good. I wish ol’ Bush could wing it like that.

argos on January 29, 2008 at 5:09 PM

This is going to be a huge factor

Miami Herald

Nearly one million Floridians have already cast early and absentee ballots in the state’s primary, a sign that moving up the date of the presidential primary will likely yield a record turnout on Tuesday.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:41 PM

aren’t you the genius that also told us Rudy was going to pledge his delegates to McCain, when he doesn’t have any yet and Florida is winner take all?

leave the anaylisis to the big kids mkay?

windansea on January 29, 2008 at 5:15 PM

analysis analist hehe

windansea on January 29, 2008 at 5:15 PM

Pollster.com is now doing supertuesday states some early indicators

http://www.pollster.com/

Alabama – Rasmussen 1/23/2008
Giuliani – 8% Huckabee- 27% McCain- 27% Paul – 3% Romney – 15% Undecided – 20%

Arizona – Behavior Research Center 1/20-24/08
Giuliani – 7% Huckabee- 9% McCain- 40% Paul- 3% Romney- 23% Undecided – 10%

California – CNN/LATimes/ Politico 1/23-27/08
Giuliani- 13% Huckabee- 11% McCain- 39% Paul-2% Romney-26%

Colorado Denver Post/ Mason-Dixon 1/21-23/08
Giuliani- 4% Huckabee- 17% McCain- 24% Paul- 5% Romney-43% Undecided – 7%

Conn – Courant/UConn 1/9-17/08
Giuliani-16% Huckabee-8% McCain-39% Paul-2% Romney-11% Undecided – 19%

Georgia – Rasmussen 1/22/2008
Giuliani – 11% Huckabee-34% McCain-19% Paul-12% Romney – 16%

Illinois – Post-Dispatch/Research 2000 1/21-24/08
Giuliani- 13% Huckabee- 11% McCain- 31% Paul- 7% Romney – 20% Undecided – 18%

Massachusetts – SurveyUSA 1/22-23/08
Giuliani- 6% Huckabee- 7% McCain- 29% Paul- 3% Romney -50%Undecided – 2%

Missouri – Rasmussen 1/24/2008
Giuliani – 7% Huckabee- 27% McCain- 26% Paul- 5% Romney-18%

New Jersey – Quinnipiac 1/15-22/08
Giuliani- 26% Huckabee- 9% McCain- 29% Paul- 7% Romney -14%Thompson – 9%

New York – USA Today/Gallup 1/23-26/08
Giuliani – 24% Huckabee- 8% McCain – 42% Paul – 5% Romney – 14%

Oklahoma – SurveyUSA 1/27/2008
Giuliani- 6% Huckabee – 28% McCain – 37% Paul- 6% Romney – 19% Undecided – 3%

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:22 PM

aren’t you the genius that also told us Rudy was going to pledge his delegates to McCain, when he doesn’t have any yet and Florida is winner take all?

leave the anaylisis to the big kids mkay?

windansea on January 29, 2008 at 5:15 PM

You know learn to read. I said Rudy could endorse someone (I never said who) and his delegates didnt have to follow his suggestion. Yes I didnt know it was winner take all but also as stated before that is because Florida moved its primary up and was penalized for that. I didnt know about the penalty. So I guess we are both clueless

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:25 PM

Yeah you just keep on backpeddling there, fella. He said back then (back when many Republicans were doubtful that the surge would work) that after defeating the headsawers we would move to a support phase and after that to a standby phase. This is what is happening now, more of less, and it is what makes the most sense

A withdrawl is a withdrawl caling it something else doesnt change that. If Mitt believes what he says then he should be honest enough to say it and not mince words.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:26 PM

Pollster.com is now doing supertuesday states some early indicators

O boy. Some more wide-ranging upwind peeing. When do the damn polls close? 8:00 CST?

argos on January 29, 2008 at 5:30 PM

When do the damn polls close? 8:00 CST?

argos on January 29, 2008 at 5:30 PM

Florida polls? Most at 7PM EST, all by 8PM EST.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:31 PM

In Miami-Dade County, the combined total of early and absentee votes — 129,083 — matched all votes cast during the 2000 presidential primary, when 12 percent of the county’s electorate turned out.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 4:45 PM

Maybe Rudy will leap a building in a single bound. Be nice. Then he and Mitt can battle it out and the country will benefit, whoever wins.

a capella on January 29, 2008 at 5:31 PM

A withdrawl is a withdrawl caling it something else doesnt change that. If Mitt believes what he says then he should be honest enough to say it and not mince words.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:26 PM

Mitt was never for “withdrawal”. And even Fred repeatedly said that we should be out of Iraq as soon as possible (but not before).

The overriding issue against McCain is immigration. We’ll have to see if Mitt’s attempt to shift the debate towards the economy and his competence and McCain’s back to Iraq and his magical support of everything good there, and attempting to accuse Mitt (falsely) of advocating what is commonly understood to be timetables for withdrawal are successful.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:32 PM

Maybe Rudy will leap a building in a single bound. Be nice. Then he and Mitt can battle it out and the country will benefit, whoever wins.

a capella on January 29, 2008 at 5:31 PM

Hate to break the news to you but that is heavy Hispanic american country.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:33 PM

If Florida is “unpunished” for their early primary date, it would just add to the number of delegates that the winner gets tonight (or early tomorrow morning).

Highhopes: Not to get too deep into the weeds of an unlikely scenario, but, FL, if it had not been punished is NOT a ‘winner-take-all-114′ state. It typically has been the same as CA, which is ‘winner-take-all-by congressional district’. So, assuming there are certain areas of Florida with lots of NYers, Rudy might very well win some districts, and thereby get some delegates to be able to “barter” with. I don’t truly see all this happening, but, until the polls close tonight, we all have nothing else to do anyway, but talk about stuff, so, figured I’d clear this up.

scott on January 29, 2008 at 5:36 PM

Hate to break the news to you but that is heavy Hispanic american country.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:33 PM

Yes, but they’re Cuban. You’ll find many Cubans are pro-enforcement on immigration. Rudy’s allegedly done well in the Miami area.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:36 PM

The overriding issue against McCain is immigration. We’ll have to see if Mitt’s attempt to shift the debate towards the economy and his competence and McCain’s back to Iraq and his magical support of everything good there, and attempting to accuse Mitt (falsely) of advocating what is commonly understood to be timetables for withdrawal are successful.

True and I have never sugarcoated McCain’s Immigration stance. He deserves to be roasted on that and he is struggling mostly because he was such an ass on that issue.

Mitt is stronger than McCain on a lot of issues. He is however not stronger on National defense. If Mitt wants to back conventional timetables then HONESTLY say he wants us out of Iraq not sidestep the issue. The case can be made that the WOT isnt all about Iraq. However mitt is weak everywhere on that issue not just Iraq.

However Mitt is stronger on the economy and on Immigration and on various other issues. I will have no problem supporting him as the nominee in november I just hope we get someone who is stong on National defense on his team. Id like to see Bolton as his Secretary of state that would allay alot of my fears.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:37 PM

Hate to break the news to you but that is heavy Hispanic american country.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:33 PM

Yeah but mostly Cuban, with a lot of Rep’s among them.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 5:38 PM

I just hope we get someone who is stong on National defense on his team. Id like to see Bolton as his Secretary of state that would allay alot of my fears.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:37 PM

Don’t think he could be confirmed.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 5:40 PM

A withdrawl is a withdrawl caling it something else doesnt change that. If Mitt believes what he says then he should be honest enough to say it and not mince words.

S T O P the lies. Mitt supported the surge. He expected it to succeed. He understood/understands what is at stake. YOU (and McCain) are the ones who trying to deceive here. OF COURSE we will withdraw from Iraq. But we will do so after winning the fight, after securing the peace, and on our terms. Mitt’s position on this is the direct opposite of the democrat’s. Try as you may, you cannot bury that truth. And I pity you for your demogogic dementia.

argos on January 29, 2008 at 5:41 PM

Mitt is stronger than McCain on a lot of issues. He is however not stronger on National defense. If Mitt wants to back conventional timetables then HONESTLY say he wants us out of Iraq not sidestep the issue. The case can be made that the WOT isnt all about Iraq. However mitt is weak everywhere on that issue not just Iraq.

I listened to Mark Levin show last night. He supposedly spent the whole Saturday digging up quotes from Mitt about his support or lack thereof for timetables for withdrawal. All he could find is the now well-known quote about Bush and Maliki having some non-public timetables and milestones. In Levin’s lawyer mind that did not constitute and endorsement for withdrawal as understood at the time. I took it the same way.

I had followed every piece of news from Iraq daily up until about a months ago for a year. I am familiar with what code language those who wanted out ASAP on the Republican side used. Mitt’s wasn’t that language.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:41 PM

Mitt’s tanking slightly on Intrade. Not so good.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:44 PM

S T O P the lies. Mitt supported the surge. He expected it to succeed. He understood/understands what is at stake. YOU (and McCain) are the ones who trying to deceive here. OF COURSE we will withdraw from Iraq. But we will do so after winning the fight, after securing the peace, and on our terms. Mitt’s position on this is the direct opposite of the democrat’s. Try as you may, you cannot bury that truth. And I pity you for your demogogic dementia.

Click on the link Mitt says he expects to be in stage 3 (completely out of Iraq) within one year. Is that really possible ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:44 PM

Don’t think he could be confirmed.

JiangxiDad on January 29, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Unfortunately I agree. But would be nice to see.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:45 PM

Hate to break the news to you but that is heavy Hispanic american country.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:33 PM

hate to break the news to you but Romney outpolls McSenor with Latinos in Florida 44% to 22%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d0d849db-d15a-4dea-bad9-4a491e8d108c

windansea on January 29, 2008 at 5:46 PM

Mitt by a field goal!

Vigilante on January 29, 2008 at 5:47 PM

Click on the link Mitt says he expects to be in stage 3 (completely out of Iraq) within one year. Is that really possible ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:44 PM

Gates and Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno see all 18 provinces under Iraqi control by the end of the year, with U.S. troops solely in a support role.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:47 PM

hate to break the news to you but Romney outpolls McSenor with Latinos in Florida 44% to 22%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d0d849db-d15a-4dea-bad9-4a491e8d108c

windansea on January 29, 2008 at 5:46 PM

Interesting then it says that White Voters tend to favor McCain over Romney do you think that is true ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:49 PM

Gates and Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno see all 18 provinces under Iraqi control by the end of the year, with U.S. troops solely in a support role.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:47 PM

But troops still in Iraq yes ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:50 PM

AP early exit polls (issues only)

RISING IMPORTANCE FOR FALLING ECONOMY

Given four choices, nearly half of Florida Republican primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country. Terrorism, Iraq and immigration each were picked by fewer than two in 10.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:50 PM

Hate to break the news to you but that is heavy Hispanic american country.

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:33 PM

It’s even heavier Democrat country. I’d guess the vast majority of those ballots were Dem ballots.

Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 5:51 PM

Also from AP, just minutes ago:

MORE DEMOGRAPHIC TIDBITS …

- Eight in 10 Republican primary voters were white and a little more than one in 10 were Hispanic – about half of whom were of Cuban heritage. There were few blacks on the GOP side. In the Democratic primary, two-thirds were white, about one in five were black and a little more than one in 10 were Hispanic.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:53 PM

It’s even heavier Democrat country. I’d guess the vast majority of those ballots were Dem ballots.

Hollowpoint on January 29, 2008 at 5:51 PM

Hillary surge ! Watch out for cries from the Clinton campaign about racism against not counting Hispanic votes !

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:53 PM

But troops still in Iraq yes ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:50 PM

Whatever’s left of our troops in Iraq by that time will only be in support roles.

And according to John we’ll have troops in Iraq for possibly 100 years, correct?

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:54 PM

I’m about to head out and cast my ballot for good ol’ Mitt.
To be honest, I was a Fred guy, and never considered Mitt as I figured he must be fairly liberal since he was Gov. of Mass. He did not become a serious consideration until Coulter put her support behind him (I figure if she’s going to back him he must be somewhat conservative) Well thats probably TMI but I felt like sharing.

infidel2 on January 29, 2008 at 5:55 PM

Whatever’s left of our troops in Iraq by that time will only be in support roles.

And according to John we’ll have troops in Iraq for possibly 100 years, correct?

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:54 PM

Mitt said all troops out of the contry in a year. And yes McCain said that we might have to stay in Iraq for a long time. Does Mitt still pull out and leave Sadr in Charge ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:56 PM

Whatever’s left of our troops in Iraq by that time will only be in support roles.

And according to John we’ll have troops in Iraq for possibly 100 years, correct?

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:54 PM

There will be troops in Iraq “forever”, unless Obama wins.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 5:57 PM

Mitt said all troops out of the contry in a year. And yes McCain said that we might have to stay in Iraq for a long time. Does Mitt still pull out and leave Sadr in Charge ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:56 PM

Um, no? He supported milestones set forth confidentially between Bush and Maliki.

And I can’t wait for the Dems to play that 100 years soundbite for the, oh, 60% of the electorate that wants troops home…within the year.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 5:58 PM

Um, no? He supported milestones set forth confidentially between Bush and Maliki.

Good greif who do you think backs Maliki in power in Iraq ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 6:00 PM

In

teresting then it says that White Voters tend to favor McCain over Romney do you think that is true ?

McCain only leads Mitt by 4% among whites in that poll whcih is within MOE

here’s another one where they tie for whites, Mitt still wins Latinos by double digits

Comon you freakin Cubans!

windansea on January 29, 2008 at 6:01 PM

Good greif who do you think backs Maliki in power in Iraq ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 6:00 PM

So, what’s your solution?

And again, I’d love to see the sound bite played for the 60% of the electorate that wants troops out within the year.

amerpundit on January 29, 2008 at 6:03 PM

Over at NRO:

The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent.

ConservativePartyNow on January 29, 2008 at 6:03 PM

First (?) Wave of Florida Exits, Revealed

The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 6:04 PM

Romney has completely tanked on Intrade.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 6:05 PM

More Democrat Shenanigans.

Dorvillian on January 29, 2008 at 6:16 PM

Mittster coming back up to his daily average.

Igor R. on January 29, 2008 at 6:29 PM

S T O P the lies. Mitt supported the surge. He expected it to succeed. He understood/understands what is at stake. YOU (and McCain) are the ones who trying to deceive here. OF COURSE we will withdraw from Iraq. But we will do so after winning the fight, after securing the peace, and on our terms. Mitt’s position on this is the direct opposite of the democrat’s. Try as you may, you cannot bury that truth. And I pity you for your demogogic dementia.

Click on the link Mitt says he expects to be in stage 3 (completely out of Iraq) within one year. Is that really possible ?

William Amos on January 29, 2008 at 5:44 PM

1) No, he did NOT say that. He said that, optimistically, we could get into stage 2 sometime in 2008. And I think he’s pretty close to right about that. I think we ARE getting close to where our guys can serve primarily as support to Iraqi forces, and in significantly reduced numbers. He does not, however, attempt a guess at when could we get to stage 3 (i.e., what you scurriliously call “retreat”).

2) You marked your stupid link, that doesn’t say what you want it to say, with:
“Romney wants retreat from Iraq” — which is a flat out McCainian lie. In the remarks you cite, which I have listened to twice now, Mitt CLEARLY stakes out a pro-victory, ANTI-cut-n-run position. He has NEVER advocated retreat. And you know it! But, like a good little pinklet, you go ahead and repeat the lie regardless. It’s all about the message to you & your ilk — the truth means nothing.

argos on January 29, 2008 at 7:26 PM

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