Predictions and polls: South Carolina and Nevada; Update: Fox News calls Nevada for Mitt; Update: Fox calls Nevada for Hillary; Update: Wow — Hillary carries disputed culinary union sites? Update: Hillary wins Latinos, 64-24
posted at 1:01 pm on January 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The polls are open; last chance for Fred. Our tipsters rage against the dying of the light by pointing to the new ARG showing him jumping eight points in two days. Significant? ARG is traditionally an outlier — but they also tend to understate, not overstate, Fred’s numbers, so there may be something to this. His problem is he’s still likely to finish third behind Huck and Mac. Is a strong third enough to continue? I don’t think so but I look forward to the rationalizations tonight.
The surge to watch is towards Huckabee. Most of the polls earlier this week had him 5-7 points behind McCain and holding steady, but of the last six taken, two show them tied, one shows him just a point behind, and that same ARG poll that’s brought hope to Fredville has him exploding to 33%, seven points ahead of Mac. InTrade actually has Huck favored slightly to win at the moment. McCain’s always struck me as too squishy to win a state like SC whereas the “Christian leader” is conservative enough about the right things. I say Huck in an upset, which means a four-man death match in Florida with no clear favorite and an ever-increasing chance of the confederate flag and the difference between gay marriage and bestiality becoming issues in the general election. Super.
Nevada looks like a walkover for Mitt but one poll last week actually showed Maverick ahead. If he wins there today and holds on in SC, oh lord. The Dem race is actually more interesting than the GOP’s given the electoral shenanigans and the fact that Hillary needs it badly to cut into Obama’s lead in SC (where the Dems don’t vote until next week) by re-convincing black voters that he can’t really win. Too close to call right now; I’m going to say Hillary wins, with every pundit and his mama talking about the Latino vote afterwards.
Sound off in the comments. While we wait for results, Byron York imagines the Thompson campaign that might have been…
Update: I wrote the above half an hour ago but it’s 1 p.m. right now and Fox is calling it for Mitt. What does this do to South Carolina now, where the polls are still open? Do undecideds break for Romney?
Political Wire said results weren’t expected until 3:30 ET; it must be a blowout. The Dem results are due at five and those will certainly be closer.
Update: Here’s a little Saturday morning nuance re: Mitt’s claim that he’s the candidate of change. And here’s yet another issue you can expect to hear about for months on end if Huckabee’s the nominee.
Update: You can follow the Nevada results for both parties here. Meanwhile, morning turnout in SC is low. Hmmm.
Update: Actually, the Dem results might be faster at the state party website.
Update: The AP says Nevada’s Mormons turned out big for their guy:
About a quarter of Nevada GOP voters were Mormon, and virtually all of them preferred Mitt Romney. Overall, about half of Romney’s Nevada votes came from Mormons. Among non-Mormons, he had a slight lead over Ron Paul…
People calling themselves Republicans dominated the Nevada GOP caucuses, and they overwhelmingly preferred Romney. Independents just as heavily picked Ron Paul. Conservatives also were in the majority, and they picked Romney.
Update: I don’t know where Geraghty’s getting his info but very early exit polls in Carolina apparently have McCain and Huck close and Mitt and Fred back a ways. Plus, early signs of a “Diebold effect”!
Update: It’s 2:50 and the very first results in Nevada are coming in for the Democrats. Keep your eyes on that state party page.
Update: She did it. With 78% reporting and a six-point lead, Fox calls it for Hillary. The effect of this on the SC race next week will be interesting. Expect the Messiah to appeal to black voters there to be his firewall. ABC asks a good question, too: With Silky tanking completely, even in a big union state, does he pull out now ahead of SC and free up his supporters to break for Obama?
Update: Remember that guy at Luntz’s focus group who warned people not to count on Obama winning the culinary workers despite the union endorsement because of the large Latino demographic? He might have been right. The Las Vegas Sun says Hillary carried six of the nine at-large sites on the strip and may end up with seven.
Update: A forty-point margin for the Glacier among Latinos. Amazing.
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Is Juan McVano the new Al Bore?
“McCain is seeking a court order to allow voters in Horry County [a Juan Plantation McVano stronghold] one extra hour”.
Remember how Al Bore in 2000 wanted a selective recount in just the areas in Florida where he was strong, not in the whole state.
Seems like Juan Plantation McVano is doing the same type of thing in SC, but with selective extended hours.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Isn’t Horry County where the voting machines weren’t properly programmed? That’s not a selective recount.
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Short version: Clinton cleaned up among women, whites, Hispanics, and seniors. Obama did well among men, blacks, and young people.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Ah, the babbling from the perpetual blight has arrived. G’night.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 6:02 PM
I believe I said selective extended hours.
E-X-T-E-N-D-E-D__ H-O-U-R-S.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 6:07 PM
Preliminary figures from exit polls of voters showed that conservatives and white evangelical and born-again Christians were turning out heavily, and that Republican voters said a candidate who shares their values was most important. That all boded well for Huckabee, the one-time Southern Baptist preacher with solid social conservative credentials, and poorly for McCain, who has a rocky relationship with hard-right voters despite a right-leaning Senate voting record on issues they care most about.
Also troublesome for McCain: GOP voters ranked illegal immigration as their second-most important issue behind the economy. And, just over half said illegal immigrants should be deported. McCain has drawn fire from parts of his party for backing an eventual path to citizenship for millions of immigrants in the country illegally.
- Sister Toldjah
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 6:12 PM
Nevada for Shrillary? How depressing. Time to take off the gloves, Barak. Let ‘er rip.
petefrt on January 19, 2008 at 6:13 PM
WTF was that Huckabee clip just on Fox? That was the scariest, most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Allahpundit…where is the LOVE for Ron Paul’s 2nd place finish?
http://www.politico.com/nvcaucuses/index.html
The LOVE is in the Ron Paul rEVOLution!
So much for the “Fair and Balanced” reporting by Faux News:
http://people.ronpaul2008.com/campaign-updates/2008/01/19/fair-and-balanced/
Ron Paul beat McCain, Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani while losing only to Romney who had a home court advantage, as you mentioned, with the Mormon vote.
And you think this warmongering “New” Republican party is what America wants? The independents came out and voted for Paul. Ron Paul cured their apathy!
OK, here come the posts about Ron Paul’s supporters and his alledged racism…. - didn’t seem to bother the voters in Nevada did it? His message stands on its own. You can’t attack the message.
Fed Up on January 19, 2008 at 6:30 PM
I got that MB4, but may I remind you that you said:
Remember how Al Bore in 2000 wanted a selective recount in just the areas in Florida where he was strong, not in the whole state.
Seems like Juan Plantation McVano is doing the same type of thing in SC, but with selective extended hours.
It’s your analogy, not mine.
Anyhoo, Is he asking for selective extended hours where the machines were functioning correctly, or is it limited to Horry County where they weren’t?
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM
LOL…yeah I expect Nevada to rocket Paul right into 1600.
Limerick on January 19, 2008 at 6:42 PM
It’s a start…
…despite the lack of MSM backing, I’d say it’s quite telling.
We’ll see who has the last laugh…and you won’t know till November - but if Paul doesn’t win, you can bet your worst nightmare will. And who will you blame but yourself for supporting the “New” Republican failure of a party.
Fed Up on January 19, 2008 at 6:47 PM
Wow….I’m in trouble…sitting around eight years, blaming myself, drinking…who knows what……damn
Limerick on January 19, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Based on the nickname, I’m sure you enjoy the drinking…
We have something in common there, despite our political differences and understanding.
I’m sure we’d have a good debate over a few Black and Tans…
Cheers!
Fed Up on January 19, 2008 at 6:50 PM
I doubt it.
Limerick on January 19, 2008 at 6:51 PM
Fred for Veep!
(It’s a sleepier kind of job, and he’ll fit right in.)
You need a Mitt to handle a Rodham.
profitsbeard on January 19, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Well…ya got me on that one….I have always said he woudn’t accept it, but if bombs in SC and he stays in that is the only answer.
Limerick on January 19, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Well, the debate would be one sided…
Fed Up on January 19, 2008 at 7:01 PM
does this mean that Silky will finally go back to the Biltmore Estate and actually take care of his ailing wife and illegitimate baby?
Gartrip on January 19, 2008 at 7:06 PM
I thought Obama would win Nevada for sure. That Hillary just keeps surprising.
SoulGlo on January 19, 2008 at 7:11 PM
I thought Obama would win Nevada for sure. That Hillary just keeps surprising.
SoulGlo on January 19, 2008 at 7:11 PM
Yeah… Bill’s “powers of pursuasion” are fierce.
Gartrip on January 19, 2008 at 7:21 PM
It was a caucus, not a primary. First time here, early and mis-managed, thanks to Reid.
The ‘vote’ was a preference vote as you left the caucus, just like a straw poll.
The elected delegates (like me) can vote for whomever they please at the county caucus next month, and then at the state caucus after that.
fred5678 on January 19, 2008 at 7:24 PM
The Hillary win is suprising and disapointing. I’m not as confident as others are on the conservative side about facing The Hillabeast in the general election. A lot of uninformed voters will pull the lever for her just based on her name. Romney, Huckabee, or even McCain wouldn’t have a chance against that.
JoeBrooks on January 19, 2008 at 7:38 PM
Should have brought out these Badgers before the start of the voting. It might have helped distract more McCain and Huckabee voters until the polls closed.
Weebork on January 19, 2008 at 7:49 PM
I’m with Mitt!
madmonkphotog on January 19, 2008 at 8:11 PM
That’s money…Not a chance.
right2bright on January 19, 2008 at 8:11 PM
Well, Paul is dead last in SC tonight. I just wish Fred was doing better.
The dynameic that will keep Fred in until at least Feb 6th? The possibility of a brokered convention, as predicted before.
michaelo on January 19, 2008 at 8:25 PM
If Cong Paul does well when independents vote for him but not so well when Republicans do, doesn’t it make more sense to run independent? He can start his own party, like Ross Perot did and say wacky things in debates like Perot did…
…er ok, well he’s got the last thing taken care of.
On the Democrats side, I think its hilarious that Sen Obama will get more delegate votes even though Sen Clinton won! My guess is that it’s related to how many counties each candidate won. I’ll bet while Sen Clinton won more people (e.g. the popular vote), Sen Obama won more counties (think of them like electoral votes). Funny!
Weebork on January 19, 2008 at 8:33 PM
I just counted the counties that each Democrat candidate won in Nevada and Sen Obama won more counties than Sen Clinton (10 vs 6).
I think that’s why Sen Obama received more delegates.
HA!
Weebork on January 19, 2008 at 8:43 PM
Mitt got 94% of the vote in Nevada. That means he did worse than Bush in 2004 in the general election were “W” got 95% of the Mormon vote in the entire country.
joncoltonis on January 19, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Uh yeah, Mitt got 4% in a caucus against other Repubs, Bush got 85% (presumably) in the general. Who wants to bet it all shifts Mitt’s way when his opponent is Barack or Hillary?
Besides, 94 vs. 95% is irrelevant.
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 9:15 PM
FOXNEWS Mitt is promising pie in the sky, to go to Washington and CUT OUT BUREAUCRACY! It would take a bloody revolution to remove government bureaucracy. Hollow promises, anything for a vote. Mitt’s GOVERNMENT must raise taxes to INCREASE expenditures. Mitt must increase the bureaucracy he says that he will cut down to size in order to increase the current government’s INVESTMENTS. Furthermore, Mitt claims that the government currently invests in everything, and that those investments must be increased. Mitt will raise your taxes and convert free enterprise into socialism.
No thanks!
Mitt the wonder boy is no cure-all for America.
maverick muse on January 20, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Which is reason enough for any real American to vote her a$$ out of existence.
leanright on January 20, 2008 at 12:50 PM
I have a theory as to why HRC was able to take the Mexican vote (not Latino). There is a long-standing enmity between blacks and Mexicans, and with all the racist remarks coming from the Clinton machine the last few weeks, it’s easy to see how that would be attractive to Mexican voters. With all the black voters running to the Obama camp, HRC needed a way to recoup her minority quotient. Looks like she got it.
In short, I believe the race debate between Obama and HRC could have been manufactured by the Clintons to drum up more support in the Mexican community. I certainly wouldn’t put it past them.
fourstringfuror on January 20, 2008 at 1:53 PM
B-b-but, Hispanics can’t be racists!
Tzetzes on January 21, 2008 at 12:54 AM
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