Open thread: Polls closed in SC, too close to call; Update: Narrow lead for McCain? Update: “We are not blind to the obvious,” says senior Fred advisor; Update: Fred heads home

posted at 7:12 pm on January 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Barone was just on Fox saying they can’t say yet who’ll win but they know for sure who won’t — Mitt and Fred, both lagging and locked in a battle for third place. Is a 15-14 “victory” for third place enough to keep this campaign going, realistically? Nope, although he’ll be quite a thorn in Mitt’s side in Florida if he limps, especially if McCain squeaks through here.

As usual, you can follow the returns at CNN or Politico; the results have already summoned the Reaper for one GOP candidate. Heavy evangelical turnout tonight too, ominously for Huck-haters, although in fairness he’s not doing nearly as well with identity politics these days as Mitt is.

Exit question: If Huck pulls it out, will Fred send over those 25 cases of Bud?

Update: NBC’s got detailed exit polls. Maverick leads Huck by three or four points among both genders. Mitt and Fred are even among women but Romney leads by two among men.

Update: I’m not accusing Romney of playing identity politics. It’s his Mormon supporters in Nevada who are playing it. How else to explain 94% support?

Update: Fred just gave his concession speech with lots of “true conservative” boilerplate, but notably didn’t say anything about his intentions. It sounded like a farewell — “the spirit of Reagan lives on” (even if his campaign doesn’t).

Update: A chill wind blows:

While he remains in the race, two sources told CNN that “it was abundantly evident to all of us” that the bar was a win or a very competitive second place in South Carolina to continue to be viable in the GOP presidential race.

Thompson has no public schedule Sunday, and is planning to consult with campaign manager Bill Lacy and other top advisers about the next move.

“We are not blind to the obvious,” said one senior campaign adviser.

But, given the muddled course of the Republican race so far, both aides said Thompson and his advisers wanted to watch the results come in tonight before making a final decision.

When push came to shove, he just … didn’t have enough cowbell.

Update: The Reaper ain’t here yet, says Carl Cameron.

Update:? Fred’s already left the state for home in Virginia. The fact that he’s not waiting around to find out if he edged Romney for third doesn’t bode well for its significance to him.

Update: Huckabee’s getting … 12% of non-evangelical voters. Even if he wins here, his reputation as a one-trick pony who can’t win in less religious states is sealed.

Blowback

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