Quinnipiac: Rudy, McCain tied in NY
posted at 1:37 pm on January 22, 2008 by Bryan
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This is one screwy year. John McCain’s home county voted him the “Most Unacceptable” candidate and Rudy is struggling for the lead in what was supposed to be his bastion of strength.
Arizona Sen. John McCain is tied 30 – 30 percent with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani among New York State likely Republican presidential primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets 9 percent, with 8 percent each for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Sen. Hillary Clinton has 51 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with 25 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 11 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
If you want to be president it helps to actually campaign and it helps to win primaries. Rudy hasn’t campaigned enough and McCain is starting to see some momentum swing his way after South Carolina. It’s not huge momentum; Romney still leads in the next battleground state, Florida, in the latest Rasmussen though McCain holds a narrow lead in the RCP average.
So, basically, it’s still wide open. But for Rudy to be struggling in Florida and New York makes the former a must-win state. Huge revelation, huh.
Updates: The headlines tell the story.
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Here’s the latest NYT piece on how ruDy ruled NY like a mafia bully. Enjoy.
ThackerAgency on January 22, 2008 at 1:38 PM
McCain is leading in New York and California. Add most souther states wont vote for a mormon and Huck’s withdrawl (he wont endorse Romney after his attacks on him) means McCain is the nominee
Todays rasmussen naitonal numbers.
Date 01/22/08
Giuliani 10%
Huckabee 16%
Thompson 10%
Romney 19%
McCain 24%
William Amos on January 22, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Yeah! {sigh} go team. Gee feel the excitement building. Zzzzzz
Just A Grunt on January 22, 2008 at 1:42 PM
BTW I think ROmney either had to get Thompson as his VP soon or he has to consider Guiliani. Romney is dead in the water right now.
William Amos on January 22, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Rudy and McCain will both be endorsing Fred!
Super Thompson Tuesday!
Fred!
infidel on January 22, 2008 at 1:43 PM
How many delusional republicans think this story has any relevance, whatsoever? New York? Are you people f****** kidding? Is New York really going to go to any republican?
urbancenturion on January 22, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Rudy tying in NY represents a considerable upswing for the man. One poll, for instance, had McCain up by 12 just a few days ago. All polls here.
I think Rudy’s tie to the state of NY is not as strong as people seem to be assuming. NY is just one city in the state–granted a large one. But how many Republicans actually live in NY? Not that many, especially relative to upstate, so his impact is definitely dampened.
Nessuno on January 22, 2008 at 1:45 PM
His attraction in NY, NJ, FL, CT crosses party lines, supposedly. Helps in the general, not the primaries.
JiangxiDad on January 22, 2008 at 1:45 PM
NY hasn’t voted Republican since ‘72; completely irrelevant to the GOP. Rudy loses in Florida, he’s way more toasted than Fred is. However, I hope he stays in to split off McVain vote, otherwise, the ‘moderates’ will carry the field and November is a guaranteed loss.
michaelo on January 22, 2008 at 1:48 PM
I think I am going to take credit for derailing ruDy’s presidential chances. There’s as much validity to my taking credit for his political failure as there is for his taking credit for the cities financial successes during his tenure.
Yay, I’m the dragon slayer. I kept ruDy from winning the nomination! me. me. me. me. YAY! Come and get me ruDy.
ThackerAgency on January 22, 2008 at 1:48 PM
William Amos
I am so sick of this complete BS. I live in a Southern State and every Republican I know who is not a brain dead religious freak supports Romney and Fred with each being the other’s second choice.
We are not quite as ignorant and thoughtless as some idiotic Northerns might think.
Our knuckles don’t drag the ground either.
EJDolbow on January 22, 2008 at 1:50 PM
From one (former) Fredhead to another: Seek help.
Hollowpoint on January 22, 2008 at 1:51 PM
There has been one southern Primary and Romney finished 4th.
I think its fair to say Mitt’s faith does hurt him among evangelicals. Im not saying all southerners feel that way but is enough of them that do.
William Amos on January 22, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Hey McCain fans (Mr Byler, Mr Amos, etc) any of you check out George Will’s last piece? Its pretty good I think:
http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/will011808.php3
In the primary season it is important for Rudy though. He’s been flaunting his NY City success since the start. If he gets rejected there (not by Dems but by other Republican candidates) then he’s completely dead. It just gives his opponents too much ammo and deflates his once great talking point. If all he can do is go around flaunting his NY City success and then McCain can turn around and point to how little support he has in NY City and say “why is that?” It hurts.
Zetterson on January 22, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Ok, we’ve seen a couple polls in Florida and I’ve come to this conclusion. McCain and Rudy are both always around 20 percent and Romney is all over the place. Based on my theory that Romney has a low ceiling because of his fli flops, I see this being a showdown between McCain and Rudy. Whoever gets the moderate conservative vote wins Florida. Expect Rudy to go after McCain hard at the Thursday debate and give Romney a pass.
froghat on January 22, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Thank You EJ! You posted exactly what I was thinking and the same holds true down here in New Orleans as to where the support of the GOP is located. Fact of the matter is that the primaries are all over the place and there is more than a little spiking of the guns by “rats” who know John f***ing McCain is unelectable among conservatives.
highhopes on January 22, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Yes. If Hillary looked more vulnerable, or if Obama hadn’t become a messiah, Dems here (and NY’ers who’ve moved elsewhere, like FLORIDA) would consider Rudy, imho.
But as things stand now, Hil and Barry O look stronger than Rudy.
JiangxiDad on January 22, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Rudy is doomed. His entire strategy was deeply, fatally flawed. After Super-Duper-Pooper-Scooper Tuesday he’ll bow out with few votes and less money. With Fred leaving and Huck fading it’s a two-man race: Romeny v. McCain (just as the dem contest is essentially a one-man/one-woman race). I know a lot of people on this site don’t like McCain, but if it comes down to St. John v. St. Hillary I’ll be quite comfortable pushing the button for McCain.
Vote Sauron 08 on January 22, 2008 at 1:57 PM
SO far the conservative label hsa been the kiss of death in this primary season. So I dont see where labeling McCain as non conservative hurts him it hasnt hurt anyone but the conservatives ?
I wish I knew why the party has taken a lurch to the left but it has.
William Amos on January 22, 2008 at 1:58 PM
It’s relevant with regards to Rudy’s chances for the nomination- his entire election strategy has counted on FL and later NY, his home state. If he doesn’t win there, there’s not many (if any) places he can.
Hollowpoint on January 22, 2008 at 1:59 PM
BTW want another killer for Mitt in the South ? Hes a gun grabber hes for the assault weapons ban and the Brady Bill. McCain can kill him on that issue
http://www.ontheissues.org/Gun_Control.htm#Headlines
William Amos on January 22, 2008 at 2:01 PM
Look people, it’s not hard to understand. Rudy will either win Florida and stay a strong candidate or he will lose and go away. But to stay “he’s had a flawed strategy” is wrong. How can you judge his strategy before we even see the results of Florida. If he wins, his numbers in New York will go right back up.
froghat on January 22, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Fred! is pulling 8% even in NY!
Go Fred!
If the RINOs and MSM kill Fred off before November, I’ll write him in.
No more compromises for me. Let the revolt begin!
AZCON on January 22, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Actually, it was a previously unannounced “straw” poll that was optional at a meeting to elect a country chairman. Ron paul got 17% of the vote. It definitely didn’t represent the Republicans in the county who may or may not vote for McCain but would hardly rank him below Ron Paul.
bnelson44 on January 22, 2008 at 2:03 PM
Rudy wins Florida and he’s the front-runner (again). The media buzzes about his ingenious Florida gambit. Add 5-10 points in every poll. Florida gets its delegates back next time around, too. May as well, since Florida would become the new South Carolina, with or without a full slate of delegates.
It’s not just Rudy’s hopes riding on this campaign, it’s (some) Floridians aspirations to more influence on the primaries. And it’s all or nothing. Should be interesting, especially if Floridian voters get a whiff of the electing power they could have if they vote for Giuliani.
RightOFLeft on January 22, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Rudy is struggling everywhere, because he has not proven he can win anywhere. Once he wins FL (assuming he wins FL), he will shoot back up everywhere. If he looses in FL, he will be the most unsuccessful candidate evah!
P.S. NY gets 101 winner take all delegates. It may go to the Dems in November, but it will have a big say in who is the Reps nominee.
tommylotto on January 22, 2008 at 2:06 PM
So far the conservative label has been problematic because independents and dems have been able to vote in the early primary states. That will not be the case as we continue.
Is anybody else disturbed by the fact that Independents and Dems have had more influence over who the Republicans elect to be their nominee then do registered Republicans? I am disturbed by this. Call me old fasioned by I want to see Republicans deciding who the Republicans want to be their nominee.
Zetterson on January 22, 2008 at 2:15 PM
His FL strategy was predicated on certain assumptions in the first place. Haven’t they changed?
JiangxiDad on January 22, 2008 at 2:15 PM
McCain making the rounds of senior citizen retirement homes in FL. I hope he finds one he likes and takes up residence. As far as Rudy in FL, he has to keep reminding them he was mayor of Nah Yawk City on 9/11 every 10 minutes because they keep forgetting.
Rudy needs to stay out of some areas of FL, I hear they got this here Castle Protection law that lets folks have real functioning guns for protection.
Just A Grunt on January 22, 2008 at 2:20 PM
Rudy’s strategy is flawed because at one point he was leading in a variety of polls. But because he hasn’t even competed in any state race so far his support is falling and he’s running out of money. The only real dispute is exactly how fast and how far his support is falling and how soon he will exhaust his cash.
Rudy has tried to play rope-a-dope with his Republican primary competitors. But unlike in boxing, his competitors have gotten stronger after each round and he’s just gotten weaker. Sure, it’s possible he could win FL. But with a week to go does anyone seriously think he win outright? So after spending untold millions and losing IA, NH, WY, MI, and SC (in many places with single-digits and behind Ron Paul) Rudy is going to claim a second place finish in FL as a victory? That’s delusional. In order to prove that his strategy is sound Rudy has to win outright in FL and try to capitalize on that for 2/5.
If Romney or McCain wins FL then Rudy should stop embarrassing himself and find something else to do. To go back to the boxing metaphors, Rudy has lost the first 5 rounds without throwing a punch. He needs a knockout or at least a standing eight-count to prove he’s viable. Otherwise he’s a punching bag with an unpaid staff and dwindling support.
Vote Sauron 08 on January 22, 2008 at 2:27 PM
No, he wouldn’t be. At 14 points behind McCain nationally with only 2 weeks before Super Tuesday the modest boost he’d get from a narrow win in Florida wouldn’t be nearly enough to make him the front-runner.
Hollowpoint on January 22, 2008 at 2:27 PM
Rudy needs something to push him over the top in Florida.
One thing that would probably do it is an endorsement from Crist. My guess is that’s the reason he’s been pushing the disaster insurance plan so hard the last few days. If I’m Rudy, I do whatever it takes, including making a deal to give Crist the VP slot, which makes perfect sense anyway.
Typhoon on January 22, 2008 at 2:30 PM
That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Now, Rudy may win Florida and he may lose. I’m not claiming I have a crystal ball. But it’s not an ordinary win or loss either way.
If he wins, the story is that he’s a political genius, that all the early-voting states have just been rendered moot, and that all the press who wrote him off were fools. It’ll be a tidal-wave of a story and a Flubber-like bounce.
Similarly if he loses you can spread out all the New York Times’ many gleeful articles castigating him as an idiot and delcaring his candicy dead that will surely follow and roll around in them naked and giggling to your hearts’ content.
Typhoon on January 22, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Forget the actual poll numbers for a moment and just look at the trends in FL. McCain and Romney are moving up and Rudy is moving down. Fred just dropped out of the race. Do his supporters move to Rudy? Unlikely. They move to Romney or perhaps McCain. Huckabee was trending up but seems to be flattening as he runs out of steam. If Huck fades over the weekend heading into next Tuesday’s vote, will former Huck supporters move to Rudy? Not a chance. They move to either Romney because of social values or McCain because of national security.
Rudy could conceivably come in 3rd in his ‘must-win’ state. Brutal. That’s political annihilation.
Vote Sauron 08 on January 22, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Fred is out. Huckster has seen his last stand and he is going down. Everyone with a brain knows that Romney cannot win a national election because of the flip flopping and changes in position that don’t pass the giggle test.
There is no way that after what McCain has done to the Repub party in the last 7 years that he will get the Repub nomination.
That leaves Rudy. The biggest issue Rudy has is the pro-choice situation which he has handled honestly (as opposed to Romney) but not effectively. He will do that.
Rudy will be the nominee. You can take that to the bank.
georgealbert on January 22, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Hollowpoint on January 22, 2008 at 2:27 PM
We’ll see how those polls look after a few days of media fawning. These early primaries are all about impressing the voters with your campaign. What win looks the most impressive? Iowa? South Carolina/New Hampshire? Nevada/Wyoming/Michigan? Florida? I’d say Florida, but reasonable people can disagree.
RightOFLeft on January 22, 2008 at 2:42 PM
I certainly hope not. I can’t imagine anyone actually wanting ruDy to be the R nominee. There’s no way he’d win the presidency even if he went against Hillary. Read this article and tell me that this is the type of ‘leadership’ that you want in your president.
And he was the presumed front runner. He would have likely won the nomination had he actually campaigned outside of Florida. Thankfully he was thwarted. People like ruDy absolutely have no business being anywhere near power. ruDy is only interested in who is and is not loyal to him. He doesn’t give one iota about anything of ethic and substance.
Please read the article. I know you think it is a ‘hit piece’ by the NYT, but I guarantee you they KNOW ruDy better than you do.
ThackerAgency on January 22, 2008 at 2:52 PM
Rudy’s strategy is flawed in that he has virtually abandoned the field until the end of January. Sucking up to the voters in Iowa and NH has always been part of the game. All the momentum is elsewhere as he’s pandered to the residents of “God’s waiting room.”
highhopes on January 22, 2008 at 2:59 PM
ThackerAgency on January 22, 2008 at 2:52 PM
When the Republicans start taking direction from the New York Times and MSNBC is the day we pack up and go home.
Of course the NYT does not want Rudy to be the nominee. They know first-hand that he will win and how he will govern and it is is pretty much the opposite of what the high muckey-mucks at the NYT want.
Rudy is now the only chance left of getting a reasonably conservative government. McCain is against pretty much everything we stand for: e.g. lower taxes, doing what is necessary to stop the terrorists from committing more acts of murder and mayhem (he has been good on only Iraq), free speech, illegal alien amnesty. No way we give him the nomination. And I am sorry but, but Mitt is a phoney and those of you that can’t see it, should stop believing what you want and start looking at real facts.
Not only that, Mitt will be another suck up to the Saudi power structure, just like Pres Bush has. Do you really want that???
georgealbert on January 22, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Wait….Rudy’s running?! Does he know?
lodestonejames on January 22, 2008 at 3:09 PM
My next question is: Which Dem condidate is most likely to be able to be steamrolled?
We lost Fred! (I’ll probably write him in) so the best we can do now is Romney. If he can’t be the nom, I might be persuaded to hold my nose tighter-than-I-ever-have to vote for him. I won’t vote for the Huck-a-billy, or that self-serving back-stabber McCain.
Unfortunately, we (the U.S.) won’t be able to keep up the anti-amnesty fervor up for four more years. It’s mostly gone now.
…no hope, no hope…
urbancenturion on January 22, 2008 at 3:22 PM
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