Early exit polls: Romney leading? Update: Mitt 35, McCain 29? Update: McCain leaves Michigan
posted at 6:00 pm on January 15, 2008 by Allahpundit
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We all know the lessons of 2004 so discount accordingly, but a site called Huliq says an AP poll shows Mitt out in front. Credible? Judging by the AP’s partisan breakdown, yeah: Democratic/independent turnout is lower than it was eight years ago when McCain won, boding ill for Maverick and well for a Romney comeback.
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Hold your breath.
Update: A six-point win? Sweet if true.
Update: InTrade’s reporting a 30-point swing today in Romney’s favor. Someone knows something.
Update: The writing’s on the wall.
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Also promising to somehow as President revive the auto industry in one state, a state that had much to do with ruining that industry, does not exactly fit with any mold of “free market economics” that Rush so loves to pretent to advocate. But that doesn’t matter to Rush as long as one of his country club members gets in office.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:18 PM
Double ditto. And Hunter for VP, SecDef, or DHS.
We may have a real horserace, while Dems. have only a single silky pony. (sorry, I’m tired)
We have to weed out the shamnesty folks ASAP.
fred5678 on January 15, 2008 at 7:18 PM
That is way harsh.
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 7:18 PM
We have to weed out the shamnesty folks ASAP.
fred5678 on January 15, 2008 at 7:18 PM
Amen, fred5678, Amen.
AZCoyote on January 15, 2008 at 7:21 PM
On second thought, we do need volunteers for the first men on Mars.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 7:21 PM
Crap – I don’t think I take all this happiness and suspense in one night.
(The happiness portion is coming from assembling my new Q9450 beast computer, with dual 8800 GT 512MB, 8GB, hardware RAID, etc.. but could come from Mitt – you never know ;)
SkinnerVic on January 15, 2008 at 7:22 PM
What I heard him promise was to work for MI until they get back on their feet. He proposed re-directing the current federal money to R&D and other areas. He believes he can bring the jobs back to MI by making it the center of new technologies.
I don’t see any outrageous promises. If he promised to work hard, he certainly can do that.
If I missed something please give me a quote to a specific promise.
csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 7:22 PM
You still haven’t answered the question. What specifically did Mitt promise?
btw, I knew I was right when I lumped you in with r2b and the class envy-o-holics the other day.
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 7:22 PM
I would blame UNIONS for the demise of the American auto industry.
SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 7:22 PM
Read:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YTA5MmVmZmE5ODhhMjVkM2YyYjYzYmY0NjZhOThiYmM=&w=MA==
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:24 PM
Funny, Romney didn’t.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:24 PM
BuyDanish, don’t waste your time. That clown isn’t for anything; he’s just against whatever comment got posted last.
Jaibones on January 15, 2008 at 7:25 PM
I would blame the Unions, taxes, lack of domestic energy supply, and Al Gore, in that order.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Bingo on the unions, guys. The American auto industry is doing great. Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Mercedes, etc., are all building wonderful cars here that people like and buy in great numbers.
GM, Ford, Chrysler…not so much.
Jaibones on January 15, 2008 at 7:27 PM
That’s nice. Practices what he preaches.
Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Romney didn’t blame the Unions because he has to work with them.
Once he is in a position to make a difference, he’ll point out the problems without alienating anybody.
He’s a politician who has to be on the good side of as many people as possible without sacrificing his core values.
You can start throwing stones now.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 7:29 PM
To revive the auto industry in MI
And your right, I don’t relate to multi-millionaire CEOs telling me they are looking out for me as I see my friends getting laid off by the very same multi-millionaires and their jobs being outsourced to India, and knowing it is just a matter of time before the hatchet comes down on my head. If you love those people, as Rush does, fine, but I don’t and I don’t call it Reagen economics to idolize them and follow them to the ends of the earth. Romney is just one more person who will say anything and promise anything to get elected and once in office he will take care of his country club friends as he always has. Rush doesn’t seem to care, too bad, I do. For me it’s personal you see.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Michigan 1/15 – 30 delegates
South carolina 1/19 – 24 delegates
Nevada 1/19 – 34 delegates
Why not much news/talk/speculation on Nevada?????
fred5678 on January 15, 2008 at 7:29 PM
GO MITT!!!
Eclectic on January 15, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Which core values? starting on which date? Before or after he flip-flopped?
Anyway, this is Mitt’s night, I will stop raining on his parade, you guys deserve that much.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:31 PM
I didn’t see any promises in that article that Mitt cannot accomplish.
Perhaps if you would point to the exact promise I can understand where you are coming from.
csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 7:31 PM
Well, I guess if Mitt wins in MI he can spend another 15 million dollars of his personal money on SC and FL.
Great to know that we have our own George Soros.
georgealbert on January 15, 2008 at 7:32 PM
Don’t forget the VAT, which is exempted from WTO agreements and is used by 137 countries, to our trade disadvanatge. Only Hunter is talking much about this, sorry to say.
The sad story.
fred5678 on January 15, 2008 at 7:33 PM
Why don’t you vote for the Dems?
Don’t you understand that Romney is the guy who is best able to deal with the competition from Asia?
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 7:33 PM
What – Jeff Daniels isn’t doing the trick?
Editor on January 15, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Gotta love the free market. Here’s a conservative solution…work harder or go back to school.
davenp35 on January 15, 2008 at 7:34 PM
No matter how much of this personal inheritiance he spends, you cannot buy the presidency. If Mitt gets the nomination we will have Hillary or Obama as the next pres. I hope that makes y’all happy because it will be a disaster for the other 300 million of us
georgealbert on January 15, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Well, it’s quite obvious what/who he’s against. He’s the same guy who relentlessly wrote countless anti-mormon posts in the past months–sometimes literally 20+ anti posts in one thread–abruptly stopping with Mitt’s “Faith in America” speech. Maybe he, right2bright, et. al. would like us to forget what they’ve said and the real reason they don’t like Romney, but I haven’t.
Patriot33 on January 15, 2008 at 7:35 PM
Someone’s gotta do it.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 7:35 PM
I own two German cars, and one Japanese…all vintage.
Every American car I’ve had has been a real P.O.S. – even brand new ones. I swore I would never buy another one.
That being said, the cars coming out of Detroit are looking good these days. I would be tempted to try again next time around. The weak dollar will probably make lots of people look twice at American made cars.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot, glad to hear Romney’s having a good night.
Dorvillian on January 15, 2008 at 7:35 PM
LOL! Right. As he outsources to Asia, that will work! Anyway, I promised to keep quiet, not rile me.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:36 PM
I’ve never owned a foreign car, never will.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:36 PM
I’d blame you for not making sure all of us were enlightened enough to see it your way.
csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 7:37 PM
His plan is to make the United States government a virtual partner of Ford, GM, and Chrysler. “If I’m president of this country, I will roll up my sleeves in the first 100 days I’m in office, and I will personally bring together industry, labor, Congressional and state leaders and together we will develop a plan to rebuild America’s automotive leadership,” Romney tells the Economic Club. “It will be a plan that works for Michigan and that works for the American taxpayer.”
The plan would involve easier-to-reach mileage standards, increased funding and extended tax breaks for research and development, worker health care reforms, and more. “Detroit can only thrive if Washington is an engaged partner, not a disinterested observer,” Romney says. “I am not open to a bail out, but I am open to a work out. Washington should not be a benefactor, but it can and must be a partner.”
Horrors! It’s collectivism!
/sarc
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 7:37 PM
Ah. So you simply extracting his commitment to restoring the auto industry out to saying, in essence, that he is pandering (and lying) about it. Why didn’t you say that in the first place, ie that you don’t think he can restore the auto industry? I don’t see why you would offer your opinion as fact unless it was to create a false impression.
Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 7:37 PM
Ditto.
davenp35 on January 15, 2008 at 7:37 PM
It’s going to be anybody but Hillary, remember?
Especially with this racial war started by the Clintons, it’s going to piss off the blacks and moderate dems to no end.
And they too will vote for anybody but Hillary, as long as the repub nominee is not Huck or McCain.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 7:38 PM
McCain Leaving Michigan [Henry Payne]
Some speculative mining here and repeating some of what had been said, but local Detroit news channels are reporting that McCain is wheels up – he has left Michigan for South Carolina. Romney, meanwhile, is at the Embassy Suites Southfield outside Detroit where his supporters have gathered for a primary party. Some pretty strong tea leaves there.
A Romney campaign insider says they are getting exit poll numbers showing Romney up by six.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWNmZGFmZmRiZjA1M2I4MmJhNDM1YzhmN2E5MjMzYTE=
McCain had planned on leaving Mich tonight and watching the results come in in SC (read it 2 days ago), so this isn’t unexpected.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:39 PM
If Fred or Mitt win, I’ll definitely vote for either one of them. If Huck or McCain win, I’ll probably write in a Republican when I vote…
golfer1 on January 15, 2008 at 7:39 PM
Aha. That tells me all I need to know about the motivation for his “concerns” for the country.
csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 7:39 PM
You have not gotten a single fact correct today. Not one.
Going for some kind of record?
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Probably, but I get the feeling that if the numbers were really going his way, he’d be changing plans to stay and bask in the glow of it. I wonder if his internals have told him he was going to lose all along.
thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 7:42 PM
That has been one of Romney’s greatest talking point and maybe Fred’s (Since I’m having a good day, I don’t want to pick a fight with the Fredhead’s).
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 7:44 PM
Hate to see McCain flying out. I was so looking forward to his enraged concession speech. Perhaps he’ll say a few words in SC. Couple of drinks on the flight to remove inhibitions and it might be a fun speech.
a capella on January 15, 2008 at 7:45 PM
Aha. That tells me all I need to know about the motivation for his “concerns” for the country.
csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 7:39 PM
When I wrote those posts I was pointing out why Mitt was not a good general election candidate. That still holds. I don’t abide by people saying you can’t have a Mormon president, I just believe it is an election killer. Many Evangelicals won’t vote for a Mormon, many blacks won’t vote for a Mormon and many liberals and gays won’t vote for a Mormon. Even if he gets in office his religion would be a cause for division in the country. You can pretend that isn’t reality, but it is. That is one of the reasons why Mitt is a very weak general election candidate. When you add his flip-flopping to win elections, he is a dream candidate for the Democrats to go against.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:46 PM
Any combination of Romney/Thompson would make me happy this fall. I love the North/South combination, as well as the details/principles aspect of such a tandem.
Bonus points for the cognitive dissonance it would cause with csdeven.
Dudley Smith on January 15, 2008 at 7:46 PM
I disagree. He’d want to get favorable coverage from local news stations in South Carolina in the event of a win. Once Michigan’s over, there’s no reason to stay to celebrate. Love ‘em and leave ‘em; that’s politics.
Big S on January 15, 2008 at 7:46 PM
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 7:47 PM
Of course you do, because you love McAmnesty and you love illegal aliens and you spin for him as much as Hugh Hewitt spins for Mitt.
He lacks the graciousness to give a dignified concession speech.
thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 7:48 PM
Get you liberal ASS out of Michigan McVain….. MICHIGAN IS ROMNEY COUNTRY!!!
YEEEEEEESSSS!!!!!
THE RETURN OF AMERICA HAS BEGUN!!!
Roger Waters on January 15, 2008 at 7:49 PM
NOW does Fred’s strategy of not slamming Maverick too much make sense? Who’s the stalking horse for whom, Mr. Rollins?
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 7:49 PM
He might surprise you on that.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:49 PM
If Romney wins tonight, the real winner is: Rudy!!!
froghat on January 15, 2008 at 7:50 PM
I regret nothing, except responding.
CABE on January 15, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Maybe. Especially if he can do something about FL
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Or, he might not.
Besides, we remember what he did after his defeat in 2000 – he spent the next 7 years stabbing the GOP in the back on numerous big issues, as his revenge for his rejection. I can only imagine what he’s going to do this time, especially now that he’s drinking the global warming koolaid.
thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 7:52 PM
I think Fred has the right strategy now. I just hope it isn’t as late as I really think it is.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:52 PM
And the real winner is Fred: welcome home McCain supporters in SC, welcome home!
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Which is a good arguement not to have him as a president.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Does Mitt pander? Yes. But at least he is pandering to conservatives. McCain panders just as much, only his pandering is directed at MSM and the independents. Huck panders to the big government theocrats. I’m glad to see Mitt doing well tonight. Mitt, Fred and Rudy are all acceptable candidates to me and none of them have demonstrated the sheer disdain that McCain and Huck have toward conservatives.
phronesis on January 15, 2008 at 7:54 PM
bnelson44, I read some newspaper interview with his campaign manager and he said Rudy is gonna start taking the gloves off soon. Hope that’s true… Rudy’s been way too Mr. Nice Guy to win.
froghat on January 15, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Fred needs to prove that in SC, and he has only 3 days of campaigning left.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Well it won’t take TOO long for Juan’s supporters to figure out who’s bandwagon to climb onto.
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 7:54 PM
McCain’s not my guy. Anyway, If I were running, I’d be sure to swipe some free coverage in S.C. if it were available. If he wins, he’s all over S.C. TV (not the comedy show) tonight. If he loses, he’ll give a speech in S.C. heavy on the military/”never surrender” theme, while Mitt is still playing around in Michigan talking about the Olympics. It pays to be ahead of the pack either way.
Big S on January 15, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Strikes me as just about right, maybe a little lenient.
MB4 on January 15, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Fred proved himself in the debate. He is kicking butt on the campaign trail.
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 7:56 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:58 PM
We don’t need no water, let the RINOs burn, RINOs burn…
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 7:58 PM
One of my concerns about Fred was whether he had the punch in him to handle the wot. His spark in the last weeks, especially the debate, have really helped to quiet those concerns.
Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 7:59 PM
well, the Fox crew is saying that, according to the exit data (whatever that is worth) the economy was the biggest issue, and that is swinging it decisively in Mitt’s favor.
Weight of Glory on January 15, 2008 at 8:00 PM
That’s nice spin, but you weren’t saying that at the time–you were just regurgitating Ed Decker type anti-mormon rhetoric, and letting it stand alone. But yes, it is true that there are a number of people who won’t vote for a mormon, and is the main reason why I don’t think he’s going to get the nomination. But the blacks/liberals/gays vote you cite wouldn’t be voting Republican anyway (though the fact that Romney was elected governor in Mass disproves that idea, and also proves the left is far more religiously tolerant than the right), but his largest obstacle is the evangelicals, which I think if he overcomes in the nomination process can definitely be overcome in the general with only a fraction of them voting against him/staying home on that basis. As a general election candidate he would keep the conservative coalition in tact and imo would have a better chance at winning than the two RINOs, and arguably our best chance.
Patriot33 on January 15, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Up 7 points between the last two polls, and now he will get some of Juan’s friends…who are VERY mad at Romney who has just kicked Juan’s butt, and who will definitely not go to the Christian leader.
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:00 PM
Let the RINOs hit the floor, Let the RINOs hit the floor!
TheSitRep on January 15, 2008 at 8:02 PM
You know what got me into Fred’s camp way back in early April? It was strangely enough reading how he destroyed the legacy of Mahatma Ghandi and his pacifist teachings as not appropriate against barbarians. Fred is THE ONLY ONE who truly understands the WOT.
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:03 PM
I think they are about to become endangered as endangered as the African black rhino.
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:06 PM
I’ve been posting in the wrong thread! Sorry!
I would love to see a 8 point + win!!
SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Why exactly? Many of them are built in the US now… Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, BMW. The problem for Detroit is that they’re built in south because the plants there haven’t been unionized. They’re “right to work” states. I noticed that issue didn’t come up on the campaign trail.
Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:07 PM
How come there hasn’t been anything on here about Mitt using a plant for a photo-op?
Paid staffer’s mom used as plant
SnarkVader on January 15, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Some of the data coming into Fox show that 25% of those who voted in the republican. primary were independents, and of that 25% McCain got thirty four percent and Mitt got 24 percent. That’s interesting to me for two reasons. One, that’s a pretty low turnout of independents, which could mean that most independents are fired up for Obama, and since he wasn’t on the ballot, they just decided to stay home and have a hot cup of cocoa. Also, Mitt was only 10% less than McCain of those independents that did come out to vote. So if McCain isn’t able to get the independent vote all fired up for his campaign, and if a sizable portion of the independents that do show up favor other candidates, then how electable is McCain, really?
Weight of Glory on January 15, 2008 at 8:07 PM
Mittalanche©
CABE on January 15, 2008 at 8:08 PM
You may be right, we will have to see. FEAR THE GAY LOBBY though. They are a lot stronger than they appear. And if he goes against a black man? What then?
I think most Republicans will stick around just about any of the men running right now except Ron Paul. There will be certain extremists for one cause or another that will peal off no matter who is nominated. That is not that unusual.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:08 PM
As everybody knows, Romney will do and say anything to get elected. I don’t think he can surprise people by his tricks any more.
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Depends on the state I think.
I hate open primaries!
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:10 PM
Etu Brute?
When I see someone driving a foriegn car it pizzes me off.
Traitors!
TheSitRep on January 15, 2008 at 8:10 PM
Then why did he hire Islamic extremist Spencer Abraham as his campaign adviser?
Ooooh excuse me! I’m sorry!
Please forgive me! “I having a good day, so.. so please, please.. I didn’t want to pick a fight with you!
Sorry!
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 8:10 PM
He and Huck definately are competing on that score.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:11 PM
By the way… have we started taking odds on when the nutroots will declare the results are invalid because of their crossover campaign?
If not, I want — polls close at 8:00, right? — I want 8:01.
Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:11 PM
Thank God, I just heard the news. I can breathe again…………for now.
Geronimo on January 15, 2008 at 8:12 PM
MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT OF MARS!
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 8:12 PM
That’s OK. I’m no fan of Spence, but he a Lebanese Christian, so let’s just tell the truth, ha? And why did Fred hire Allen who was defeated by the Muslim vote in Virginia?
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:12 PM
Dude! Is this for real?
wccawa on January 15, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Maybe we can send McCain and Huckabee into space until this whole thing is over.
Rudy too, what the hell.
Geronimo on January 15, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Yeah. I’ve never really had doubts as to his understanding, but about his vigor. What concerns me was his that early on he was giving Huck-like answers about letting the men there decide, etc and whether he’d fight Congress over what he thought right.
Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 8:13 PM
As I explained above… I don’t get this line of thought. Many US carmakers have moved production overseas while many foreign car companies have built factories here. BMW has one in S.C. Hyundai has one in Alabama. So are you concerned with jobs, or the strenght of the brand image of the American carmakers? (I’m asking sincerely).
Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:14 PM
Willard is a sleazy businessman who does understand business, Huck is a sleazy provincial Democrat who only understands how to pander. Willard at least has some management skills, and Huck plays the bass guitar. So all in all Willard is better, but why not choose Fred?
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:15 PM
I know how the man thinks, I’m convinced he is OK.
Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:17 PM
By the way, this may well turn into a delegate count race after tonight.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:17 PM
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