Fox News, AP call it for McCain; Update: Huck blames Fred for loss?
posted at 9:19 pm on January 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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He’s the presumptive nominee now, especially with Rudy fading. How do you feel?
Update (Bryan): I feel like it’s hard to see either McCain or Huckabee winning the nomination. Huckabee can’t win in South Carolina, a southern state with a heavy evangelical contingent. McCain won overall but doesn’t appear to have won among conservatives, again. So the top two finishers in SC carry very limited appeal.
The question is, who can unify these voters under the conservative party’s banner?
Update: The good news: Huckabee’s basically done. The breakdown:
He can’t win among non-evangelicals. This makes Florida essentially a three-man race between McCain, Mitt, and Rudy, with Huckabee still around to pull votes from Romney among social cons.
Update: Huckabee’s at the podium now taking veiled digs at Mitt by congratulating McCain on not doing any negative campaigning.
Update: Have a look at the recent Florida polls. What do you think they’ll look like this week? To put it another way, is this the end for Rudy?
Update: A noble defeat:
It’s clear who Huckabee camp is blaming for its squeaker of a loss in South Carolina: Fred Thompson.
After Huckabee’s gracious concession speech — in which he had nothing but kind words for John McCain who he said showed great “civility” — former SC Gov. David Beasley, a Huckabee surrogate, railed against Thompson.
“Fred hurt us in South Carolina,” Beasley began. “He had one goal and one goal only — to distort Mike Huckabee’s record so John McCain could pull it out. No ifs, ands or buts about it….
“One thing about Fred; I love Fred, but Fred’s not stupid….I don’t think he had any intention in South Carolina but to hurt Mike Huckabee…. Had Fred Thompson not been in the race, this would have been an overwhelming, dynamic victory for Mike Huckabee.”
McCain’s team also thinks Fred was the difference.
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All Romney will do is nail her on her constantly shifting, opportunistic views, and her lack of experience.
The truth is the election may be about Iraq. If the present trends continue every time she voted against the effort will haunt her.
Micheal on January 19, 2008 at 9:59 PM
Holla.
Vizzini on January 19, 2008 at 9:59 PM
Woulda coulda shoulda. Maybe if Fred had worked in the private sector and had a different BIO in that regard things might have turned out differently.
I don’t think that Fred would want to be a V.P., but in any case I can’t imagine having Fred on one’s “team”. Can you imagine him working with Mitt? One has endless energy, the other thinks it’s a part time job. I think it would drive Mitt crazy.
That’s not to say that Fred doesn’t have good ideas and principles, he’s just not ready for prime time.
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 9:59 PM
I think our only hope is Fred.
secular conservatives will not turn out for Huck
Real Conservatives will not turn out for McCain
Evangelicals will not turn out for Mitt
If Fred aint our guy then the GOP will lose.
What could happen would be either Cankles or Hussain start a splinter party as they are so close.
TheSitRep on January 19, 2008 at 10:00 PM
I hope that’s a joke.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Bring on the Misery Index. And let it be under Defecrat leadershit to make sure they get the blame.
The retiring Baby Boomers, Gen X’ers and XBox generations need to find out what a real economic downturn is. Complaining about 5% unemployment?! Just wait until it (and inflation) gets up over 10%.
We might just get some conservatives back in office … in about 4 years.
In case we don’t, I’m buying guns with my $800 rebate.
BowHuntingTexas on January 19, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Mitt got more evangelicals then Huckabee in Michigan. Not saying he’s a lock for them, but he’s certainly not going to drive them away if he’s fighting Hillary or Obama
Micheal on January 19, 2008 at 10:02 PM
True.
And if it weren’t for the utter incompetence of Fred and the social con grabbing of Huckabee and Thompson, Romney would be in the lead.
So really, Fred and Huck are spoilers for the Romney campaign.
Except unlike Fred, Romney’s spoilers didn’t doom him to third in his last stand.
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Good god people. . Just thank yer lucky stars it ain’t
Huckabee.
Texyank on January 19, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Holla.
Vizzini on January 19, 2008 at 10:03 PM
McCain making his vistory speech now.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Super Thompson Tuesday!
Y’all are too pesimistic.
Fred!
infidel on January 19, 2008 at 10:03 PM
If he’s still around for Super Tuesday.
amerpundit on January 19, 2008 at 10:04 PM
How about this for the FredHeads… McCain gets the nomination, taps Fred as the VP, McCain/Thompson wins but McCain only stays one term (he had noted in some interview that he wouldn’t rule out just one term and out due to age, from what I recall), then you get Thompson running with some money and organization behind him. Eh? That’s the best I got for y’all.
Wineaholic on January 19, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Huckabee isn’t going anywhere. My biggest fear is that he may be the VP, but I sure hope not!
But I don’t think Romney can stop McCain. Maybe we can hope for a McCain/Romney ticket.
FloatingRock on January 19, 2008 at 10:04 PM
“What’s eight years among friends” –
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Bob Dole 2.0
LevStrauss on January 19, 2008 at 10:04 PM
In for a penny in for a pound of Mike Huckabee’s Flesh
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 10:04 PM
He doesn’t have the money, and now he won’t get it.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 10:05 PM
40% of Floridians have already voted absentee according to Sean Hannity FNC.
Any bets on who they voted for?
Mine:
They didn’t vote Huckabee.
They didn’t vote McCain.
Probably split mostly between Giuliani and Romney.
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 10:05 PM
Fred is not dropping out. Why should he? Has even one/eighth of the country spoken? Fred is conservative on ALL the issues, not just a few cherries. Why hold your nose to vote for a liberal-wannabe that is *better* on ONE issue? Nope, FRED all the way, even if I have to do it by write-in. The MSM and the internet bloggers who keep up this “he’s dropping out” meme can kiss off.
annexwcp on January 19, 2008 at 10:05 PM
A quick thought:
Is Sen. GrAMNESTY a possible VP candidate for McAmnesty?
He is with him everywhere.
*vomit*
LordMaximus on January 19, 2008 at 10:06 PM
If by “negative” you mean reminding the voters of McCain’s record of:
Voting against the Bush Tax Cuts
Writing the Amnesty Bill
McCain-Feingold
Then you are CORRECT sir.
joncoltonis on January 19, 2008 at 10:06 PM
I feel like I need a really, really long shower.
/bang head on desk multiple times.
boomer on January 19, 2008 at 10:06 PM
I think I was about six when I found out Santa Claus wasn’t real…..
Bradky on January 19, 2008 at 10:07 PM
I think it’s now a McCain/Mitt battle. I weep for our party if this is the best we can put out. Both can beat Hillary, but McCain probably has a broader appeal.
Although honestly, with McCain on the ticket, wouldn’t we just be voting for the Democrat we like best?
lodestonejames on January 19, 2008 at 10:07 PM
So, who do you think can beat Hillary?
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 10:08 PM
BTW, my point is that if it weren’t for Romney’s wealth, Fred would have given McCain a run for his money today. And if it hadn’t also been for Huckabee’s religious rhetoric, Fred would have smashed McCain.
FloatingRock on January 19, 2008 at 10:08 PM
I think this dude is the most likely VP choice for McCain.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 10:08 PM
Damn McCain is old!
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 10:08 PM
Well if it MUST be McCain, please let it be
McCain/Thompson!!
Sammy316 on January 19, 2008 at 10:09 PM
Just fine. McCain is a moderate and I like that. Most Americans are moderates also.
terryannonline on January 19, 2008 at 10:09 PM
I bet winning SC feels especially sweet for McCain.
Spirit of 1776 on January 19, 2008 at 10:09 PM
How ironic that a man who tried to railroad an amnesty bill down the throats of the American people claims to be running to, “restore the peoples’ faith in their Government.”
TheBigOldDog on January 19, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Scariet statistic of the night: On the CNN exit poll, 48% of SC GOP voters stated they vote on issues, and 51% on personal qualities. If everyone people voted on issues, we’d have very different outcomes.
JustTruth101 on January 19, 2008 at 10:10 PM
We’ll see, smart guy.
FloatingRock on January 19, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Santa Claus is not real, but conservative values are. Mine are not for sale.
annexwcp on January 19, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Lindsey Graham(the vice president) looks happier then McCain.
Complete7 on January 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
I agree with AP. At this point, the only hope of defeating MCain is for Fred and Huck to drop out and to let those votes go to Mitt and McCain in the remaining primaries and caucuses, with Mitt receiving most of those votes IMO.
CliffHanger on January 19, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Yea, he was slimed there 8 years ago. It’s personal
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 10:12 PM
“We’re gonna tell the bigots to shut up.”
TheBigOldDog on January 19, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Famous last words:
We make out last stand here! ~General Custer/Fred Thompson.
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 10:12 PM
I don’t understand the sentiment that McCain is better than Huckabee.
Would you rather see McCain (possibly) win or Huckabee lose? Anything’s better than rewarding McShamnesty with the nomination (and, god forbid, the presidency).
amkun on January 19, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Yeah, you would, you RINO twat…
doubleplusundead on January 19, 2008 at 10:13 PM
I can’t possibly vote for McCain. I wouldn’t be able to keep my food down. I wouldn’t be able to sleep at night. If he won it by some freaky deaky miracle I wouldn’t be able to leave the house.
Griz on January 19, 2008 at 10:13 PM
However, when Guiliani quits after Florida, I’m unclear as to where those votes might go.
CliffHanger on January 19, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Do we have the immigration minded voters breakdowns? I want to see if it was like the Michigan anti war voters who voted for McCain. Can we just institute a rule that any state where Huckabee gets 25% or more loses its delegates? I think that would be a smart move.
LevStrauss on January 19, 2008 at 10:15 PM
McCain has been the top dog in Florida since the New Hampshire Primary so is logically him
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 10:16 PM
You know it is funny when you start doing the name calling about RINOs. Face it: Many of the base has treated the moderates like the ugly fat girl after she leaves your backseat on Friday night.
Happy to get our vote, but refuse to listen to acknowledge us afterwards.
Bradky on January 19, 2008 at 10:16 PM
What you’re forgetting is that early voting’s been going on for awhile in Florida while Rudy’s had the state to himself. And all this time he’s been banking absentees.
Will it be enough?
I’m not saying I know. But with all the heat Rudy’s taken from all sides he’s going to be more and more viable over the next ten days as the story becomes Florida wwhere he’s very much visible and part of the story and not the already finished primaries.
I rate Rudy’s odds of pulling it off right about 50/50.
Typhoon on January 19, 2008 at 10:17 PM
Yup.
Allahpundit on January 19, 2008 at 9:57 PM
yup? dude you are seriously dumb
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 10:17 PM
McCain, by about 3:1, is my guess. They’re very similar personally and politically, and Rudy has already pre-endorsed JMac.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 10:17 PM
If McCain is the nominee, we MUST go vote for Hillary or Obama, do NOT stay home. If there is a president with an R behind his name who gives citizenship to 20 million illegals, the conservative movement will be dead for our generation. The GOP will have to be replaced, that’ll take what, 40 or 50 years? I guess if that happens, though, the dollar will be almost worthless, ss will fail, the healthcare system will implode, and we won’t recognize our country, so it won’t matter too much anyway. Unless you have children or grandchildren of course.
JustTruth101 on January 19, 2008 at 10:17 PM
Florida Republican Primary Polls
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 10:17 PM
It’ll be interesting if Fred bails before Florida. That could affect the poll numbers big time… I see most Fredheads splitting toward Romney more than anyone.
Luckedout on January 19, 2008 at 10:18 PM
This is what us Conservatives get for delaying amnesty, the Republican Establishment is going to shove McCain down our throats.
LevStrauss on January 19, 2008 at 10:19 PM
What votes? He lost to Paul AGAIN. You’d get more traction figuring out where Paul’s votes go when he drops out.
ThackerAgency on January 19, 2008 at 10:19 PM
Take a deep breath. It’s going to be okay. Read the following for a reasonable analysis.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/607onvmn.asp
Bradky on January 19, 2008 at 10:20 PM
Even if that were true it would only be as a result of Romney’s wealth. Romney would still be competing with Tancredo if it weren’t for his wealth.
FloatingRock on January 19, 2008 at 10:22 PM
I think that is likely correct.
Spirit of 1776 on January 19, 2008 at 10:23 PM
According to the polls, Florida is essentially a 3 way tie (within the margin of error) and Mitt Romney has a few things going for him:
1. He has the most delegates so far
2. He has the most money to spend on ads
3. He has won the Latino vote among Republicans in every primary so far
joncoltonis on January 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
I like this part:
Conservative editorialists, radio hosts, and bloggers are unhappy. They don’t like the Republican presidential field, and many of them have been heaping opprobrium on the various GOP candidates with astonishing vigor.
For example: John McCain–with a lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 82.3–is allegedly in no way a conservative. And, though the most favorably viewed of all the candidates right now, both among Republicans and the electorate as a whole, he would allegedly destroy the Republican party if nominated.
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Bar an unlikely viable third party candidate that is exactly my intention.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
wait I thought Fred backers were mocked for being such a tiny minority that even Ron paul beats in elections ?
So how will Fred dropping out help Mitt ?
And will add its not Fred who is taking votes from Mitt its Huckabee who is fighting with mitt for the religeous right and Social conservative votes.
William Amos on January 19, 2008 at 10:27 PM
I’m thinking maybe that’s the only thing to do.
doubleplusundead on January 19, 2008 at 10:28 PM
1. Not after South Carolina (winner take all)
2. Not after South Carolina (donations will be pouring in from bandwaggoners who want influence now).
3. Not after McCain’s shamnesty and emotional appeal to the illegal alien mother of a soldier in Iraq.
ThackerAgency on January 19, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Words Matter [Kathleen Parker]
McCain’s best moment: “We are the captains of our fate.”
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDg5NmRjMDFjZjQwMjI1NDVhMTYwZmIzN2NhZjkxMDE=
bnelson44 on January 19, 2008 at 10:29 PM
Yeah, because when we do what the moderates want, we start losing elections…
doubleplusundead on January 19, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Dick Cheney FTW!
lorien1973 on January 19, 2008 at 10:30 PM
I think it depends on what moderate principles are accepted. I could go with moderate social positions; but not moderate economic positions.
lorien1973 on January 19, 2008 at 10:30 PM
It is either that or commender one of Dennis Kucinich’s UFO’s and colonize Mars.
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 10:31 PM
1. Yes, after SC. Nevada had more delegates than SC.
2. Time will tell, but Romney is also gaining momentum (from conservatives)
3. McCain’s pandering will not help him as much as you think. 40% of Latino’s want to see an end to illegal immigration, and most of Florida’s Latinos are Cuban not Mexican.
joncoltonis on January 19, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Good link - thanks.
Not sure that I agree that Huck is like FDR - except for his liberalism; one was a Patrician while the other is Gomer Pyle.
I do agree that Mitt is like JFK and said so the other day.
Buy Danish on January 19, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Exactly. The only thing you find in the middle of the road is road kill.
TheBigOldDog on January 19, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Just like in 1986 when we granted amnesty, it completely destroyed the conservative movement… oh wait no it didn’t. Now I’m not suggesting that we grant amnesty but telling people to vote for Obama or Hillary is insane.
Complete7 on January 19, 2008 at 10:33 PM
MB4 on January 19, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Yes, I’d either vote for a viable third party candidate if the GOP nominates McCain, but short of that, I’m voting me a dem-o-crat, just like my hippie parents. That’ll make them proud.
JustTruth101 on January 19, 2008 at 10:34 PM
I’m gonna revel in CNN coverage
same analysis as Hot Air
windansea on January 19, 2008 at 10:34 PM
I think you misunderstand why it kills the movement. It kills it because it virtually guarantees Democrat majorities for generations.
TheBigOldDog on January 19, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Victory parades, too.
Big S on January 19, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Two bits, four bits, six bits a Juan McShamnesty Peso
All those for colonizing Mars stand up at say so!
Tuco on January 19, 2008 at 10:36 PM
In 1986 it was 3 million, not 20, and it was supposed to be a one-time deal followed up with border security. There’s a big difference culturally and economically between 3 and 20 million.
JustTruth101 on January 19, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Normally, I agree, but this year is the exception to the rule, as distrustful and on edge as the different factions of the conservative movement are, we needed a full spectrum conservative who could bring something to the table for everyone.
doubleplusundead on January 19, 2008 at 10:36 PM
No, they take up the whole road.
TheBigOldDog on January 19, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Reagan didn’t get moderate democrats to vote for him in both elections by ignoring them.
Bradky on January 19, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Romney-Rudy 2008.
McCain retires to pick lettuce.
Huckabee goes on a road production of “Elmer Gantry”.
Fred gets signed for a new cable series called “Whatever”.
profitsbeard on January 19, 2008 at 10:37 PM
Rush Limbaugh has basically sworn off McCain and Huckabee. With Fred and Duncan out of the race that just leaves Rudy and Mitt… So we’re pretty close to having the tribal leader of the conservative party making an endorsement by elimination.
Micheal on January 19, 2008 at 10:37 PM
I think that the largest portion of Rudy’s votes will go to McCain, although if Fred were stronger right now, quite a few would go to him as well.
It’s basically Fred-Mitt-Huckabee in one corner and McCain-Rudy in the other, IMO.
FloatingRock on January 19, 2008 at 10:37 PM
This secular conservative has already decided that if Huck becomes the nominee, he just ain’t voting.
Regardless of the consequences.
Faced with the nightmare of a choice of Huck vs. the Hildebeest, my brain will simply melt. I can’t make a decision between two evils I see as being equal. Can only walk away and shake my head in disgust at what’s happened to the great country I love.
Shirotayama on January 19, 2008 at 10:37 PM
Sour grapes form the “Jesus” candidate:
Mcguyver on January 19, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Yeah, but who’s victory? Certainly not one for conservatism…
doubleplusundead on January 19, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Boo Freaking Hoo Huckster, Suck It Up!
BKennedy on January 19, 2008 at 10:38 PM
joncoltonis on January 19, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Nevada is a CAUCUS where delegats get split proportionately based on how they did. Nevada doesn’t have as many delegates, and some of those delegates will still go to McCain.
You still aren’t paying attention about how this works are you? The winner gets more donations. Romney won Michigan, but McCain is going to be the nomination (I don’t say that as a McCain supporter).
I don’t think you understand why most conservatives don’t like McCain. It isn’t pandering when it is his position that illegal aliens should be given citizenship if they pay $5000.
Bottom line is, it will be McCain vs. Hillary. Those will be the R and D nominations. It’s over. Pick from one of those.
ThackerAgency on January 19, 2008 at 10:38 PM
To quote the German-Jewish artist Max Liebermann, upon viewing the results in 1932 of another, even more disgusting electoral outcome:
“Ich kann gar nicht soviel fressen, wie ich kotzen mochte..”
Or, in my own translation:
‘I cannot shovel enough food into my mouth as I would like to vomit’
TexasJew on January 19, 2008 at 10:39 PM
They came to him. He didn’t go to them. He laid out a vision and people who agreed joined the movement.
TheBigOldDog on January 19, 2008 at 10:39 PM
It sounds insane onthe surface, but really it isn’t. The country needs a Carter to show them why they need a Raegan. And I ONLY suggest voting dem-o-crat if McShamnesty/anti-free-specch/”let’s add another 68 cents to a gallon of gas” McCain is nominated.
JustTruth101 on January 19, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Rudy isn’t dead yet folks. He’s the only candidate who hasn’t gone negative yet. Look for him to make a big splash in the Florida debates next week. You can bet he will go after McCain and paint him as a Republican we can’t trust. A guy who will make deals with Teddy Kennedy. Rudy has to win Florida, but I think we will see a few “shock and awe’s” from him in the next week that will make people question McCain.
froghat on January 19, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Yeah, and he didn’t do it by selling out principles as far as I can tell.
doubleplusundead on January 19, 2008 at 10:40 PM
Mitt still has more delegates the McCain + Huckabee
Micheal on January 19, 2008 at 10:41 PM
One interesting note is that illegal immigration was a big deal in South Carolina. I thought that might hurt McCain, but it didn’t seem to.
When you get outside the cyberworld us dorks seem to stay in, most people look at the big picture and don’t bother much with the details.
The big picture here is experience and leadership and honesty.
Rightwingsparkle on January 19, 2008 at 10:41 PM
If McCain wins it, the CRITICAL element is “who does he pick as Veep”? The dude’s freakin’ SEVENTY-ONE already. That’s a good couple of years older than when Reagan was inaugurated. How long can Mac last???
If McCain wins the nom, I doubt he’d offer it to Mitt. Bot Mac and Huck seem to genuinely HATE Mitt’s guts. And I don’t see any love lost on Mitt’s part either.
Who does Mac pick? Huck? I’ll still decide not to vote, Huck just scares me too freakin’ much. Now if Mac picked Fred…and if Fred accepted…they’ve got me.
Shirotayama on January 19, 2008 at 10:41 PM
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