Nevada: Romney, Clinton have solid leads
posted at 8:49 am on January 18, 2008 by Bryan
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Of course, we all thought Obama had a comfortable lead in New Hampshire. So there’s that.
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney have comfortable leads in Nevada going into Saturday’s presidential campaign caucuses, according to a new Review-Journal poll.
Clinton’s 9-point lead over Barack Obama, 41 percent to 32 percent, maintains the lead she’s held in most state polls despite Obama’s intense efforts to compete here and his recent union endorsements. John Edwards trails with 14 percent of the vote.
Romney’s unique investment in the state appears to be paying off, with the help of the big dive Rudy Giuliani’s numbers have taken after poor showings in previous states.
Romney leads John McCain by 15 points, 34 percent to 19 percent. Giuliani, who led the last Review-Journal poll, is in sixth place.
If the lead holds for Romney, he’ll pick up a second win in a mostly uncontested state, but it’ll still be his third win and if we really are headed for a brokered convention, he’s building up a healthy delegate count. Hillary is doing the same on the Dem side, but the Culinary Union endorsement and casino lawsuit may leave lasting bad blood.
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Maybe Obama’s Spanish ad will get some traction.
If you live by identity politics, you die by identity politics.
Valiant on January 18, 2008 at 9:03 AM
Wow… a 15 point lead is pretty big. I can’t imagine anyone catching up to him. Clinton can be caught if Obama can get a big push, but it seems like the media’s infatuation with him isn’t converting into votes.
Luckedout on January 18, 2008 at 9:04 AM
If it’s not a win for McCain, that’s good enough for me.
snickelfritz on January 18, 2008 at 9:04 AM
by saying Him I mean Mitt
Luckedout on January 18, 2008 at 9:05 AM
Mittmentum baby!!! Mittmentum!
Sugar Land on January 18, 2008 at 9:12 AM
It says something for Romney’s strategy that he is out there courting votes in Nevada instead of joining the herd pandering to South Carolinians. Could it be that Romney can “bridge” the divide within the GOP in ways that divisive candidates like McCain could never accomplish?
highhopes on January 18, 2008 at 9:13 AM
Hispanics will not vote for a black. Their union leadership might endorse him and give him money but the rank and file are the homeboys who grew up pitted against blacks and usually losing their fair share of the welfare dollar to blacks.
snaggletoothie on January 18, 2008 at 9:20 AM
I’m with Mitt!
JustTruth101 on January 18, 2008 at 9:22 AM
Maybe Obama’s Spanish
ad♫ ♫ ♫ Spanish lullaby ♫ ♫ ♫ will get some traction.YOU WILL BE ASSIMILATED!!
Mcguyver on January 18, 2008 at 9:33 AM
I’m hoping for a Romney/Thompson ticket.
highhopes on January 18, 2008 at 9:37 AM
Go Hillary!
funky chicken on January 18, 2008 at 9:43 AM
There’s tons of Mormons in Nevada. Romney’s win there was pretty much a given for me. My folks live outside of Vegas and it’s big time Mormon country.
Nothing wrong with that, of course.
And I don’t think the dem caucus is gonna entice many Mormons to participate over there… :-)
funky chicken on January 18, 2008 at 9:45 AM
Wait ’till the bar boy union speaks their mind. This country runs on ice cubes and martini olives.
Hening on January 18, 2008 at 10:00 AM
Know what’s funny?
If Obama were a Republican, he’d have smooth sailing all the way to the White House. He’s praised Reagan–no doubt because someone in his campaign heard Bill Maher say Repulicans love Reagan in a way that’s “almost gay” and figured he could pander off a vote or two…
But what if the guy–instead of a doctrinaire liberal–really was a supply-side Pro-life conservative Republican, and everything else about him was the same?
The press wouldn’t fawn over him. He wouldn’t be the darling of MSNBC, but he’d breeze to the nomination, because on our side it’s really not about identity.
It may just be that in the Democrat party it is, and he can’t. If this poll holds it’s very bad news for Obama. Among Democrats, if women hold for Hillary and Hispanics indeed won’t vote for him because he’s black–which of course can’t be mentioned but may very well be true–it may be that he just can’t climb the Hill.
Typhoon on January 18, 2008 at 10:00 AM
I gotta think that most of the latinos who work in the casinos are illegal and are not registered to vote. Having many of the Democratic caucus’ in casinos are probably helpful to Obama.
bnelson44 on January 18, 2008 at 10:03 AM
I think it is a good move on Mitt’s part to get a good win in NV heading towards FL and Super Tuesday.
bnelson44 on January 18, 2008 at 10:05 AM
True, there are lots of LDS people in Nevada.
Wikipedia says that the population of Nevada is 2,495,529
According to the Church web site there are 169,714 members in Nevada.
http://www.newsroom.lds.org/ldsnewsroom/eng/contact-us/usa-nevada
Almost 7% Not as large as one would think given their proximity to Utah. The LDS (LDS means Liberal Deficiency Syndrom) people are very conservative and they do vote.
The Rock on January 18, 2008 at 10:09 AM
Hill’s 15 points up in Nevada?
Hillaryland Security Update:
Billy Jeff THREAT LEVEL changed to LOW.
fogw on January 18, 2008 at 10:16 AM
No, according to this poll, Hillary is 9 points, Mitt is 15 points ahead.
bnelson44 on January 18, 2008 at 10:23 AM
Revised Hillaryland Security Update:
Billy Jeff THREAT LEVEL increased to MODERATE.
fogw on January 18, 2008 at 10:29 AM
true
bnelson44 on January 18, 2008 at 10:36 AM
lol.
CABE on January 18, 2008 at 10:43 AM
I’m with Mitt!
madmonkphotog on January 18, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
ChrisM on January 18, 2008 at 11:10 AM
I am Hoping Romney does well in NV and SC. He’s pretty much my candidate.
However, since its apparent he’s pretty much pulled out of SC…
GO FRED!!!!
School those RINOs!!!! get some Momentum!
-Wasteland Man.
WastelandMan on January 18, 2008 at 11:13 AM
While Hil’s pumping arms and kissing babies in Nevada, she’d better keep an eye on hubby.
“Bill? Bill? Where are you?”
Somebody call the Mustang Ranch.
whitetop on January 18, 2008 at 11:14 AM
I could work with that!
mattyj86 on January 18, 2008 at 11:18 AM
Romney and South Carolina [Byron York]
Kathryn, I think Romney’s re-positioning himself on South Carolina leaves out a bit of the story. He may be downplaying his chances here, but he has worked the state very hard for a long time – and he still is. I’ve been coming here to cover this race since 2006, and it seemed like everywhere I would go, to cover McCain or Giuliani, someone would say that Romney had been there yesterday, or was coming next week. He was in the state a lot.
I spoke last night to Richard Quinn, who is McCain’s chief strategist in South Carolina. “I think Romey’s playing possum,” Quinn told me. “He has spent more money on TV, radio, mail, phone, staff, and consultants by at least ten to one than any other candidate running for president. He only went black on TV for about three days. This is all spin for them to say they’re not playing in South Carolina.” Quinn might be exaggerating a bit, but if he is, it’s not by much.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGI0MzRhMGQzODQxMWU4NWIyOWJkOGU4NWQ5ZDYxOGY=
bnelson44 on January 18, 2008 at 11:23 AM
There is a much larger Catholic community in Nevada.
Harry Reid is a Mormon, and they keep voting that dope back into office. But I think the writings on the wall for Harry. He is behaving in a way that regular Nevadans have never seen and they are not happy with his pandering to the anti-military loons.
csdeven on January 18, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Hispanics don’t like Gringos either.
apostle53 on January 18, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Ha! Identity politics for sure! I can just imagine the discussion leading up to the libs decicing to support him.
lib 1: He’s black.
lib 2: Yeah, and articulate and clean.
csdeven on January 18, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Go Hillary!
funky chicken on January 18, 2008 at 9:43 AM
i agree! Go… go far, far away… and stay away!
max1 on January 18, 2008 at 11:36 AM
This just popped up on the Chicago Tribune online this morning: A new song just popped into the usual easy-listening music played at Hillary Clinton events — AC/DC’s raunchy “You Shook Me All Night Long.”
The opening lyrics:
She was a fast machine
She kept her motor clean
She was the best damn woman I had ever seen
She had the sightless eyes
Telling me no lies
Knockin’ me out with those American thighs
pilamaye on January 18, 2008 at 11:44 AM
It looks like Hillary is out in front and with the party bosses supporting her, Hillary will win the nomination. It is also apparent that McCain can beat her but Hillary will beat the others. So let’s stop the sniping about McCain. The choice is now McCain, with all his imperfections and Hillary, who has more baggage than the American Airlines terminal at JFK.
Larraby on January 18, 2008 at 12:16 PM
So what was the difference between the two?
John McShamnesty is just as bad for this country albeit in different areas.
Say hola to your new overlords!
csdeven on January 18, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Newsflash: If McCain is the nominee, many, many Republicans will be staying home…including me. No amnesty for illegals! Go Mitt!
davenp35 on January 18, 2008 at 12:48 PM
It matters not what the polls say today re: a McCain/Hillary matchup, or any other matchup against Hillary for that matter. I believe Mitt, Fred, and yes even Hunter, can defeat Hillary or Obama because conservatives will come around to supporting them. McCain or Huck will have a very difficult time motivating conservative voters.
A candidate who does not pull together a coalition of conservative and independent voters will lose IMO.
What matters is we nominate the (R) candidate who most closely shares our conservative values AND who has the best potential for winning over independents, with our help of course, against our (D) opponent.
CliffHanger on January 18, 2008 at 12:59 PM
davenp35 on January 18, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Bite your tongue. Do you honestly prefer Hillary over McCain?
The last time GOP voters stayed home we ended up with Pelosi in charge.
And by the way, I don’t like McCain one bit either. It just so happens I hate seeing our great country turned into a socialist commune more.
Don’t stay home Dude.
fogw on January 18, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Can we do ouselves a favor? Can we stop talking about McCain as if this is already settled? Can we focus on the task at hand?
There’s a lot of primary left to go. Don’t make me apply an Iraq ‘defeat-and-retreat’ analogy to some of our commenters.
CliffHanger on January 18, 2008 at 1:06 PM
I agree. I don’t know why people are touting McCain as the winner when the only thing he’s won is NH… which only has a few delegates anyhow. There is essentially a statistical dead heat in national polls among Guliani, McCain, Romney and Huckabee. This one is going the distance… who can make it till the end?
Luckedout on January 18, 2008 at 1:42 PM
If it’s not a win for McCain, that’s good enough for me.
snickelfritz on January 18, 2008 at 9:04 AM
Ditto!!!
kcd on January 18, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Because the MSM want McLame! They see Billary in big trouble, they don’t see Obama winning the general, so they push the most liberal Repub, just in case the dims can’t pull it off…think about it.
kcd on January 18, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Just………Go……….Home.
ThePrez on January 18, 2008 at 3:10 PM
There is nothing to fear from a McCain presidency. I didn’t like the immigration bill either. But that bill is dead as a doornail. It is not coming back. If McCain is president, he is not going to risk his political capital on another Ted Kennedy immigration bill. McCain won’t need to do it and it would never pass if he did. McCain is not going to raise taxes. If he tried he would fail miserably. He says he will continue the Bush tax cuts and I take him at his word. As far as electibility goes, any other Republican faces an electoral college defeat right from the getgo. Any Republican but McCain will lose all the states that Kerry took in 2004. That is a given. So to win, Hillary Clinton only needs to win one additional state: Ohio. And Ohio is now a state that is completely Democrat. The Republicans in Ohio were so corrupt that they lost Ohio for a long time. McCain can compete in places like PA. and NJ where he can peel away suburban voters. In a strange way, people who are against John McCain must want Hillary to be president. Need I remind everyone of the scene where American soldiers and sailors are forced to parade in front of and then salute President Hillary Clinton and her husband, one Bill Clinton. Just thinking about this prospect makes one sick!
Larraby on January 18, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Mormon leads in mormon country….who’d of thunk it?
Wait isn’t Harry Reid a mormon also?
Nevadaites certainly are savvy, intelligent voters.
HaraldHardrada on January 18, 2008 at 4:14 PM
I think it’s partly expectations management, tied to polling. If he skips out of SC and doesn’t make the top 3, he can say “oh well, I was focusing on NV.” And of course, he will probably win NV, which other candidates have largely bypassed. I think he knows he can’t win SC.
cs89 on January 18, 2008 at 4:31 PM
Larraby, I respectfully but vehemently disagree.
Except for this, of course:
” Need I remind everyone of the scene where American soldiers and sailors are forced to parade in front of and then salute President Hillary Clinton and her husband, one Bill Clinton. Just thinking about this prospect makes one sick!”
————
I think the emphasis on winning the presidency is important. However, shamnesty, and the dream act originated in congress. Bush was COMPLETELY behind it, (remember his “see you at the signing” comment just before it was defeated?) and still it failed. The house members must face re-election every 2 years, so are a perfect target for grass roots action. Defeating senators running for re-election who supported amnesty THIS year will send a stronger message than any other vote. Lindsay Graham should be #1 on the defeat list. He was a STOOGE for McCain-Kennedy and amnesty. He has changed his “tune” lately, but when I see that silly grin beaming behind McCain speeches, I know he’s a liar. Don’t forget his award from La Raza, and his now almost forgotten line….Graham to La Raza…“We’re gonna tell the bigots to shut up”… Don’t forget, the bigots he speaks of are US!
Contribute to, or otherwise support his primary opponent if possible. Defeating him in the PRIMARY would be the ultimate insult, and maybe it would change some future votes re: amnesty in the senate. Also, for me it would remove the angst I would feel if I had to cheer his DEM opponent in the fall.
loaner on January 18, 2008 at 5:10 PM
For what it’s worth.
I was curious,so I looked up the following.
Not to start an argument, but I don’t think the Mormon factor is that important. Much of the migration in recent years has been hispanics, overwhelmingly Catholic.
Nevada party registration:
Dem=40.2%
Rep=39.3%
Other=20.5%
Re: “Dingy” Harry Reid:
2004 election
Reid 61% spent > 7 million
Ziser 35% ” 647k
Other 4%
1998 election
Reid 48% * spent 4.9 million
Ensign 48% ” 3.4 ”
Other 4%
*Reid won by 428 votes, Ensign won the next senate seat.
loaner on January 18, 2008 at 6:18 PM
Here in Nevada the winner outspends the loser 80% of the time. We follow the money. (Don’t blame me for Reid BTW.)
I’m caucusing for my boy Fred tomorrow but I have a feeling I’ll be a voice crying in the wilderness. All the ads on TV are for Obama or Hitlery.
Mark Levin was reading some founding father quotes today. We have gone so far away from their intent and from the laws of God here in America it’s scary.
Mojave Mark on January 18, 2008 at 7:41 PM
McCain has been on TV today in several current video clips. He looks and sounds absolutely beat. Also, the clip of his “won’t tell the soldier in Iraq we deported his mother” (paraphrasing, even though it’s in quotes) line has been shown a few times, not in a flattering way.
loaner on January 18, 2008 at 8:24 PM
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