Open thread: Polls closed in SC, too close to call; Update: Narrow lead for McCain? Update: “We are not blind to the obvious,” says senior Fred advisor; Update: Fred heads home
posted at 7:12 pm on January 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | regular view
Barone was just on Fox saying they can’t say yet who’ll win but they know for sure who won’t — Mitt and Fred, both lagging and locked in a battle for third place. Is a 15-14 “victory” for third place enough to keep this campaign going, realistically? Nope, although he’ll be quite a thorn in Mitt’s side in Florida if he limps, especially if McCain squeaks through here.
As usual, you can follow the returns at CNN or Politico; the results have already summoned the Reaper for one GOP candidate. Heavy evangelical turnout tonight too, ominously for Huck-haters, although in fairness he’s not doing nearly as well with identity politics these days as Mitt is.
Exit question: If Huck pulls it out, will Fred send over those 25 cases of Bud?
Update: NBC’s got detailed exit polls. Maverick leads Huck by three or four points among both genders. Mitt and Fred are even among women but Romney leads by two among men.
Update: I’m not accusing Romney of playing identity politics. It’s his Mormon supporters in Nevada who are playing it. How else to explain 94% support?
Update: Fred just gave his concession speech with lots of “true conservative” boilerplate, but notably didn’t say anything about his intentions. It sounded like a farewell — “the spirit of Reagan lives on” (even if his campaign doesn’t).
Update: A chill wind blows:
While he remains in the race, two sources told CNN that “it was abundantly evident to all of us” that the bar was a win or a very competitive second place in South Carolina to continue to be viable in the GOP presidential race.
Thompson has no public schedule Sunday, and is planning to consult with campaign manager Bill Lacy and other top advisers about the next move.
“We are not blind to the obvious,” said one senior campaign adviser.
But, given the muddled course of the Republican race so far, both aides said Thompson and his advisers wanted to watch the results come in tonight before making a final decision.
When push came to shove, he just … didn’t have enough cowbell.
Update: The Reaper ain’t here yet, says Carl Cameron.
Update:? Fred’s already left the state for home in Virginia. The fact that he’s not waiting around to find out if he edged Romney for third doesn’t bode well for its significance to him.
Update: Huckabee’s getting … 12% of non-evangelical voters. Even if he wins here, his reputation as a one-trick pony who can’t win in less religious states is sealed.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 4 ... 7 Next »
We need Greenville and Spartanburg results to come in! I want to see McCain LOSE!
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:02 PM
I’m calling it for McCain.
McCain 10,290 34%
Huckabee 8,863 29%
6% reporting.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 8:02 PM
I don’t think Fred will endorse anyone. That doesn’t seem like his style.
Baraka on January 19, 2008 at 8:02 PM
I think Fred wants to play spoiler now. I dont think he wants Huck to win (or get his supporters) or even Mitt.
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 8:03 PM
I have to think Thompson isn’t going anywhere, much to Fox News’ dismay. Especially Juan Williams.
fourstringfuror on January 19, 2008 at 8:03 PM
Folks tend to circle the wagons when under assault.
From “Wild Indians” or from Mormon bashing Hucksters.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 8:03 PM
When a candidate plays identity politics, I blame the candidate. When the supporters play identity politics, I blame the supporters.
Mark Jaquith on January 19, 2008 at 8:03 PM
This spin is just pathetic. Tell me, has Mitt’s supposed support from Mormons influenced this nomination process 1/1000th’s of how much Huckster’s identity politics and support from evangelicals has? Huckabee has almost NO support outside the evangelical ranks, has RAN on his religion, and won Iowa and is contending in South Carolina solely on that basis. Last time I checked, Romney got second in Iowa and New Hampshire, first in Michigan where the Mormon vote was negligible, as opposed to 60% of the vote in Iowa and South Carolina.
This is just laughable, considering Mitt’s religion is such an overwhelmingly negative aspect to his campaign and seeing it being spun the opposite way. Incredibly backwards.
Patriot33 on January 19, 2008 at 8:03 PM
May as well.
But, if he’s going to stay, he’s gotta go tough on the rest of the field.
yo on January 19, 2008 at 8:03 PM
wow CNN just jumpt to 12%. Freds in third and Huck is 4% behind McCain
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 8:03 PM
That would be a service to the country. Not much of one, since in the end we’d still be stuck with a turd like McCain. But that’s more an indictment of the weakness of the GOP field than anything.
Centerfire on January 19, 2008 at 8:04 PM
I like Fred, but he knows he can’t win. All he’s doing now is helping McCain.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Fred has moved into third place.
fourstringfuror on January 19, 2008 at 8:04 PM
I think you’re wrong! The Upstate is not reporting yet. Hucky is already closing the gap.
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Waaaaaa!!!
Is this what we can expect from you Fredheads for the next 10 months? Jeeze!
Updtae: Fred’s tearing up.
csdeven on January 19, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Oh Brit, Fred! doesn’t owe you anything.
SimplyKimberly on January 19, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Great speech. No concession.
Bugler on January 19, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Thank you. Now I can sleep knowing who won.
Let’s hope Huck can pull out a win. That and Fred dropping out would give Mitt an easier time in Florida against McCain.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Huckabee is winning York County….this is really bad news for McCain.
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:06 PM
ROFL… Fred just took FOX, CNN and MSNBC and bent them over. They were salivating for a concession speech and got a stump speech instead.
Sweet.
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 8:06 PM
HotAir desperately needs some kind of killfile equivalent so that I can filter out fatuous imbeciles like csdeven.
Centerfire on January 19, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Yup.
huckfan on January 19, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Huck wining anything is bad news for everyone.
yo on January 19, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Might just be seeing the makings of a McCain/Thompson ticket in November
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Another state with way too many counties.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Didn’t give any direct indication at all.
Anyway, why should he rush his way out when he took so long to get in?
CK MacLeod on January 19, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Well, it could be, as one Utah columnist put it, because Huckabee managed to piss off every Mormon on the planet.
WasatchMan on January 19, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Most Mormons tend to be conservative and they voted for the most conservative, viable candidate. Thank you, Nevada Republicans. BTW, I was suprised how many more votes the Republicans had compared to the Dems in that caucus. I thought there were more Dems in Nevada. I guess Nevada Dems don’t care about primaries/caucuses.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Heh. I’d agree, except if it means a McCain loss it’ll be tolerable.
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Thompson just over took Romney 15.01%
doriangrey on January 19, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Yeah, sounds good to me: the “only true conservative” staying in the race and playing spoiler for the only viable conservative, likely bringing about a McCain nomination and the destruction of the Republican party, a fracture of the conservative movement, and a thumping in the general election. Great integrity there, Fred.
If McCain wins the nomination, conservatives are to blame for not waking up and coalescing around the right guy. Period.
Patriot33 on January 19, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Awwwww. Wadda madder? Can’t make people do what you want? Maybe you should run home to mamma?
csdeven on January 19, 2008 at 8:09 PM
I hope Fred! stays in until the last primary in the last state just to give the pundits an aneurysm.
SimplyKimberly on January 19, 2008 at 8:09 PM
McCain’s got this. Was competitive with evangelicals (Huck 40-27 McCain) and crushed Huck among non-evangelicals 40-12 (with Mitt in between.)
Vizzini on January 19, 2008 at 8:10 PM
Meh. It’s only about 400 votes at this point. Much worse than I thought he’d do.
Slublog on January 19, 2008 at 8:10 PM
Fred dropping out WOULD give Romney an easier time vs McCain. All the more reason for Fred to stay in, and become McCain’s veep. We already have heard that if Fred drops out he will endorse Senator John McCain, so it doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to see him on the ticket.
The only problem I have with McCain-Thompson ticket is that the wrong person is in charge. Will Fredheads in Florida vote for Romney to stop the McCain nomination?
joncoltonis on January 19, 2008 at 8:10 PM
RINOfight!
its vintage duh on January 19, 2008 at 8:10 PM
Eh look on the Brigth Side McCain is 72 right now we would only get him for 4 years then Fred can be President for 8.
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 8:10 PM
If McCain doesn’t win decisively and Fred finishes poorly and stays in Fred will have to answer the stalking horse question again.
Speakup on January 19, 2008 at 8:11 PM
Not that I’m a fan of either, but I can tolerate McCain much moreso than Huck (but not by that much).
With McCain, you get all the same douche policy without all of the Jesus.
yo on January 19, 2008 at 8:11 PM
Thompson’s lead over Romney is now a full point.
fourstringfuror on January 19, 2008 at 8:11 PM
LOL. That was funny when I saw it live, even funnier reading it now. Sumter, SC born and raised. In the Sunday School where I spend most of my days. Chillin’ out. Praying. Relaxin’. All Cool. And praying some more when I’m done with my homeschool.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:11 PM
Charleston is an early reporter and is going overwhelmingly Juan Plantation McVano over The High Reverend Huckster.
I would guess that Charleston is the “City Slickers”, so The High Reverend Huckster may still be in the race when “The Hick” precincts come in more.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 8:11 PM
The best thing for McCain would be for Fred to come in 3rd and Romney to come in 4th.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 8:12 PM
InTrade’s got McCain as a 90% winner.
Vizzini on January 19, 2008 at 8:13 PM
oh my! The are showing the delegates on Fox. Fred! has 5 but you need 1191 to win. Romney has something like 30. He is not dead yet.
CrimsonFisted on January 19, 2008 at 8:13 PM
I completely agree.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Boggles my mind that 2/3 of SC ignores illegal immigration. Or forgot what their candidates have done in the past.
fred5678 on January 19, 2008 at 8:13 PM
McCain 36-28
Vizzini on January 19, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Apparently malan89’s and Nevada Republicans’ definition of “viable” is “someone who will deservedly get a rented mule in the general election“.
Centerfire on January 19, 2008 at 8:13 PM
/s/a rented mule/beaten like a rented mule
Centerfire on January 19, 2008 at 8:14 PM
Clearly Mitt’s religion was the deciding factor for a majority of LDS voters. It’s pointless to pretend otherwise.
It would be interesting to see what percentage of the evangelical vote Huckabee would get if he were the only evangelical running against a field of Mormons. Or what percentage of athiest voters Christopher Hitchens would get against a field of evangelicals. Just human nature, imo.
RightOFLeft on January 19, 2008 at 8:14 PM
F*ck off, troll.
Centerfire on January 19, 2008 at 8:14 PM
You indeed know your SC history very well. They actually moved the capital to Columbia from Charleston because folks in the Upstate felt they were too citified in Charleston! Greenville County and Spartanburg will crush any lead Charleston gives McCain, especially since the Charleston suburb county of Berkely is going for Hucky.
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:15 PM
Same to you Centerfire!
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 8:16 PM
Since polls 9 months out are so accurate. If so, then why isn’t Rudy Giuliani the Republican nominee?
Patriot33 on January 19, 2008 at 8:17 PM
Ooops…not anymore.
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:17 PM
second look at super tuesday
Baraka on January 19, 2008 at 8:17 PM
If McCain gets the nom, and decides he needs or wants Fred’s voters, whoever the heck they are, and wants and needs them more than he wants some other bloc, he and the party would still do better to pick a younger more dynamic neo-Reaganaut heir apparent for VP – someone who could run in 2012 or 2016 or at least lead the party. Fred’s only six or so years younger than John, and hardly has a reputation as a smooth, tireless campaigner and energetic fund raiser.
CK MacLeod on January 19, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Damn. Paul is beating Rudy? Who ARE these people voting for that guy?
SimplyKimberly on January 19, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Careful now. Your momma is gonna wash your potty mouth out with soap.
csdeven on January 19, 2008 at 8:19 PM
before fred got in: big fan from afar
after fred got in (and from hearing him actually talk at the first few debates and leno, et al; not from media coverage): almost as negative towards him as i am towards huck now
last few weeks: big fan again
having said that, it is really pathetic that you have commentators (i am new here, but i assume they are fred fans)here monitoring fred for third lace! i repeat, you are desperately hoping that eeks out a distant third place in a supposed strong hold of his after months of campaigning and well into the election season. really pathetic, and i have nothing against the guy, but he is done and you all need to let go and seek the best alternative (if that is staying home for you, so be it, makes my vote count more).
truecon on January 19, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Are you being purposely obtuse?
I must have missed it when Romney:
1) Casually wondered aloud at a presser if, “Evangelicals really do dance around kissing snakes.”
2) Had a scrolling marquee with “Mormon Leader” or a floating diorama of the angel Moroni in the background of his ad.
3) Had his team call up the LDS offices to have them tell their flock who God would vote for.
4) Literally preached in a church on the campaign trail.
But since you’ve obviously heard about this happening, I’d be interested to see links to it.
Lehosh on January 19, 2008 at 8:20 PM
Kondracke is comparing Ubama to Tiger Woods and Condoleezza Rice? WTH?
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:21 PM
Somehow, this all benefits Mitt Romney
brak on January 19, 2008 at 8:21 PM
I dunno, I live in Charlotte, NC which borders York County. This is Billy Graham bible belt zone. Huck should do pretty well here. The WaPo map had Romney taking this part of the state because of the Yankee bankers who have moved here in the last ten years, but they still don’t outnumber the evangelicals. And I’m sure Huck has payed off plenty of collection plates in order to GOTV.
LOL…agreed.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:21 PM
Check the update people… on Fred.
My feelings exactly is that this was the most veiled concession or goodbye speech ever uttered by a candidate.
Fred mentioned – jokingly when he walked on stage.. “it’s to early to call it a victory…. ?”
Here’s what that was in reference to:
If McCain wins and Fred comes in 4th he’s dropping out and throwing his support behind McCain. His rhetoric was Anti-Huckabee with all the Reaganish comments.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Huckabee would have virtually zero support without evangelicals. Romney would remain where he is without mormons. Evangelical support of Huckabee on religious basis has influenced this election dramatically, any support for Romney on that basis from mormons has and will continue to be meaningless.
End of discussion. No comparison.
Patriot33 on January 19, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Just a guess, but maybe because he is the only candidate that campaigned there, and McCain and Huckabee are much less “conservative”?
Troy Rasmussen on January 19, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Ite beginning to look like McCain will win in South Carolina
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Welcome to the world of rational people on HA. We’ve been dealing with this Fredhead nonsense for MONTHS.
What you’ll see is the more rabid Fred fans will start to personally attack anyone who tells the truth about Fred’s absolute failure as a candidate.
csdeven on January 19, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Oh my. You live in the country, don’t you? You haven’t seen the PaulNuts running around? If you haven’t met one, you need to. It’s an experience. PaulNuts are to me as “SPs” are to Tom Cruise.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:24 PM
Carl Cameron just can’t wait to call the race for McCain. I think he might squeal.
fourstringfuror on January 19, 2008 at 8:24 PM
If Mitt comes in 4th what medal place is that ?
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 8:24 PM
How much money did Romney spend in SC?
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Pinheads! No grasp of the Constitution, or our national sovereignty, or history.
Gatordoug on January 19, 2008 at 8:25 PM
When Fred endorses McCain, are the Fredheads going to admit that their guy isn’t what they thought he was?
huckfan on January 19, 2008 at 8:26 PM
You don’t normally get a medal for 4th
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 8:26 PM
That was not a stump speech. It was intended to soften the blow for a speech he will be giving in the next few days that will break their hearts.
EJDolbow on January 19, 2008 at 8:26 PM
No, trust me! Greenville County isn’t reporting yet. Hucky has caught up to McCain in Spartanburg County. Hucky will win by a whisker, then McCain will say voter in Horry County (Myrtle Beach) couldn’t vote because of machine problems. The lovely “Diebold” excuse! ;-)
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Cork.
Vizzini on January 19, 2008 at 8:27 PM
8:24 pm: From ABC’s Thompson reporter, Christine Byun: “A campaign spokesman says their status is ‘fluid’ and they will evaluate their situation based on final results.”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/01/live-blogging-e.html
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 8:27 PM
He gets to revel in the knowledge that it is his ONLY finish below second place. No other candidate can say that at this point.
EJDolbow on January 19, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Fredheads, how do you rationalize to yourselves that the “only true conservative” in the race, if he does get out, will endorse RINO McCain? Seems to me a bit of a betrayal of what he’s been calling himself and shows a severe lack of integrity. What say you?
Patriot33 on January 19, 2008 at 8:28 PM
The networks haven’t called it yet, so this race must be very tight.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Hey, whataminute… 94% – Is Romney playing identity politics in Nevada?
Baraka on January 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
I wonder how many spoonheads look at polls, see Huck/McCain ahead and think they should vote for one of those two?
Gatordoug on January 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Charleston almost done reporting.
Greenville has not even started.
Spartanburg half in, going for Huckster by 6.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Any Barrett-Jackson fans out there? Heck of a show today. They are currently selling a custom-built RCR Camaro, with the motor from Dale Earnhardt’s car – the one that won the 2001 Daytona 500.
fourstringfuror on January 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Yeah, the Upstate is where Huck will pwn3 Mac. I’m sure he has sweetened plenty of collection plates in order to get the a***s in the voting booths.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
2000. My bad.
fourstringfuror on January 19, 2008 at 8:29 PM
You can see the future? Or are you just drunk?
Gatordoug on January 19, 2008 at 8:30 PM
I hope he stays in for the long haul just to try and spoil it for you Hucktards. At this point, its obvious people want to make the slide into statism, so I’m all about Fred screwing for Hucktards out of spite as much as anything.
doubleplusundead on January 19, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Yeah, that’s it.
/rolls eyes
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 8:30 PM
What’s there to admit? Fred would have endorsed his friend, who notwithstanding his support for amnesty and CFR has immeasurably more conservative cred than either Mitt, Huck, or Giuliani. I won’t vote for McCain, but Fred dropping out of the race and endorsing him doesn’t diminish Fred in my eyes.
Centerfire on January 19, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Romney’s not playing identity politics. The 94% shows voters identifying, but he’s certainly not running as the first Mormon president.
Vizzini on January 19, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Fredheads, how do you rationalize to yourselves that the “only true conservative” in the race, if he does get out, will endorse RINO McCain? Seems to me a bit of a betrayal of what he’s been calling himself and shows a severe lack of integrity. What say you?
Patriot33 on January 19, 2008 at 8:28 PM
I say if he is out i’ll be backing Mitt.. Anything else?
stlpatriot on January 19, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Why does FNC need to keep showing Duncan Hunter on his own page with his 300 votes as they scan through the results.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Second look at returning to British rule!!!
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Dude, Fred has all but dropped out. He wants to wait until the final numbers in SC come out.
malan89 on January 19, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 4 ... 7 Next »