Is Michigan Mitt’s last stand?
posted at 10:01 am on January 9, 2008 by Allahpundit
That’s the buzz this morning but for once Hewitt’s spin is closer to the truth. As Ambinder notes, Romney’s got a devil’s triangle shaping up against him in Michigan: Huck will pull the evangelical social cons, McCain will pull the hawks and the independents (who get to skip the Democratic race because Obama’s not on the ballot), which leaves Mitt with the Fredhead “true conservative” vote. Are there enough of those in Michigan to win? I’m skeptical, but the numbers are amazingly close: If you can believe it, except for one typically crappy ARG outlier poll from September, no GOP candidate has exceeded so much as 30 percent since February. No one’s got even as much as 20 percent in the RCP average, and of the last four polls taken, no one’s topped 21 percent — with each of the big three winning at least one of those polls.
So if Mitt craters, he’s out, right? No, for reasons best explained by this short but shrewd John Ellis column. So long as there are two or more anti-Hucks competing in any primary, they split the vote and give Huckabee a fighting chance to win and build momentum. With his money and organization, Romney may hang on until Super Ultra Mega Tuesday in the hope that he’ll be the only anti-Huck left standing and the base will have no choice but to line up behind him. The problem is that Giuliani’s likely to be left standing too; like Ellis says, Huck may actually want to lose to Rudy in Florida simply to guarantee his participation on Big Tuesday. If all three are still in it come Florida, the pressure on the third-place finisher to get out and make Tuesday a head-to-head to simplify things for anti-Huck voters will be tremendous.
Needless to say, if McCain and Rudy crumble in Florida and we really are left with serial loser Mitt as the Great Hope, it’s going to be an historic fiasco. Exit question: Assuming Mitt does get out, who does he endorse? Huck and McCain seem to hate him and he’s tangled with Rudy in somewhat nasty ways at the debates. He ain’t throwing his endorsement away on ol’ Fred either. Would he politely decline to endorse anyone? Or does he make a deal with the frontrunner for some kind of cabinet position?
Blowback
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Wow. More cross-post attempts at building a case against little old MadisonConservative(sorry csdeven). I’ll go back to my previous label of psychotic.
You whine about not being admired by others as being polite(can’t imagine why). What does that make you?
In other words, you’re calling me stupid because you think I’m stupid. Maybe you should look up “recursion”. Inference over the internet of another person based on comments? Nah, that’s not armchair psychology.
It’s reasonable to assume that exposure is aided by money, and it’s reasonable to assume that exposure helps Vanceone make up their mind. Is it solid proof? No. However, a lot of people here also believe in polls. That takes a lot less inference.
MadisonConservative on January 9, 2008 at 7:05 PM
I need a MadisonConservative eyewash, csdeven earplugs, a Buy Danish boycott, a bnelson44 face mask, a
right2brightnotsobright sunglasses so that I can at least make a Hollowpoint and win the tommylotto tonight.ANY SUGGESTIONS?
Mcguyver on January 9, 2008 at 7:22 PM
Pray to AllahPundit.
MadisonConservative on January 9, 2008 at 7:24 PM
Of course the loonies would vote McCain on handling the economy.
I think you missed the real point here. The anti-war looney/independents who voted for McCain did so because they knew there was going to be war no matter who was elected, as far as electable goes.
But at least with McCain – as stubborn as he is – they knew that they would get some kind of compromised passivity, especially regarding water boarding.
So they voted for McCain because they would get an anti-Bush tax cut, amnesty, no waterboarding, compromise with the Dims on the war strategy.. basically.. a liberal.
That’s why I said:
Are there any questions left about the electorate’s ability to sort through the bullshit?
Mcguyver on January 9, 2008 at 7:43 PM
SECOND LOOK AT ALLAHPUNDIT!
Mcguyver on January 9, 2008 at 7:45 PM
SECOND LOOK AT EYEWASH VIS VI POSTING MY TWO CENTS.
Mcguyver on January 9, 2008 at 7:47 PM
So if someone says the quarterback made a bad throw, you think that person thinks they are better then the quarterback?
So with your brilliant thought process, no one, except if they are superior, can make any comment about someone else’s ability.
With your logic, there would be no coaches, no advisors to presidents, no judges, just a bunch of yes men…oh now I get it…
You know, I was right, you never did make the debate team.
right2bright on January 9, 2008 at 8:21 PM
I don’t understand the pundit’s obsession with saying that Mitt is finished. He has the most delegates thus far and there is this constant drumbeat that he is done. Meanwhile nobody says that about Fred or Rudy and they aren’t doing that hot either. If we end up having to choose between Huckabee and McCain, I am out. Let them lose.
echosyst on January 9, 2008 at 8:28 PM
It’s premium stuff, pal. Accept no substitutes.
MadisonConservative on January 9, 2008 at 8:29 PM
You must be new here…that and other like not2bright have already been used…and used…and used…by people (usually the same two or three) who have no real argument, just insults.
Here try this one, I think it fits you…you, you, poo poo head.
Your type of insult, is the last ditch of a loser striking out. (however, buy danish and vanceone thinks your cool).
*
Odd only Mitt supporters have used that tactic, and one other gal (sometimes I suspect BuyDanish is her), who was banned last year used to do that.
right2bright on January 9, 2008 at 8:29 PM
After your constant and shrill drumbeat of name-calling against your “second choice,” I hope I’m never your second choice for anything.
How many times are you going to say “incompetent” and talk about Delaware? Honestly, at this point it’s not so much an argument as a written form of Tourette’s syndrome. Do you mumble “incompetent Fredhead Delaware” in your sleep?
Calling Fred your second choice reminds of the people who call in to Rush or Sean to call for the impeachment of Bush/Cheny, but start off the call by saying, “I’m a lifelong Republican.” Not convincing.
theregoestheneighborhood on January 9, 2008 at 10:22 PM
What are the rules MadisonC? Can you show them to me? You try a little drive-by shooting, fail miserably, shoot yourself in the foot, and then complain that I refer to it?
I do not give a flip if you are polite (or aren’t) and I could not care less about being “admired by others”.
I do care that commenters who swoop in here like harpies and start “reprimanding” commenters for expressing their thoughts, and call them liars for telling the truth. It’s all very Orwellian, really.
I’m questioning your intellect because you make idiotic statements and draw idiotic conclusions. When someone states that the person they are debating is a poor debater it is fair to infer that they think they are better at it. Is that really too difficult for you?
If I draw the conclusion that you are not the brightest bulb in the shed, it is based on a preponderance of the evidence.
Buy Danish on January 9, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Like you did to me because I said “prick”. Your irony is like BUTTAH.
Actually, it’s fairer to infer that the stater of who has poor debating skills is familiar with someone who has better debating skills, not necessarily themselves. But hey, I’m just an idjut because I don’t shut up and realize that everything you say is right, even when you say something completely different from thread to thread.
You’re questioning my intellect because I’ve pointed out your inconsistencies and your propensity for blurting things out without knowing what you’re talking about, like claiming DS was a Fredhead. Much like BKennedy made the same sort of claim that I was a southerner, he was wrong and made no admission of such. I once admitted my error in inferring that your tone was what it was not. You refused to admit to overreacting. That is because you are a gigantic hypocrite who justifies taking internet comments personally, then admonishes those that do…you admonish others for using personal insults and attacks, and then do so yourself…you tell others not to be silly enough to analyze people by their comments, then speculate on their age and brain cell count…you tell others not to jump into conversations that don’t concern them, while regularly doing it yourself.
You’re a nut, and you’ve gotten off your last one with me. You can try doriangrey and your other obsessions, dragging your petty frustrations from post to post after they tire of your trolling infatuations. I’m finished, honey. Buh bah.
MadisonConservative on January 9, 2008 at 10:52 PM
There’s only one thing worse than having a lot of idiotic opinions, and that would be sharing every one that comes to mind in your first 24 hours at HotAir.
Douche.
Jaibones on January 9, 2008 at 10:58 PM
Kerist. Any more theories, pea brain?
You’ll pardon me if I don’t respond sympathetically to your complaints about “insults”. You fill these pages with malicious, malevolent manifestos day in and day out, insulting not only our intelligence but members of the LDS faith on a regular basis.
If one quarterback tells the other quarterback that he sucks as a quarterback, there might be an analogy here. Which there isn’t, so you have demonstrated once again what a clueless clod you are.
The bottom line is that csdeven cleaned your cuckoo clock today despite any delusions to the contrary.
Buy Danish on January 9, 2008 at 11:00 PM
BTW, if Romney manages to win the Republican nomination, and Hillary and Obama become the Democratic nominees for President/Vice-President, wouldn’t that be really ironic, given that the Mormon church historically was the last bastion of polygamy in the western world, and as recently as 1978 wouldn’t allow black people to be full-fledged members of the LDS church?
Couldn’t you just hear Obama in a debate saying something like, “I appreciate that you’re not a racist, governor, given that just 30 years ago, I would not have been allowed to join your church.”
I don’t think Obama would do that, but I’m quite sure Hillary would work in any subtle digs she could about the polygamy, and what it might suggest about Mitt’s attitude towards women.
But I forget, neither Hillary nor Obama would have to say it. There are plenty of reporters and columnists who would say it for them.
I will pre-concede (is that a word?) that polygamy and segregation are in the past for the LDS, and are not relevant to the campaign. Also pre-conceded: that the LDS abandoned polygamy a long time ago, and that segregation was hardly exclusive to the Mormons.
theregoestheneighborhood on January 9, 2008 at 11:15 PM
You know, I think that might honestly work more against Obama than Mitt, especially to evangelical Dems.
MadisonConservative on January 9, 2008 at 11:17 PM
The threat of backfiring would be very real, especially for Obama. It would almost have to be launched by a third-party.
Of course, if it hasn’t been tried yet during the last generation of racially-divisive politics, maybe it never will be.
theregoestheneighborhood on January 9, 2008 at 11:26 PM
Answer: Hey, God changed his mind. Whatta ya gonna do?
Mojave Mark on January 9, 2008 at 11:31 PM
You’re an Idjit because (among other things) you constantly swoop into the middle of conversations that have nothing to do with you, in that belligerent little pricky way of yours, and more often than not you make a complete fool of yourself.
You make absolutely no sense and you get
hystericalprickly over question marks and apostrophes.No matter how many times something is explained to you you still don’t get it, like, for instance, the fact that I have told you over and over again that it is your hypocrisy and not your language that annoys me.
Take heart though! You and r2b are both belligerent little pricks with little pea brains.
GFY!
Buy Danish on January 9, 2008 at 11:32 PM
Not touching that one….
theregoestheneighborhood on January 9, 2008 at 11:37 PM
Quick! Someone put a Buckeye sweatshirt on Mitt.
ackrite55 on January 9, 2008 at 11:39 PM
Willard Romney is the worst candidate in the GOP bar none! (maybe Paul but close)
HaraldHardrada on January 10, 2008 at 12:59 AM
To which Mitt would probably respond with something subtle about Bill Clinton supporting polygamy, if only he wern’t tied down at the moment.
BKennedy on January 10, 2008 at 5:28 AM
I doubt that (you mean when cs talked insistently about Freds red truck and his kid on the payroll, and now Mitt buys an RV and puts 5 kids on the payroll? Oh yeah, CS is real clever, swallowed his tongue and left HA for a few weeks out of embarrassment, yeah he’s on your team…), but it is obvious you keep score…this isn’t a ball game, it is to more than a debate, a discussion of issues. You show you want to win, and when losing resort to this:
Like I said, you never made the debate team, but I bet you had you mouth washed out with soap…you poo poo head. (and lose some weight, all that anger makes you heavy)
right2bright on January 10, 2008 at 8:28 AM
Ummm. Helllooo.
Who is in the lead with the most delegates thus far???
A fact you will NEVER hear in the news… why? Because big news corporations WANT AMNESTY passed. That’s what it’s all about this year.
They will never say it. But that’s it.
stenwin77 on January 10, 2008 at 8:47 AM
I didn’t clean your clock, you cleaned your own clock when you accused a fellow HA member of being bought off and then provided no proof to back up your claim.
Issues indeed.
csdeven on January 10, 2008 at 9:26 AM
John Kerry endorses the Messiah.
Breaking from Fox news.
csdeven on January 10, 2008 at 9:26 AM
Rambling bloviators who can’t string a coherent sentence together don’t win debates.
Actually I learned the phrase “belligerent little prick” from your buddy MadisonC and he insists it’s not a profanity, so take it up with him.
It was a T.K.O.
Buy Danish on January 10, 2008 at 11:14 AM
Heh.
csdeven on January 10, 2008 at 11:33 AM
I’m encouraging all my friends to go to the Democratic primaries and vote for Mike Gravel.
OneGyT on January 10, 2008 at 11:54 AM
He can and probably will lose michigan only because of there not being a democrat besides hillary on the freaking ballot
he will still be around after that and not suffer much aside from media ridicule
Drunk Report on January 10, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Oh, that’s what you two love birds are talking about? That I said Mitt is buying votes by spending a record amount, and you take offense to that…well you sure tko’d me on that, oh yeah…the funny thing is that remark was toward someone else, CSDeven just jumped in because he thinks Mitt is God, and you can’t diss your God…is Mitts kids on his payroll still?
Record spending—buying votes, what happened to your “inference law”? Buy Danish
And BuyDanish, learn to be civil…you will be banned for using this as your personal vendetta blog. You hijack the posting, by posting filthy remarks that have nothing to do with subject. Stick with the subject, and cut out the personal attacks, I am telling you they are adding weight to you…it is heavy to carry all of that anger.
*
Any response to Mitt buying an RV instead of a red truck? Hmmmmm?
Move on kids, there is enough excellent posting without you guys gumming up the system with filth and lies.
right2bright on January 10, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Bet the pickup gets better gas mileage…
SECOND LOOK AT ECO-FRIENDLY FRED!
MadisonConservative on January 10, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Johnny said it, so I can say it too…That is your defense? Brilliant, just brilliant…a new low for HotAir. He said, so I can say it.
*
And he ain’t my buddy, when he and I don’t agree, we will debate…but we won’t take it personally…really, look at yourself, your gaining weight from carrying all of that anger, it is weighing heavy on your soul.
But then, with those postings, and cleansing your soul…you may end up being the Biggest Loser.
right2bright on January 10, 2008 at 1:12 PM
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