Fred update: His campaign says he’s staying in the race — if he finishes third in SC; Update: Exit poll: Fred fourth in SC among … conservatives
posted at 4:58 pm on January 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Watch as the goalposts move before your very eyes, with less contested southern states like Georgia and Tennessee now the benchmark for voter enthusiasm. Third in SC is very much a possibility, of course — but early indications from Carl Cameron are not good.
Politico says he sounds wistful on the trail today while the NYT seizes one last opportunity to snark. “Amen! Tell the truth, Fred! Amen!”
Update: Victory in defeat:
Over the past month, Huckabee first surged in polls of South Carolina Republicans, from fifth place to, for a time, a solid first place. Over the past two weeks, however, he has fallen behind McCain, largely for two reasons: McCain got a major boost from his January 8 New Hampshire win, and the struggling campaign of Fred Thompson made a last ditch effort to get on track here. While well behind and tied for third place with Romney, Thompson did make gains, and the data suggest that virtually every point Thompson picked up came out of Huckabee’s hide.
Update: From Fox News, read it and weep.
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Fred is dead! Get over it Fredheads! He’s done! Over! Finito!
Oh, did I mention all of that jeering was to make you vote for MY candidate? Must have left out that bit.
*sigh*
MadisonConservative on January 19, 2008 at 5:00 PM
Im sure Fred wont be in much longer so all we will have is moderates there wont be a single conservative left in the feild.
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 5:02 PM
If Fred drops, where whould the FredHeads go?
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 5:03 PM
Except Romney that is. Go Mitt!
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Beer is my friend.
Limerick on January 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Fred never put those goalposts up…I’m still figuring (who am I kidding, I’m still hoping and praying) that SuperDuper Tuesday will be Fred’s time to shine.
Too many are placing too much weight on these first states…and they’re all over the place compared to each other, for the Dem’s AND the GOP…McCain wins big here, Mitt there…Obama wins big here, Hillary there…
There is no clear frontrunner in either party yet.
JetBoy on January 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Ron Paul is the only conservative left after Thompson.
BlackCapitalist on January 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM
They’ll split. The ones who like him because he’s a “true conservative” will lean towards Romney, those who like him because he’s Southern will lean Huckabee, and those who like him because they think he’s a badass will split between McCain and Giuliani. Honestly, I’m not sure how big each of those groups are.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Ummm…sure.
Weight of Glory on January 19, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Neither of these are conservatives
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Funny, BlackCapitolist. Funny!
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Well, I hope Fred can pull out third. Myself and 5 other family members went to vote for Fred around noon. When we got to the precinct there was only one other voter. Right now snow is falling fast, so I am not sure if turnout is going to be better this evening.
SCGOPgirl on January 19, 2008 at 5:08 PM
I would have voted for Fred in a heartbeat if he had been the nominee. Fact is, I don’t feel the same about Huckabee and McAmnesty. I usually mock people who say they would sit out an election because “their guy” wasn’t the nominee. As much as I dislike much of what Arnold does in Cali, he is still a better alternative to actually having a liberal in power here. But, I’m having a VERY hard time even considering having to vote for liberals like Huckabee or McCain. I honestly don’t think I would. There a still a handful of diehard anti-Romney commenters here, but the majority I think could vote for Mitt. Romney is getting my full support and I would encourage everyone to do the same (assuming Fred gets out) and put an end to a possible Huckabee or McAmnesty nomination.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM
LOL I just saw the numbers for “Conservatives” in SC and Thompson landed 4th.
“Clear conservative choice” LOL. Good slogan Fred, poor delivery.
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Fred has just hit his stride when it comes to campaigning. Anything north of 16% for Fred in SC looks like a major boost in Fredmentum. So why not stick in until super Tuesday. Better to stay in and possibly pick up a VP nomination than drop out and get nothing.
Bill C on January 19, 2008 at 5:11 PM
I’m going to reserve judgment until it’s over today. I’ve been watching every little story about SC today, and I’m just not convinced he’s going to finish that far behind.
Wishful thinking? Perhaps.
But we’ll see.
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Okay, I am going to say it.
If Fred! stays in past SC he HAS to go after John McCain with both barrels.
It is clear from his cutting into Huckabee’s support that when he speaks up and draws a clear distinction between himself and another candidate that Fred! makes progress.
He absolutely cannot let John McCain off the hook from here on out - especially going into those states that have closed primaries. That is where he will draw the most blood.
SimplyKimberly on January 19, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Fixed that for you.
When Thompson announces he’s leaving the race, I’ll believe it. Until then, it’s all hearsay.
fourstringfuror on January 19, 2008 at 5:12 PM
I think Romney will be our nominee but now that Fred is staying in I will vote for him. You have to admit that Fred does a better job of hitting the Huckster than Mitt has so far. For that reason alone you should be happy that Fred is staying in.
Bill C on January 19, 2008 at 5:13 PM
He’ll stay in because he loves campaigning - especially the media - so much and otherwise is just overflowing with energy that he doesn’t know what to do with.
CK MacLeod on January 19, 2008 at 5:13 PM
A Huckabee win in SC would actually help us get rid of McCain. If that’s the case, so be it. Huckabee will be easier for Giuliani or Romney to beat on SuperTuesday.
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Exactly. But let’s not even think about that…it’s way early yet.
Cripes, what’s wrong the people? Fred is the obvious choice…I don’t get it, I just don’t…
JetBoy on January 19, 2008 at 5:15 PM
I’d actually love to see Huck get hit so hard today he has to drop out, regardless of how my candidate does.
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Given all the horrible coverage Fred’s campaign had to deal with (a sample of which is Allah’s posts), finishing 3rd is pretty damn good at this stage.
He is picking up momentum and endorsements. You just watch and see how well he does in later states. There are 50 of’m and you’re judging him by the results of 4-5 of them.
AlexB on January 19, 2008 at 5:15 PM
The question is when Fred drops out today and endorses McVain…will fred supporters heed his call and vote for Mr. Amnesty himself??
Because obviously fred is not in it to win it and is just a pro mccain attack dog…hoping for VP slot.
HaraldHardrada on January 19, 2008 at 5:16 PM
I guess they’re not true conservatives.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 5:16 PM
At Least the Romney Fans are’nt Begging for donations like the Fred guys…
thats the sad part.
but then again Romney has his own money to spend *Shrugs*
-Wasteland Man.
WastelandMan on January 19, 2008 at 5:17 PM
Like Mitt won in Nevada in landslide mormon vote and Huck in Iowa with the Evangelicals its unfortunate there was no other group that Fred could have pandered Identity politics to. I guess votes these days are just interested in which candidate is carrying the same card they are.
Pathetic
broker1 on January 19, 2008 at 5:18 PM
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 5:03 PM
If Fred drops, where whould the FredHeads go?
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 5:03 PM
HOME. Where they will stay until 2012…
unseen on January 19, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Problem is, most everyone has been betting on only their horse to win, and will accept no substitutes. I’m betting on win, place or show for Fred, Rudy, or Mitt, and will happily accept any of the three as material for a strong presidency. I’ll take Obama over Huck or McCain. Better the evil you know, than one in disguise. My only real vomit inducer would be Hillary vs Huck in the general. Might do a write in for that.
a capella on January 19, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Dont laugh McCain and Huck are seen as more conservative than mitt
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Don’t you mean 2016? If the democrats win, it’ll be 8 very, very long years.
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Those are the ONLY three I would consider voting for.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 5:21 PM
The question is when Fred drops out today and endorses McVain…will fred supporters heed his call and vote for Mr. Amnesty himself??
Because obviously fred is not in it to win it and is just a pro mccain attack dog…hoping for VP slot.
HaraldHardrada on January 19, 2008 at 5:16 PM
You all do not understand. The Fredheads did not choose any of the other canidates before Fred entered the race. Fred was their last effort to stay in the race. If Fred leaves they leave and they don’t come back until 2012….
unseen on January 19, 2008 at 5:21 PM
The polls always get it right! I’ll wait till the votes actually start coming in. Though I doubt Fred will win.
Nashoa on January 19, 2008 at 5:21 PM
I used to be very anti-Fred. His entrance into the race and the idea that he could YouTube his way to the nomination rubbed me the wrong way. He might talk a good conservative game but he was the most untested and unaccomplished person in the race.
Then I started to like the guy about a month or so ago and he’s now a very distant #2 for me. Hopefully Mitt will make him some sort of task force guy. Fred can sit around, come up with a few ideas, and not have to do any of the heavy lifting. Its perfect for him.
Greenhorn on January 19, 2008 at 5:22 PM
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 5:20 PM
No 2012….Carter was a one term president. With the way the present economy is, I do not see any president elected being able to win reelection.
unseen on January 19, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Ditto.
Before Fred! got in I wasn’t even going to vote for anyone. I was going to write in Ronald Reagan as a protest vote.
SimplyKimberly on January 19, 2008 at 5:23 PM
That might be true for you, but on other posts I’ve seen dozens of commenters say they would come over to Mitt.
davenp35 on January 19, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Huckabee or McCain wins I’m voting for Hillary. I might hold my nose and vote for Romney.
abrown28 on January 19, 2008 at 5:25 PM
I wish they’d actually wait til voting is over to report this crap. We’ve had exit polls, now we have entrance polls…why not driveway polls - catch people before they even leave the house - or OnStar polls, ask people via the phone in their car on the way to the polls, or voting booth deliberation polls - an in-booth response system for undecideds. Geez.
I hope Thompson gets at least third today. He doesn’t need to drop out yet. I hate that a few small states are considered eliminators before the rest of the country even gets a say.
someguy on January 19, 2008 at 5:25 PM
Good! That’ll give us moderates and liberals some time to engineer a takeover of the party.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 5:25 PM
+1
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 5:25 PM
I think I will just write Fred Dalton Thompson in and call it a day.
TheSitRep on January 19, 2008 at 5:26 PM
What I keep hearing over and over from fred drones is that hillary is their second choice for president!
Whoah!
HaraldHardrada on January 19, 2008 at 5:26 PM
+2
FireFly on January 19, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Other than Ron Paul I will vote for any republican this November. Even Huck though I will hope that he loses in November
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Actually, I know many ‘heads who came over from other candidates. I believe several here did, as a matter of fact. And I’ve heard second choices, as one ‘head told me last night on here.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Super Thompson Tuesday baby.
Fred!
infidel on January 19, 2008 at 5:28 PM
i could be wrong, but don’t see Fred as part of anyone’s administration. He considers himself a leader, not a follower, and he has other career possibilities that are a whole lot less stressful and financially rewarding. I think he’ll ride off into the sunset.
a capella on January 19, 2008 at 5:28 PM
Where will THIS Fredhead go? I’ll reluctantly vote for Mitt in the primary (the lesser of the evils). If Huck or McCain is the nominee, I’m staying home.
In the short term I’m laying off HotAir for a while. You would think with Michele in charge there would be a little more substance here. I’ve grown tired of Allahpundit’s sassy little girl’s attitude when it comes to “Fredheads”. The “Fredheads” around here were the ONLY ones who seemed to care about principles and not process.
Congratulations Mr. Allah, BKennedy, csdeven, and others… enjoy the RINO ride. Good luck in November trying to draw a distinction between our candidate and theirs.
edgehead on January 19, 2008 at 5:28 PM
It looks like a clear rallying cry to get the Fredheads out to keep him in the race. Not that it is out of love for Fred, but keeping Fred in is good for ratings.
pedestrian on January 19, 2008 at 5:29 PM
+1
FloatingRock on January 19, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Mitt didn’t ratchet up “SC is my stand!” and “I’m the clear conservative choice!” rhetoric like Fred has.
The fact that Fred is this ineffectual is basically proof he isn’t viable.
Here is the slogan for Fred Thompson ‘08: “Keep Hope Alive!”
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 5:30 PM
I’m a Fredhead and if he drops, I am not sure where I will go. I do know I wont go to Huckabee or McCain. I guess I’ll just keep pushing for Fred until I have to make another decision.
Defensor Fortis
mo_gunslinger on January 19, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Polls haven’t closed yet. Chin up, buckaroo.
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Bye edgehead.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 5:31 PM
Perfect, voters being turned away.
broker1 on January 19, 2008 at 5:31 PM
I will vote Mitt if he is the nominee and hope he wins but he will not be getting a vote from me in the primaries
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 5:31 PM
Good luck sitting in your own home whining because your homeboy didn’t win, drinking your beer as you lament the world has gone to hell and all those evil RINOs have infested YOUR small-tent, puritanical vision of the Republican Party.
Yes, I have real respect for the Fredheads, they reflexively called anyone who didn’t jump behind Fred liberals for months. Go home, stay there, and cry a freaking river. We really don’t need the 4% revolution that is the puritanical Fredheads, and they’ve made it clear they don’t need us.
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 5:32 PM
So disappointing. Fred’s obituary will be in the papers tomorrow. Real shame.
I don’t understand the Fred hate and Fredhead provocation by AP. Is he not the most conservative in the race (outside of Hunter, perhaps)?????
ggoofer on January 19, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Ah, those 77% of South Carolina conservatives must’ve been taking marching orders from the Big A.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 5:34 PM
edgehead, well said.
Darksean on January 19, 2008 at 5:35 PM
Yep. We can smash the plates later if it really comes to that. Fred’s numbers are better than was predicted, and that’s a good thing. He can still come on for Super Tuesday.
TexasDan on January 19, 2008 at 5:35 PM
After 7pm (EST), Follow the SC results HERE
SouthernGent on January 19, 2008 at 5:36 PM
Mormons make up about 7.5% of the population of Nevada - a relatively large chunk, but even if they voted as a monolithic block they’re still not enough to cover Romney’s margin of victory - by a long shot.
Nice troll, though.
ErikTheRed on January 19, 2008 at 5:36 PM
AP is a traffic whore. Nothing more. If Fred goes, he’ll go back to endless Hitchens-athiest porn and the like and keep looking for ways to antagonize one side or the other, anything to PO enough people to keep hitting the ‘refresh’ button.
snickelfritz on January 19, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Dudes! Dudettes! The polls don’t close for another hour and a half! I hardly think this is the time to write anything off or jump to any conclusions.
Patience!
And BKennedy? Go f*#k yourself, and no, don’t bother replying. I’ve already decided to leave Hot Air since you and your orc buddies are allowed to continue treating others like this, and management seems to care not one whit.
I completely misjudged AP, Michelle and Bryan’s abilities to maintain some kind of control over the comments here.
My mistake, but it doesn’t meant I to continue repeating it.
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 5:38 PM
Dittoes!
DannoJyd on January 19, 2008 at 5:38 PM
Apparently, 92% of Mormons voted for Romney (that’s pretty monolithic), and made up about half of his support.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 5:38 PM
No one here said Fred didn’t have the best talking points, but when it comes to organization, effort, and experience Fred just couldn’t get it past the goal line.
pedestrian on January 19, 2008 at 5:38 PM
To be fair, you’ve been baiting them for months. It goes both ways.
a capella on January 19, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Traffic… generates traffic. Slimes the soul at the same time, but… traffic.
Stashiu3 on January 19, 2008 at 5:39 PM
In AP’s defence, his coverage of Fred has been pretty fair - he’s criticized where needed, and praised when due. In my view, most of his snark has been directed not so much at Fred as FredHeads (some of which has been deserved). The media (including Fox) is a different story, it feels to me like they’ve had it in for him all along. I fear though, that we’ll find that AP has been right about Fred all along.
I think he’s picked up momentum, but I don’t think endorsements amount ot a hill of beans this year - there’s been so many endorsements flying around already, who have they really benefitted? At this point, the only endorsement that would help would probably be Rush’s, and he won’t give it.
I’m for Fred, and I think he could maybe stay in if he finishes a strong second. But anything less, and I think his staying in will do nothing more than keep the others from running too far to the center.
Jezla on January 19, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Lovely. AP, please disregard all of your posts about amnesty, the mid-term elections, the war in Iraq, the Democrats, the overall situation in the Middle East…
Just go back to your posts about Hitchens and “the ike”.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 5:40 PM
Yeah. Real substance around here as mentioned by HA commentator Cold Steel.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 5:40 PM
Yeah. Actually, the saddest thing about that is Huckabee by six over McAmnesty, no? Anyone here not in tears?
TexasDan on January 19, 2008 at 5:40 PM
AP had a post on Eisenhower? SWEET!
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 5:41 PM
Yes, thank you. I actually prefer Fred to the rest of the field. I’m just not unrealistic about his flaws or chances.
Allahpundit on January 19, 2008 at 5:41 PM
Despite some of the terrible things that they have said about Huckabee, they are still welcome.
Wise Golden on January 19, 2008 at 5:41 PM
Heh.
ike=like
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Really? I guess you dont even bother to read the other columns here.
Tell ME THAT isnt identity politics???
Whos the troll now?
broker1 on January 19, 2008 at 5:42 PM
I guess what America is reduced to is voting for are hardcore Socialists because the opposing democratic party is full of straight up Communists. It’s a subtle shift into social cult of personality politics. MTV and the Liberal Left do control America and is a bad sign for America’s immediate future.
America’s infrastructure is being carted away and sold off cheap by foreign merchants. It’s the world’s biggest going out of business sales. The current batch politicians are just jockeying to see who will be the head auctioneer and the best compromiser of American principles.
Fire sale! Everything will burn when the store is cleared out.
Now we can really open our borders to free looting, I mean trade for all. Private property and intellectual property rights are dead to those who earn over a specific amount of money.
Everyone join in and screw others or be screwed first
Egfrow on January 19, 2008 at 5:42 PM
We may be unrealistic conservative dreamers, but we’re not idiots.
TexasDan on January 19, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Heh. It’s okay; I expect this sort of thing as people get angry and look for a scapegoat. The media will bear most of the brunt.
Allahpundit on January 19, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Have a wonderful and blessed life.
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 5:44 PM
Most FredHeads would never go to Huckster IMO. Me thinks most would go to Mitt, but the votes ain’t been counted yet folks.
Remember exit polls in 2004 that had John “slander the troops” Kerry picking out curtains?
ReaganConservative3 on January 19, 2008 at 5:45 PM
Despite some of the terrible things that they have said about Huckabee, they are still welcome.
Wise Golden on January 19, 2008 at 5:41 PM
I havent said anything terrible about Huckabee, but I will not vote for him. I am a grown man and due not need a nanny to take care of or tell me what’s best for me. That is my opinion and my service lets me say that.
Defensor Fortis
mo_gunslinger on January 19, 2008 at 5:46 PM
No scapegoat. If my guy takes a beating, that’s perfectly fine. If he does well, that’s fine, too. I’ve stated that a number of times.
The thing that gets me is the amount of garbage you let slide through here in the comments. What gives with that? How much abuse, spam and trolling is allowed in the HA ops manual? Do you even pay attention to how your threads get killed?
wccawa on January 19, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Huck’s gonna run out of Rick Warren puppet voters pretty quick now.
I’m a lot more worried about him getting a VP slot, basking in the limelight for 4 years, then taking a serious run in 2012. He’s about done for this cycle, but fear he’s like gum on a shoe, now that he’s had a little taste.
a capella on January 19, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Congrats to Mitt for Nevada.
I’m a little wistful, but mustering to fight another day!
Thanks to Bryan and AP for all the analysis. Really, really great job.
RushBaby on January 19, 2008 at 5:46 PM
I’m looking out my window, but I still don’t see pigs flying.
:-)
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 5:47 PM
I think I speak for many Fredheads when I say that the Shuckster will get my vote only under one circumstance - he’s the only Republican on the general election ticket, and there’s no good 3rd party option.
He’s a pro-life lying sack of crap. If you’re willing to sacrifice your religious and conservative principles to vote for him because of the his pro-life bonafides, then you’re as hypocritical as he is.
peski on January 19, 2008 at 5:47 PM
The difference is that Huckashmuck is trumping up the Christian leader routine and basically promoting his campaign entirely through Evangelical churches.
Mitt isn’t trolling around calling himself a “Mormon leader.”
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Allah you know Im a Fred guy and think you have been perfectly balanced. Its just it used to be civil in here and since open registration it has been personal attack after personal attack.
Either way, job well done.
broker1 on January 19, 2008 at 5:47 PM
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