Predictions and polls: South Carolina and Nevada; Update: Fox News calls Nevada for Mitt; Update: Fox calls Nevada for Hillary; Update: Wow — Hillary carries disputed culinary union sites? Update: Hillary wins Latinos, 64-24
posted at 1:01 pm on January 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The polls are open; last chance for Fred. Our tipsters rage against the dying of the light by pointing to the new ARG showing him jumping eight points in two days. Significant? ARG is traditionally an outlier — but they also tend to understate, not overstate, Fred’s numbers, so there may be something to this. His problem is he’s still likely to finish third behind Huck and Mac. Is a strong third enough to continue? I don’t think so but I look forward to the rationalizations tonight.
The surge to watch is towards Huckabee. Most of the polls earlier this week had him 5-7 points behind McCain and holding steady, but of the last six taken, two show them tied, one shows him just a point behind, and that same ARG poll that’s brought hope to Fredville has him exploding to 33%, seven points ahead of Mac. InTrade actually has Huck favored slightly to win at the moment. McCain’s always struck me as too squishy to win a state like SC whereas the “Christian leader” is conservative enough about the right things. I say Huck in an upset, which means a four-man death match in Florida with no clear favorite and an ever-increasing chance of the confederate flag and the difference between gay marriage and bestiality becoming issues in the general election. Super.
Nevada looks like a walkover for Mitt but one poll last week actually showed Maverick ahead. If he wins there today and holds on in SC, oh lord. The Dem race is actually more interesting than the GOP’s given the electoral shenanigans and the fact that Hillary needs it badly to cut into Obama’s lead in SC (where the Dems don’t vote until next week) by re-convincing black voters that he can’t really win. Too close to call right now; I’m going to say Hillary wins, with every pundit and his mama talking about the Latino vote afterwards.
Sound off in the comments. While we wait for results, Byron York imagines the Thompson campaign that might have been…
Update: I wrote the above half an hour ago but it’s 1 p.m. right now and Fox is calling it for Mitt. What does this do to South Carolina now, where the polls are still open? Do undecideds break for Romney?
Political Wire said results weren’t expected until 3:30 ET; it must be a blowout. The Dem results are due at five and those will certainly be closer.
Update: Here’s a little Saturday morning nuance re: Mitt’s claim that he’s the candidate of change. And here’s yet another issue you can expect to hear about for months on end if Huckabee’s the nominee.
Update: You can follow the Nevada results for both parties here. Meanwhile, morning turnout in SC is low. Hmmm.
Update: Actually, the Dem results might be faster at the state party website.
Update: The AP says Nevada’s Mormons turned out big for their guy:
About a quarter of Nevada GOP voters were Mormon, and virtually all of them preferred Mitt Romney. Overall, about half of Romney’s Nevada votes came from Mormons. Among non-Mormons, he had a slight lead over Ron Paul…
People calling themselves Republicans dominated the Nevada GOP caucuses, and they overwhelmingly preferred Romney. Independents just as heavily picked Ron Paul. Conservatives also were in the majority, and they picked Romney.
Update: I don’t know where Geraghty’s getting his info but very early exit polls in Carolina apparently have McCain and Huck close and Mitt and Fred back a ways. Plus, early signs of a “Diebold effect”!
Update: It’s 2:50 and the very first results in Nevada are coming in for the Democrats. Keep your eyes on that state party page.
Update: She did it. With 78% reporting and a six-point lead, Fox calls it for Hillary. The effect of this on the SC race next week will be interesting. Expect the Messiah to appeal to black voters there to be his firewall. ABC asks a good question, too: With Silky tanking completely, even in a big union state, does he pull out now ahead of SC and free up his supporters to break for Obama?
Update: Remember that guy at Luntz’s focus group who warned people not to count on Obama winning the culinary workers despite the union endorsement because of the large Latino demographic? He might have been right. The Las Vegas Sun says Hillary carried six of the nine at-large sites on the strip and may end up with seven.
Update: A forty-point margin for the Glacier among Latinos. Amazing.
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Exactically my point!
I LOVE Fred but hes run a crappy campaign! That’s no ones fault but his own.
I will not stay home and allow Hillary or Obama in the white house.
-Wasteland Man.
WastelandMan on January 19, 2008 at 2:30 PM
According to the CNN entrance poll, 25% of the Republican voters were Mormon and 94% of those voted for Mitt.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Who will you support after Fred gets 4th in SC and drops out? Huckabigot, McAmnesty, or Romney?
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 2:31 PM
if you clic on the explanations, they explain it, but to your average voter the diferences are quite small
what’s interesting is that I was googling for some info on Fred’s policies and there was a link to the same site
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Fred_Thompson.htm
the above was his ranking as a Senator and he was ranked as a Moderate Conservative. As a candidate he has moved further right. So has Mitt
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Weeks ago Mitt #1 issue was illegal Immigration during Iowa and New Hampshire. Last week Mitt’s #1 issue was the economy. Next week Im sure Abortion will be his # 1 issue. So how many #1 issues does this guy have ?
Many say McCain’s Military service does not garauntee him the Presidency. That is fine. Its also true that Mitt being a successful businessman does not garauntee him the White House either.
Campaigns should be deceided on issues. I wish I knew what Mitt stands for but it changes as often as he sites the Change mantra.
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Not true, lobbyists to me arent an issue. If Mitts guy was running his campaign I would say, good for him, the guy probably knows what hes doing.
As soon as I think you and I may have our disagreements but are cordial ya gotta go and ruin it. Do you disparaging our guy will in ANY way endear us to Mitt? The more you do this the more I will vote for McCain.
I have a lot of problems with Mitt but have never expressed them here because it wont do any good.
Yes, I am spiteful.
broker1 on January 19, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Write in – Mustache?
infidel on January 19, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Yay Mitt! Yay Mormons!
CABE on January 19, 2008 at 2:36 PM
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 2:24 PM
I don’t quite think that this is the case. Didn’t Reagan win in a landslide by converting traditional Democrats by making a strong case for conservatism?
Also, hasn’t the case been made that Slick Willie’s success at the polls was in large part due to his “triangulation” i.e. moving to the right (or at least convincing some of the more gullible) on some issues?
Deety on January 19, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Only a person who isn’t actually paying attention would say something like this. His positions are clearly stated in every debate or interview he gives. If you’re so confused you might want to take a look at his website. Anyone who says they will vote for McCain, I know is just fooling themself when they call themself a conservative
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 2:37 PM
You know what was the most striking thing to me, in Fred, after Mitt won Michigan? I have never seen Fred so happy and lighthearted.
Why? Because the burden was off Fred!
Fred at that point knew, that he was probably finished and he could let go of his political aspirations, knowing that someone more energetic than him, really is going to win the nomination!
Fred is so transparent!
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Which indicates to me that we can take this website with a grain of salt.
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Mormons are …..everywhere!!!!!
Even in the Sin City! EEEKS
LOLOLOL
-Wasteland Man.
WastelandMan on January 19, 2008 at 2:38 PM
In that case, I won’t support anyone. I’ll most likely vote for the Republican candidate in November (anyone’s better than Hillary or Obama), but I won’t waste an ounce of money or effort to work for someone who I’m not that excited about (and who’s going to probably get massacred).
Darin on January 19, 2008 at 2:38 PM
I saw that on the FNC!
That is going to be bad for McCain because of the independents.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Mitt’s #1 issue has always been global jihad, and he has never waivered from it. It is true that as economic worries have increased he has focused on the economy on his stump speeches more, but global jihad still has remained #1 as it should be.
paulsur on January 19, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Only if enough people act the same way you do.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Thats the spirit!
I can’t wait till this primary is over so we can all just jab at the democrats again.
-Wasteland Man.
WastelandMan on January 19, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Jimmy Carter was seen as the more radical in the 1980 election. His failed liberal policies were well known as well as his weakness with the Iranian crisis.
Bill Clinton was and is considered a moderate in the Democratic party.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 2:46 PM
true, but it’s fairly well done. But politicians, especially when running for office need to change as issues go up or down in the public radar. Last year Iraq and WOT were big, still are but now it looks like the economy will be number one in this election.
That’s one reason I switched to Romney, his experience as an executive will contrast nicely against Hillary or Obama.
Plus I think he will smoke either in one on one debates, he’s is very sharp and does not lose his composure.
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 2:47 PM
How so? McCain is a moderate and pulls moderate independents, Republicans and some moderate Democrats. Ron Paul is no moderate.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 2:47 PM
iirc, Mormons have long been heavily involved with Vegas. Howard Hughes had a big contingent of Mormons looking after him, buying and running all his Vegas properties for him. They were considered trustworthy enough to be put in charge of the casinos.
TheBigOldDog on January 19, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Republicans tend to move to the Right during primaries and then move to the Center during the general election
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 2:50 PM
.
since Iraq is going much better, the MSM has lost interest
The economy will be number one issue for this election.
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Might mean Mitt will do well in AZ too.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Dude. We founded the town. No Joke.
I am a lifelong Mormon and I grew up in Las Vegas. My sister is still there. She’s going to give me the low-down on the process tonight.
Interestingly enough, polling the family & friends back there, most preferred Rudy, but as he fell off the face of the earth…
Romney was not the universal favorite among my many western kith and kin – a lot liked McCain or Rudy – until Huck pulled the whole “Jesus and Satan are brothers” thing, which is a long standing smear akin to the blood libel in Mormon circles. Since then, all of them have been loyal to Mitt. Mitt should thank Huck. He didn’t have to play the Mormon card since Huck already played it and galvanized support around Romney. Ha! That one act may guarantee a sweep of the western and SW states on super tuesday for Mitt. There are lot more Mormons out west than people realize and we vote, big time.
If , in the rare event, Huck ends up the nominee, I know one thing, for the first time since Teddy Roosevelt argued in favor of the senate seating Reed Smoot in 1904, Republicans will lose Utah.
Me, still hoping for a Fred resurrection, but as that seems unlikely, Mitt’s gonna have to do, I will even vote for McCain if I have to, but I will NEVER vote for a patent demagogue like Huck.
tlclark on January 19, 2008 at 2:54 PM
I just got back from the Republican caucus here in Nevada. Here’s how our room voted:
27 Romney
06 Thompson
05 Giuliani
05 Paul
03 Huckabee
02 McCain
We selected 10 delegates who will vote as follows:
05 Romney
02 Thompson
02 Paul
01 McCain
We’ll see how this plays out in the entire sate but Romney will win for sure. And, yes, the Mormon turnout was huge. February, at the County convention, we’ll select the State delegates, who will in turn select the National delegates in April.
Mojave Mark on January 19, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Nice thanks fer the Background.
I am no Fred head but I’d vote for him if there was anything to back. Maybe he’ll do ok in SC today who knows.
So I’m going for Romney myself Probably.
…although My Primary is next to worthless.
-Wasteland Man.
WastelandMan on January 19, 2008 at 2:58 PM
With very few Nevada precincts reporting, it’s 60-40 Obama.
Slublog on January 19, 2008 at 2:59 PM
McCain had the most votes from anti-war/independent zealots in NH, because they knew McCain will compromise on Gitmo and water boarding, which would weaken our resolve.
This is a dirty little secret that nobody seems to understand for all of McCain’s “war hawkish” rhetoric.
These anti-war zealots grasp the reality, that we are going to be in Iraq no matter who gets elected (as far as electable goes).
Now with Ron Paul running neck-n-neck with McCain in NV it’s going to fire up the anti-war loonies and drain McCain’s vote.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 2:59 PM
Bingo! I bet he wins over McAmnesty.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 2:59 PM
If I recall correctly, the ACU rated Fred somewhere near 85 (100=conservative, 0=liberal) for his Senate career, slightly more conservative than McCain, and slightly more liberal than Bill Frist.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 3:00 PM
With 10% in FOX has Romney with 55% of the votes!
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 3:01 PM
Your projecting more into the exit poll than was asked. McCain came out against how the war was being run and proposed a solution which, by the way, is working. So if I were asked the same question they were, I would have answered the same way and I am not an anti-war zealot. So I think you are very wrong here. I don’t see any evidence of Ron Paul supporters voting McCain. They tend to move to Obama when they move.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:03 PM
And just like that *snaps* Clinton and Obama are within 4 points of each other.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 3:04 PM
If the LDS turn out as they did in NV he will. This primary is pretty quiet over here. If they are motivated, and it looks like they are, then I can see that happening.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Within the United States in Utah about sixty percent of the population are members. That puts the state population of Saints at just over 1.5 million members. In Idaho, fourteen percent of the population are LDS; in Nevada, nine percent; Arizona, six percent; Oregon, four percent; and the rest of the states are at about three percent.
watch the MSM exagerate the Mormon effect in Nevada
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Just for fun, let’s take the same data, but interpret that story this way:
75% of the Republican caucus voters were not Mormons; 50% of the people who voted for Mitt were not Mormons.
Mitt won in these categories: Evangelicals, Republicans, Conservatives, Economy, Immigration, Military, Values, Experience.
Agreed…
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 3:06 PM
If you look at the numbers it’s kinda hard to exagerate.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Holy Crap: the Silky Phony with 3.77%. Hopefully this poseur will improve the landscape by immediately getting out of our sight.
Jaibones on January 19, 2008 at 3:10 PM
But when you talk a religious preference you are talking about a very small demographic, normally and normally spread more or less evenly across the candidates. When you find 25% of all voters are of one sect and 94% of them voted for one candidate, political scientists’ ears naturally pick up.
Just think what it would be like if we were talking about evangelicals or Catholics or Muslims.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:10 PM
.
where did you get that? CNN election center has it Obama 64% to Hillary 29% with 3% reporting
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 3:11 PM
Florida senator Mel Martinez to endorse McCain?
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:12 PM
So does Politico.com
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:13 PM
EXIT QUESTION:
IS THERE A SINGLE SOLITARY FREDHEAD WHO LOVED FRED IN 2001????
JUST ASKING.
I THINK NOT.
HE’S STRICTLY A DEFAULT CHOICE FOR CONS.
AND A WEAK CAMPAIGNER, TO BOOT.
IF HE DROPS OUT, MOST PREDICT HE’D ENDORSE THE LIB MCCAIN.
THAT’S HOW CONSERVATIVE FRED REALLY IS.
AND REMEMBER: HE ABANDONED HIS POST IN 2002 – THAT;’S AFTER 9/11 FOLKS.
HE THOUGHT HE COULD HELP THE COUNTRY MORE FROM THE SET OF LAW AND ORDER, I GUESS…
MITT IS IT. PERIOD.
AND IF YOU ONLY CARE ABOUT HAWKISHNESS: RUDY IS A BETTER LIBERAL HAWK THAN MCCAIN – WITH MORE EXECUTIVE EXPERIENCE.
reliapundit on January 19, 2008 at 3:14 PM
I hope Obama thumps Hill badly in Nevada, I don’t know why everyone thinks Obama would be tougher in the general.
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Hope you’re paying for my hearing test….
Anyway….Fredhead Limerick says that unless my man finishes second in SC then the only thing he could possibly do to win the nomination would be to throw Castro’s body on the steps of the Florida Statehouse.
Limerick on January 19, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Now Clinton by a nose.
Jaibones on January 19, 2008 at 3:17 PM
1) Not as much baggage as Hillary
2) Less negatives as Hillary
3) Represents the next generation
4) Real agent of “change”
5) Possible 1st black president
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:18 PM
Your idiotic all caps typing has made your message irrelevant, such that I don’t know what you wrote. Heh.
Jaibones on January 19, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Use your indoor voice, dude.
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Heh.
Mojave Mark on January 19, 2008 at 3:23 PM
I hope so.
I’m an Arizonan and not a Mormon but I support Mitt. Until Dec. I have been registered as an independent largely because of McCain for whom I have NEVER cast a vote even though I tend to vote Republican 90% of the time.
By August I had made up my mind that Romney was the candidate that I hoped the Republicans would nominate but figured I would sit things out for the primaries here in the land of McCain.
As far as the whole Mormon question goes, I’ll have to give Huckabee his due. I finally got off my duff and registered as a Republican on Dec. 16th following his “innocent question”.
To me that just smacks of cynical playing on religious bigotry. As I said I’m not a member of LDS, so I wasn’t offended on religious grounds. I was deeply offended as an AMERICAN.
P.S. Go Freadheads! I have my preference and my reasons for it but I also absolutely respect yours as well.
Deety on January 19, 2008 at 3:24 PM
70% of FL republicans are hispanic
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:24 PM
reliapundit on January 19, 2008 at 3:14 PM
If you just don’t want to have to fool with hitting the shift key, could I suggest all lowercase? It’s a fact that people find it easier to read all lowercase than all uppercase. It has to do with the fact that in ALL CAPS, EVERY CHARACTER IS EXACTLY THE SAME HEIGHT, WHICH MAKES THEM HARDER TO DISTINGUISH. But in lowercase, it’s easier to recognize the characters because some of them are different heights from the others.
Yes, I know, there’s not much more effort in reading one letter as a capital instead of a small letter. But when reading long blocks of text, that very slight difference per letter makes a big difference over all.
theregoestheneighborhood on January 19, 2008 at 3:25 PM
The antiwar zealots are a different brand.. they know Obama is simply rhetoric “antiwar”. And they really don’t care that much whether Obama has it in the bag or whether he can win in the general or not.
Their main chess playing is to upset the race as much as possible, with their antiwar agenda as their driving issue.
They knew McCain sticks to his rhetoric and at that time he looked to be the potential front runner of the “antiwar” candidate, in that, McCain would weaken our resolve by banning water boarding and closing Gitmo.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Are you seeing many yard signs where you are? Only signs I see are for Ron Paul
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:26 PM
Mitt Romney is crushing everyone in Nevada.
Complete7 on January 19, 2008 at 3:26 PM
How does ‘None of the above’ grab ya? Maybe I’ll follow the lead of the cut-and-run republicans this time.
DannoJyd on January 19, 2008 at 3:26 PM
The military and the CIA has already banned water boarding by internal policies. Even Sec. Gates has come out in favor of closing Gitmo, it is a political liability. The question is where to put the combatants.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:27 PM
He brings “hope” and is a “new face”. Attacks on him would be perceived as just the establishment opposing “change”. He has nowhere near the number of scandals that can be used against Hillary.
Essentially, Obama can galvanize the Left. Hillary can galvanize the right to stop her.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 3:28 PM
I’m not a Mitt supporter and am not going to get into who I do support but if push comes to shove, I’d much rather have a Mormon in the White House than any Dem. For that matter, I guess whoever gets the GOP nod.
Big John on January 19, 2008 at 3:31 PM
The MSM will report any plausible mis-interpretation of any remark by any Republican campaign worker anywhere as an attack on all minorities.
pedestrian on January 19, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Question: why doesn’t hotair figure in the discussions on the blogitics section on the Fox News analysis? Heard Martha McCullum discuss Politico, Cameron’s corner, and some other, but hotair is not mentioned.
Maybe get the boss to lobby? ;-)
infidelpride on January 19, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Might want to look at California. Rasmussen has McCain up big there
Rasmussen California Primary Poll
Election 2008: California Republican Presidential Primary
Thursday, January 17, 2008
California: McCain 24% Romney 17%
John McCain has a seven point lead over Mitt Romney in California’s Republican Presidential Primary. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the race shows McCain earning 24% of the vote while Romney attracts 17%. More than ten points behind the leader are Mike Huckabee at 13%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Rudy Giuliani at 11%.
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 3:33 PM
That’s all rhetoric and war time propaganda. The first casualty of war is the truth.
The issue is Congress formally passing a law to ban water boarding and close Gitmo.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 3:34 PM
This depends a lot on what happens today and in FL. CA votes Feb 5th I believe.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:36 PM
Is a good chance McCain carrys South Carolina and Florida. That is a big bounce into Super Tuesday
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Huck 30% (sigh!)
Thompson 24% (upset special of the day!)
McCain 23% (bye, senor!)
Romney (15%)
Paul (5%)
Giuliani (3%)
Believe it!
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Two more things on the whole “mormon” dynamic.
When I was there, 14 years ago, mormons were even less than the 9% they are now. But they were 50% of the church going population. When so few go to church, you make allies where you can and Evangelicals had no problem going mormons on social issues.
Mormons also had a third of the seats in the county commission. In short, Mormons are a minority, but very active in politics. Also, unlike the south, Mormons in the west have very good relationships with Evangelicals. When the Evergreen Baptist church burned down, it was the Las Vegas Stake that volunteered their chapel to replace it until theirs was rebuilt.
Mormons and evangelicals have been strong allies in pro-life and traditional values issues, Many times (and Gary Bauer has attested to this) Evangelicals just didn’t have the organization to keep certain drives going, but they counted on the Mormons to help, and therefore, evangelicals, in the west, tend to trust Mormon leadership as well, augmenting the vote of Mormons.
In the south however, an entirely different dynamic is in place, which makes Romney very vulnerable in the general I’m afraid. Which is partly why he’s not my first pic, (that and his demeanor which has all the hallmarks of insincerity, but it’s not, it’s just how he really is, and I know this from people who have met him. He’s always acting like’s he’s in front of a corporate boardroom. He’s acted that way since he was a teenager.)
tlclark on January 19, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Me too. As it happens, I had occasion to to drive all around Oro Valley two days ago (next to Tucson)and I saw 2 typical Paul signs and 1 working on billboard status.
What I found most amusing though was a proliferation of signs for local candidates all over the place. Oro Valley is notorious for its local picky-ness about signage. If they had their way no business would ever advertise in such a crass manner at all.
Seems to be O.K. if you want to be on the council to make more regulations though! ;)
Deety on January 19, 2008 at 3:39 PM
woot Romney
Richard Bushnell on January 19, 2008 at 3:40 PM
If he does carry SC and FL it will overshadow Mitt’s wins in MI and NV. He will have a huge bounce into Super Tuesday. FL is the first primary with a large percentage of hispanic voters.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:41 PM
Listening to talkradio on the way to the gym around noon- the topic was BROKERED COVENTION- The CW on this particular conversation seemed to me to be THAT FRED WOULD TAKE A BROKERED CONVENTION.
I think they’re right.
BECAUSE:
1.When ya git to convention it’s about POLICY not PERSONALITY
2. Huckabee and McCain got WAY TOO MANY IMPORTANT ENEMIES IN THE PARTY. Think pundit elite- especially Rush, Numbers Usa etc. The more folks learn about their policy on illegals the more they don’t like’em.
3. Fred’s the best liked of the candidates by the GOP base.
4. Fred’s the REAL CONSERVATIVE and more and more people are gonna know it.
5. Fred’s the BEST choice to RALLY all the legs of the GOP stool.
ALL Fred has to do is stay in and he’ll do better and better as more folks start to pay attention. His PRESS in the GOP based media has been MUCH BETTER LATELY.
Ti-i-i-i-me is on his side! Yes it is. (Just stay in Fred!! Hell, we’ll help ya!)
Ex-tex on January 19, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Hispanics are afraid of Romney’s hardline stance on immigration. I think Rudy or McCain will win Florida.
froghat on January 19, 2008 at 3:43 PM
I only get into the Nevada Dems 08 site once in a while, but the last update I saw about 2 minutes ago had this:
31% reporting
Clinton – 50%
Obama – 44%
Wineaholic on January 19, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Exactly. It wasn’t so long ago that Mitt was really behind in Florida, with Rudy leading.
Now Rudy is ONLY 11% in CA!
Rudy. IS. DONE!
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 3:44 PM
If Fred gets out, Mitt will win Florida easily!
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Yup, and white folks and legal citizens are gittin’ REAL TIRED of illegals in Florida. It’ll be interesting.
Ex-tex on January 19, 2008 at 3:46 PM
In Nevada Mitt is getting 41% of latino votes to McCain’s 25%
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 3:46 PM
With 41% in…
Clinton – 50%
Obama – 44%
Edwards – 5%
Wineaholic on January 19, 2008 at 3:47 PM
Most Florida Hispanics are Cuban and don’t oppose a tough stance against illegals like other Hispanics do.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 3:47 PM
MCCAIN. IS. DONE.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 3:47 PM
yeah, that’s why he keeps losing republican primaries
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 3:48 PM
I like the fact that uncommitted is beating Kucinich votes in Nevada. But then I think Kucinich voters should be commited (to an institution)
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 3:48 PM
The CA Rasmussen poll results don’t surprise me in the least. Except for a few places such as SLO and Orange Counties, many of us conservative CA natives have fled the state for friendlier places so now most Californians are moderate to liberal. Add to that a growing Hispanic population and it’s no wonder a RINO such as McCain leads the pack.
California may have a boat load of delegates but it is NOT a bellweather state by any stretch. Nothing to see there…
CliffHanger on January 19, 2008 at 3:49 PM
It depends on FL. If Rudy wins big in FL he may be able to bounce back. After all, that was his strategy from the beginning.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:49 PM
For the sake of conservatism, we can only hope.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Well I take it back Kucinich has a grand total of THREE votes in the Nevada Primary.
Some check them for green
cardsskinWilliam Amos on January 19, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Very close.
Different Hispanics, though. Many are Cuban, who usually vote Republican and many even favor tough immigration enforcement.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 3:51 PM
More Early Exits from SC, But These Are Less Early
The exit polls, with the complete “second wave” of data, put McCain starting to inch ahead of Huckabee by a few points. Mitt and Fred back quite a bit, essentially competing for third place.
If you’re a South Carolinian, you ought not let something like this deter you from voting. (Nor should it really thrill you – these things have been wrong before.) I pass this on just for the sake of informing readers who are voracious for additional tea leaves to read…
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2YxNmYxNjQ5NjEzNTI4MjY3YjRjZjZhZDZiMmY2YWI=
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Florida senator Mel Martinez to endorse McCain?
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:53 PM
When are pundits going to remind everyone that McCain got handled near his back yard? Everyone was all over Romney for “losing” NH with McCain cackling like a school girl. McCain better shore up his home turf, or he’s going to continue bleeding on the home front.
Cold Steel on January 19, 2008 at 3:54 PM
With about 55% in…
Clinton – 50.03%
Obama – 44.84%
Edwards – 4.85%
Uncommitted – 0.23%
Kucinich – 0.06%
Gravel – 0.00%
Wineaholic on January 19, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Dems are too close to call, but can we at least call John Edwards a loser…I mean the loser?
tommuck on January 19, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Mormons key for Romney in Nevada
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Wouldn’t surprise me. He worked with McCain on amnesty. He’s not exactly popular around here, but he only won election in 2004.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 3:56 PM
Fred is a great candidate, has a more conservative platform than any other candidate in the field, and would make a fine president. Nevertheless, he has not caught on. I wish he had, but I can certainly support Romney, whereas I would have trouble getting behind any of the other candidates in the field.
Fred, the Sony Betamax candidate: Better platform, but not consumer-selected.
EyeSurgeon on January 19, 2008 at 3:56 PM
You Fredheads are cute. Really. Eternally optimistic their guy is going to break out of the pack at any moment. As someone who typically roots for the underdog (Chargers defeating the Patriots, for example) I like that.
FRED-ALANCHE ‘08!!
CliffHanger on January 19, 2008 at 3:56 PM
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