Shock poll: Mitt leads McCain by eight in Michigan?
posted at 1:30 pm on January 13, 2008 by Allahpundit
No foolin’. That’s not the only new poll showing him with a little breathing room either, although two other new ones have Maverick clinging to a one-point lead. Good news or bad news for Fred? A disaster in Michigan might have led Romney to drop out, with his SC supporters naturally gravitating to Thompson, but since a disaster was never very likely and a close second probably would be enough to keep him in the race, a Mitt victory that stops McCain cold is probably the second-best outcome for Fredheads. Having Huck, Mac, and Mitt split the first three primaries neutralizes the momentum for all of them and lowers the threshold needed for an upset in South Carolina. And since Mitt won’t be running any ads in the state (or will that now change?), his own bounce in SC is likely to be small.
Does it matter? Nah:
Today, all the usual indicators are dismal for Republicans. If that broad assertion seems counterintuitive, produce a counterexample. The adverse indicators include: shifts in voters’ identifications with the two parties (Democrats now 50 percent, Republicans 36 percent); the tendency of independents (they favored Democratic candidates by 18 points in 2006); the fact that Democrats hold a majority of congressional seats in states with 303 electoral votes; the Democrats’ strength and the Republicans’ relative weakness in fundraising; the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the “wrong track”; the Republicans’ enthusiasm deficit relative to Democrats’ embrace of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, one of whom will be nominated.
Below you’ll find a new ad set to start airing today on Fox News and Michigan local stations. It’s standard Romney abortion flip-flop fare, but with a big twist — the group that’s responsible is Republican Majority for Choice. Why are they wasting their money trying to take him down in Michigan when the two alternatives, McCain and Huckabee, are also pro-life? Why not wait until Florida to run it so that Giuliani benefits?
I leave you with George
Blowback
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Great minds think alike ;-)
Strange, isn’t it, they couldn’t find any qualified citizens for a job that used to pay moderately well. Guess it was a job Americans don’t want…except, perhaps, for a few unemployed East valley Americans I know. But I’m sure it was better just to give it to a hard-working, family values-oriented, rapist illegal alien.
Shay on January 13, 2008 at 5:02 PM
Heh, absolutely Shay. That story hit me like a gut punch, first because of the terrible nature of the crime, but second because I operate heavy equipment and live in South Mountain. I have a few guesses as to which company this might be, and I hope they lose all of their contracts and maybe face some charges.
joewm315 on January 13, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Why else is JOHN MCCAIN a viable candidate???
malan89 on January 13, 2008 at 5:07 PM
C’mon Allah. I know you’re a pessimist, but in spite of all of the trends toward the Dems the vast majority of Americans are not Dem partisans and are quite capable of voting the other way. You know as well as I do that they’re snoozing through the primaries. There are just too many variables in play before November to usher in the thousand-year Dem dynasty.
We can quote Bill Paxton from Aliens if polls are showing us about to get pummeled in late October. Until then, I’ll lay off buying those five gallons of Jack Daniel’s Green Label.
fiatboomer on January 13, 2008 at 5:09 PM
You had me fooled several years ago when I was still quite naive
Well you said that you were such a straight talker
And that in you one could always believe
But you tried to give away the things you should have loved and one of them was our nation’s sovereignty
I had some dreams, they were form in my beer
Foam in my beer, and…
You’re so McVain
You probably think even the surge is about you
You’re so McVain
I’ll bet you think the world revolves around you
Don’t you? Don’t you?
- Carly Simon Redux
MB4 on January 13, 2008 at 5:15 PM
What the article doesn’t say is that there’s a lot of bad blood between him and McAmensty. But that’s not an uncommon story around Arizona, actually.
Shay on January 13, 2008 at 5:15 PM
“Only the Dead have seen the end of McCain.”
-Plato
joewm315 on January 13, 2008 at 5:17 PM
You are manipulating reality by implying that Fred’s mere presence in this campaign is enough to crown him with the title.
By the way, I will put my conservative creds up against yours any day of the week.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 4:49 PM
I’m not questioning your conservatism, and I share your fustration at how the media is downplaying Fred. That’s the problem. We have a unique perspective. Not everybody has the time to do the research but those who go to Freds rallies mostly come away with positve thoughts. I believe the media is doing this on purpose. They view all the others as beatable.
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 5:18 PM
Heavy equiment operator, huh? Yeah, the employer just couldn’t find an American citizen to train for that job.
Hey candidates, it doesn’t do much good to deport the bastards if they can just mosey back over the border.
funky chicken on January 13, 2008 at 5:21 PM
As long as the border is open, and as long as employers are willing to hire illegals to save themselves a few bucks per hour (which we taxpayers get stuck for when we pay for “free” health care for the illegals, among other things) this stuff will continue to happen.
If we aren’t going to build a secure fence at the border, it’s better to not deport scum like this guy. Life without parole is a better deal for US citizens than shipping him off to face “justice” in Mexico.
funky chicken on January 13, 2008 at 5:25 PM
So, are you saying that your candidate has convinced you that he’s a conservative?
Heh. Riiiiiiiight.
Fred’s done all the convincing needed. That’s why he’s labeled by almost everone as the only true conservative in the race.
Problem is that morons such as you simply don’t care.
You’re not basing your decision on any lack of convincing. I’m quite sure you’re plenty convinced that Fred is the conservative choice. You have your reasons and they have nothing to do with lack of convincing.
There’s absolutely no question that all other candidates are liars. There’s no mystery about that. Everyone knows it, including you. So the question becomes … why are you still voting for lying, manipulating, fraudulent scum?
Stop using this lame fantasy that Fred “hasn’t convinced you.”
The truth is that you are exactly like Bill Clinton’s supporters. You wouldn’t give a rat’s a$$ if your candidate was filmed executing children. He’s your candidate and you’re sticking with him.
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:30 PM
I’m with Mitt!
madmonkphotog on January 13, 2008 at 5:31 PM
There is not much time left.
We desperately need to defeat John Mccain.
Mike Huckabee is the only candidate capable of beating Juan Mcamnesty. Like him or not he is the only candidate capable of defeating Mccain.
Not only would Juan Mccain make a terrible president and would destroy the country with his amnesty for illegals and family reunification plans…he has NO chance of beating the dems. 80% of the country is against amnesty for illegals and would not vote for Mr. Amnesty
Mccain is 72 years old and has many problems with skin cancer…at 72 Juan is the oldest candidate to ever run for president. Believe it or not more people are biased against a elderly candidate than A. a women candidate B. a black candidate or C. a mormon candidate
Mccain would lose the general election don’t let the liberal and saudi muslim owned media dictate who our nominee is!
Face it… it is either Mccain or Huckabee make the right choice
HaraldHardrada on January 13, 2008 at 5:35 PM
Finally, a glimmer of hope. I hope I speak for a lot of people here when I say I’d rather just not vote than put my support behind either John McCain or Mike Huckabee. Ridiculously weak Rinos. Romney and Thompson are the two best choices this cycle, with Giuliani also being acceptable because he’s a fiscal conservative…a strong one at that.
therightwinger on January 13, 2008 at 5:46 PM
I hope so. I’m not even a Mitt fan but dam I loathe McCain.
Griz on January 13, 2008 at 5:46 PM
You began by saying:
I do not accept your premise that all the other candidates are lying, and so forth.
All I can tell you is that my opinions are based on my own informed opinions and observations about the candidates. I do not blame the MSM for the fact that until the SC debate it appeared that Fred was not fully engaged in the process. I blame it on him and his campaign.
Certainly, to blame the voters, as Gregor has, is an insult to our intelligence. I have not blamed a single voter for not voting for Romney in Iowa or NH and delivering a win for him, yet Fred Heads are very quick to blame the voters instead of their own candidate.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Good grief. We’re surrounded by imbeciles.
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Of course you don’t. You’re just as dishonest as they are. We’ve all seen that in your comment history on HotAir.
In order to believe what you just said, you would have to be either brain dead, or a liar. I don’t believe you’re brain dead.
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:50 PM
By the way …
I made that comment. Not jerrybg. Get your facts straight.
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Exactly. And that’s just the way I meant it.
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Is this too difficult for you? I have repeatedly said the candidate has to convince me to vote for him. Just having a “conservative” platform is not enough.
Why do we bother having campaigns at all? You seem to be saying that all they have to do is issue a press release which state their positions on issues, lists their curriculum vitae, and that’s it!
Do you have any idea how moronic that sounds?
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 5:53 PM
I only hope Romney takes Michigan, Fred takes SC & everyone work hard to take out McCain & Huck. I’m comfortable with any of the other R candidates (the usual exception, you know who, applies)
Security Mom on January 13, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Do you have ANY idea how moronic it is to purposely vote for a candidate who you KNOW is a fraudulent lying scumbag when you also happen to KNOW there’s a candidate who is not?
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Actually, you have it backward. That happens to be what YOU are saying. You seem to think that all we have to do is read what the candidates have put on their websites during the election to find out who they are and what they’re about. You seem to think that everything they’ve done in the past is meaningless. YOU seem to be saying that all they have to do is issue a press release which states that all of their previous positions on issues are to be ignored.
Do you have any idea how moronic that sounds?
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Hey now Gregor, I know FDT has had some trouble representing terrorists and funneling cash to his son before, while hogging up a Senate seat and doing zero for conservatism, but I’d hardly call him a lying scumbag. I leave that to tommylotto.
BKennedy on January 13, 2008 at 6:00 PM
BKennedy. Nobody here takes anything you say seriously. Why embarrass yourself further? Both you and Tommylotto are a joke here.
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 5:47 PM
The others have been running forever, cut em’ some slack. You know the media’s not covering him. Just a little more time. He hasn’t peaked yet. And don’t forget, he’s doing this a shoe string compared to Mitt.
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Do you understand the difference between an opinion and a fact?
I support Romney, Rudy, and Fred in that order. Which one of them are “fraudulent, lying scumbags”?
Oh, and I apologize for confusing one of your statements with someone else. The confusion began when they quoted you in a comment to me and did not make it clear that you were the source of the quote. Speak to them about it.
I’m not wasting one more minute of my life arguing with you and your moronic, dogmatic opinions, nor will I engage another person on this blog who calls me a “liar” because I support a candidate or candidates and don’t agree with them.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 6:03 PM
Neither
Entelechy on January 13, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Your dogma just got run over by my karma.
wccawa on January 13, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Consequently, blame the MSM for
trying toinfluencing the young impressionable minds that flocked to the Iowa Caucus in a open outcry situation where they were under peer pressure to vote for the “Christiancandidateaberration”.These youn’uns were barely teenagers on 9/10/2001, and now are encouraged to come out and vote in droves for
christianHuckabee.They obviously don’t relate to Rush and other conservative talking heads, with their talk off a new kind of conservative agenda.
Little do they know the cliff they’re being led over.
Of course Huck would have plenty of ambulances waiting, I’m sure.
Mcguyver on January 13, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Silly Gregor, I just like goading you because you defy Newton’s Third Law of Motion with every response. With you it’s more like “every action has a completely hyperbolic and overblown reaction disproportionaite to the initial action.”
I just find you amusing and don’t ever take you seriously. You’ve never pointed me to one thing Fred has ever done for conservatism, although you have pointed me to policy papers he’s written on his website. I don’t support chumps who are all talk and no action, which is why Fred is second in my book because his platform is the most agreeable, but he’s never promoted or defended it before September 2007.
BKennedy on January 13, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 6:03 PM
I’m the guilty one for confusing the quotes. I thought your preference was the reverse of what you stated here. sorry.
I have a very short list. Fred.
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 6:12 PM
What’s the matter BKennedy?
Don’t believe me? Let’s find out how accurate I am. You can even VOTE IN YOUR OWN POLL to help yourself out.
Just who are HotAir readers BKennedy and Tommylotto?
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 6:13 PM
I have never said, or implied that it is over for any of the candidates.
As for Fred’s media coverage, the fact is that despite having been repeatedly asked to appear on his show, he refused invitations to appear on O’Reilly until last week He chose to skip the first debate and go on Leno. Those are examples of strategic decisions he made.
I am tired of hearing people like Gregor insult the voters for not anointing his candidate as if this were a coronation, and spewing insults at us for not seeing the world through his narrow little mind.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Not to worry. I don’t hold either of those things against you!
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 6:15 PM
Wow. A real poll. With real voters!
—sits back, gets the popcorn and watches—
wccawa on January 13, 2008 at 6:18 PM
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 6:15 PM
nor I you. 2nd amendment. Mitt & Rudy don’t make the cut.
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 6:21 PM
How is giving in-state tuition to illegals or calling the bill opposing such aid “un-Christian, un-American, irresponsible and anti-life” any better than what McCain was pushing? How about his support of giving illegals drivers licenses? Why should I believe that Huckabee wouldn’t sign an amnesty bill, opening the gates to even more illegals. His record sure makes me think he would fully support amnesty.
Gianni on January 13, 2008 at 6:21 PM
Just who are HotAir readers BKennedy and Tommylotto?
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 6:13 PM
little men who live under bridges waiting for thir share of the dole?
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 6:24 PM
There is a huge weight to the good memories of Mitt’s dad in Michigan, where Geo. Romney did not impose Mormonism, flip flop, or act insolent towards any group.
I heard a hard hat this week talking to his buddy saying that only Romney cares about Michigan. This guy looked too young to remember the dad.
I also heard a young black girl with college repeat the mantra that whites would vote for any white woman before they will vote for a black man, which tells me her demographic is the one who will vote for any black man before they will vote for a a white woman.
This is a very big factor to consider later.
Obama is setting himself up as the saviour of all minorities. Meanwhile there are obviously more whites crossing to Obama than the opposite. What a nasty residual of racism is emerging on both sides. This helps conservatives IMHO.
There are more people lying about who they will vote for than I can count. No one wants to tell the truth on this one. Political discussion is nil. The pollsters whould watch out. We might get the honest truth in this vote
entagor on January 13, 2008 at 6:38 PM
GREGOR MUST HAVE SOME REALLY SHORT ARMS.
He holds his politics too close to his heart.
SECOND LOOK AT HOTAIR COMMENTATOR GREGOR!
VOTE HERE: IS HE REAL?
Mcguyver on January 13, 2008 at 6:42 PM
A most fascinating story. Thank you for sharing. It DOES make one pause and think, yes?
wccawa on January 13, 2008 at 6:45 PM
This is more accurate
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 6:47 PM
Hmmm… based on the results of these polls, BKennedy and tommylotto may have peaked too soon. Perhaps their strategy of “hit ‘em hard and hit ‘em early” didn’t pay off. Their base has abandoned them at this point.
On the other hand, Gregor seems to sort of be hanging in there, and you can sense he can reach out and appeal to several different blocs. But y’know, he DID enter the race late, and (whispers) personally, I think he lacks fire in the belly. Shhh!!!
wccawa on January 13, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Lol
joewm315 on January 13, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Holding your country too close to your heart or anything for that matter is a problem.
There’s a time and place to realize that ultimately NOTHING MATTERS.
….and, that everything will work out for good in the end.
..and, that at some point, we have reached the maximum bandwidth allowed for discussions.
Mcguyver on January 13, 2008 at 7:04 PM
Michigan: Romney 26% McCain 25% Huckabee 17%
bnelson44 on January 13, 2008 at 7:08 PM
Dude, them’s fighting words.
Signed,
A vet
wccawa on January 13, 2008 at 7:16 PM
Fine with me – only Mitt, Fred, and Duncan (when he’s allowed) speak out against the REWARDS of shamnesty, complete with soliciting bribes of $3000 to keep their ill-gotten goods.
fred5678 on January 13, 2008 at 7:27 PM
All I can tell you is that my opinions are based on my own informed opinions–Buy Danish
LOL!
maverick muse on January 13, 2008 at 7:33 PM
If either McCain or Huckabee ends up being the nominee it will likely force a split in the GOP that will ensure the Democrats own that office for decades.
If Republicans have gotten so liberal that the majority of their votes end up on McCain or Huck then there isn’t any room left for conservative voters in the party. Without conservatives the GOP cannot win.
I do have to credit McCain and Huck for making me see Mitt and Rudy as less RINO than I did before though. Honestly, the very thought that I might vote for Rudy is a huge downshift for me but if it came down to voting for Rudy over Democrats with R behind their names I could make it over that hill.
I won’t vote for a Democrat so if my choice is Hillary / Obama VS McCain / Huckabee I would hope that Ron Paul would go all independent so I could still vote next November. Yes, it is that bad!
I had actually hoped that Huckabee would be a Christian first and that might soften his socialist traits but it has become clear that he’s just riding the cross to the election because his politics weren’t getting him there. Living the next state over from Gov. Huckabee I can tell you he was somewhere to the left of Bill Clinton and listening to him talk he hasn’t moved right a bit.
Starting a new party is such a drag maybe we conservatives should borrow a play from the DEMs and infest their party. They sure have put plenty of liberals in the GOP over the past 10 years.
Buzzy on January 13, 2008 at 7:36 PM
You are correct, sir!
Huck is shamesty in sheep’s clothing.
No.
Yes!
Hunter, Mitt, and Thompson are the only ones for strict enforcement, with no ifs, ands, or buts. Huck has an awfully big but with his subsidized tuition for illegal aliens. A non-starter. Read what really works - right now – in 4 states. Only 46 to go.
fred5678 on January 13, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Buy Danish & Co. have dedicated all their heart, might, mind and strength to their designated revisionist con man.
The same criticism applies to Huckabee supporters.
Conservative principles are not their source of inspiration. Self adulation is their rationale that they’ll defend to the death of the conservative movement.
maverick muse on January 13, 2008 at 7:52 PM
THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICE!
That truth is on generically greater level than just saying that everything matters so much that I have to get bent all out of shape about it and break the HA comment posts beyond reason.
It is not at all directed to our faithful servicemen and woman, who showed that their is no greater love and sacrifice that one can make, than risking one’s life for others.
In the end, I always believe that all that sacrifice will be avenged and justified.
Mike Huckabee is not the one to become the vehicle for such, rather, he is an aberration allowed to happen in our time to show us what we collectively don’t want to happen.
And, even Mike Huckabee will be but a rotten stick-in-the-mud memory to trace our roots in a real principled, representative, Republic values.
AGAIN, THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICE.
……ON WITH THE BATTLE!
Mcguyver on January 13, 2008 at 7:55 PM
The dimocrats have screwed the Michigan economy like two-dollar hooker. Since they have swallowed that class warfare garbage spewed by the left like a starving urchin, the state might have enough sense to vote for someone who can bring some life into their sinking economy. That will not be Hickabee, McCan’t or one of the same ole dimocrats who have lead them willingly into the cesspool of an economy they have now. Not really, blaming Bush is much easier than using their brains.
volsense on January 13, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Having lived in Michigan almost all my life, I can tell you that 90% of the state is conservative, but unfortunately the idiots that live in Detroit, Ann Arbor and Lansing out number the people in the state that have to work for a living and who know what it’s like to balance a budget. Granholm and her politics of tax, tax, tax has run the state into bankruptcy and until she and her ilk are out of the state, they will continue to do so. Unfortunately they still control politics in the state due to just their sheer numbers.
flytier on January 13, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Huck has an awfully big but………..
fred5678 on January 13, 2008 at 7:40 PM
is that spelled correctly?
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 8:13 PM
I debated making that pun, but deferred to this polite company.
fred5678 on January 13, 2008 at 8:18 PM
It was also an unchallenging hanging curve ball. No glory in that.
fred5678 on January 13, 2008 at 8:19 PM
fred5678 on January 13, 2008 at 8:19 PM
True.
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 8:33 PM
’tis cool.
Now then, please update us on the polls?
wccawa on January 13, 2008 at 9:11 PM
You finally got me on something, Moonbat.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 9:11 PM
Even if we were to stipulate that you are correct (big if there), my First Amendment comes before your Second Amendment.
Fred doesn’t make the cut.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 9:17 PM
It’s one poll. If you look at anything other than the RCP average, you’re fooling yourself, AP.
Romney 26.2
McCain 25.3
scotth on January 13, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Even if we were to stipulate that you are correct (big if there), my First Amendment comes before your Second Amendment.
Fred doesn’t make the cut.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 9:17 PM
show me!
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 9:36 PM
McCain-Feingold.
Goodnight.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 10:02 PM
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 9:36 PM
McCain-Feingold.
Goodnight.
Buy Danish on January 13, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Gee. How did I know that you were going to go there. I don’t save links but the one that counters this I should have. It goes to his regretting having supported that.. His intent was to try and clean of the mess. Just know that Fred is a Federalist ! Everything that he has been a part of and wants to do is in our best interest of this country!!! Bar none!!! Even his flirtation with the CFR. I put Fred in the same patriotic vain as Pat Tillman and I know what Pat gave up.!!! And there ain’t a Vet that comes on this site that doesn’t know of what I speak!!!! Sorry, but you touched a nerve.
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 10:07 PM
now I’ll say goodnight
jerrytbg on January 13, 2008 at 10:09 PM
Via Instapundit and the New York Times:
Gregor on January 13, 2008 at 10:29 PM
jerrytbg – Here you go, as example of why first is needed for second.
Spirit of 1776 on January 13, 2008 at 10:52 PM
Hm, didn’t he go up to SCOTUS to defend it? Or is that part of a prolonged flirtation.
btw: “Senator McCain’s chief of staff, declared in 2001 that “if McCain-Feingold passes, it will not have happened if it weren’t for Fred Thompson.”
Spirit of 1776 on January 13, 2008 at 10:55 PM
And here’s a couple lines from the organization that endorsed him, Human Events.
That was written 9.22.07 (so you have the frame of reference for “recently”)
Spirit of 1776 on January 13, 2008 at 10:58 PM
Here’s the brief filed at the Supreme Court by Fred in support of his legislation, just in case you want to look at it jerrytrg.
Spirit of 1776 on January 13, 2008 at 11:04 PM
Atta boy, Mitt. Rock on!
argos on January 13, 2008 at 11:18 PM
wccawa on January 13, 2008 at 9:11 PM
Just click on my handle. It’ll take you here. Scroll down and Click on “view results”.
Mcguyver on January 14, 2008 at 12:23 AM
He lives in an echo chamber. It’s always the same and he has ceased to consider it’s validity or lack thereof.
csdeven on January 14, 2008 at 12:54 AM
He wants to cut off all debate and ends up sounding like a Stalinist. I keep waiting for the Thought Police to swoop in and arrest me for daring to support candidates other than Fred Thompson.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Buy Danish on January 14, 2008 at 11:00 AM
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