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Mitt plans no ads next week in Florida and South Carolina?

posted at 2:30 pm on January 9, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Take your pick: Either the suspicions that he might pack it in after Michigan are sounder than we thought or he has less money on hand than suspected and needs to dump whatever he’s got into Michigan in the short term to take the state. How could he be short on cash, though? He might not want to spend the family fortune to run for another month if he doesn’t think he can win but surely he’s willing to go deep enough into the pocket to get to South Carolina. I don’t get it. He won big last night among conservatives and border enforcers, too. Given that, why not take a chance on SC?

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Riehl and Ace are touting the fact that he’s now fifth nationally in the new Gallup — yes, ‘Heads, behind even Fred — down five points from December. That reflects his loss in Iowa but not in New Hampshire, so maybe he’s poised to sink further. Rasmussen’s got him right in the thick of it at 19% in their new daily national poll, although that also doesn’t account for NH. Maybe he’s just discouraged with having to shovel crap every five days about how he loves loves loves those “silver medals”?

Note that Rudy is now in single digits nationally in the Rasmussen data.


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what is this rudy you speak of?

zane on January 9, 2008 at 2:32 PM

It’s gonna be an absolute pasting in november.

lorien1973 on January 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM

I think someone should go check on Hugh, just to make sure he’s…OK.

see-dubya on January 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM

That Rasmussen poll looks fishy. Fred Thompson at 12 percent? lol

froghat on January 9, 2008 at 2:35 PM

yes, ‘Heads, behind even Fred — down five points from December.

I hear a train a comin, comin round the bend.

Oh, almost for got,

Go Fred!

RobertInAustin on January 9, 2008 at 2:36 PM

Also possible that he thinks he can’t win in a 3 horse race between Huck and McCain, which maybe be true because he is the common enemy between them. So he might be interested in seeing the profile of both Fred and Rudy raised leaving him as everyone’s second choice. His paid media, whatever it’s faults, has gotten him national recognition.

Spirit of 1776 on January 9, 2008 at 2:36 PM

Then Fred has a chance. Do you think Ann Romney is whispering in his ear? “Honey, we could donate a lot more money to planned parenthood if you got out of the race.”

Bill C on January 9, 2008 at 2:36 PM

If Rudy drops out, where does his support go? Romney, Thompson, or Other? Maybe even to Roooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Paaaaaaaauuuuuuullllllllllllll!

Hey, the guy’s got a blimp. I don’t see any other people with a blimp. A BLIMP!!!!!!!!!! (With Star Wars music!)

Nethicus on January 9, 2008 at 2:37 PM

It’s gonna be an absolute pasting in november.

lorien1973 on January 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM

Yep, I will be cancelling my health insurance in october cuz it will be free right?

I can quit my job cuz they will take care of me right?

Ill get an exxon check cuz she will take their profits right?

Sheesh, Im gonna move..

broker1 on January 9, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Rudy’s national number went from 17% to 9% in 2 days.

2 days.

That says to me that the national polling is very fluid and subject to large sudden changes, and that he or anyone else could move up very rapidly very quickly.

Maybe Fred. Maybe Rudy.

This tussle is far from over. Let the rest of the primary states and voters speak first.

Always Right on January 9, 2008 at 2:37 PM

That Rasmussen poll looks fishy. Fred Thompson at 12 percent? lol

froghat on January 9, 2008 at 2:35 PM

I’m sorry, does it not fit your narrative sunshine?

broker1 on January 9, 2008 at 2:38 PM

Second look at moving to New Zealand!

Darksean on January 9, 2008 at 2:38 PM

If Romney bails after a Michigan loss, where will South Carolina Republicans go to?

Go FRED!

ulyses on January 9, 2008 at 2:39 PM

He won big last night among conservatives and border enforcers, too. Given that, why not take a chance on SC?

I think it’s because he suspects issue-oriented ads aren’t working for him against a candidate whose support doesn’t seem based on issues.

This will also help him avoid the ‘look at all that money and no win’ storyline that has come out of Iowa and NH.

Plus, Super Tuesday…its hour come round at last.

Slublog on January 9, 2008 at 2:39 PM

Eventually the GOP “spoiler” candidates are going to have to start bowing out, or the vote dilution will get so strong that people like Huckabee might actually win. I’ve not studied this carefully, but just by looking at RCP’s tracking polls, you saw Rudy’s numbers go down in NH at the same time McCain’s went up — and both Rudy and McCain are “national security” candidates. Likewise, Huckabee diluted Romney among values voters in Iowa.

Outlander on January 9, 2008 at 2:40 PM

I don’t get it. He won big last night among conservatives and border enforcers, too. Given that, why not take a chance on SC?

Bigger fish to fry. Why spend $ and energy on 1 state when you have momentum going into the election, when you can concentrate on other states?

AlexB on January 9, 2008 at 2:40 PM

Hugh appears to be floating the idea that Romney can still pick up the most delegates to the convention, and secure the nomination that way. I also heard a prominent Mitt strategist say the same thing last night on Fox News. No one else is talking about that possibility though, as far as I can tell.

What if everyone stays in the race till the end, and we must wait to see who gets the most delegates? That could be quite interesting…

freakagriep on January 9, 2008 at 2:40 PM

C’mon Fred!

omnipotent on January 9, 2008 at 2:40 PM

If Mitt is giving up on Florida, and thats’a if if if, then wouldn’t that really help either Fred or Huck. Last I checked Rudy was not polling well (though there is still a lot of time to turn that around), and with how PISSED everyone in FLA is towards Martinez (got lots of family in FL) I would think McCain is dead in the water, then that really leaves Huck and Fred doesn’t it? And if Fred does well in SC he could also have the wind at his back going into FL. Course that holds true for Huck too.

Weight of Glory on January 9, 2008 at 2:41 PM

He wins Michigan or morphs into the republican version of John Edwards, a rich guy who places but never wins who won’t quit because he’s got nothing better to do. He’s fading fast and knows he has to do something drastic to reverse it. But despite support from Hot Air and NRO, people just don’t go for him.

Rudy is toast. Mmmm… golden brown. Spread some butter and sprinkle a little cinnimon. Makes a nice morning snack. His whole strategy was wrong-headed from the start. A campaign is not a movie laugh. You can’t decide when to “open”. It’s a race from start to finish and for better or worse a candidate can’t choose when to start.

This time next month it’s McCain vs Huckabee.

Vote Sauron 08 on January 9, 2008 at 2:41 PM

I’m a Mitt girl until the end and even then I think he should run as an Independent. I’ll happily leave the GOP for him (actually I’m going to anyway if Huck gets any part of the GOP nod Prez or VP). I’m so sick of the GOP and the state it’s in, we’ve been completely infested with pastors and their flock.

With Huckabee, we are seeing a re-run of what happened when pastors “got out the vote” for Mel Gibson’s The Passion. This grassroots effort is going to get us either the GOP’s first Jimmy Carter or John McCain which is going to look Bob Dole redux.

I won’t cast a vote for either because they aren’t conservatives so the White House might as well go to Hillary or Obama.

Plus I just don’t like that every negative sterotype about the GOP being the party of grumpy old white men and overly religious zealots will come to fruition with Huck or MiCain.

Sorry I’m not staying around to see every far left Daily Kos/Huffington Post/Media Matter group thinkers biased about my party come true.

It will feel good to leave on that principle alone.

sheryl on January 9, 2008 at 2:41 PM

Maybe he’s just discouraged with having to shovel crap every five days about how he loves loves loves those “silver medals”?

I thought he got the gold in Wyoming.

Dusty on January 9, 2008 at 2:42 PM

Riehl and Ace are touting the fact that he’s now fifth nationally in the new Gallup — yes, ‘Heads, behind even Fred — down five points from December.

According to that Gallup poll, isn’t Fred down by at least 2%, too? Before factoring in his taking of only 1.21% of the vote last night?

amerpundit on January 9, 2008 at 2:44 PM

Content warning:

The big A is up to his tricks of being antagonistic and controversial again and fails to see the bigger picture of Mitt’s smart strategy:

now they’re going to focus on earned media. Also known as free media.

Mcguyver on January 9, 2008 at 2:44 PM

Mitt doesnt sell in the south and he knows it. If he isnt trying then he is done

William Amos on January 9, 2008 at 2:45 PM

Rudy isn’t polling well in Florida? Uhh, take another look guys. Real Clear Politics has Rudy up by an average of 5.2 points and the latest poll has him up by 8 points.

froghat on January 9, 2008 at 2:45 PM

now they’re going to focus on earned media. Also known as free media.
Mcguyver on January 9, 2008 at 2:44 PM

So the MSM is gonna get Mitt elected ? heh

William Amos on January 9, 2008 at 2:45 PM

oops, I meant the latest has him up by 5

froghat on January 9, 2008 at 2:46 PM

Jay Nordlinger has it right:

I don’t intend to comment much about presidential politics in today’s column, but let me say this: I find the ganging up on Romney a little unseemly. I mean, not the fact of it, because this is politics, and we’re all grownups (allegedly). I’m talking about the manner and tone. There seems to be some envy about — to go with some other ugly qualities.

I know that a lot of people — anti-Romneyites — are fired up by that line of Huckabee’s: “People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off.” Apparently, he was alluding to Romney. And I find Huckabee’s one of the most depressing lines I have heard in ages — depressing from every point of view.

First, grammatical: They say Bush can’t talk? I thought Huckabee was supposed to be silver-tongued.
Second, philosophical, or political, if you like: Huckabee expressed low populism, or “sheer demagoguery,” as Ronald Reagan used to say. Huckabee’s line could have come out of the mouth of John Edwards, or John Sweeney, or David Bonior. Is this what we want in the Republican party now? Why not have just one big Democratic party?

And third — oh, call it moral: It seems we’re now campaigning on the basis of what the other guy looks like. What do we say about how Huckabee looks? Frankly, I think I would have liked him better when he was fat — he might have been humbler.

If I were a Romney spokesman, I might have responded roughly as follows: “To me, Mitt looks like a guy who can create jobs, create businesses, and create wealth — who can make the economy go, so that people like Mike Huckabee can spend their lives preachin’, gettin’ votes, and taxing people.”

It seems that there is a fair amount of resentment of Romney — for his wealth, success, etc. For the whole package he represents. And is there a worse human trait than resentment or envy? I also might note that I hear a fair amount of denigration of Romney’s business background — I mean, from Republicans. Which is terribly odd and dispiriting.

Romney has his faults, heaven knows — for one thing, his shifts in position are disquieting, smacking of opportunism as they do. (Of course, he also might have just changed his mind about some things.) But Republicans should welcome Romney at the highest levels of our politics. Are we so petty and crabbed and hidebound that we can’t make room for someone like him?

Years ago, Thomas Sowell wrote a column that I have never forgotten. He said that liberals field their A team, while conservatives field their B team. What did he mean by that? He meant that the “best and the brightest” of the liberals slaver to enter politics, or journalism, in order to control other people’s lives. But our best and brightest — the Right’s elite — are in the economy, inventing things, establishing businesses, and making the country grow.

Well, here is Romney, a clear member of our A team, who segued from business into politics, and succeeded. He is a mixture of private-sector accomplishment and political accomplishment. So boo, hiss, right? Wouldn’t we rather have our old, familiar pols, who have been in politics for about 8,000 years? When did John McCain start running for president? 1928?
I was reading an AP story yesterday — here — and saw something quite surprising: “millionaire Mitt Romney.” Here is the full sentence: “Among those listening to the affable Arkansas governor were evangelical Christians, who on Thursday night helped propel Huckabee past millionaire Mitt Romney to win the race’s first test of strength, the Iowa caucuses.”

So that’s how he’s to be described now? “Millionaire Romney,” as though he were merely some rich boy, running on his trust fund — to hell with the Olympics, to hell with Bain Capital, to hell with the governorship of Massachusetts? Was the 2004 Democratic nominee ever described as “millionaire John Kerry”? How about the other candidates this time? How much does Fred Thompson have? Will we ever read “millionaire Fred Thompson”?

One more word about politics, while I’m fulminating: In early days, when Huckabee was a fringe candidate, he was kind of entertaining and endearing — a charming goober, adorning the campaign. Now that he is a major candidate, he is positively unnerving — with his incredibly naïve views about foreign policy. Views not so different from Barack Obama’s.

And we’re in the middle of a war, both the shooting kind and the “cold” kind (if you consider the war against Islamofascism another long, twilight struggle, as I do).

If the two major-party nominees are Obama and Huckabee: What differences will they stress? Their skin color?

sheryl on January 9, 2008 at 2:49 PM

I think that’s a sound strategy for Mitt. He’s got a better shot of taking NV and MI than SC and FL — all of which are winner-take-alls. Silver medals don’t mean anything. If he can take NV and MI, he’ll be in decent shape… espeically if SC and FL split between Huck and Rudy.

Spolitics on January 9, 2008 at 2:49 PM

Mitt’s currently the leader in the convention delegate count. Does that not mean he’s the current leader of the race?

freakagriep on January 9, 2008 at 2:50 PM

Mitt Romney has spent his life getting companies, organizations and state to stop doing what is not working.

Also, if Mitt runs no ads than McCain and Huckabee will have to stop whinning about mean old Mitt and his ads.

EJDolbow on January 9, 2008 at 2:51 PM

Moving to New Zealand might be harder than you think, Darksean. I hear they actually enforce their immigration laws there (novel concept, eh?).

AZCoyote on January 9, 2008 at 2:51 PM

Also, if Mitt runs no ads than McCain and Huckabee will have to stop whinning about mean old Mitt and his ads.

Good point. I don’t think his ads helped him. Going negative was dumb. When people don’t know who you are, you can’t rest your campaign on attacking the other guy. Especially when people don’t know him all that well either (Huck). Mitt helped him gain name recognition.

Spolitics on January 9, 2008 at 2:54 PM

It’s wishful thinking that Mitt’s tired of defending his flip-flops and will bail. Unfortunately he’ll probably stick it out to the end.

nottakingsides on January 9, 2008 at 2:55 PM

Mitt should go on Oprah and give the whole audience free cars.

froghat on January 9, 2008 at 2:55 PM

froghat on January 9, 2008 at 2:46 PM

You’re right he is up by an average of 5 points. But if you look at the chart below that to see how things have trended, you will notice that he has lost ground while Huck has really closed the gap. Most of SW Florida on up to Tampa, along the pan handle and over to the Pac coast and back down through the center to Ocala, would have a rough time voting for Rudy (anecdotal). I would figure he would do best in Orange Co. and along the SE coast. But when I left FL, the immigration thing was very very hot, and I think it will rank higher there than it did in NH, which I think will hurt Rudy in the end. But again, who knows.

Weight of Glory on January 9, 2008 at 2:56 PM

UH that would be atlantic coast…geez

Weight of Glory on January 9, 2008 at 2:56 PM

The scariest thing about those numbers is that John “Big Pharma are the Bad Guys” McCain won on the economy.

Spolitics on January 9, 2008 at 2:57 PM

no more late nights on HA for me!

Weight of Glory on January 9, 2008 at 2:57 PM

Vote Sauron 08 on January 9, 2008 at 2:41 PM

Rudy is toast. Mmmm… golden brown. Spread some butter and sprinkle a little cinnimon

The intraweb is so enriched by you, Vote Sauron 08. Way to go on this whole open registration thing, AP, Bryan, and Michelle.

billy on January 9, 2008 at 2:57 PM

Mitt should go on Oprah and give the whole audience free cars.

Why? Is he rich or something?

Slublog on January 9, 2008 at 2:57 PM

Note that Rudy is now in single digits nationally in the Rasmussen data.

Rass’ polling has always stressed deep base Republicans and does not reflect the party as a whole IMHO. However the latest FL polls has Rudy up by 5, he is a lock in NY, NJ, PENN, CONN. He is up by 9.4 in CA where today I am mailing in my absentee ballot official voting for RUDY — my wife too!!!!

For those of you counting Rudy will still be the delegate leader on 2/6.

tommylotto on January 9, 2008 at 2:58 PM

Mitt came in a strong second in two races and won Wyoming. Why would anybody think that he’s packing it in? Liberal McCain wins a liberal state and now many think that he’s the conservative flavor of the month. I’m definitely missing something.

orlandocajun on January 9, 2008 at 3:00 PM

So, NH just proved once gain all the polls are broken (as if we didn’t learn that in 04) and here are people touting polls… people will never learn.

TheBigOldDog on January 9, 2008 at 3:01 PM

Why? Is he rich or something?

Slublog on January 9, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Slu old friend, haven’t you been paying attention?
Yes he’s rich.
and conservatives are going to make the rich pay.
Pay big.

billy on January 9, 2008 at 3:02 PM

Yeah, I don’t buy this “Mitt’s fading fast argument.” He’s still the clubhouse leader, and the most qualified and accomplished candidate in our field. I have to believe that counts for something.

krabbas on January 9, 2008 at 3:04 PM

tommylotto on January 9, 2008 at 2:58 PM

In all honesty, because I don’t find Rudy all that reprehensible, how does Rudy win middle America in the general when the Democrats start showing commercials of him in drag dancing with the Rockettes?

Like I said, I don’t mind Rudy, I think the economic plan he put out today looks really good on the surface (haven’t had a chance to delve into it yet) just wondering how he can win over middle America with his baggage.

RobTN on January 9, 2008 at 3:08 PM

i think i read something somewhere where he said he wanted to get away from “paid media”, although no ads at all does sound strange

Tacitus on January 9, 2008 at 3:11 PM

In all honesty, because I don’t find Rudy all that reprehensible, how does Rudy win middle America in the general when the Democrats start showing commercials of him in drag dancing with the Rockettes?

Depends. How do his legs look?

Slublog on January 9, 2008 at 3:14 PM

Allah,

You could be right to suggest that Mitt is dead or that Rudy is dead or that Fred is dead (which I actually think is true) but I don’t think it can be true that Mitt is dead AND Rudy is dead AND Fred is dead. For obvious reasons Huck is pretty much unacceptable to conservatives and its hard to believe McCain could continue to be the “frontrunner” without arousing significant emnity from conservatives given his history and temperment. So it is certainly plausible that either Mitt or Rudy or even Fred become the conservative alternative to Huck and McCain.

phronesis on January 9, 2008 at 3:15 PM

No one has this much money to spend on a race…closing in on $200 mil. and this is just the primaries.
He overspent, and has undelivered, maybe the weakest candidate (besides money) in the race.
He has never shown he carries any coattails. I can’t think of one republican candidate he has helped get into office.
Maybe some of you Mitt-wits can name a couple of fellow Republicans he has helped win seats in Mass.

right2bright on January 9, 2008 at 3:17 PM

Maybe he believes (not without reason) that Huck is poised to take these 2 states… so what would be the point in advertising there?

HYTEAndy on January 9, 2008 at 3:23 PM

One has to remember that Iowa, Nevada, Louisiana, Hawaii, and Maine don’t lose any of their delegates because they don’t select their convention delegates until after Feb 5. WY, NH, MI, SC and FL do. The delegates per dollars spent doubles on Feb 5 for primaries. BTW, Mitt got more delegates in WY than McCain got in NH.

But on a state count, Mitt did well in both Iowa and NH — two silvers. He took Wyoming, a gold. He’ll probably take MI, another gold. He might do well in NV, I don’t know. Even a reasonable 3rd in either or both will add delegates and he’ll likely be spending the time and money in the big Feb 5 delegate states where it will really count and the knockout punch will occur for most of the potential nominees.

I don’t see this as an unreasonable strategy. What I am not sure about is if any Feb 5 state primaries are winner-take-all for delegates. Does anyone know?

Dusty on January 9, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Go Fred

MuddlinThru on January 9, 2008 at 3:24 PM

Polls…dose anyone really believe anything associated with any poll? You can make them say whatever you want..As was proven the past five days.

twiggman on January 9, 2008 at 3:26 PM

He’s the classic ‘flash in a pan’. He’s tired of spending his own dough, that’s why he’s rich, he didn’t spend it, til now. He knows people secretly like Fred and are waiting to vote for him . Wait til after ‘Super Tuesday’ then we’ll see who drops out and who’s in.’It ain’t over til it’s over’.

countywolf on January 9, 2008 at 3:27 PM

I don’t see this as an unreasonable strategy. What I am not sure about is if any Feb 5 state primaries are winner-take-all for delegates. Does anyone know?

Maine switched to a caucus this year, so I don’t believe it’s winner-take-all.

Slublog on January 9, 2008 at 3:36 PM

This is unconventional wisdom but I think Mitt still has the best chance to win. Iowa and New Hampshire are almost meaningless in the GOP race. Mitt will win or come close in MI and Nevada. Fred Thompson, McCain, Huckabee will push hard for S. Carolina. Which is why Mitt is not putting all his resources there. If Fred Thompson does not win or barely lose, he will most likely drop out (he has said this). That leaves Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee left to compete with. Giuliani and Huckabee have both kissed McCain’s butt. That makes it hard for them to criticize him. The non-conservative vote will be split between the three in Florida, leaving Mitt looking good as the most conservative candidate. He can win there and if he does, McCain and Huckabee will drop like rocks and the conservative base will unite around Mitt.

poljunkie on January 9, 2008 at 3:37 PM

sheryl on January 9, 2008 at 2:49 PM

What you said! Spot on.

Sugar Land on January 9, 2008 at 3:38 PM

Riehl and Ace are touting the fact that he’s now fifth nationally in the new Gallup — yes, ‘Heads, behind even Fred

Rasmussen (01/09/08)

Huckabee 22
Romney 19
McCain 19
Thompson 12
Giuliani 9

MB4 on January 9, 2008 at 3:40 PM

He knows people secretly like Fred
countywolf on January 9, 2008 at 3:27 PM

He’s keeping the secret very, very well.

billy on January 9, 2008 at 3:41 PM

Polls…dose anyone really believe anything associated with any poll? You can make them say whatever you want..As was proven the past five days.

twiggman on January 9, 2008 at 3:26 PM

If the people who do polls had become Airline pilots or Air traffic controllers, at least 3/4 of all planes taking off would crash.

MB4 on January 9, 2008 at 3:45 PM

I can’t even keep up with what’s happening anymore, I just want Mitt or Fred to win. Or Guliani as last resort. Please?

TheGoblinKing on January 9, 2008 at 3:46 PM

Polls…dose anyone really believe anything associated with any poll? You can make them say whatever you want..As was proven the past five days.

twiggman on January 9, 2008 at 3:26 PM

Exactly…I keep thinking the same thing. The last few election cycles have shown polls not only can be wrong but are used to sway everyone one way or the other. I don’t give a flip about the polls. That is the only reason I can imagine for Huckashmuck continuing to do so well. I watch people like my in-laws, who couldn’t think their way out of a paper bag, who just go with the flow. They follow these stupid polls and what it says everyone else is doing. “Who are you guys interested in and why?” It’s always whoever is leading in the polls, and because that’s who everyone else likes. Well, he seems so popular. People seem to really like that man and listen to what he says.
Yeah, and Hillary showed us she can PMS just like every other woman. So what? That doesn’t do squat for leading the country. People who can’t think get to vote. There is no IQ test for voters. It’s really scary.

mauioriginal on January 9, 2008 at 3:53 PM

Rasmussen has Fred at 12% and I’d say that there is at least 12% of America that is conservative and wants Fred (many more would if Fred could connect).

Romney should drop out, endorse Fred and give the max docnation! ;)

kerrhome on January 9, 2008 at 3:55 PM

[Slublog on January 9, 2008 at 3:36 PM]

Yeah, but I don’t think that caucus necessarily means that primaries are winner-take-all. I was looking around and it seems that proportional delegation of reps to the conventions was put into effect by the rules approved at the 2004 convention.

Wiki has a page tracking results with info on delegate apportionments so far. Mitt’s leading in pledged and total with 30 to Huck’s 21 and McCain’s 10. Fred is in 4th place with 6.

Dusty on January 9, 2008 at 3:56 PM

I live in Georgia near the South Carolina border. We share the same cable stations. The only ads I have seen are Mitt’s. In fact one of his ran almost back to back. He may have run his ads early and is now backing off. Since it is less than a week from the primary, and I have not seen ads from the others, they may not be running very many either.

jeannie on January 9, 2008 at 3:57 PM

I’m a Mitt girl until the end and even then I think he should run as an Independent. I’ll happily leave the GOP for him (actually I’m going to anyway if Huck gets any part of the GOP nod Prez or VP)

I’m with you, Girl!

Are you married?

peacenprosperity on January 9, 2008 at 3:59 PM

Moving to New Zealand might be harder than you think,

Better be well educated at a position that is on their “need” list. That’s how they let people come, they see what their needs are and require any potential emigres to be eduacated and qualified. If they need civil engineers this year, then you better be a civil engineer. If they need pediatricians next year, then you better be a pediatrician or forget it.

peacenprosperity on January 9, 2008 at 4:02 PM

Dusty on January 9, 2008 at 3:56 PM

Yeah, honestly I have no idea how the state GOP is going to apportion delegates.

Slublog on January 9, 2008 at 4:02 PM

In all honesty, because I don’t find Rudy all that reprehensible, how does Rudy win middle America in the general when the Democrats start showing commercials of him in drag dancing with the Rockettes?

Like I said, I don’t mind Rudy, I think the economic plan he put out today looks really good on the surface (haven’t had a chance to delve into it yet) just wondering how he can win over middle America with his baggage.

RobTN on January 9, 2008 at 3:08 PM

Okay Rob in Tennessee, let’s be honest. You admit that he is “not reprehensible.” If he were the nominee, could you vote for him (even knowing there is a youtube video of him getting groped by The Donald)? I think you could. I think everyone could. Rudy fought the five families and won, two of them had contracts out on him and he survived. Rudy took on Wall Street and corrupt mega gazillionaire bond traders and won. Rudy took on ferret owners, and won. Rudy took on Sharpton, and won. Rudy took on squeegie men, and won. Rudy took on the NYT and won. Al Qeada tried to drop 110 floors and 8.6 million square feet of skyscraper on his head and he survived. He plowed through three wives — all of them female. If there is anyone in America that doesn’t need to prove his manhood, it’s Rudy. He is secure enough with that facet of his persona to live with a gay couple after getting booted out by the wife or appear a few times in drag. It is not like he is going to appear at State dinners looking like Monroe (Marilyn that is)!

Seriously, everyone watched him on TV in real time dealing with the greatest crisis this nation has ever faced. Regardless of his weirdness factor, everyone trusts him, because we know he can keep his head while all those around him are loosing theirs…. and he gets results.

tommylotto on January 9, 2008 at 4:03 PM

MI is a three way race, with any outcome possible.

It looks like Michigan is the state for Mitt to bank it on. If he can’t win it outright, he may drop out for the good of, well, other than his family, his finances or the party. He would be betraying his supporters and would be politically dead in politics from that day forward. Lets look at all the people who have endorsed him. If he gives up on them, whew baby, he’ll never get a audience in Washington DC ever again. Alternatively, he may consult with his endorsements before hand and that’ll lead him to the candidate he’ll support if he decides to support anyone.

Above all Mitt is a businessman and he isn’t a coward. If this is a bad investment there is no reason to throw good money after bad. It isn’t like he needs this to fulfill his life. He has a wonderful wife, 5 sons and daughter-in-laws and many grand children.

I do believe, either Rudy or Mitt are the best options for the reps. Fred is done. McCain and Huck are liberals on many issues. Rudy is a liberal too, but I trust him on his word that he will govern as promised when it comes to SCOTUS justices. At this point, that’s all that matters to me.

csdeven on January 9, 2008 at 4:03 PM

kerrhome on January 9, 2008 at 3:55 PM

Actually, I think he can transfer his donations to any other candidate if he drops out with no limitations…I think.

right2bright on January 9, 2008 at 4:10 PM

Well, if he drops out, where does his support go? Ideas???

conservnut on January 9, 2008 at 4:11 PM

What I am not sure about is if any Feb 5 state primaries are winner-take-all for delegates. Does anyone know?

Dusty on January 9, 2008 at 3:23 PM

On February 5th, 982 delegates will be in play. Most importantly, a bloc of 201 winner-take-all delegates will be at stake in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, all states in which Mayor Giuliani has double digit leads.

Missouri will also award 58 winner-take-all delegates. California, Georgia and Illinois will award most of their delegates by Congressional District vote.

I’m telling you, if Rudy just wins in FL before 2/5, he will be in the cat bird seat on 2/6.

tommylotto on January 9, 2008 at 4:12 PM

Another Look At Fred!

Jay on January 9, 2008 at 4:15 PM

How long before McCain starts sinking again?

Jay on January 9, 2008 at 4:17 PM

If I’m Mitt, I’m thinking “Why should I finance this whole thing myself, and take nothing but crap and abuse from these minor league opponents? If that is part of the drill, then people have to step up, and participate in the cause financially,and organizationally, or I’m out” Don’t you think his family feels that way?

kflynn on January 9, 2008 at 4:17 PM

Polls…dose anyone really believe anything associated with any poll? You can make them say whatever you want..As was proven the past five days.

twiggman on January 9, 2008 at 3:26 PM

He Those who controls the spice polls controls the universe.

FloatingRock on January 9, 2008 at 4:19 PM

[tommylotto on January 9, 2008 at 4:12 PM]

Thanks for the info.

Dusty on January 9, 2008 at 4:24 PM

Darn, just found method for apportioning delegates here. It’s listed in the far right column.

Dusty on January 9, 2008 at 4:32 PM

So AP, when Mitt pulls his ads and there are suspicions of him pulling out, it’s “why not take a chance?”

Yet when Fred has to cope with a dirty trick from Mitt’s campaign saying he want to get out of the race, it’s all fine and legit?

Hmmmm . . .

American-Infidels.com on January 9, 2008 at 4:34 PM

Rudy Giuliani is the Real Fiscal Conservative in the Race!

As Chief Executive of America’s largest city, Mayor Rudy Giuliani proposed 64 tax cuts and succeeded 23 times – working with a Democratic City Council and a Democratic State Assembly. By the end of his eight years in office, he had reduced New Yorkers’ tax burden by 19% – down to its lowest level in decades. Not only was this the largest tax reduction of any local or state government in the country in the 1990’s, but Mayor Giuliani delivered more tax relief to his constituents than all of the other Republican candidates combined.

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/article/pr/1140

Chakra Hammer on January 9, 2008 at 4:46 PM

come on Fred! Come on Fred!

spacekicker on January 9, 2008 at 4:52 PM

This is Mitt’s modified “all in.” The law of diminishing returns seems to be kicking in, and Michigan is a good place for Mitt to make a stand.

Mitt will do well, but I have a question: is Michigan’s primary open? If so, I think McCain may win.

The candidates are each working strategy to their best benefit. To me, the ad cut only makes sense in that there are so many contenders and the primaries are so bunched.

Go Fred!

redneck hippie on January 9, 2008 at 4:57 PM

No one’s getting out any time soon. At least not until May 6th, when us Hoosiers finally decide this thing!

Go FRED

sleepy-beans on January 9, 2008 at 4:59 PM

Looks like a smart move by Mitt to me. He has to choose which markets he will be best received by. Michigan and Nevada are his best opportunities next week. Then the week after that he can shift advertising back to Florida.

He can take advantage of the debate tommorrow and public appearanceses to make a showing in South Carolina.

Tim Pancoast on January 9, 2008 at 5:03 PM

Mitt is a great guy, and a good conservative, but I think what the GOP needs is someone who will speak more forcefully to the needs of the conservative base, because everytime that conservatives have won on the outset, so has the GOP, and although some call him lazy, I really feel that Fred Thompson speaks to the conservative base better than anyone else that is running.

Oh, what about Huckabee? Don’t even go there. This man may claim to be a Christian leader, but he is no conservative. He would destroy the Reagan coalition and the Republican party just as fast a McCain would!

ConservativePartyNow on January 9, 2008 at 5:04 PM

sheryl on January 9, 2008 at 2:49 PM

Nice commentary. Well said. The GOP ain’t so G anymore. I’ve said it before on these very pages. The conservative movement is done. No leader. No sustainable good. Done.

Griz on January 9, 2008 at 5:09 PM

1st off I am glad I finally got registered with Hot Air. I simply love this website and all of the folks associated with it, really great job you all do, so hats off to the HA staff and its writers, or bloggers as it may be.

Anyway I like Hunter, Fred, Mitt, and Rudy in the order, I guess I might be able to stomach Huckabee, but I would never vote for McCain. As has been said 1 million times already, he has just been on the wrong side of so many important conservative issues. His recent stint with Global Warming is like icing on a poop cake that is made of one part hobbling free speech, two parts amnesty, with a dash of government run education.

Personally, I prefer my RINO’s in a Zoo or on the Discovery Channel where they can do me or my country no harm.

RINOHunter on January 9, 2008 at 5:31 PM

this make for me to be with the scareds

Drunk Report on January 9, 2008 at 8:18 PM

That Rasmussen poll looks fishy. Fred Thompson at 12 percent? lol

You know that’s pretty much par for the course nationally for Fred. He’s been in that vicinity for a while. It’s not an outlier.

viking999 on January 9, 2008 at 8:56 PM

Cool. One less RINO in the herd.

Go Fred Thompson!

Dave R. on January 9, 2008 at 10:46 PM

Why does Willard Romney not like to be referred to by his legal name? I guess his handlers thought Willard sounds too much like an aristocratic billionaire name.

HaraldHardrada on January 10, 2008 at 1:24 AM

So AP, when Mitt pulls his ads and there are suspicions of him pulling out, it’s “why not take a chance?”

Yet when Fred has to cope with a dirty trick from Mitt’s campaign saying he want to get out of the race, it’s all fine and legit?

Hmmmm . . .

I second that, though the analogy is a little different. Mitt is “known for his money” and had better polling numbers than Fred! nationally at the time.

He probably still has better polling numbers, but I take all polls with a huge grain of salt.

mcrabben7 on January 10, 2008 at 2:37 AM

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