New post-debate SC poll shows Fred in with a bullet at … fourth; Video: New Fred ad airs in South Carolina
posted at 3:24 pm on January 14, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The first survey since his bravura debate performance last week. I was worried it would show him in the lead and our commenters who’ve been sniffing that polls don’t matter and are always wrong would have to revisit their assessment. Whew!
But say this much for ol’ Fred. If the only thing he accomplishes in this campaign is to derail Huckamania, he’ll have accomplished much. There are worse things to be than a de facto stalking horse:
Over the past several days, the only real movement in South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary has been a four-point gain for Fred Thompson and a five-point decline for Mike Huckabee.
The big winner from that trade-off is John McCain.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain at 28%, Huckabee at 19%, Mitt Romney at 17%, and Fred Thompson at 16%. Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are tied with 5% support. Giuliani is betting his entire campaign on a strong showing in Florida, where he is now tied for the lead with three others.
He’s losing ground in the Gallup national poll too. Best-case scenarios tomorrow: A close Romney win splitting the field or a disastrous Romney loss, driving Mitt from the race and leaving Fred to pick up his supporters. Worst-case scenario: Anything else. It’s also worth noting that first place and fourth place in Florida right now are separated by two points. Too bad Fred’s in fifth. Oh well — by the time we get there, things will have shaken out anyhow.
Update: Fredporn!
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You really think if Romney loses big tomorrow, he’ll have to drop out? Remember, Kerry wasn’t so hot at one time, but he had enough personal wealth to continue on…and get the nomination…
JetBoy on January 14, 2008 at 3:30 PM
McCain is surging. If this plays out through Florida the unthinkable may happen and it will be McCain.
sweeper on January 14, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Who in SC, besides Grahamnesty, is going to vote for McCain? I hope these polls are NH-wrong. I do not want my state to be the one that essentially secured the GOP nomination for McCain.
wardrobedoor on January 14, 2008 at 3:31 PM
If Romney loses Michigan he’ll have nowhere to go.
sweeper on January 14, 2008 at 3:31 PM
The same people that keep electing Grahmnesty.
amerpundit on January 14, 2008 at 3:32 PM
Still treating HotAir readers with disrespect. Ok. Fine. Your privilige to act the ass.
My privilige to lesson my visits here and when I do stray in, to read only posts done by adults who don’t have an inferiority complex.
Montana on January 14, 2008 at 3:32 PM
I remember when they were writing Mr McAmnestty’s obituary not too long ago. Guess people can live with illegals running wild in the streets so long as a Vietnam veteran says it is alright.
McCain/Kennedy sounds more like Kerry these days and we saw how that worked out for him. People just because McCain is a veteran and a former POW DOESN’T mean you owe him anything other then respect for his service. He certainly doesn’t deserve your vote.
Just A Grunt on January 14, 2008 at 3:34 PM
It’s a sad deal but if I were betting my own money I’d have to put it on McAmnesty. Better than Billary or O’Bambam getting the office I guess. Sad, sad deal. Anyone thought of the consequences of the 2012 election without a New York and/or California in existence to even be counted?
Griz on January 14, 2008 at 3:37 PM
C’mon. Don’t let that get you down. He actually has a point, although put forth with the tact of a sledge hammer.
Nonetheless, even if the poll had said Fred was in the lead, I would STILL look at it with a jaded eye. Although I WOULD have been guilty of a “Whoo Hoo!”
wccawa on January 14, 2008 at 3:37 PM
I dunno…I just don’t think Romney would drop out until after SuperDuper Tuesday…He’s got too much cash to go anywhere, no?
Not that I’m a Mitt fan (FredHead here) but still, there’s just something about the guy…don’t know what…that I don’t like, or trust…
JetBoy on January 14, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Romney won’t drop out- by now he’s probably spent more than $25 million from his own pocket. He’s got too much money in the pot to fold his hand now with only 3 weeks of pandering to go before Feb 5th.
Hollowpoint on January 14, 2008 at 3:38 PM
I was just thinking today, but hasn’t Fred also earned the de facto Veep slot for most of the candidates?
If Fred were his VP running mate, it might even make McCain more palatable?
(To me, at least)
Topsecretk9 on January 14, 2008 at 3:38 PM
LOL. I question your sincerity.
Spirit of 1776 on January 14, 2008 at 3:39 PM
If McCain wins the nomination, I will officially be a conspiracy theorist. There is simply ZERO chance that Republicans are actually voting for this a$$. No friggin way!
Gregor on January 14, 2008 at 3:40 PM
Don’t be too hard on AP. He’s probably contractually bound to contradict Bryan.
RushBaby on January 14, 2008 at 3:41 PM
Remembering the hideous inaccuracy of many polls, I think it’s best to let the election happen and reassess then. Everything else is speculation, at best. Fun speculation, but nothing more, nothing less.
Besides, there is a history of poll takers skewing the ‘random selection’ of respondents to try to influence the outcome rather than report any real trends in public opinion.
pistolero on January 14, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Unfortunately, it would make Fred much LESS palatable.
Gregor on January 14, 2008 at 3:42 PM
I think Fred has a legitimate shot at winning in SC.
therightwinger on January 14, 2008 at 3:43 PM
You are so right! I live in Gwinnett County, Ga, has to be 80% illegals now. I cringe each time I hear a candidate talk about people living in the “shadows.” They don’t live in the shadows, they get right in your face here.
ILLEGALS is still my number one issue.
moonsbreath on January 14, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Oh gag me. Fred would never be McLiberals running mate.
ConservativePartyNow on January 14, 2008 at 3:44 PM
Just a couple of notes. 1st South Carolinians do not “keep electing” Lindsey Graham. He is in his first senate term. 2nd SC has the largest retired military population (per capita) in the country. That is why John McCain does well here. Me, not voting for either of them again.
KelliD on January 14, 2008 at 3:44 PM
+1
Spirit of 1776 on January 14, 2008 at 3:44 PM
Polls are really just a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time, so they do have a purpose and it’s up to us as individuals to either let them sway what we believe or not. 4 points is a pretty big bounce for Fred. People have been waiting to see him want it.
As a Frederalist myself, I hope both of those numbers are the beginning of a bigger trend. I think it’s safe to say that his bus tour and debate performance are directly responsible for the bounce.
Also, he really needs to go after McCain too in the next few days and promote his military endorsements.
RobTN on January 14, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Coming to this site I am reminded of the old Casey Kasem catch phrase. “Keep your feet on the ground, but keep reaching for the stars”.
It sort of sums up how they handle their Fred coverage.
/for the youngsters. Back in the old days before CD’s there was a guy on the radio that gave a wrap up of the weeks’ Top 40 songs and his name was Casey Kasem.
Just A Grunt on January 14, 2008 at 3:46 PM
voting history wise, per ACU ratings:
McCain lifetime rating of 82
Thompson lifetime rating is 87
George Allen, had ne not screwed up last year, has a 95 or so lifetime rating.
anyway, McCain isn’t as liberal as most think. Its just those certain, hot button and key issues and his rhetoric where he is. Its part of his political game to position himself as an indepedent. It works too, I’ve met many hard core leftist that profess they would vote for McCain. Which is amazing since he has a 100% pro-life voting record and his Iraq stance.
jp on January 14, 2008 at 3:46 PM
His campaign is dead Allah, maybe he thought that he could find some campaign virgins or groupies? ;)
Chakra Hammer on January 14, 2008 at 3:47 PM
This is the best news I’ve heard all day and what a great new commerical to go with it!
kerrhome on January 14, 2008 at 3:47 PM
Go Fred GO!!!!
spacekicker on January 14, 2008 at 3:47 PM
I don’t know. McCain keeps touting his veteran status, and if you look at our Congress, many Americans are willing to continue electing amnesty-granting buffoons. Even look at the Republicans in Congress.
Fred’s not gone after McCain much as of now, and apparently they’re close.
amerpundit on January 14, 2008 at 3:48 PM
I guess if the people of SC will elect Grahamnesty, there’s no reason to believe that they wouldn’t elect McCainnesty too. Mitt and Fred need to draw straws before super Tuesday. Whoever drops out, the other will win the nomination. Either one will work for me.
orlandocajun on January 14, 2008 at 3:48 PM
We chased them over there from Cobb county after we started arresting and deporting them. I saw where Gwinnett is trying to send some officers to the same training so that they can start doing the same.
Just A Grunt on January 14, 2008 at 3:49 PM
McCain is doing well b/c he’s getting votes from “independents” and democrats. Wait until a primary where only republicans can vote… which I believe is SC.
MT on January 14, 2008 at 3:50 PM
if McCain is nominated and picks Graham as his VP choice, the upside is Gov. Mark Sanford (Republican) would be able to appoint Graham’s replacement. in Arizona though a Dem gov. would replace mccain.
jp on January 14, 2008 at 3:50 PM
Wow…a Thompson/McCain ticket, the Dem’s would have a hard time beating…
Heck, even a McCain/Thompson ticket (although I’d much prefer the former)
JetBoy on January 14, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Stupid and vulgar.
RushBaby on January 14, 2008 at 3:52 PM
IT’s called Fredmentum. Fred is UP 4 points…that is a trend upwards….Huckaweiner is trending DOWN 5 points. Fred is going all in and if the polls keep trending up, its clear that Fred is getting his message out there and his shot in SC is good if not great.
ihasurnominashun on January 14, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Did anyone really think Fred! would jump out to an overwhelming lead after 1 debate? I mean really now. Four points is very impressive. The Fred! haters can continue to hate and put a negative spin on this, but for Fred!-heads like myself this is very good news.
matd on January 14, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Mitt is not leaving if he loses Michigan!
Buy Danish on January 14, 2008 at 3:55 PM
I’m still mystified as to what Fred’s campaign strategy is.
Both he and Paul have a great deal of interesting perspectives, far moreso than the others. Yet when Paul starts crossing his eyes, frothing at the mouth and blithering on about foreign policy/isolationism, he looks like an unhinged meth-glugging bum. Thompson at least maintains his composure and delivers his platform consistently and, at times (like the debate), impressively – yet I have little confidence he has the horsepower to drag his arse across the finish line.
LimeyGeek on January 14, 2008 at 3:57 PM
Thompson/Steele is my indulgent fantasy
LimeyGeek on January 14, 2008 at 3:58 PM
The bobblehead is back! The ad’s a little better than his last Iowa offering, but not a whole lot. Every Republican candidate will call himself a conservative and tick off a few specifics to back up the argument. Also, voters have their own definitions for what qualifies as “conservative”, and many of them back Romney, Huckabee or McCain (and even Giuliani!) for that very reason. I’m afraid appeals to voters’ ideological nomenclature aren’t going to win Fred much support at this point. His only real hope is to shamelessly pander to Southerners, in order to strip away some of McCain and Romney’s support. Huck supporters are probably not going anywhere.
Big S on January 14, 2008 at 3:59 PM
I’m with the conspiracy guy.
Who the heck is supporting McCain???!?!?
Kai on January 14, 2008 at 4:00 PM
For sure…in a perfect world…that would be great!
JetBoy on January 14, 2008 at 4:01 PM
Fred! has a new commercial out in SC. It looks pretty good, I think.
wccawa on January 14, 2008 at 4:03 PM
You know George Allen is a big time Fred supporter, right?
RobTN on January 14, 2008 at 4:03 PM
If we get a douchebag for the next 4 years as president it will be because of idiot evangelicals.
thareb on January 14, 2008 at 4:03 PM
Count me in.
RushBaby on January 14, 2008 at 4:04 PM
Fixed
broker1 on January 14, 2008 at 4:05 PM
Oh I see, we are all hypocrites in your eyes. Got it. Can’t be that we are pointing out serious scientific concerns with their accuracy. No. That can’t be it. We disagree with you, so we have to be hypocrites.
Karl Rove is wrong. Frank Luntz is wrong. Dick Morris is wrong. The polls in ‘04 were right. The fact that the methodologies are largely hidden is not a concern. The fact that The Poll that showed 40% of Atheists and Agnostics believed in God were completely logical. Etc, etc.
Oh, and PS, I don;t support any candidate per se. I’ll vote for anybody who survives except Paul and Huck. Nice try though.
The dirty secret is it is hard to accurately poll a primary. The unpredictability of who will turn out and what the mix of voters will be makes polling a primary election like reading chicken entrails — ugly, smelly and not very enlightening. Our media culture endows polls — especially exit polls — with scientific precision they simply don’t have.
-Karl Rove
TheBigOldDog on January 14, 2008 at 4:05 PM
No one should drop out before the Tuesday that is characterized by the superlative, “Super.”
Weight of Glory on January 14, 2008 at 4:11 PM
I’m with the conspiracy guy.
Who the heck is supporting McCain???!?!?
Kai on January 14, 2008 at 4:00 PM
The Wolfpack Media and La Raza…
DfDeportation on January 14, 2008 at 4:11 PM
While Thompson/Bolton would be awesome, Mike won’t do it, he’s too smart. Instead think Thompson/Romney cause that’s what needs to happen. Mitt needs to drop out and back Fred.
HotAirExpert on January 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM
More Fred Porn.
frankj on January 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM
Washington.
Weight of Glory on January 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM
To slightly deviate from Truman:
The Huck stops here!
ConservativePartyNow on January 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM
ihasurnominashun on January 14, 2008 at 4:12 PM
To whom do you eloquently assign blame for all the other ‘douchebags’?
LimeyGeek on January 14, 2008 at 4:13 PM
Totally agree. If Fred does that, or endorses McVain, I’ll have to retract just about every good thing I’ve said about him.
thirteen28 on January 14, 2008 at 4:14 PM
Now I love the idea of that. A good ticket (true conservatives) and it has a nice ring to it.
ThePrez on January 14, 2008 at 4:15 PM
Idiots and RINO’s … but I repeat myself.
thirteen28 on January 14, 2008 at 4:15 PM
That…was…great!
Weight of Glory on January 14, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Polls exist to give us something to argue about between voting events. A bit like giving children something to play with on a rainy day when we can’t go outside. Well, I guess they also exist to make money for those poll creators astute enough to convince us they are necessary.
a capella on January 14, 2008 at 4:19 PM
McCain is proving everyone wrong! He’s making the Republican talking heads look stupid.
froghat on January 14, 2008 at 4:23 PM
Unfortunately, Bolton would be too unelectable…but he’d make a great Sec. of State…
JetBoy on January 14, 2008 at 4:24 PM
SC Republicans vote for Graham because there’s no one else. The GOP won’t run anybody against him. All his challengers are no names with zero experience. I’m going to write-in a name, but it’s pretty much a given he will get reelected.
Don’t be too mad at SC, we did give you Jim DeMint in the Senate. That has to count for a lot right?
Immigration is the big issue for SC GOP and I would be shocked no matter what the polls say to see McCain leave here with a win.
wardrobedoor on January 14, 2008 at 4:24 PM
yes, point was had Allen not screwed up last year he’d be running away with the nomination right now.
jp on January 14, 2008 at 4:24 PM
Like I’ve been saying, Fred can steal votes from Huck and Mitt in SC.
If he comes in a close second, I’ll be happy. He’ll beat McCain in future states, because people are turning to Fred for pure Conservatism. It’ll take a little longer to convert the McCainiacs. Or maybe they’re the real insurgents in the party.
frode on January 14, 2008 at 4:25 PM
*howling*
Have you guys made T-shirts with the image at 1:30 yet? If so, I’ll buy a dozen!
RushBaby on January 14, 2008 at 4:25 PM
Allen did not screw up. “Macaca” is not a part of American English.
Igor R. on January 14, 2008 at 4:26 PM
Polls mean absolutley nothing (unless Fred is polling well).
Got FRED! (Not a question)
sleepy-beans on January 14, 2008 at 4:27 PM
If Fred makes this commerical “One more Iranian speed boat comes close to an American ship when I’m President, Tehran becomes a parking lot” he’ll win the SC primary by 10 points.
Igor R. on January 14, 2008 at 4:27 PM
BTW, an important snippet:
The race remains very fluid with 8% of voters undecided and 11% saying there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Huckabee’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him. For supporters of Thompson and Romney, 57% are that “certain.” For McCain, 55% are certain.
frode on January 14, 2008 at 4:27 PM
As a native South Carolinian, I can say two things; number one, the poll numbers kind of shock me. NO ONE I know supports McCain, no one. Last time McCain ran in a primary here, he actively courted Democrats to vote in the Republican primary for him, maybe that’s happening again.
Number two; Lindsey is a one-term Senator. His ass is out the door in the next election. Thankfully he’s already got primary opposition so that we won’t have to send another Democrat to the Senate.
A little election history to those that aren’t paying attention. Watch SC VERY closely, the winner of the SC primary has historically gone on to win the nomination.
lodestonejames on January 14, 2008 at 4:28 PM
I love Fred, but the head-bobbing in that ad is just excessive.
JamesP on January 14, 2008 at 4:28 PM
I think we can all agree that Fred has no chance in SC. He’s done, put a fork in him!
froghat on January 14, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Except the horse’s behind with twofirstnames…
EyeSurgeon on January 14, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Nobody who has delegates will drop out if we don’t have a clear winner. All who have delegates will have a ticket to the Republican convention.
Let the games continue!
Tennman on January 14, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Here’s one more commercial idea: “If you’re an illegal alien watching this commercial, better forge something and vote for McCain. Because when I’m in the White House, the only Amnesty you’re getting is from prosecution for your crimes. But I’ll supply a one-way ticket home.”.
Igor R. on January 14, 2008 at 4:31 PM
I sincerely hope you are not as premature in other aspects of your life!
LimeyGeek on January 14, 2008 at 4:32 PM
Fred’s dead folks….face it!
The American people have overwhelmingly rejected the laziest lobbyist/pres.candidate ever!
Time to come home to Huck if you want to beat Mccain!
HaraldHardrada on January 14, 2008 at 4:33 PM
LimeyGeek, oh get over it bud. He’s done! Stop making things so personal. I could of very easily responded. Yes when I had sex with your wife. But I didn’t. How bout dem apples?
froghat on January 14, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Croaker chapot: Do you really think just by saying something over and over makes it true? You must secretly be a democrat.
Tennman on January 14, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Folks, nobody with delegates will be dropping out, even if they have no money. In a brokered convention, all bets are off, but you have to be in the game to play.
For example, Fred: if Feb. 5th is the balkanized mess I expect and he’s gettting a share of the delegate, he stands a good chance to do well in Texas in March. As the only one who does not hold any toxic positions on the issues (not even abortion, where he is- like myself- a federalist), as long as he has a respectable number of delegates, he’s in play in a brokered convention.
michaelo on January 14, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Can anyone guess why some troll would come in and post the same message over and over “Fred is done”? Whatever it is, it’s not because he believes that Fred is done.
Igor R. on January 14, 2008 at 4:34 PM
HaraldHardrada, yup, the public has seen and rejected both Mitt and Fred. They are both dead.
froghat on January 14, 2008 at 4:35 PM
Change your name to FaraldFardrada and get Huck to do something similar. Maybe then he’ll win then.
Igor R. on January 14, 2008 at 4:36 PM
To clarify: Fred is the only one without a record of holding a toxic view on key issues (such as immigration or taxes). All of them are mouthing the right words on the issues, but it’s what a politician does that counts, not his words.
michaelo on January 14, 2008 at 4:36 PM
Just obliquely pulling your leg, nothing else!
LimeyGeek on January 14, 2008 at 4:37 PM
michaelo, Mexicans are afraid of Fred. That’s why he’s so low in the polls.
froghat on January 14, 2008 at 4:37 PM
Dem apples are usually rotten. Try some Republican apples.
Igor R. on January 14, 2008 at 4:37 PM
Rudy Rudy Rudy Rudy
He is not perfect but the fact is that he is by far the best on the majority of issues.
Rudy’s biggest problem has been the unskilfull way that he has not handled the abortion issue. And the fact is if it were not for the abortion issue that he would be the consensus candidate.
In 1980 when we put affirmed the life position at the Republican convention, we made very clear that the Republican party is a big tent and that just because someone has a different view that then dogmatic view on abortion, they are not ejected from the party.
Now we have talk show hosts like Laura Ingraham with jihad against Rudy because he does not take her view in abortion.
So instead we will get John McCain with higher taxes, limitations on free speech, open borders and the lack of resolve to use the necessary means to get life saving information from terrorists. Great.
Or we will get Mitt, who just basically decided it was better to lie about his position on abortion and immigration and gay rights and much of the Republican base has bought this hook, line and sinker. Anyone who believes that he changed his views on these items coincidentially with trying to get the Repub nomination, when he was 58 years old, well, I have bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
Or we will get Huckabee: Bill Clinton without the sexual compulsions. Great, another liar..
Rudy is the best in the field. Think about it. Please
georgealbert on January 14, 2008 at 4:38 PM
georgealbert, I concur! Rudy is the man!!!!
froghat on January 14, 2008 at 4:39 PM
I’m ashamed to admit I had to furrow my brow for a while before I got that!
LimeyGeek on January 14, 2008 at 4:40 PM
IF Mitt tanks in either MI or SC, where does his support go?
Would Fred! not be the most logical beneficiary of Mitt’s supporters looking for another horse to back?
SimplyKimberly on January 14, 2008 at 4:43 PM
jp on January 14, 2008 at 3:46 PM
McCain is not totally pro-life: He supports Federal funding of embryonic stem-cell research.
Damian G. on January 14, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Igor R. on January 14, 2008 at 4:36 PM
It was actually kind of funny Igor!
HaraldHardrada on January 14, 2008 at 4:43 PM
There’s no way Mitt drops out of the race before Fred old boy.
froghat on January 14, 2008 at 4:44 PM
You have it backwards- if one is to vote for the lesser of two evils, Huckster comes out on the losing end. The only justification I could see for voting McCain would be to beat the Huckster.
Hollowpoint on January 14, 2008 at 4:44 PM
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