Predictions: Michigan

posted at 8:38 am on January 15, 2008 by Allahpundit

The polls are open and time’s a-wastin’. If Romney can’t win on his home court then he can’t win anywhere, and I can’t believe he can’t win anywhere. Mitt in an upset, with a 50% chance of tears during the victory speech when he inevitably says something about Michigan having — oof — “brought home the gold.” Chance of tears from Hugh Hewitt? 100%.

Your class-warrior primary quote of the day, via K-Lo:

“For those of us for whom summer is not a verb, for those of us who didn’t go to fancy boarding schools on the east coast, for those of us who didn’t grow up with a silver spoon, who were lucky to have a spoon — ask those folks and they’ll tell you the economy is not doing well for them,” says Huckabee.

On the Dem side, it’s purely a question of Hillary’s margin of victory over “uncommitted.” Geraghty noted yesterday that she’s only at 48%; quite a stinker if she can’t break 50% running against, um, nobody. Figure that a few erstwhile Obama supporters will cross the aisle and vote in the GOP race and that she’ll make it with a few points to spare. You got the gold, Glacier!

hillympic.jpg

Update: Bad weather in Michigan means good news for Huck, whose troops are probably the most motivated.


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Mitt Romney by 2%

OKCubsFan on January 15, 2008 at 12:02 PM

If Romney can’t win on his home court then he can’t win anywhere, and I can’t believe he can’t win anywhere.

I don’t think it cuts quite that cleanly. If Romney wins among republicans, but McVain wins overall, it’s going to taint McVain’s win somewhat, IMO. People in future primaries are going to start asking why McVain has to rely on independents and liberals to win a Republican nomination, especially when he gets creamed by actual, registered Republicans.

thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 12:05 PM

Romney by 4%!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 12:07 PM

Romney
McCain
HuckaBYE
Thompson

Was reading that quote from Hucky. He must have watched Grapes of Wrath. Cuz he sure was channeling Tom Joad.

PowWow on January 15, 2008 at 12:08 PM

thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 12:05 PM

Agreed.

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 12:09 PM

I’m still with Mitt!

madmonkphotog on January 15, 2008 at 12:10 PM

Bain Capital is in some hot water right now for partnering with a ChiCom company that’s trying to buy ???? anybody remember? Communications company? Regardless, it would put top secret US data in the hands of the PRC.

How long as Romney been out of Bain Capital?

funky chicken on January 15, 2008 at 12:12 PM

McVain by two, and Romney caves.

MadisonConservative on January 15, 2008 at 12:13 PM

We’ll see, DS.

My prediction is that your election pundit reputation is going down the tubes.

Are you polled by Rasmussen and other pollsters frequently?

Do you always give them the same answer?

Even MM thought that your analysis is strange.

For me, it was strange that you got a call from Rasmussen at that time (you said that you clicked over too late).

Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 12:13 PM

People in future primaries are going to start asking why McVain has to rely on independents and liberals to win a Republican nomination, especially when he gets creamed by actual, registered Republicans.

thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 12:05 PM

Few people pay that close attention to the demographics of who voted for whom in the primaries. A win is a win in that it gets the media lovin’.

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Inquiring minds would like to know your inside track, DS.

Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 12:14 PM

November 2, 2007
Hunter: Romney should denounce Bain Capital’s Chinese ties
Posted: 08:20 PM ET
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Congressman Duncan Hunter, R-California, who is running for President, called on Mitt Romney, another GOP candidate, to take a public stance on the proposed partnership between the private equity firm Romney founded and a Chinese-based company.

Before running for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002, Romney was the CEO and founder of Bain Capital Partners, a highly successful venture capital and investment firm based in Boston which currently manages more than $50 billion in assets, according to the company’s website.

Last month, Bain Capital and China’s Huawei Technology purchased 3Com in a deal valued at $2.2 billion. The deal gave the Chinese company a minority stake in 3Com, an internet security company.

Hunter says that 3Com has contracts with the U.S. Dept. of Defense. However, Bain Capital tells CNN 3Com does not contract with the U.S. government directly, and the Chinese company will not have access to sensitive U.S.-origin technology or U.S. government sales as a result of this transaction.

In a letter addressed to Romney, provided to CNN by Hunter’s campaign, Hunter claims the Chinese company has ties to Saddam Hussein and the Taliban and asks Romney to come forward with a “clear statement” in opposition to the deal sealed last October.

The Bain Capital deal in question “can only be characterized as irresponsible,” Hunter said in a written statement.

In September, other Republicans in the House called on the Bush administration to block the merger and proposed a resolution that says the deal “threatens the national security of the United States and should not be approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.”

Romney’s campaign provided CNN the following statement in response to the request from Hunter, “Governor Romney is no longer involved in Bain Capital and their investment decisions.”

Huwei has been implicated in some dicey stuff before.

funky chicken on January 15, 2008 at 12:15 PM

Low turnout

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 12:20 PM

Juan Plantation Strawberries McQueeg by 2 because of dims being allowed to vote in Rep primary.

MB4 on January 15, 2008 at 12:25 PM

McCain (+4)
Romney
Huckabee
Giuliani
Paul
Thompson
etc.

I’ll go with the trend of Romney losing by more than the last scientific polls indicate, but not by as much as the exit polls indicate. My guess is that we’ll see McCain up pretty big +6 to +8 once the exit polls are leaked, with the margin tightening to + 3 or +4 as the final count rolls in. Huckabee will come in a very strong third. All of the others in the 5-12% range.

Big S on January 15, 2008 at 12:25 PM

The pundits might be saying there’s going to be a low turnout, but they seemed quite happy with their turnout at 11:30am at my polling location.

As for the weather being a factor….much of the snow has already melted on the streets and sidewalks, at least in my part of SE Michigan.

shibumi on January 15, 2008 at 12:31 PM

In Grand Rapids:

Voter turnout lower than expected

Rather than seeing the 20% as expected, they are seeing between 15% to 17%

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 12:35 PM

bnelson44,
Low voter turnout in my estimation is an indication that the democrats are holding out their vote because Obama is not on the ballet.

Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 12:36 PM

funky chicken on January 15, 2008 at 12:15 PM

You spoiled it for me…The knee jerk statement from Fred Haters is that he lobbied (a lie) for a terrorist. I was going around baiting them one by one, to see if they would denounce any other candidate for chumming up, or partnering up with these “political” criminals.
Rudy has similar skeletons in his closet.
So I guess all that is left is this:
If you think Fred was bad for being a lobbyist, look at Mitt’s company and who they keep company with.
Now watch the waffling begin, the justification…
Good post.

right2bright on January 15, 2008 at 12:38 PM

Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 12:36 PM

I agree

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 12:42 PM

Bain Capital is in some hot water right now for partnering with a ChiCom company that’s trying to buy ???? anybody remember? Communications company? Regardless, it would put top secret US data in the hands of the PRC.

How long as Romney been out of Bain Capital?

funky chicken on January 15, 2008 at 12:12 PM

I’m not a Romney fan by any stretch, everyone knows I’m a Fred supporter, but Romney, I did a story on this, and Romney had no connections with Bain when this deal was made, there’s plenty not to like about him, but this one isn’t a valid criticism. I’ll see if I can find that story at DPUD.

doubleplusundead on January 15, 2008 at 12:44 PM

Teh !Fred will win it by 20%

Why? Because all we Fredheads have now are wild unfounded hopeS

Kasper Hauser on January 15, 2008 at 12:46 PM

McCain will take it by a huge margin

On the other hand, I’ve never made a correct political prediction.

Buddahpundit on January 15, 2008 at 9:21 AM

Well you had best not start now.

MB4 on January 15, 2008 at 12:48 PM

Romney monies are in a Trust and the Trust does not have to answer any questions.

That is the official response by Mitt.

right2bright on January 15, 2008 at 12:49 PM

Okay, found the story but the link is dead, weak, maybe I’ll try and see if there is an archive of it or another story.

I hate dead links, one of the best things about having a blog is that its like a depository of stuff you may want to hang onto for future reference, but dead links always screw that up.

doubleplusundead on January 15, 2008 at 12:52 PM

In Grand Rapids:

Voter turnout lower than expected

Rather than seeing the 20% as expected, they are seeing between 15% to 17%

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 12:35 PM

Detroit is going to be low because it is so seriously blue, and the Dems arent really running. It is low here in grand Rapids because we got hit with a snow/rain/ice storm last night. I’ll be interested to see how many vote after work tonight.
Then again, I could be completely wrong. But FRED!s got two votes coming to him at around 6:30 tonight…

ConservativeLawStudent on January 15, 2008 at 12:53 PM

Few people pay that close attention to the demographics of who voted for whom in the primaries. A win is a win in that it gets the media lovin’.

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 12:14 PM

I don’t agree. After McVain won Michagan and NH in 2000, but lost in SC, the rap against him became one of “can’t win a majority of Republicans.” That proved to be true, as W. wiped him out in all the Republican-only primaries.

thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 12:55 PM

Please, someone make Romney stop with the silver and gold nonsense. Please, for the love of all that’s holy, stop it.

Yep, bad weather lowers turnout which favors Huckabee’s more motivated and organized voters. NRO has been posting reader emails regarding low turnout all morning. This is a real cliffhanger for Romney. He won’t survive an outright loss.

Vote Sauron 08 on January 15, 2008 at 12:57 PM

Just voted for Ron Paul. We aren’t going away. The blimp will soon be riding on 24″ rims.

BlackCapitalist on January 15, 2008 at 1:01 PM

An inch of snow is hardly considered “bad weather” here in Michigan. The streets were already clear when I voted this morning before work.

Spitfire9 on January 15, 2008 at 1:05 PM

ConservativeLawStudent on January 15, 2008 at 12:53 PM

I know there is flooding down by the border, and some of the rural areas have icy conditions but the larger areas of W MI are churning along…I don’t know if you agree or not, but my first thought on the turnout being down in our area was that the 3%-5% was the democrat factor.

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 1:09 PM

I don’t agree. After McVain won Michagan and NH in 2000, but lost in SC, the rap against him became one of “can’t win a majority of Republicans.” That proved to be true, as W. wiped him out in all the Republican-only primaries.

thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 12:55 PM

Don’t confuse voters with pundits- they don’t vote the same way. In 2000 Bush had a huge financial edge over McCain and appealed more to the conservative base in a two man race. This election is very different.

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 1:11 PM

Still witt Mitt. Having lived in Michigan years ago, I’m guessing that the U.P. will not be noticed, campaign-stopped, visited by any candidate. Which is a shame; it’s a beautiful area, though virtually barren of voters.
Rent “Escanaba In Da Moonlight” for a small taste of da Yoo Pee.

Doug on January 15, 2008 at 1:16 PM

Rather than seeing the 20% as expected, they are seeing between 15% to 17%

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 12:35 PM

Still pretty good for a primary where the “rats” have no vested interest in voting and the GOP only gets half the voice they would otherwise get.

Go EGR Pioneers!

highhopes on January 15, 2008 at 1:22 PM

Why people like McCain

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 1:30 PM

Go EGR Pioneers

!

My alma mater :)

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 1:31 PM

Huckabee didn’t have any spoons when he was growing up? That’s why he & Janet registered for housewarming gifts while leaving the governor’s mansion… (ducking).

cs89 on January 15, 2008 at 1:32 PM

Romney by 8%+

CABE on January 15, 2008 at 1:34 PM

ConservativeLawStudent on January 15, 2008 at 12:53 PM

I know there is flooding down by the border, and some of the rural areas have icy conditions but the larger areas of W MI are churning along…I don’t know if you agree or not, but my first thought on the turnout being down in our area was that the 3%-5% was the democrat factor.

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 1:09 PM

We had almost a foot of snow on top of a nice layer of ice along the lake in Holland. Most roads were salted and plowed, but I could see it deterring people from hitting the polls early. The dem factor you cannot discount though. I’ll wait until tonight.

ConservativeLawStudent on January 15, 2008 at 1:37 PM

How long as Romney been out of Bain Capital?

funky chicken on January 15, 2008 at 12:12 PM

He left in Bain Capital in 1998.

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 1:41 PM

Is it too late for Bob Dole to enter the race?

MB4 on January 15, 2008 at 1:43 PM

I think Bob Dole would be up for it.

MB4 on January 15, 2008 at 1:44 PM

ConservativeLawStudent on January 15, 2008 at 1:37 PM

I play in your neighboorhood 3 out of the 4 seasons..Obviously you can guess which one I don’t! :)

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 1:47 PM

Duncan Hunter!

Uh, he won’t win, but I like him!

Yishai on January 15, 2008 at 1:47 PM

Plants: not just for Hillary any more.

A well-publicized weekend photo-op for Mitt Romney turns out to have been missing a piece of information that might have undermined its credibility: the unemployed single mom at the center of the event was the mother of a Romney staffer.

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 2:07 PM

I hope Romney wins it, or we’re going to get stuck with McCain.

Any Rudy, Fred, or Huck supporters in Michigan should throw their votes behind Romney.

flenser on January 15, 2008 at 2:16 PM

Romney over McCain by 2-3 points. Romney gets a good bounce and wins Nevada, making him the new front runner.

The Hayekian on January 15, 2008 at 2:24 PM

I hope Romney wins it, or we’re going to get stuck with McCain.

Any Rudy, Fred, or Huck supporters in Michigan should throw their votes behind Romney.

flenser on January 15, 2008 at 2:16 PM

I thought about this, but I cant do it as long as FRED! is still in it.

I play in your neighboorhood 3 out of the 4 seasons..Obviously you can guess which one I don’t! :)

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 1:47 PM

Tulip Time? Thats when I avoid the city. Just kidding. Yeah, if the wind is blowing, we’re getting snowed on.

ConservativeLawStudent on January 15, 2008 at 2:45 PM

Please, someone make Romney stop with the silver and gold nonsense. Please, for the love of all that’s holy, stop it.

Vote Sauron 08 on January 15, 2008 at 12:57 PM

If he wins the gold, will they test him for steriods?

right2bright on January 15, 2008 at 2:47 PM

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 9:51 AM

The US already engages in that kind of diplomacy in Africa. It’s working quite well to keep the influence of radical Muslims ineffective.

csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 2:54 PM

I predict a Huckabee win by a very slim margin. Possibly even 1%. His supporters are much more motivated then Mitt and John’s.

popularpolitics on January 15, 2008 at 3:16 PM

McCain by 3

William Amos on January 15, 2008 at 3:19 PM

A well-publicized weekend photo-op for Mitt Romney turns out to have been missing a piece of information that might have undermined its credibility: the unemployed single mom at the center of the event was the mother of a Romney staffer.

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 2:07 PM

Nothing about the status of the mother being single and unemployed is untrue. So his son works for Romney’s campaign? So What? BFD! Even Sheppard Smith says this is a non-story.

Anything else, or are you determined to swing this to McCain or the Huckster?

csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 2:54 PM

Of course they do!

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 3:30 PM

Nothing about the status of the mother being single and unemployed is untrue. So his son works for Romney’s campaign? So What? BFD! Even Sheppard Smith says this is a non-story.
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 3:30 PM

How many motion sickness pills do you take a day to combat getting dizzy from all the spinning?

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 3:47 PM

Unlike Romney, I think Detroit made its own problems and needs to fix itself and I would think Rush, who people keep telling me is a free market conservative, should agree.

Romney says what he thinks he needs to say to get elected.

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 3:52 PM

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 3:52 PM

New Orleans made its own problems too but do you think that the billions of federal dollars that have poured in here is a mistake because of the free market?

Fact of the matter is that no politician ever won by telling voters (particularly in welfare dense areas like Detroit) that they need to solve their problems by the free market methods. Tough love doesn’t garner the votes that good old-fashioned pork does. It’s like choosing between a rice cake or chocolate cake for a snack. Chocolate cake is always the winner.

highhopes on January 15, 2008 at 4:01 PM

1. Rombo (Thanks to the low voter turnout)
2. Mac
3. Huck

Frank T.J Mackey on January 15, 2008 at 4:04 PM

highhopes on January 15, 2008 at 4:01 PM

I know, I know, A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage, and all that. It is just frustrating to see it in our party again.

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 4:14 PM

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Our problems in MI are not the fault of the Federal Government, but the State Government. The voters of Michigan need to fix this.

It’s been less than 5 years and I am blown away!

Pam on January 15, 2008 at 4:17 PM

I think Bob Dole would be up for it.

MB4 on January 15, 2008 at 1:44 PM

Bob Dole says thank you. Bob Dole approves this message.

PowWow on January 15, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 3:47 PM

What do you call the BS you put out? It’s spin, dude.

If you think that that photo is, say, the same as plant at a debate, you are spinning to the stratosphere.

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 4:56 PM

If you think that that photo is, say, the same as plant at a debate, you are spinning to the stratosphere.

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 4:56 PM

Same as a plant at a debate? No. Same as a plant at a campaign appearance or press conference? Yes.

One of Romney’s problems with voters is a belief that he’s inauthentic. Holding a media photo-op using the mother of paid campaign staffer without identifying her as such doesn’t do much to dispel that impression.

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 5:08 PM

Sadly I live in Michigan.

Sadder still I know 1 Republican and to Democrats that voted for McCain, while I voted for Romney.

I project using my sample… Romney 25%, McCain 75% with a margin of error of about 40%.

Sad day for conservatism.

Micheal on January 15, 2008 at 5:28 PM

Romney by three over McCain. Huck’s support stronger than expected. Fredmentum propels him ahead of write-in drive for Arlen Specter…or is it Phil Spector? It is Motown, after all.

“Uncommitted” outpolls Hillary.

my medication wears off, and I deny ever writing this.

sulla on January 15, 2008 at 5:40 PM

Romney by 5, then the race begins again

KBird on January 15, 2008 at 5:57 PM

Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 5:08 PM

The commenters at Politico don’t care about this non-story. Every “scandal” about Mitt has been a big fat nothing.

Keep on truckin’!

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 6:34 PM

I agree KBird. I think Romney will win it and the front-runner musical chairs game will continue. Im an ardent Romney supporter but Im still concerned with his ability to connect with the commoner-working class of the party. A 5 point Romney win re-shuffles the deck and we begin again. If he then wins Nevada, I think we got a new front runner.

The Hayekian on January 15, 2008 at 6:37 PM

One of Romney’s problems with voters is a belief that he’s inauthentic.
Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 5:08 PM

Ain’t that the truth. That guy is totally plastic banana good time rock ‘n roll.

But…I’m rooting for him today to derail McCain.

Go for the Gold!

Dorvillian on January 15, 2008 at 6:41 PM

Please, someone make Romney stop with the silver and gold nonsense. Please, for the love of all that’s holy, stop it. Vote Sauron 08 on January 15, 2008 at 12:57 PM

If he wins the gold, will they test him for steriods? right2bright on January 15, 2008 at 2:47 PM

I’m so confused. I thought they were going for a brass ring?

…Blue ribbon?

Mojave Mark on January 15, 2008 at 6:57 PM

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