Early exit polls: Romney leading? Update: Mitt 35, McCain 29? Update: McCain leaves Michigan
posted at 6:00 pm on January 15, 2008 by Allahpundit
We all know the lessons of 2004 so discount accordingly, but a site called Huliq says an AP poll shows Mitt out in front. Credible? Judging by the AP’s partisan breakdown, yeah: Democratic/independent turnout is lower than it was eight years ago when McCain won, boding ill for Maverick and well for a Romney comeback.
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Hold your breath.
Update: A six-point win? Sweet if true.
Update: InTrade’s reporting a 30-point swing today in Romney’s favor. Someone knows something.
Update: The writing’s on the wall.
Blowback
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Let’s hope Mitt pulls it out.
phronesis on January 15, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Finally, hope it lasts. McCain has no business giving such a showing and the huckster is just a shuckster.
Les in NC on January 15, 2008 at 6:03 PM
Do we dare trust Politico tonight?
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Good, I`ll be able to cut down on my carbon emissions. :)
Go Mitt!
ThePrez on January 15, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Yea, and anyway, Mitt paid for it ;-)
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Crossing my fingers for Mitt … and a Fred win in SC. If the race could come down to Mitt and Fred, I’d be happy. Like Fred better, but would vote for Mitt over any dem without hesitation – which I can’t say for McVain or Huck.
thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Good news for those of us who want Juan McCain to just go away! I’ve been hoping for something to take away some of his momentum before the SC primary.
jwp1964 on January 15, 2008 at 6:07 PM
Some parts of the Upper Peninsula are in the Central Time Zone, if I recall correctly. We may not hear exit polls or results until 9 pm ET.
Big S on January 15, 2008 at 6:07 PM
I predict Hillary will win big in Michigan
William Amos on January 15, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Fox News is talking about the internals of the exit polls at this very second. They have independents at only 25% of the vote and Reps at 68%. They also have Romney way way way up among republicans and pretty far down with independents.
Also
Polls stay open an extra hour for a few counties in the western UP because they are on central time. I predict everyone will release their results at 8 anyway, though.
Nessuno on January 15, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Holding my breath?
I’m breathing easy.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Dude
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080115/ap_on_re_us/baby_boomlet
William Amos on January 15, 2008 at 6:11 PM
Democratic/independent turnout is lower than it was eight years ago when McCain won, boding ill for Maverick and well for a Romney comeback.
So does this mean it’s safe to call off the Hugh Hewitt 24 hour suicide watch?
billy on January 15, 2008 at 6:12 PM
I just want the wind out of Huck’s sails. McCain even leaves less of a foul taste than that charlatan.
bbz123 on January 15, 2008 at 6:13 PM
With a Saddam-like percentage! Now that’s a mandate!
/sarc
innominatus on January 15, 2008 at 6:13 PM
And if the internals are correct they may call the race early and we will have an early night.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Again with the funny screencaps. What the heck is that woman doing? Mitt sure finds it funny.
Resolute on January 15, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Keeping fingers crossed for Mitt.
But, primary night is already a winner…
Fox news had Laura Ingraham on for a whole hour, and Megyn kelly looked foxy as all heck right at the beginning of Brit’s show.
yeah, I got my priorities straight, you betcha.
Always Right on January 15, 2008 at 6:15 PM
Goodbye McMentum?
snickelfritz on January 15, 2008 at 6:15 PM
If Mitt does really well in Mich, Fred may have a chance in SC since it would probably drive everyone else’s numbers down there. But then I may be dreaming here.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:17 PM
Oh great Mitt with a “Change” sign I swear that is enough to make me dislike him
William Amos on January 15, 2008 at 6:18 PM
I’m excited about tonight. While the Dumbs fight over who is the most “black” and who love Dr. King more, the GOP is talking about real issues… issues that matter to America.
I’m with Mitt!
madmonkphotog on January 15, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Nah … I’m sure Hugh already has his logic worked out for how a McVain victory benefitted Mitt Romney and is ready go with that if it happens.
thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Dosen’t Michigan have a large Muslim pop?
I am wondering where they will vote, Dem or Repub.
The ones that vote Repub, who the trend is to. That would be interesting to know, for me atleast.
jharada on January 15, 2008 at 6:23 PM
Go Mitt!
OKCubsFan on January 15, 2008 at 6:24 PM
A defeat of Huckabee and McCain anywhere is a clear win for Americans everywhere. Go Mitt!
davenp35 on January 15, 2008 at 6:24 PM
I just read an Al Jazeera Article on American Muslims. They are now democrats and support Obama who they say is the one ready to stand against Islamophobia
William Amos on January 15, 2008 at 6:27 PM
As native Michigander Romney, son of a popular former governor and chief executive of a big car company, said yesterday, having pledged big programs to save all the jobs: “Michigan is in my DNA. Cars are in my blood.”
http://pajamasmedia.com/2008/01/michigan_bradley.php
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:27 PM
But can you trust polls?
Wait and see!
Entelechy on January 15, 2008 at 6:28 PM
As a Fredhead even I’m hoping Mitt shuts down McCain and Huckabee in Michigan. And yeah, change in Michigan would be lower taxes and economic growth. The tax and spend DEMs have darn near killed the state for decades, it is time for a big change there. If the people there would actually think for a CHANGE they would realize that the status quo there is socialism.
Buzzy on January 15, 2008 at 6:29 PM
And The First Exit Polls in Michigan Say…
I’m surprised no one else has put this up yet. I’m hearing the first round of exit polls have Romney 35, McCain 29, Huckabee 15, Ron Paul 10, Giuliani 4. This doesn’t count absentee ballots.
If this holds, the networks will be able to announce shortly after 9 p.m. eastern time…
Of course, all the standard disclaimers apply, and the later voters may differ from the early rounds, and the polls are still open, so if you’re a Michigander, go out and vote for your favorite.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTRhZDU2MDNhZDcxNWY3NDBmYTIwYjYzMTBlMTczY2U=
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Here is the Jazeera article on American Muslims
William Amos on January 15, 2008 at 6:31 PM
Go Mitt Go! Kill the McCain mo!
SimplyKimberly on January 15, 2008 at 6:31 PM
NRO’s GERAGHTY:
And The First Exit Polls in Michigan Say…
I’m surprised no one else has put this up yet. I’m hearing the first round of exit polls have Romney 35, McCain 29, Huckabee 15, Ron Paul 10, Giuliani 4. This doesn’t count absentee ballots.
If this holds, the networks will be able to announce shortly after 9 p.m. eastern time…
Of course, all the standard disclaimers apply, and the later voters may differ from the early rounds, and the polls are still open, so if you’re a Michigander, go out and vote for your favorite.
01/15 06:18 PM
reliapundit on January 15, 2008 at 6:31 PM
If Romney and Thompson would start dropping hints that they will be on the ticket together, all other candidates would be toast.
EJDolbow on January 15, 2008 at 6:33 PM
Why no Fred results from Geraghty’s poll?
cameron on January 15, 2008 at 6:33 PM
I lol’ed
Nessuno on January 15, 2008 at 6:35 PM
Fred didn’t campaign in Mich. His number is probably in the single digit.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:35 PM
yikes.
jharada on January 15, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Now THAT is a winning ticket
KBird on January 15, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Fred, Mitt, or Rudy are my candidates of choice, in that preferential order. McCain and Huckabee would be disastrous for the Republican party for many reasons. Hopefully, conservatives will play a greater role in the primaries coming up. Republicans should decide their candidate for president, not Democrats and Independents. Conservatism wins elections and governs best.
liberty on January 15, 2008 at 6:41 PM
I second that with the slight change for me of putting Mitt ahead of Fred.
davenp35 on January 15, 2008 at 6:42 PM
I think the bigger story is Ron Paul at 10%. That’s gonna energize his supporters for certain.
Michael in MI on January 15, 2008 at 6:43 PM
That’s a big DITTO, bro.
omnipotent on January 15, 2008 at 6:45 PM
I predict if Romney wins, the dinosaur media will say he bought it and didn’t “really” win it.
SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Also, keep in mind that we still have not had a Republican Primary. Iowa and New Hampshire are moderates and Independents and Michigan is a Democrat state. So, we still have not had a result from a conservative Republican state. South Carolina will be the first Primary which tells us anything about where the conservative base is at right now.
Michael in MI on January 15, 2008 at 6:46 PM
EXIT POLLS SHOW:
Romney 34, McCain 29, Huckabee 16… Voting Stops at 8 PM… Developing…
Sweet.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 6:47 PM
I am whispering :woo hoo: very quietly until 8 PM.
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Depends on what “win” means now a days. He promised the moon to those in Mich. Stuff he can never deliver on, but oh, well, he is an old time politician using the old time play book. If this is what you guys like around here and call “true Regan conservatism” so be it. But you should know what you are voting for here: read about the Lincoln-Douglas Senate race and about how Hoover got into office.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:50 PM
The power of Kos!
justkevin on January 15, 2008 at 6:51 PM
I can’t recall… is Mitt winning the scenario that’s supposed to do Fred the most good? Or is it McCain?
Mark V. on January 15, 2008 at 6:52 PM
Why is the victory of a blow-dried flip-flopping pretty boy a good thing?
packsoldier on January 15, 2008 at 6:52 PM
Hopefully this will drive a wooden stake right though Count Vladimir McVain’s dried up mal corazon.
MB4 on January 15, 2008 at 6:53 PM
Describe the “moon” for us, okay?
Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Exactly. The media will spin this anti-Mitt and pro-McCain and pro-Huckabee, because they know Huckabee and McCain are the best possible candidates for the Democrats. Each of them are win-wins, because they would be the easiest to defeat in the general, since the Republican base can’t stand either of them, so voter turnout would be low. And at the small chance that either of them would win, then the Democrats still win by having liberal, socialist Republicans in office who have favored populism and Democrats over conservatism and Republicans in their recent history.
So watch the media spin.
Also, another thing to keep in mind. Turnout was low here. I still don’t see how we nominate our candidate based on 10-20% turnout in Primary states. And I don’t see how people say “this means that Republicans/conservativs want X” based on what a very small percentage of voters in each state does. If 20% of the country says that they believe in aliens, we don’t automatically say all Americans believe in aliens, we say 20% do. So when 20% of Republicans in one State in the nation support Huckabee or another 20% of Republicans in another State support McCain, how does that translate to “Republicans now support populism/McCain/Huckabee”?
It does not state that at all. When 20% of Republicans show up to vote and 35% of them vote for Romney, that means that 35% of 20% support Romney. It does not mean “Michigan Republicans support Romney”. Yet this is the kind of political analysis I keep reading all over. Why?
Example:
20% of 100,000 = 20,000
35% of 20,000 = 7,000
When 7,000 Republicans out of 100,000 vote for X, then we say “Michigan Republicans support X”? I just do not understand this ‘logic’.
Michael in MI on January 15, 2008 at 6:55 PM
If Mitt wins it helps Fred.
Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 6:55 PM
Burn in hell McCain. You too Huck.
CABE on January 15, 2008 at 6:56 PM
A 6 point win for Mitt won’t affect McCain too much. It may slow down his gain in SC we have to see. It will change the politcal spin to “an open race” again which should help Fred. It will hurt Huck because Huck will come in 3rd, which will be good for Fred. Again, Fred is really aiming for a 2nd place finish in SC (and again, I have no idea what he plans after that).
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:56 PM
Because it’s infinitely preferable to a victory by an amnesty-loving, tax-cut hating, global-warming believing, temper-tantrum having backstabber.
Man I hope this holds up.
thirteen28 on January 15, 2008 at 6:56 PM
Yipes!
Paulistinians is scary when they’s energized.
sulla on January 15, 2008 at 6:56 PM
What would that ‘stuff’ be?
Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 6:56 PM
Uh, calm down.
Doesn’t anyone remember that all the “exit polls” showed Obama winning by a landslide in New Hampshire until after they started actually counting the real numbers?
Gregor on January 15, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Romney/Thompson. That’s the ticket. As we get into more states that actually have true conservatives, and primaries that are closed to independents..the McCains and Huckabees of the world will fade into the RINO background that they so deserve. Hopefully Romney and Thompson are still around to reap the benefits.
therightwinger on January 15, 2008 at 6:57 PM
which is why they need to go ahead and expose the crackpot, which could so easily be done and the media is giving him a pass
jp on January 15, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Check out AP’s intrade link, everyone is dumping mcvain and mullahbee and buying Fred and Mitt in S.C.
ChrisM on January 15, 2008 at 6:59 PM
I should explain why a 6 point gain won’t affect McCain that much. It is because it will be spun as Mitt being a favorite son of Mich (which he kinda is). Mich was a “must win” for Mitt for if he couldn’t win there it would have been spun as him not able to win anywhere (he could have stayed in the race though because he is rich). But a loss for McCain, unless it is really devastating, probably won’t affect SC much. SC and FL will become the pivotal states, especially now that Mitt is campaigning there again. But we may be going into Super Duper Tuesday without a front runner, which would be ideal for Rudy and exactly what he planned from the beginning.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 6:59 PM
Ahh… Can’t we make it Thompson/Romney?
Romney would also be a phenomenal chief of staff.
Mojave Mark on January 15, 2008 at 6:59 PM
Which is why you should never gamble.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:00 PM
I’m in the Thompson camp, and don’t care if Romney or McCain wins in Michigan. Not even a little. That said, I thought McCain would win in a close race; looks like the low turnout turned it in Romney’s favor.
Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 7:00 PM
6 points isn’t exactly a blow out.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Low turnout- the Rontards would claw through 10 feet of snow that fell on broken glass to vote for their cult leader. Double the turnout, and he’d probably only be at 5%.
Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 7:02 PM
38 point gain according to intrade now….. 78/22 in favor of teh Mitt
Ludwig on January 15, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Rudy is really looking dumb at this point
jp on January 15, 2008 at 7:03 PM
Except poker…I likes me some poker…but that’s not really gambling.
ChrisM on January 15, 2008 at 7:03 PM
As for Ron Paul, Michigan has a really scary conservative community. They seem like a perfect fit for our nutty professor.
But what the heck, Rudy at 4% and no Fred anywhere on the radar?!
Jaibones on January 15, 2008 at 7:03 PM
Here is the Jazeera article on American Muslims
William Amos on January 15, 2008 at 6:31 PM
But that article says there are 3.5 million Arab-Americans in the USA. Didn’t CAIR say that there are something like 10 million? Just askin’.
FishFearMe on January 15, 2008 at 7:03 PM
No, but I figured it would be within 2 points.
I blame McCain for drinking the algore kool-aid, the result of which was snow- because of course God hates the Goracle.
Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 7:04 PM
If true, this is still a four-way race. Although Giuliani isn’t looking long for this world. I really think his Florida strategy is going to fail, and if it does, he’s toast. His staffers are working without pay and he’s only going to sink more in the polls after finishing at the bottom yet again.
Mark Jaquith on January 15, 2008 at 7:04 PM
LOL!
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:04 PM
De mes reves, c’est le commencement.
Et j’espere une fin heureuse.
Percy on January 15, 2008 at 7:05 PM
I’ll remember that the next time my pocket aces get busted by 7,8 suited like the last time I played.
Hollowpoint on January 15, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Here’s a Pew Study:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/483/muslim-americans
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Rockets are only good for one thing, and that is trying to scare the crap out of everyone before the flop.
I’ve lost more hands with those things than I can remember.
ChrisM on January 15, 2008 at 7:09 PM
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Thanks for that info. I CANNOT believe that CAIR would tell a lie like that!
/sarc
FishFearMe on January 15, 2008 at 7:09 PM
Romney beats McCain in Michigan?? How would Michael Medved spin that one???
The Hayekian on January 15, 2008 at 7:11 PM
What exactly did Mitt promise that he cannot deliver?
csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 7:11 PM
88/20 teh Mitt/McCain
Ludwig on January 15, 2008 at 7:12 PM
That’s at least the 3rd time you’ve been asked, bnelson, please answer the question.
Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Allahpundit-
I’m pretty sure that info being used by Huliq and NRO is from yesterday..
I hope it is accurate, but I haven’t seen anything to back it up…
Pam on January 15, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Hallelujah! I’ve been disgrunted all week with this stuff, but (hopefully) good to see atleast one state hasn’t lost their damn minds…we got a race, boys and girls! Down with the RINOs Huckster and McVain!
Patriot33 on January 15, 2008 at 7:14 PM
With Teflon on one heel.
Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 7:14 PM
I am not at all comfortable with any predictions.
If Mitt wins, then great. If he takes another silver then he’ll continue on. Very much weakened, but he will continue.
csdeven on January 15, 2008 at 7:15 PM
Now, cars are at the center of Romney’s attempt to win the Michigan primary. His proposal to revive the auto industry forms the backbone of his plan to revive the Michigan economy. And that, in turn, forms the backbone of his plan to revive the Romney presidential candidacy. After losses in Iowa and New Hampshire — the states on which he built his early-victory strategy — Romney is trying desperately to grab a win in Michigan. If he does, he’ll be back up there with winners John McCain and Mike Huckabee. If he doesn’t, he’ll have yet another loss heading in to the important South Carolina primary on Saturday, where he’s expected to finish third. Even people sympathetic to Romney believe it would be hard for him to come back from that.
His proposal to revive the auto industry in Mich. Now that might not be humanly possible, but it seems to have bought him a lot of votes.
bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 7:15 PM
Polls haven’t closed yet. It’s way too early to call based on a single, somewhat mysterious exit poll. Romney may win, but so may McCain.
Big S on January 15, 2008 at 7:17 PM
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