Early exit polls: Romney leading? Update: Mitt 35, McCain 29? Update: McCain leaves Michigan

posted at 6:00 pm on January 15, 2008 by Allahpundit

We all know the lessons of 2004 so discount accordingly, but a site called Huliq says an AP poll shows Mitt out in front. Credible? Judging by the AP’s partisan breakdown, yeah: Democratic/independent turnout is lower than it was eight years ago when McCain won, boding ill for Maverick and well for a Romney comeback.

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Hold your breath.

Update: A six-point win? Sweet if true.

Update: InTrade’s reporting a 30-point swing today in Romney’s favor. Someone knows something.

Update: The writing’s on the wall.


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Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:17 PM

I’d give particular credibility if I hadn’t read your 8:09.

Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 8:19 PM

By the way, this may well turn into a delegate count race after tonight.

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:17 PM

Well how wold that happen? Willard is WAAAY ahead after today and Wyoming, and will stay that way even if someone else wins SC.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:19 PM

Depends on the state I think.

I hate open primaries!

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:10 PM

True, but I think you can extrapolate that if the conservative base is not excited about McCain (which I think is indisputable), and if the independents are more excited for Obama, then where would his national support come from. The only way that he would get a sizable base for the general election would be if we were forced to either vote for him or Hillary or Obama. But would it ever get that far? McCain, depending on how badly he looses (if he looses) will go into SC limping, where Huck and Fred have been focusing all their time and money. So if McCain then looses SC, he will be in really bad shape for FL, where Rudy is likely going to make his big stand. If McCain leaves Fl without a win, then what Super Tuesday states does he really have a shot at winning? There are a few, but I don’t think they will enough to really dent any of the other candidates. I know this is A LOT of speculation but it’s open thread time on primary night…let us dance in the moonlight!

Weight of Glory on January 15, 2008 at 8:19 PM

Well how wold that happen? Willard is WAAAY ahead after today and Wyoming, and will stay that way even if someone else wins SC.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:19 PM

Exactly, and that is why. They will be scrambling for delegates here on out.

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:20 PM

CABE on January 15, 2008 at 7:51 PM

You may want to think about how what you say reflects on your candidate. Unless you’re a KOS Kid and don’t care.

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 8:20 PM

Many US carmakers have moved production overseas while many foreign car companies have built factories here. BMW has one in S.C. Hyundai has one in Alabama. So are you concerned with jobs, or the strenght of the brand image of the American carmakers? (I’m asking sincerely).

Jobs may stay here but money (profit) goes ultimately to the country where the automakers are from. It’s good that they want to build their cars here, but it’s still better for America to buy from American companies.

davenp35 on January 15, 2008 at 8:21 PM

I’d give particular credibility if I hadn’t read your 8:09.

Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 8:19 PM

I’m not sure how they are connected, Mittens does have a history of sounding just as credible on multiple different positions, although not at the same time.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:21 PM

True, but I think you can extrapolate that if the conservative base is not excited about McCain

Weight of Glory on January 15, 2008 at 8:19 PM

To be frank, the conservative base isn’t excited about anyone. The only people excited about their candidates are Obama’s people and Paul’s people.

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:22 PM

Exactly, and that is why. They will be scrambling for delegates here on out.

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:20 PM

I don’t think it’s like that, it will remain all about momentum until Super Tue and then the delegate count will really matter.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:22 PM

To be frank, the conservative base isn’t excited about anyone. The only people excited about their candidates are Obama’s people and Paul’s people.

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:22 PM

That is very true…um…your name is Frak?

Weight of Glory on January 15, 2008 at 8:23 PM

I meant Frank…dang it!

Weight of Glory on January 15, 2008 at 8:23 PM

Jobs may stay here but money (profit) goes ultimately to the country where the automakers are from. It’s good that they want to build their cars here, but it’s still better for America to buy from American companies.

davenp35 on January 15, 2008 at 8:21 PM

Not really. Buy some stock in Toyota and you might begin to see the benefit of the company’s profits right here in America.

Big S on January 15, 2008 at 8:25 PM

I’m watching “The Biggest Loser” on NBC between election coverage. Biggest loser tonight politically? Hopefully McCain and Hucky.

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 8:27 PM

AP via Politico: .09% precincts reporting

Romney 38.1%
McCain 26.07%
Huck 18.65%
Paul 8.25%
Fred 4.95%
Rudy 1.65%
Hunter 0.17%

bnelson44 on January 15, 2008 at 8:28 PM

Not really. Buy some stock in Toyota and you might begin to see the benefit of the company’s profits right here in America.

Big S on January 15, 2008 at 8:25 PM

Yeah, TM’s at 52 week low, pe of 10, nice divident yield, what’s not to like?

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:29 PM

Yeah, TM’s at 52 week low, pe of 10, nice divident yield, what’s not to like?

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:29 PM

Oh well, it was just a throwaway example. My point still stands.

Big S on January 15, 2008 at 8:31 PM

Oh well, it was just a throwaway example. My point still stands.

Big S on January 15, 2008 at 8:31 PM

Oh, you misunderstood, I like 52 week lows. Buy low, sell high.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:32 PM

You may want to think about how what you say reflects on your candidate. Unless you’re a KOS Kid and don’t care.

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 8:20 PM

McCain butchered the First Amendment. Huckabee wants to eliminate Federalism. I know what I said. I stand by it. McCain and Huck can go to hell.

CABE on January 15, 2008 at 8:32 PM

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:21 PM

It read to me like a statement of absolutes, that’s all. Which affected the way I read your other comment. ie one guy good, one guy bad so everything is filtered in absolute terms based on preference. No biggie.

Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 8:34 PM

Big S on January 15, 2008 at 8:25 PM

Do foreign car companies pay US taxes on their profits if their factories are here? I would think not. That would go to your point. Of course the salaries they pay their workers help fuel our economy. Anyway, it’s definitely not the black & white issue it was 10-20 years ago.

Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:34 PM

It read to me like a statement of absolutes, that’s all. Which affected the way I read your other comment. ie one guy good, one guy bad so everything is filtered in absolute terms based on preference. No biggie.

Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 8:34 PM

But I’m not like that. I actually like Mitt. He is my second choice. I judge him by how he’s lived his life and I like the results. I just discount what he says.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:36 PM

Where are these early returns coming from? Anyone know?

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 8:37 PM

I judge him by how he’s lived his life and I like the results. I just discount what he says.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:36 PM

Perhaps as good an approach to evaluating anyone running for office.

Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:38 PM

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:36 PM

Thanks for saying, I tend to dismiss demagoguery. I’m wasn’t familar with you, so I appreciate you clarifying.

Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 8:41 PM

McCain butchered the First Amendment. Huckabee wants to eliminate Federalism. I know what I said. I stand by it. McCain and Huck can go to hell.

CABE on January 15, 2008 at 8:32 PM

Vote for Huckabee/McCain for Mars.

Their mandate?

Report back to us when the temperature on Mars drops about oooh…300 degrees.

Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 8:41 PM

Perhaps as good an approach to evaluating anyone running for office.

Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:38 PM

Unfortunately that’s not always easy. Imagine judging Reagan vs. Carter back in the mid 70′s. Not very conclusive.

Also, being able to say anything just to get elected is a kind of a minus in itself.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Thanks for saying, I tend to dismiss demagoguery. I’m wasn’t familar with you, so I appreciate you clarifying.

Spirit of 1776 on January 15, 2008 at 8:41 PM

No problem. I try to make rational choices based on all the available information.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:44 PM

GO MITT!!!!!!!

OKCubsFan on January 15, 2008 at 8:47 PM

From Yahoo! news.

Michigan Totals
Republicans
Mitt Romney 35%
John McCain 32%
Mike Huckabee 17%

» 5% of precincts reporting

Come on Mitt!

Speakup on January 15, 2008 at 8:51 PM

Unfortunately that’s not always easy. Imagine judging Reagan vs. Carter back in the mid 70’s. Not very conclusive.

Also, being able to say anything just to get elected is a kind of a minus in itself.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Well, Reagan advocated for limited government for years before running. So, the “how he lives” test at least tells you he was committed to those ideas.

I wish the candidates were asked more about their top priorities. Of course, they all promise everything, but when push comes to shove, what are the three things they’re absolutely committed to getting done. I have that argument with people about Huck. They say that they loves that he wants to get rid of the IRS. But is he really going to push for that? Or will it takes a back seat to an amendment defining marriage?

Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:52 PM

But I’m not like that. I actually like Mitt. He is my second choice. I judge him by how he’s lived his life and I like the results. I just discount what he says.

there you go…it’s not like the guy had to run for gov in Masachussetts or anything, I’d love to see any prima donna here actually run for office against the MSM in a blue state

wankers

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 8:53 PM

Why is David Beasley shilling for Hucky in SC? Beasley is a former SC governor. WTH?

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 8:53 PM

More like it from Yahoo!

Michigan Totals
Republicans
Mitt Romney 37%
John McCain 31%
Mike Huckabee 16%

» 6% of precincts reporting

Speakup on January 15, 2008 at 8:57 PM

MITT WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

OKCubsFan on January 15, 2008 at 9:00 PM

Well, Reagan advocated for limited government for years before running. So, the “how he lives” test at least tells you he was committed to those ideas.

I wish the candidates were asked more about their top priorities. Of course, they all promise everything, but when push comes to shove, what are the three things they’re absolutely committed to getting done. I have that argument with people about Huck. They say that they loves that he wants to get rid of the IRS. But is he really going to push for that? Or will it takes a back seat to an amendment defining marriage?

Spolitics on January 15, 2008 at 8:52 PM

With someone like Huck the only thing that’s certain is that he will try to optimize his re-election chances. He is a dangerous man.

Igor R. on January 15, 2008 at 9:01 PM

Fox News just called it for Mitt!!!!!

OKCubsFan on January 15, 2008 at 9:01 PM

Early call…but YES!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:02 PM

The RINO hunt was a success!

phronesis on January 15, 2008 at 9:03 PM

WOO HOO!!

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 9:03 PM

Too bad undecided didn’t pull it out on the Dems side.

phronesis on January 15, 2008 at 9:03 PM

CNN: McCain lost the base of the Republican party. Thank you, base!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:06 PM

The RINO hunt was a success

!

and you are?

prolly not a thuglican…bye!

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:08 PM

by the way regulars

I kill trolls

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:09 PM

CNN: McCain lost the base of the Republican party. Thank you, base!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:06 PM

I’m shocked! Juan McCain doesn’t appeal to the base? Shocked!

FRED!

jwp1964 on January 15, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Firstly I’m glad Mitt won tonight. I wonder for my own knowledge how do they call a winner at 37% to 31% McCain with 6% reporting.

Sorry just don’t understand this

flyboy777 on January 15, 2008 at 9:10 PM

CNN: McCain lost the base of the Republican party. Thank you, base!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:06 PM

Johnny Mac:

All your base are belong to us.

Buy Danish on January 15, 2008 at 9:11 PM

CNN is really outdoing Fox as far as telling us where the votes are coming from.

McCain is about to speak! All hail!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:16 PM

Smackdown shuck AND juan!!!

Will Juan McKennedyCain do a spanish or bilingual concession speech?

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 9:19 PM

how do they call a winner at 37% to 31% McCain with 6% reporting.

Sorry just don’t understand this

flyboy777 on January 15, 2008 at 9:10 PM

I never understood that either. You’d think with 94% left to report that nothing is a lock. My guess is that only 6% is reported to the media but “they” know more than they’re telling.

Buttercup on January 15, 2008 at 9:20 PM

CNN said Mitt won the big counties around Detroit easily! I dunno why that shocks me. McCain is doing well in the western part of the state.

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:21 PM

I never understood that either. You’d think with 94% left to report that nothing is a lock. My guess is that only 6% is reported to the media but “they” know more than they’re telling

dude….computers are smart

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:23 PM

Time to hunt some RINOS in SC.

therightwinger on January 15, 2008 at 9:26 PM

I never understood that either. You’d think with 94% left to report that nothing is a lock. My guess is that only 6% is reported to the media but “they” know more than they’re telling

dude….computers are smart

Well be that as it may. Maybe I could use the media’s logic with my stock trading….not

flyboy777 on January 15, 2008 at 9:28 PM

W

ill Juan McKennedyCain do a spanish or bilingual concession speech?

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 9:19 PM

Yeah, from Mars.

Mcguyver on January 15, 2008 at 9:29 PM

and you are?

prolly not a thuglican…bye!

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:08 PM

by the way regulars

I kill trolls

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:09 PM

Is this some sort of intentional affect or are you just retarded?

phronesis on January 15, 2008 at 9:29 PM

Is this some sort of intentional affect or are you just retarded?

so you are a troll right?

tell us about it

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:32 PM

Juan started his “defeat” speech and before he got out 5 words both FNC & CNN cut to the Mitt victory speech. Still haven’t heard Juan cry. Was this timing by Mitt intentional?

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 9:33 PM

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:32 PM

Is English your second language? Are you in this country illegally? That would explain why you might be upset that McCain lost.

phronesis on January 15, 2008 at 9:36 PM

McCain campaign spinning like an asteroid!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:36 PM

by the way regulars

I kill trolls

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 9:09 PM

We’ll be watching.

RushBaby on January 15, 2008 at 9:41 PM

Sen Grahamnesty on CNN…whining! Bwaahahahaha. The McCain campaign is trying to make it all about radical islam and terrorism!

SouthernGent on January 15, 2008 at 9:43 PM

Mitt just went to double-digit over Juan! Hope it holds.

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 9:44 PM

SouthernGent….
Does grahamnesty have a southern accent when he speaks spanish?

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 9:51 PM

NY Times headline tomorrow?

Hillary has record win over runnerup in MI primary!

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 10:00 PM

Fred is SO damned soft on Juan!

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 10:07 PM

That would explain why you might be upset that McCain lost.

are you joking? I am ecstatic…McCain and Hucklebee are loser candidates the MSM would love to push on us

are you watching CNN now? they are sad….

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 10:17 PM

We’ll be watching.

I consider that a compliment from you

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 10:24 PM

Fred is SO damned soft on Juan!

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 10:07 PM

Check it out loaner. Have you read this.

GLENN: How do you explain? Because — you know, and it’s unfair to ask a competitor this question but I’m going to ask it anyway because you know the man and you worked with the man for a long time and everybody says he’s a good man and everything else. But good God almighty, he’s wrong on just about everything. How do you explain with conservatives going out to vote, how are they supporting John McCain? What is this — where is this coming from?

SENATOR THOMPSON: I think the basis of it is national security, national defense. John was right, I think, with regard to Iraq and he stood tough during tough times and I think he turned out to be right. And I was the same place the whole time and have been. We agree on that. But John is wrong on some other important things and he was wrong when he voted against the Bush tax cuts.

GLENN: But wait a minute. I mean —

SENATOR THOMPSON: He says he’s changed his mind about that now and, you know, sobeit. But, you know, I was there during part of that time and I voted the other way. I believed the other way then, I believe the other way now. He’s certainly wrong with regard to the immigration bill that they tried to get the American people sign off on last year and they gave a resounding no and now everybody’s getting tough on the border. But on taxes and immigration, especially, you know, I think he’s wrong. But so is Huckabee as far as that’s concerned.

GLENN: But he’s also wrong with McCain/Lieberman where he wants to sign treaties for global warming. He wants to give away sovereignty on global warming. This guy is not a conservative.

SENATOR THOMPSON: No, I think he’s in the wrong direction on that, too. I think that that’s absolutely true. But, you know, he’s like everybody else. You know, he has his strong suits and his weak suits. But I think that the direction that he and Huckabee and others really, I think Giuliani and where Romney has been in the past all are going in a so-called moderate direction, which is going to lead to, you know, so-called big government conservativism or bigger government conservativism anyway.

GLENN: That doesn’t even make sense.

sonnyspats1 on January 15, 2008 at 10:25 PM

sonny………couldn’t someone “script” Fred? just a little? just a teeny bit?

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 10:44 PM

Are you in this country illegally?

heh..actually I am in Mexico…legally

windansea on January 15, 2008 at 10:46 PM

Imagine Nancy AND Hillary! UNITE CONSERVATIVES!

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 10:55 PM

Fredheads are flying their flags at half mast today!

Ron Paul gave Fred a beating he will never forget!

Now Fred Thompson will drop out and endorse Juan Mccain…proving to the remaining few Fredheads his total lack of honesty with them!

HaraldHardrada on January 15, 2008 at 11:32 PM

HaraldHardrada =yadayadayada

I DO think about Fred’s possible endorsement and it concerns me. If CONS stay together Fred’s endorsement for Juan won’t DO IT for him!
I think it COULD galvanize CONS against him and ensure Mitt’s nomination.

loaner on January 15, 2008 at 11:45 PM

Surfed past Kieth O on MSNBC just now where he played a tape of Juan’s defeat speech and while trying to say “Michigan voters”, JUAN actually started to say “mexican voters”! It was intelligible! God (interpret any way you want) HELP THE REPUBLICAN PARTY! Try to see it.
UNBELIEVABLE!

loaner on January 16, 2008 at 12:08 AM

Mitt holding a “Change” sign. sheesh..

Wish he would make up his mind already..

Chakra Hammer on January 16, 2008 at 12:35 AM

Now Fred Thompson will drop out and endorse Juan Mccain…proving to the remaining few Fredheads his total lack of honesty with them!

HaraldHardrada on January 15, 2008 at 11:32 PM

I’d eat the corn out of McCain’s poop before voting for the lying Huckster. Go away, imbecile.

Hollowpoint on January 16, 2008 at 1:06 AM

Time to hunt some RINOS in SC.

therightwinger on January 15, 2008 at 9:26 PM

The entire country is overrun with them. The history books will look back on November 11, 2008 as the day conservativism died.

Hope you folks enjoyed living in the last free market country that values individual freedoms, because your children and grandchildren won’t.

WE’RE DOOMED.

Hollowpoint on January 16, 2008 at 1:11 AM

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