Florida: Predictions

Get ‘em in now. How close is it? Dude. Mitt has the 10-to-1 ad advantage, Maverick has the endorsements. Verdict: Rudy, baby, in an upset! No, no, kidding. I’ll pick McCain, for no better reason than that the campaign has seemed to revolve entirely around him for the past week. Or, if that’s not good enough, try this:

[E]arly voting in Florida began January 14, and Thompson departed the race on January 22. There’s about a week’s worth of Thompson votes in there that might have gone for another GOP candidate.

“Another GOP candidate” being, of course, Mitt. As for the mayor, Riehl sends word that he’s already in parting gift mode vis-a-vis his staffers. Portrait of a man looking for the exit:

When Mr. Giuliani wandered back to take a few questions, some of them had a fairly bearish bent. Asked what he would do the day after the primary, Mr. Giuliani said: “When it’s Wednesday morning, we’ll make a decision. The reality is the voting hasn’t even started yet, at least the Jan. 29 voting hasn’t started yet. I believe we’re going to win.”

Money appears to be in short supply. The campaign tried to hoard its cash during the earlier contests, in the hope that it would be able to overwhelm its exhausted rivals once they arrived here with their coffers depleted. That does not seem to have worked out as planned. As loss after loss made fund-raising more challenging — Mr. Giuliani finished behind Representative Ron Paul of Texas in all of the early contests except New Hampshire — Mr. McCain, of Arizona, saw his fund-raising improve after he won in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And Mr. Romney started to invest heavily in Florida after his victory in Michigan; senior Giuliani campaign aides, meanwhile, have agreed to work without pay.

There’s a debate tomorrow night so he’s not kidding about having to decide tomorrow morning. Exit question: Can it really be true? “This is typical of the hard Right. It’s what they do. They don’t understand how to win elections, because Rush Limbaugh isn’t interested in electing a president. These people don’t care. They’re interested in listenership; it’s not the same thing.”

Update: Another reason for Rudy to get out quick rather than go to New York and be humiliated: He’s got the Giuliani brand to think about.

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