WaPo: Biggest beneficiary of Fred’s dropout is … McCain? Update: Or is it?
posted at 8:30 pm on January 22, 2008 by Allahpundit
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So we don’t even get the silver lining of a Romney boost out of today’s very dark cloud.
And when I say “very dark,” I mean very dark. Look who does second best among Fred voters.
Reallocating his supporters from most recent Post-ABC national poll to their second choices (same for California congressman Duncan Hunter who also recently ended his bid): McCain 30%, Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, Paul 5%.
The only consolation I have to offer you is that the nutroots, via their boosterism for John “Four Percent” Edwards, are even less relevant than we are.
Go read former Thompson employee Patrick Cox at PJM describe how Fred’s poor organization and late entry left him fatally weak on the ground as the campaign got rolling.
Update: Readers are telling me I’ve misread the WaPo analysis. It’s not that 30% of Fred’s voters are breaking towards McCain; it’s that if you reallocate Fred’s 7% of supporters proportionally among his second choices, McCain gains 2% and moves from 28% to 30% overall. Romney actually picks up 3% to move from 15% to 18%, so he’s the biggest beneficiary. By, er, a whole percentage point.
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I just don’t believe it. Romney is the beneficiary of the votes - particularly in Florida, with Huckabee going elsewhere.
darkegop on January 22, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Sickening. I may be off to France soon.
fred5678 on January 22, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Allah,
My kiss of endorsement went to: Tancredo, Hunter and Thompson.
On to McCain!!!
mred on January 22, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Stop McCain, Vote Rudy!
Chakra Hammer on January 22, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Ugh. McCain should be the beneficiary of a stalled campaign…not of Fred’s voters’.
CABE on January 22, 2008 at 8:36 PM
This is a retarded analysis.
This benefits Mitt Romney.
iamse7en on January 22, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Uh oh.
Vizzini on January 22, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Convincing!
Vizzini on January 22, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Don’t believe the Washington Post. Most Thompson supporters (me included) will support Romney. I’ve read thousands of comments and have read many polls and Fred’s supporters aren’t going to McCain. I know it’s anecdotal, but the evidence is pretty strong.This is more wishful thinking from the MSM
liberty on January 22, 2008 at 8:40 PM
I’ll get right on that!
frankj on January 22, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Doesn’t this just prove that Romney isn’t electable. Time to get behind Rudy if you don’t want McCain.
froghat on January 22, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Tancredo (contributed), Hunter (contributed - and a delegate), Thompson (contributed), and now Romney (no contribution needed). At last I have a wealthy candidate to back.
fred5678 on January 22, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Yeah, I know a TON of FredHeads and Hunter lover’s that would pick RuPaul as their second choice. Who is taking part in this poll? It’s obvious that Fred dropping out helps Romney, and to a lesser extent, Rudy.
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 8:45 PM
Well, more Huckschmucks here at HA then? We’ll see. I’m guessing that that particular 20% aren’t signed up here in large numbers…or maybe they are! I battled a few so-called FH’s who seemed convinced McCain’s MSR exposed him as a traitor (I assumed they were false-flag Fredheads and actually Paulnuts). Maybe they were in another camp altogether. No love lost between Teh Fredheads and Huckschmucks.
AUINSC on January 22, 2008 at 8:45 PM
McCain v Hillary: Bitchiness to the nTH degree.
mred on January 22, 2008 at 8:45 PM
I call shenanigans. This is more of the MSM trying to play kingmaker.
liquidflorian on January 22, 2008 at 8:49 PM
No, I believe it. God help me, I might go McCain, even if it’s just because I don’t think he’ll be able to go 2 terms because of his age.
TexasDan on January 22, 2008 at 8:49 PM
On the face of it, Fred voters going to McCain makes absolutely no sense for oh-so obvious reasons. But this election cycle hasn’t made sense so far so why start now?
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 8:49 PM
If they say it enough times more people will believe them. We must resist!
SouthernGent on January 22, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Dark. Very very dark.
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Screw ‘em. We know the truth.
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 8:51 PM
I keep trying to tell you people…McCain is the best choice for us former FredHeads! I see a McCain/Thompson ticket in my crystal ball…
Cry all you want about “amnesty”…and I’m not thrilled with it either, but something has to be done. No one is ever going to hav 12-20 million people deported, that’s for sure.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 8:51 PM
How will the Heath Ledger death effect the GOP race?
froghat on January 22, 2008 at 8:52 PM
WAPO pimping for McQueeg.
What a surprise.
ROMNEY-RUDY 2008.
profitsbeard on January 22, 2008 at 8:53 PM
GAHHHH!!!!
AbaddonsReign on January 22, 2008 at 8:55 PM
And CFR, tax cuts, gun control, gang of 14, ANWR drilling, fuel economy restrictions, McCain-Lieberman Climate Act….need I go on???
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 8:55 PM
more heart-ache. :(
PolitiNOOB on January 22, 2008 at 8:56 PM
How many people here take issue with McCain for more reasons than just his amnesty plan, say “aqiu.”
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Ummmmm. that would be “aqui”
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 8:57 PM
I agree.
Zorro on January 22, 2008 at 8:57 PM
That’s what I get for trying to be too cute. Jeez.
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 8:57 PM
See above…
aquí
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 8:58 PM
acqui
RushBaby on January 22, 2008 at 8:58 PM
same aqui
RushBaby on January 22, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Bullcrap. Mitt will get a bump. The poll was taken 1/12; way before Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina. Much has happened since January 12th to change peoples minds.
Polls late this week will give some indication of where Fred’s suporters have gone.
BacaDog on January 22, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Madre de Dios!
Acqui.
profitsbeard on January 22, 2008 at 9:00 PM
LIARS!!!!
Agrippa2k on January 22, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Anybody else have anything to add to this list? I’m sure we could fill pages.
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Yes, but you are supposed to overlook that because if you don’t then CFR will be strengthened, taxes will be increased, the second amendment will be assaulted, we will cave to the global warming thugs, uh…no….wait…now I’m confused. Were you talking about Hillary or McCain? Or was I talking about Hillary? Oh, never mind.
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 9:02 PM
“Americans wouldn’t pick lettuce for even $50/hour”
Murmurs from the crowd turned to booing. “Pay a decent wage!” one audience member shouted.
“I’ve heard that statement before,” McCain said before
threatening to leave.
. . .
But he took more questions, including a pointed one on his immigration plan.
McCain responded by saying immigrants were taking jobs nobody else wanted. He offered anybody in the crowd $50 an hour to pick lettuce in Arizona.
Shouts of protest rose from the crowd, with some accepting McCain’s job offer.
“I’ll take it!” one man shouted.
McCain insisted none of them would do such menial labor for a complete season. “You can’t do it, my friends ["my friends", the term McCain seems to use with reference to those he hates].”
McCain is just dripping and oozing with contempt for his fellow Americans. Nothing could be cleared.
How can people vote for someone who holds them in such utter contempt?
MB4 on January 22, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Ah, but ideas–bad or good–tale their own sweat time to percolate to the masses. My sincere belief is that all this does makes a difference in 2020.
thuja on January 22, 2008 at 9:03 PM
One positive about McCain. He has a hot daughter.
froghat on January 22, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Heh. Well, if that’s how you spell it, then I’m going to go blame my wife. She had three years of Spanish, and she told me it was “aqui”. For better or worse, man. For better or worse.
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 9:05 PM
The M$M is really trying to crown it a Rodham-Clinton / McCain race.
And they’re starting to become successful. Let’s hope Romney pulls off some miracles.
Enoxo on January 22, 2008 at 9:05 PM
Yeah…..I hear ya.
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 9:06 PM
As a Fredhead my first pick is Mitt then Rudy.NO NO NO to McCain Huckabee or Paul
thmcbb on January 22, 2008 at 9:07 PM
It’s “aquí”. Note the accent mark.
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 9:07 PM
Weight of glory.
It’s “aqui”.
I was uber-kidding, mirroring the second mispelling.
Muy apologencitas.
profitsbeard on January 22, 2008 at 9:08 PM
And don’t forget it. You’ll probably need to know it if Maverick gets elected.
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 9:08 PM
I keep looking at McCain’s numbers a few months ago, seeing the MSM’s sudden and strange support for him and then several wins, largely attributed to independent voters. CNN tonight called McCain a TOLERABLE REPUBLICAN! I can only suppose that we’re well on our way to nominating exactly who Howard Dean wants us to. It’s win win for the DEMs who will have a fellow liberal in power no matter who wins.
So why is CNN calling Huckabee a SOLID CONSERVATIVE and exactly why aren’t they smearing his upfront show of faith half as much as 90% of the secular conservatives are?
I don’t know about anyone else but personally I’m having trouble finding more than a few McCain and Huckabee supporters online or in person. They are certainly there but not in the numbers one would expect to find them for the polling or primary numbers they’re getting.
I guess that we could expect to find a lot of social cons are Democrats who like low taxes and maybe even support the war but also love abortion, illegal immigration, repressive gun laws etc. but I keep thinking that there is more to it than that.
I guess it really doesn’t matter. Whoever gets elected they will not balance the budget, reduce pork spending, or do anything remotely effective at fixing our sick economy. Social security won’t get fixed and we’re heading for some kind of huge government program called universal healthcare that will not address any of the real issues that make healthcare so expensive. We are so screwed.
Buzzy on January 22, 2008 at 9:08 PM
It’s almost as if it had already been written.
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 9:08 PM
Crap. So much for that hope. It makes sense because to many of us the difference between McCain and Fred is not that great, but it’s still a disappointment. Hopefully it won’t end up playing out that way.
Spirit of 1776 on January 22, 2008 at 9:09 PM
This is sounding like a slow
march up to the top of Doom
Mountain.Pick your candidate,
close your eyes and pull the
lever!
canopfor on January 22, 2008 at 9:09 PM
As I mentioned in the last thread, the major reason most of the online Fredheads break for Romney is his position on immigration. However, if you look at the exit polls from the recent primaries, immigration is pretty far down on the list of important issues. The rest of the electorate simply does not care as much about it now as the right blogosphere does.
Big S on January 22, 2008 at 9:10 PM
I’m not sure about you guys, but I’m starting to think the MSNBC debate on Thursday will be the last chance for Romney and Rudy. I’m almost certain we will see McCain double teamed by Rudy and Romney. If he survives that and wins Florida, it’s over.
froghat on January 22, 2008 at 9:11 PM
Well, now I just feel silly. I was this close (fingers close together) to telling my wife we are through.
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 9:12 PM
I suspect the good people at the Washington Post are suffering from euphoric delusions brought on by the intoxicating effects of inhaling the fumes of canine feces that has been set ablaze.
TheSitRep on January 22, 2008 at 9:12 PM
McCain explosion looming.
Somebody will ask him the right question to get him to boil over.
His pressure-release valve is defective.
Turn up the heat and it’ll blow, my friend.
profitsbeard on January 22, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Allah, I think you are badly misreading the WashPo blog post.
He isn’t saying that those are the percentages that Thompson supporters support the other candidates. Instead, he is saying those are the NEW percentages when Fred’s supporters are moved to their second choices.
So, Thompson’s 7% gets distributed with rounding errors as:
McCain 28–>30 (+2)
Huckabee 19–>20 (+1)
Giuliani 17–>18 (+1)
Romney 15–>18 (+3)
Paul 4–>5 (+1)
Romney gets the proportional windfall here, as all the blog polls have shown.
Nessuno on January 22, 2008 at 9:16 PM
By the way, that shows that Romney had a 38% support rate among fredheads, but only 15 in the general electorate.
Nessuno on January 22, 2008 at 9:17 PM
It really makes more sense than you realize. A number of us FredHeads think the the Global War on Terror is critical and feel McCain has more focus and grasp in this area (although I strongly disagree on Gitmo et al with him).
And, bluntly, Mitt is clearly a politician that bends with the breeze (not even a strong wind) and I seriously doubt his convictions on anything but business and economics. We need a lot less pandering than we are currently getting from Mitt.
Yjat said, McCain is so wrong on immigration, that tips me to Mitt. Not by all that much.
Bottom line; I know were McCain stands, even when I disagree with him. I have no confidence in where Mitt is willing to draw the line between rhetoric and action.
michaelo on January 22, 2008 at 9:17 PM
*That said*
michaelo on January 22, 2008 at 9:18 PM
Well put. Seconded.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 9:19 PM
Oh sure, trust the same MSM that is trying to dictate who our nominee should be that the worst possible still viable candidate is the one that Fred!Heads would gravitate too.
As if!
SimplyKimberly on January 22, 2008 at 9:19 PM
BacaDog on January 22, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Most will just stay home. No one else does it for them…
unseen on January 22, 2008 at 9:19 PM
HERE’S THE ONLY EXPLANATION WHICH MAKES ANY SENSE: THE COMB-OVER CROWD GOES WITH MCCAIN.
reliapundit on January 22, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Aquí hablamos solamente en español.
Entelechy on January 22, 2008 at 9:21 PM
You say that about everything!
McCain benefits, McCain benefits.
Media types are retarded.
Sir Andrew on January 22, 2008 at 9:23 PM
Entelechy on January 22, 2008 at 9:21 PM
Oh yes the spanish language. Need to practice up on that if McCain gets the nod. We can’t expect 12million people to learn a new language but we can expect 280million to learn a second language. The logic just escapes me…
unseen on January 22, 2008 at 9:25 PM
I have a feeling that you were a McCain supporter all along.
malan89 on January 22, 2008 at 9:25 PM
Oh, and by the way, the LA caucuses are going on right now, and word is Romney will have a good showing.
Weight of Glory on January 22, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Makes sense. Fred is McCain friends (and it shows). Fred was even accused of being McCain’s stalking horse. Now McCain gets a bump in his numbers in FL. But Romney and Rudy get a much smaller bump. Could McCain win FL? I guess we’ll see some post-Fred FL polls in a few days but I wouldn’t be surprised to see McCain near the top.
On to 2/5 when McCain and Romney can go head to head. Then we’ll see what the voters are made of.
Vote Sauron 08 on January 22, 2008 at 9:30 PM
But what if the job paid $50/hour? Or perhaps illegal aliens should be hired to do these deportation jobs Americans won’t do?
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 9:33 PM
McCain, Thompson ticket? Nah, still can’t swallow McCain. This Thompson supporter on to Romney
gstrickler on January 22, 2008 at 9:33 PM
FWIW
Deety on January 22, 2008 at 9:36 PM
What about a poll of Republican-leaning illegal aliens? I bet McCain would do really well there, what do you think?
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 9:38 PM
That is the way, now that I have read it too, that I also read it.
MB4 on January 22, 2008 at 9:39 PM
Don’t forget about Fred/Castllanos/Alexander/Romney connection. Fred will be Mitt’s VP.
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Romney…the reason he won in Michigan it’s because he was born in Michigan, it’s because Fredheads voted for him to beat McAmnesty and will do it again if he wins the nomination. McCain can’t be trusted on abortion, gun control, amnesty or any other conservative issue, like tax cuts, spending, judges, a living constitution…….need I go on!
flytier on January 22, 2008 at 9:41 PM
Romney…the reason he won in Michigan it’s NOT because he was born in Michigan, it’s because Fredheads voted for him to beat McAmnesty and will do it again if he wins the nomination. McCain can’t be trusted on abortion, gun control, amnesty or any other conservative issue, like tax cuts, spending, judges, a living constitution…….need I go on!
flytier on January 22, 2008 at 9:41 PM
I’ll enjoy seeing Maverick go down as much as I hated to see Fred withdraw.
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 9:42 PM
…The other 10% stay home…
Sir Andrew on January 22, 2008 at 9:48 PM
I was certainly most not. If anything, I was probably one of the first, if not the first, commenter on HotAir to suggest Fred Thompson for President way back when. Wish there was a way I could check that…
McCain is far from my perfect candidate, but all-in-all, everything considered, he’s the best choice. Especially if natinal security and the war mean anything…
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 9:50 PM
National security and the war don’t mean anything if the country is irrevocably destroyed by the illegal alien invasion plus the post-legalization chain migration.
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 9:52 PM
Its enough for me to never vote for Maverick because of his aiding and abetting the Dems roadblocking of the Bush Judge Noms. But there’s BUTTLOADS more about Johnnie Mac that I can’t stand.
/leaves it right there or might get banned for saying what I really feel. As in really foul language.
44Magnum on January 22, 2008 at 9:52 PM
If Romney gains 3%, then he is getting 43% of Thompson voters while McCain is getting 29%
WoosterOh on January 22, 2008 at 9:52 PM
Good job, Nessuno.
Spirit of 1776 on January 22, 2008 at 9:54 PM
A little help here. Where in the linked poll does it show the breakout of the Thompson supporters and specifically where the second choice of those are shown? Not the percentages of the second choices of all polled, just the Thompson supporters.
News2Use on January 22, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Then what’s to be done? Mass roundups and deportation? “Amnesty” comes in many forms…something has to be done.
JetBoy on January 22, 2008 at 10:00 PM
I can believe it.
My dad, a lifelong economic/national-security Republican, has favored Fred all summer long, but a few weeks ago when it was becoming evident that Fred wasn’t performing, he told me his second choice was, “Mr. Temper”, he said, McCain.
I think the basic reasoning is this: Fred being the only conservative in the race, once he’s out of it all of the remaining candidates all have major flaws, (they suck). This being the case, why not vote for the war-hero with name recognition?
Speaking for myself, while Mitt talks a good game I just don’t believe anything he says. I’m sure some of it’s true but I think that once he decided to run for POTUS, Mitt used his wealth to put together a bunch of focus groups and gather polling data in order to create a platform custom tailored to achieve the White House for Mitt.
But maybe I’m wrong about Mitt, maybe he really IS as conservative as he and others claim—-but wait, no he’s not. I watched the Democrats debate last night and, from the sound of it, Obama’s universal healthcare plan is less intrusive than Mitt’s is. Obama wouldn’t garnish people’s wages or force them into bankruptcy, (or throw them into prison or whatever), if they don’t participate in the program.
Mitt claimed to be pro-choice in the past but says now that he always voted pro-life. Based on everything else I’ve seen about Mitt I would bet that he lying about having changed his mind on the issue while in office. I think he was always pro-life and he only said he was pro-choice to get himself elected.
Mitt is very weak on the 2nd amendment. Mitt has also said that he wants to raid bookstores and confiscate violent fiction and prosecute the stores proprietors.
Mitt is not “The other conservative” in the race. Does McCain support universal-healthcare? Does McCain want to outlaw violent fiction? McCain isn’t exactly a strong supporter of the 2nd amendment, but my impression is that he’s stronger than Mitt.
I like Mitt better than McCain but I don’t like either one and it doesn’t surprise me if McCain is the biggest beneficiary of Fred supporters.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Attrition through enforcement.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 10:06 PM
It’s very simple. You GRADUALLY, as over the course of 3-4 years increase employer sanctions. At first you start with the worst and largest corporate offenders and relatively puny fines. At the same time your introduce progressively better systems for checking social security numbers. You then gradually introduce more significant fines and go after smaller companies. Eventually you introduce jail sentences for all employers (or CEOs/principals of corporate employers) and prohibitive fines. You also constitutionally challenge/modify the anchor baby situation.
The problem will take care of itself without large-scale disruptions to the American OR Mexican economy over this time period as the illegals gradually self-deport.
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 10:06 PM
Just keep in mind that Tancredo and DeMint, two of the best anti-Amnesty heroes have endorsed Romney. I believe it will be politically VERY difficult for him to reverse himself on Amnesty. Have no doubt that he will increase the funding for the military, whether he consults with his lawyers first or not.
And remember that McCain WILL pass the Amnesty, no doubt about it.
The choice is yours to make.
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 10:12 PM
That’s what you get for trying to ram ruDy down our throats. You get McCain because you deserve him.
ThackerAgency on January 22, 2008 at 10:12 PM
You had me doubled-over in stitches laughing. Thank goodness the methodology was straightened out.
Buy Danish on January 22, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Who is “you”???
Igor R. on January 22, 2008 at 10:15 PM
Actually, the choice is probably up to most of the rest of the country. I’m in Washington State which votes after Super Tuesday.
FloatingRock on January 22, 2008 at 10:21 PM
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