Giuliani hints at dropping out after Florida

posted at 5:30 pm on January 28, 2008 by Allahpundit

I thought for sure he’d hang around for New York and California, if only not to disappoint his supporters with a one-and-done down south. But McCain’s crushing him in both states now, so much so that he may not even need Giuliani to drop out and free up centrist voters. With no leverage to make a deal and no hope of competing unless he pulls a miracle tomorrow night, what’s the point in sticking around just to get blown out on his home field?

Bottom line: A guy in third place doesn’t raise expectations unless he’s looking for an escape hatch.

Rudy Giuliani appears to be pondering an end to his long pursuit of the Republican presidential nomination.

In a meeting in the back of his chartered plane en route to St. Petersburg, Fla., a short while ago, the onetime, longtime GOP front-runner told a small group of reporters, including The Times’ Louise Roug: “The winner of Florida will win the nomination.”

That’s an unusually categorical statement suggesting that only a total upset for Giuliani, who trails both Mitt Romney and John McCain in all major polls for Florida’s Republican primary tomorrow, will keep him in the competition, despite previous repeated vows to continue…

In his meeting with reporters today, Giuliani added that, no matter what happens Tuesday, he definitely would participate in the Republican debate co-sponsored by The Times on Wednesday at the Reagan Library.

He’s going to debate, then drop out? Why? WaPo’s hearing rumbles, too:

Giuliani’s plans [for Super Tuesday] are perhaps the most up in the air and will change according to the outcome of the Florida primary, aides said. A surprise victory might open the door to visits in other states, they said. A defeat probably would force him to pull back and concentrate on his home state, though recent polls show him struggling in New York as well as in California. His advisers have long suggested that both states are must-wins if he wants to secure the nomination.

A loss in Florida could also end Giuliani’s campaign. Advisers say he will consider the downside to fighting on to Feb. 5, including the potential for an embarrassing loss in his home state, the likelihood that he could finish at the bottom in more than a dozen states and a lack of money to continue.

Exit question one: Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass, who ran a worse campaign — Fred or Rudy? Exit question two, to the long-suffering Paulnuts: How good do you feel about outlasting Giuliani? And, follow-up, is your enjoyment at all compromised by the fact that the rEVOLution is still running at about one-half or even one-third of even Rudy’s collapsed popularity?


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Comments

Its going to come down to Mccain, Romney and Paul

Just curious, would HA readers be opposed to a Romney/Paul ticket? Seems like a solid ticket given both of them have good economic ideas and background

offroadaz on January 28, 2008 at 5:31 PM

Yeah, don’t let Paul anywhere near the ticket. We have enough problems than running a racist against Obama.

Rudy goes out? Hope most of his supporters will go to Mitt.

Vanceone on January 28, 2008 at 5:33 PM

A New Yorker once told my Rudy drops out of races he thinks he can’t win.

EJDolbow on January 28, 2008 at 5:33 PM

Someone needs to get the bug in Guiliani’s ear to start talking about the ICC and McCain’s support of it. How do you contact campaigns?

Sue on January 28, 2008 at 5:34 PM

Just curious, would HA readers be opposed to a Romney/Paul ticket?

(a) Romney’s not putting a 73-year-old on the ticket, and Paul surely wouldn’t agree to run on his ticket anyway.
(b) I’d vote for either Obama or Hillary over a ticket with Paul.

Allahpundit on January 28, 2008 at 5:34 PM

I’ll vote for Paul. He strongly opposes the US becoming a part of the ICC.

Sue on January 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM

Just curious, would HA readers be opposed to a Romney/Paul ticket? Seems like a solid ticket given both of them have good economic ideas and background

offroadaz on January 28, 2008 at 5:31 PM

This one would. His newsletter shennanigans are an anchor around the neck of anyone associated with him. He needs to shuffle offstage as soon as possible.

a capella on January 28, 2008 at 5:36 PM

In a BBC Worldservice televised debate before the World Economic Forum on Friday January 28th (2005), Senator John McCain (R- AZ) declared his support for the United States joining the International Criminal Court (ICC), asserting: “I want us in the ICC.”

http://whereistand.com/JohnMcCain/1399

Sue on January 28, 2008 at 5:38 PM

A New Yorker once told my Rudy drops out of races he thinks he can’t win.

EJDolbow on January 28, 2008 at 5:33 PM

Isn’t that the reason for most politicians who drop out of races?

CP on January 28, 2008 at 5:38 PM

And, follow-up, is your enjoyment at all compromised by the fact that the rEVOLution is still running at about one-half or even one-third of even Rudy’s collapsed popularity?

Paul will probably finish with more delegates, though… leading 6 dels to 1, or something close.

Vizzini on January 28, 2008 at 5:39 PM

Isn’t that the reason for most politicians who drop out of races?

CP on January 28, 2008 at 5:38 PM

Yes but Rudy drops out earlier than he should given the cyclical nature of campaigns.

EJDolbow on January 28, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Just curious, would HA readers be opposed to a Romney/Paul ticket? Seems like a solid ticket given both of them have good economic ideas and background

offroadaz on January 28, 2008 at 5:31 PM

If Paul is anywhere near the ticket I’ll vote against it. We don’t need his baggage, conspiracy theories, Neo-Nazi supporters, etc.

amerpundit on January 28, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Just curious, would HA readers be opposed to a Romney/Paul ticket?

A Romney/Paul ticket doesn’t even make any sense. Mitt doesn’t need Paul’s supporters to win in the general, a good chunk would probably feel portrayed if he were to join in with a “prowar, CFR, fascist, neocon”. Ron Paul has said that he has doubts about evan voting for any republican candidate would he really join in a ticket with one? And he surely wouldn’t keep quiet about the evil american war mongering empire.

Complete7 on January 28, 2008 at 5:44 PM

Are rumors of Rudy dropping out a last-minute attempt by McCain to capture Giuliani fence-sitters?

CliffHanger on January 28, 2008 at 5:44 PM

Romney/Paul ticket?

offroadaz on January 28, 2008 at 5:31 PM

Now that’s just silly!

Frozen Tex on January 28, 2008 at 5:45 PM

bye

ThePrez on January 28, 2008 at 5:45 PM

Exit question one: Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass, who ran a worse campaign — Fred or Rudy?

Rudy, no question. For a while early in the game it seemed like he was the inevitable candidate…a smart move would have been to play that up & run in every state. Instead, he just banked on his fame thinking nothing else would happen to change things prior to Florida. BAAAAAD strategy.

Tim on January 28, 2008 at 5:48 PM

Exit question one: Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass, who ran a worse campaign — Fred or Rudy?

Wow…that’s a tough one actually. While I think Rudy was banking on Hillary being inevitable and fear of her, and was focused on the general, he never bothered with a contingency plan if the Hildebeest’s campaign stumbled. It did, and now he’s pretty much done for. Fred’s campaign was just a mess, and he could never effectively tap into the grassroots that backed him. We’ll just say they were both really lousy campaign.

doubleplusundead on January 28, 2008 at 5:48 PM

GOOD

unseen on January 28, 2008 at 5:49 PM

Exit question one: Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass, who ran a worse campaign — Fred or Rudy?

From an ROI perspective, Rudy ran THE worst campaign among all candidates from both parties.

That said, I hope Rudy stays in it for Super-Duper Mega Tuesday. He may draw just enough votes away from McCain in CA and NY to help Mitt.

CliffHanger on January 28, 2008 at 5:52 PM

Giuliani hints at dropping out after Florida

I have a better idea Rudy, drop out BEFORE Florida! That way Mitt will beat McCainabee by an even greater margin.

Tony737 on January 28, 2008 at 5:55 PM

Tony737 on January 28, 2008 at 5:55 PM

You’re assuming Rudy will pull more votes from Mitt than McCain. Does anyone have any statistics as to second-choices?

amerpundit on January 28, 2008 at 5:56 PM

Exit question one: Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass, who ran a worse campaign — Fred or Rudy?

Rudy. He’s been planning his run since at least 2006 (and possibly 2005) and even with a strong, well funded organization still blew it due to bad strategy.

Fred got in relatively late and ran a disorganized campaign, but at least made a strong effort in IA and SC because he recognized the importance of doing well there. It wasn’t enough, but still- he at least recognized what needed to be done and made and effort to do it, even if it was too little, too late.

Hollowpoint on January 28, 2008 at 5:59 PM

See ya Rudy.

Geronimo on January 28, 2008 at 6:01 PM

Just curious, would HA readers be opposed to a Romney/Paul ticket?
offroadaz on January 28, 2008 at 5:31 PM

You seriously thought this was a question worth asking? I don’t much care for Mitt, but any candidate who thought to nominate Paul for VP lacks the judgement to be anywhere near the White House.

Hollowpoint on January 28, 2008 at 6:03 PM

Let it be known the media destroyed Giuliani. FoxNews and the rest of the gang have solely reported on polls. That’s it. Polls and controversies. They don’t talk about issues, platforms, or history. just polls and controversy.

The other thing that killed off Rudy was local GOP clubs. for whatever reason, McCain was able to get county and state presidents to carry water for him, and get him officially endorsed before primaries. That’s the way the game works, and a guy whose been in national politics for as long as McCain will have that ability.

Let’s hope one day Fox News starts reporting on real issues, electability, and histories of candidates.

Vincenzo on January 28, 2008 at 6:04 PM

Exit question one: Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass, who ran a worse campaign — Fred or Rudy?

ruDe has had the worst campaign in history. Dean was a great story because he ‘came from nowhere’. Billy Jeff touted as the ‘comeback kid’ for losing (not so badly) in NH. Truman beat Dewey after being left for dead.

ruDe had frontrunner status, leading in early primary states, had establishment backing, money backing, name recognition, media capital of the world platform in New York, and he still lost. ruDe’s campaign will be studied as how NOT to run a campaign. Fred!s campaign was bad, but ruDe’s campaign was more tragic than a Shakespear.

Where will the ruDe supporters go now?

ThackerAgency on January 28, 2008 at 6:05 PM

Hannity is a ruDe supporter. . . where is he going to go?

ThackerAgency on January 28, 2008 at 6:06 PM

Thacker,

and just what exactly did Fred! do correctly, or more imporantly, better than Rudy?

Beyond your discontent for Rudy, and your wacky spellings of his name, I bet you got nothing to support your little statement there.

Vincenzo on January 28, 2008 at 6:06 PM

All I can say is “Don’t touch that dail”.(dating myself perhaps lol). But this is like a Batman episode where we don’t know which one is Batman and which one is the Joker.

Tune in to the next debate and next primary to find out if Catwoman will prevail or Batman will once again triumph over Liberalism.!!!! :)

Nelsa on January 28, 2008 at 6:10 PM

Exit question one, worst one first:
1) Ron (not being out doesn’t mean it isn’t the worst)
2) Rudy (Spent huge money and time to do no better than Fred)
3) Fred (At least he helped cripple Huckabee and spent less time and money getting that much done)

Exit Question 2: Some of Paul’s people are saying he will come up big on Super Tuesday. They are too delusional to realize the bus has left them behind long ago.

michaelo on January 28, 2008 at 6:13 PM

Exit Question 2: Some of Paul’s people are saying he will come up big on Super Tuesday. They are too delusional to realize the bus has left them behind long ago.

michaelo on January 28, 2008 at 6:13 PM

Only the regular bus; the short bus is ready and waiting for them to get back onboard.

Frozen Tex on January 28, 2008 at 6:19 PM

I don’t much care for Mitt, but any candidate who thought to nominate Paul for VP lacks the judgement to be anywhere near the White House.

Hollowpoint on January 28, 2008 at 6:03 PM

Mitt is my guy and I can tell you if Paul was on the ticket there is no way I would vote for him. But let’s be real, there is no way Mitt puts Paul on the ticket. The only one from the original candidates that I could see paired to Mitt is Fred.

lan astaslem on January 28, 2008 at 6:19 PM

Like the 4th of July. At the end of the fireworks show, everybody turns and looks at each other as if to say, “Is that it?”

whitetop on January 28, 2008 at 6:20 PM

Rudy gambled wrong.

He’ll make a strong Veep.

McCain will make a nice, pugnacious, loser senator.

Paul will be selling model blimps in front of Blimpies.

Mitt is it.

profitsbeard on January 28, 2008 at 6:21 PM

Hannity is a ruDe supporter. . . where is he going to go?

ThackerAgency on January 28, 2008 at 6:06 PM

Romney (see the Lindsey Graham slam)

lan astaslem on January 28, 2008 at 6:21 PM

Romney/Thompson 2008? Isn’t that what MM’s poll came up with? I am seeing that combination more and more in the BLOGS.
As a FredHead, it works for me……

Nelsa on January 28, 2008 at 6:22 PM

Exit question one: Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass, who ran a worse campaign — Fred or Rudy?

That is a tough question. Rudy’s fall was far greater. He was way up in the polls and seemed perfectly positioned to stroll to the nomination, then Whamm!!! McCain won NH and everyone simultaneously took off their Rudy buttons and put on McCain buttons. His fall was so dramatic and so fast, I’m sure he is scratching his head saying WTF happened — and really there is no rational explanation. Rudy didn’t eat any children or kill any puppies.

His strategy really was not the problem. He was not going to beat the bible thumping Huck in Iowa no matter what. And he did not really abandon the early states because he really tried in NH, but inexplicably all his voters switch to McCain en mass.

So, Rudy didn’t do anything “wrong” but his failure was hugh, because he was the frontrunner. Whereas Fred (the pro-choice terrorist enabling career lobbyist) never really had a chance and was just angling for VEEPEE. You can point to decisions by Fred that cost him — reshuffling campaign staff, insulting NH by dissing their debate for Leno, silly hat, Gucci loafers, general laziness, etc. The list goes on and on.

Fred ran a worse campaign, but he never had a legitimate chance. Rudy ran a better campaign but failed inexplicably more craptastically.

tommylotto on January 28, 2008 at 6:25 PM

I miss Tancredo

lorien1973 on January 28, 2008 at 6:26 PM

the question is what 3rd party would take the taint of Paul longterm, for short term fame, and let him run 3rd party?

jp on January 28, 2008 at 6:26 PM

Romney/Thompson 2008? Isn’t that what MM’s poll came up with? I am seeing that combination more and more in the BLOGS.
As a FredHead, it works for me……

Nelsa on January 28, 2008 at 6:22 PM

Fredheads

lan astaslem on January 28, 2008 at 6:35 PM

Fred ran a worse campaign, but he never had a legitimate chance. Rudy ran a better campaign but failed inexplicably more craptastically.

tommylotto on January 28, 2008 at 6:25 PM

So the guy who “never had a legitimate chance” and lost ran a worse campaign than the one who was all but inevitable and lost due to bad strategy? Your logic escapes me.

His fall from grace isn’t “inexplicable”, it’s plain to see- he ran a horrible campaign.

Hollowpoint on January 28, 2008 at 6:38 PM

Does anybody know anything about this man or his credentials?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCNUFrG42Z0

annexwcp on January 28, 2008 at 6:43 PM

Just curious, would HA readers be opposed to a Romney/Paul ticket?

Wouldn’t happen. Romney has too many friends who are “international bankers” wink wink.

Lehosh on January 28, 2008 at 6:44 PM

I am tentatively joyus that Rudy might be dropping out. There will possibly be one less liberal in the Republican primaries. Maybe.

Rode Werk on January 28, 2008 at 6:46 PM

Romney might get the Nomination but does he have a BLIMP !/Ronulan

William Amos on January 28, 2008 at 6:46 PM

I fell kinda sad for Rudy. ALl dress up in his prom dress and no one invites him to the prom

William Amos on January 28, 2008 at 6:47 PM

This is disappointing for me. Been for Rudy all along! If it happens, I won’t have any qualms about voting for Romney.

SouthernGent on January 28, 2008 at 6:49 PM

and just what exactly did Fred! do correctly, or more imporantly, better than Rudy?

Beyond your discontent for Rudy, and your wacky spellings of his name, I bet you got nothing to support your little statement there.

1) Rated better in debates.
2) Eventually put in the effort in an early state where he was behind, and he did pick up some percentage points there.
3) From a statistical standpoint, Rudy pretty much went nowhere but down. With Fred there were ups and downs, but at least there were ups! He got some buzz from time to time. In the last couple months, Rudy just hasn’t been there.

viking999 on January 28, 2008 at 6:55 PM

And by the way, I do like Rudy just fine. It’s not bias, he’s my second fav right now. I’ve never minded the prospect of Rudy being the candidate.

P.S. – Oh yeah, and I think Rudy was probably planning this a bit longer than Fred.

viking999 on January 28, 2008 at 6:59 PM

Yikes on this. CNN/LA Times California poll

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/8156.html

Republicans also appear to be settling in on their choices.

According to the new poll McCain leads Romney 39 percent to 26 percent, with Rudy Giuliani a distant third at 13 percent and Mike Huckabee picking up 11 percent. The margin of error for the poll was 4.5 percent.
Those results, based on interviews with 437 likely Republican primary voters, mark a significant improvement for the Arizona senator, who led Romney by only four points – within the margin of error – in the Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times poll two weeks earlier.

Support for McCain appears to be firming up, with only 4 percent of likely GOP primary voters undecided, compared to 11 percent in the last survey.

William Amos on January 28, 2008 at 7:00 PM

In California [Rich Lowry]
New Gallup poll has it McCain 36, Romney 31, and LAT has it McCain 39, Romney 26 (h/t RCP). It will get even tighter if Romney can pull off a win tomorrow. Nationally, Rasmussen daily track now has Romney slightly ahead, 28-26, although Gallup track still has McCain solidly ahead.

California is not a winner take all state.

lan astaslem on January 28, 2008 at 7:13 PM

If Paul is anywhere near the ticket I’ll vote against it. We don’t need his baggage, conspiracy theories, Neo-Nazi supporters, etc.

amerpundit on January 28, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Ditto for me. And you can add his supporters here at HA, like the ever stupid Muyoso.

JiangxiDad on January 28, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Thacker,

and just what exactly did Fred! do correctly, or more imporantly, better than Rudy?

Beyond your discontent for Rudy, and your wacky spellings of his name, I bet you got nothing to support your little statement there.

Vincenzo on January 28, 2008 at 6:06 PM

I’m going to thoroughly enjoy every time you capitalize the third letter of the R nomination’s name for the next 5 years and remember my discontented wacky spelling of ruDe.

You are obviously a ruDe supporter and have been a ruDe supporter all this time. You above all should know that Fred! beat ruDe in several key states. Also, Fred! didn’t have to abandon his lifelong loyalties to the Yankee’s as ruDe did to pander for votes in NH. ruDe was winning there at one point.

So, Rudy didn’t do anything “wrong” but his failure was hugh

Ahh yes Tommy. . . declaring failure before the battle has even begun. . . at the same time not taking any responsibility. OF COURSE it’s not ruDe’s fault that nobody wants to vote for him. ruDe didn’t do anything ‘wrong’ he was just bad.

I’m just glad all of the ruDe supporters are going away now. And oh yes, I am loving every moment of pwning ruDe and all of his ruDe supporters.

ThackerAgency on January 28, 2008 at 7:15 PM

tommylotto on January 28, 2008 at 6:25 PM

Rudy ran the worst campaign in history. It has become a laughingstock– the campaign that never began. And his strategy was that since nobody else was all that well known back when it began, he would win.

The only flaw in his strategy was that Rudy didn’t count on the other candidates campaigning.

JiangxiDad on January 28, 2008 at 7:17 PM

William Amos on January 28, 2008 at 7:00 PM

California changed the rules this year. It is no longer “awinner take all” in the delegate battle. The vote will be divided.

“New rules adopted by the state party, meanwhile, have scrapped winner-take-all voting in favor of a system that awards three delegates to the victor in each of the state’s 53 congressional districts. That change, coupled with the state’s decision to move its primary date, has scrambled the Republican contest less than a year before it takes place.

“It’s like a mini-Electoral College,” Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, said of California. “It’s going to help make the nominee and have a lot of sway.”

HMMMMMMM?

Nelsa on January 28, 2008 at 7:18 PM

Exit question two, to the long-suffering Paulnuts: How good do you feel about outlasting Giuliani?

Great! Rudy was the supposed front runner for a good long while, and has — what — half the votes Ron Paul has? Not to mention that Ron Paul has two 2nd place finishes to Rudy’s one, and Paul has three times as many pledged delegates. Even if I hadn’t already voted for Paul, I’d be happy to see Rudy get his authoritarian yankee butt handed to him by a long-shot candidate.

And, follow-up, is your enjoyment at all compromised by the fact that the rEVOLution is still running at about one-half or even one-third of even Rudy’s collapsed popularity?

Doesn’t really count if he drops out before that support gets locked in now, does it? Doesn’t really matter what California thinks of him… they might not even get a chance.

Obviously I don’t expect Paul to win. He’s not really in it to win, even though he obviously can’t come out and say that.

Mark Jaquith on January 28, 2008 at 7:26 PM

Allahpundit on January 28, 2008 at 5:34 PM

aahh….. nah, I won’t touch this one.

jerrytbg on January 28, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Assuming the predicted catastrophe comes to pass

Entrance Question: Why is Rudy dropping out a “catastrophe” by any definition of the word?

Rudy has run a surprisingly bad campaign. The catastrophe here would be nominating a guy that doesn’t recognize that hanging out in Florida instead of campaigning for office is a bad way of getting elected.

Romney went out after Nevada when he saw it a better chance to pick up delegates than South Carolina. McCain did the same thing when splitting his time between Iowa and New Hampshire That’s strategy. Rudy stayed in Florida while far too much of the process was done with him less visible than Fred Thompson (hard to do).

highhopes on January 28, 2008 at 10:40 PM

I predicted this.

Huck will follow soon. There will be a brokered convention with Romney, McCain, and Paul.

fossten on January 29, 2008 at 12:25 AM

Rodney Guliani? Huh? Oh, it’s Rudy? My mistake. So, this Rudy guy-who is he supporting for President?

Doug on January 29, 2008 at 1:31 AM

The funny thing is that Giuliani’s strategy looked like it might work after the first three contested states (Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan) came up with three different winners.

As for Ron Paul, his supporters will give up on him somewhere in mid-2010.

Brainster on January 29, 2008 at 12:20 PM