WaPo: Biggest beneficiary of Fred’s dropout is … McCain? Update: Or is it?
posted at 8:30 pm on January 22, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
So we don’t even get the silver lining of a Romney boost out of today’s very dark cloud.
And when I say “very dark,” I mean very dark. Look who does second best among Fred voters.
Reallocating his supporters from most recent Post-ABC national poll to their second choices (same for California congressman Duncan Hunter who also recently ended his bid): McCain 30%, Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, Paul 5%.
The only consolation I have to offer you is that the nutroots, via their boosterism for John “Four Percent” Edwards, are even less relevant than we are.
Go read former Thompson employee Patrick Cox at PJM describe how Fred’s poor organization and late entry left him fatally weak on the ground as the campaign got rolling.
Update: Readers are telling me I’ve misread the WaPo analysis. It’s not that 30% of Fred’s voters are breaking towards McCain; it’s that if you reallocate Fred’s 7% of supporters proportionally among his second choices, McCain gains 2% and moves from 28% to 30% overall. Romney actually picks up 3% to move from 15% to 18%, so he’s the biggest beneficiary. By, er, a whole percentage point.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2
The tired old false dichotomy of Bush, Mccain, et al: “We can’t deport 12 million
undocumented workersillegal aliens, THEREFORE we have to make them citizens” is only used by dishonest brokers of Shamnesty who intentionally forget to mention the most popular choice (majority of Republicans AND Democrats) – attrition through enforecement. And why deny it when it is working just great in the four states that have enacted it so far? Just 46 more to go. Or simply do it at the federal level.Anyone who calls illegal aliens “undocumenteed workers”, or who avoids mentioning “attrition through enforcement”, is just not intellectually honest.
fred5678 on January 22, 2008 at 10:21 PM
And don’t forget Sheriff Joe!
I have my fingers crossed. Mitt is out last hope on this. Every other candidate, Rep. and Dem., is guaranteed to sign Shamnesty ‘09.
fred5678 on January 22, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Now that Conservative voters have failed to support what THEY have been whining for, Mitt is the closest thing to a genuine conservative! Go Mitt!
Gatordoug on January 22, 2008 at 10:28 PM
I respectfully disagree. You really believe that cracking down on large employers, gradually, will eventually lead to illegals just going home voluntarily?
I’m still for some sort of “amnesty” (I know, it leaves a sour taste in my mouth too…but let’s face reality) and for the love of America, build that fence! Although, the fence is unlikely to happen…
Little story: I managed a restaurant for a few years, and also called in the payroll each week. We had illegals in the kitchen, as do most restaurants, and they seem to come up with valid SS numbers, whether their stolen identities, or what have you, as long as the payroll company accepts it, it was out of my hands. In any event, these guys and gals were paying taxes, taken right out.
You say the biggest problem is with large corps hiring illegals. I don’t think that’s so…seeing so many independent restaurants, lawn care guys, nannies, what have you. A lot of guys have their own business…and a lot simply work odd jobs wherever they can find it. Agreed, many DO work for the big produce companies etc…but what’s the real percentage of those?
And I do agree with you on the “anchor baby” principle. A lot does need to be done about illegals. First and foremost, seal the borders and stop the influx. But then, what do you do about the millions (and I do believe the numbers are underestimated)? I can agree that if an illegal is convicted for a crime, it’s immediate deportation.
It’s really a tough issue. But your 3-4 year plan isn’t really that gradual…it would have to be more like 10-20 years. Either way, Congress is the body that has to act on this…not the POTUS.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 10:32 PM
It’s already happening in Arizona.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 10:41 PM
What are you talking about? It’s not a tough issue.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 10:43 PM
Only their not going “home”…they’re going to neighboring states.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 10:45 PM
Then what do you do? What’s the simple solution? There isn’t one.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 10:46 PM
That’s not Arizona’s problem. If the other states don’t like it they can take similar measures.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Well, if you want to make it a State problem, and call NIMBY, then it’s a moot point to use the illegal immigration problem in criticizing a current, or future, POTUS.
You have to understand, no matter what legislation states pass, it’s always better for themselves to stay in the US, rather than return home. They aren’t going away. So, what do we do? That’s the question…and there are no easy answers.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 10:57 PM
There are two basic causes of the illegal immigration problem that we have any control over.
1) Employers who hire illegal immigrants.
2) Entitlement programs illegal immigrants have access to.
The solution is to stop employers from hiring illegal immigrants to dry up the illegal job market and then prevent them from filing for welfare or unemployment. The only entitlement the illegals should expect at that point is a ride home. They’re welcome to take their belongings with them but they’ll have to pay for their own shipping.
See how simple it is?
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 10:59 PM
I didn’t say the federal government wasn’t shirking its duty to the citizens of this nation. I just said that Arizona isn’t duty bound to solve the illegal immigration problem of neighboring states.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 11:03 PM
By “themselves” I assume you’re referring to illegal immigrants? Why would they want to stay here if they can’t find jobs or collect welfare checks? What are they going to do to feed and cloth themselves?
Of course they’ll leave. They’re already leaving Arizona.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 11:06 PM
As a former supporter of Fred (not really a ‘head though), I could pull the lever for Mitt and not even need to hold my nose. The others….. very doubtful, AND, NEVER for McShamNASTY.
and, WeightOfGlory….
Aqui !
mrfixit on January 22, 2008 at 11:06 PM
They’ll find jobs, no matter what. Inexpensive labor always wins out. And again, they’ll leave…but not the US. Their only going to surrounding states where it’s simply easier for them.
You still haven’t answered tho…Is this a States problem, or a Federal issue?
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 11:13 PM
I have never, nor will ever, call them “undocumented workers”. Illegal is illegal. There’s already laws on the books on how to deal with illegals…so there’s no point in making new laws. Enforce the old one…except the government won’t do that. Precisely because it IS a complicated issue.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 11:19 PM
Dude.
Jaibones on January 22, 2008 at 11:26 PM
I answered that at 11:03, but to put it another way, illegal immigration is everybody’s problem.
Businesses are going to have a hell of a time justifying the hiring of illegal immigrants to their stockholders when their operating expenses skyrocket from all of the accumulated fees. The CEO’s and CFO’s are going to have a heck of a time running their companies behind bars.
The only employers that will continue to hire illegal immigrants are crooks.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 11:33 PM
And small businesses…which, and again I don’t know the stats…probably accounts for a very high percentage of illegals in the workplace.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 11:37 PM
That’s not true. The government won’t enforce the immigration law for a mixture of two different reasons. The first is that many politicians hope to turn illegal immigrants into a loyal, partisan voting block, and the second is that the employers that profit from illegal laborers don’t want the laws enforced, and the money they save by paying slave wages makes it easier for them to do various favors for politicians to ensure their support in the matter.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 11:41 PM
I think your opinion of small business owners is unnecessarily harsh. Most of them have enough business acumen to understand that the cost of cheap-labor + fines > legal-labor * 2 and that multiple offenses = criminal record and jail time.
And if you’re thinking that small business owners are going to be able to get away scot-free with hiring illegal laborers because nobody will ever know, don’t count on it. Some small percentage of the lowliest employers may be able to get away with it, but most won’t.
If I were operating a legal business, hiring legal workers, and my business was being harmed by a competitor using illegal laborers to undercut my prices, I would turn him into ICE long before I would fire my legal workers and file for bankruptcy.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 11:54 PM
Where will Fredheads go now? Ace’s poll
Romney 61.8% 778
Giuliani 17.6% 222
Stay Home/Write Fred In 11.8% 148
McCain 7.7% 97
Huckabee 1.1% 14
windansea on January 23, 2008 at 12:10 AM
The Free Republic poll at this point in time also shows Romney, to be the big winner from Fred’s pullout:
Mitt Romney 52.4%
None of them 19.4%
Staying home 7.5%
Rudy Giuliani 6.4%
Mike Huckabee 4.5%
John McCain 3.6%
Anyone but Mac 2.7%
Anyone but Huck 1.8%
Anyone but Rudy 1.2%
Anyone but Mitt 0.5%
Interesting that they didn’t even include Paul. There are quite a few Paulnuts over at FR.
LegendHasIt on January 23, 2008 at 1:04 AM
If was a poll for FredHeads, why would they include Paul? Name me one Fred supporter who has RuPaul as a second choice. These guys are polar opposites.
malan89 on January 23, 2008 at 7:43 AM
Then why is Sonora complaining so much?
Gianni on January 23, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2